智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，考虑股权激励费用计入下调思摩尔国际(06969)2025年归母净利润 预测20%至10.5亿元(对应股权激励费用调整后归母净利润同比持平)，考虑HNB烟支规模化出货带动业 绩释放，上调2026年归母净利润预测11%至18.8亿元，当前股价对应2026年47倍P/E。维持跑赢行业评 级，考虑市场风险偏好调整维持目标价23港元不变，对应2026年69倍P/E(对应2026年0.88倍PEG)，有 46%上行空间。 3Q25收入具体看，1)HNB：英美烟草Glo Hilo目前已在日本、波兰进行全面销售，该行认为Glo Hilo口 味还原度、加热速度及品牌形象均处行业第一梯队，近期终端动销节奏整体积极，加热器具率先出货有 望贡献收入;2)雾化电子烟：该行预计欧洲一次性禁令下，公司合作中小品牌差异化合规产品销售积 极，有望带动欧洲业务营收延续快增;美国监管强化下订单有望相对稳健;3)APV：开放式自有品牌全球 份额领先，该行判断3Q25同比持续增长。 股权激励费用分摊影响短期盈利能力，研发投入持续高位 短期看，该行预计欧洲雾化电子烟中小客户订单快增、HNB加热器具前期销售下，公司短期 ...

Core Viewpoint - Smoore International (06969) reported significant revenue growth in Q3 2025, reaching 4.197 billion yuan, a 27.2% year-on-year increase, but faced declining profitability with a net profit of 317 million yuan, down 16.4% year-on-year [1][10] Revenue Performance - The company achieved a record high quarterly revenue, with total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 at 10.21 billion yuan, up 21.8% year-on-year [1] - Revenue growth was primarily driven by the enterprise client business and proprietary brand business, with overseas markets, particularly Europe and the US, contributing over 97% of revenue [1][4] Business Segments - Smoore International operates two main business segments: enterprise client business and proprietary brand business, both focusing on overseas markets, especially Europe [4] - The enterprise client business generated 2.734 billion yuan in Europe and other countries in the first half of 2025, a 38% increase, accounting for 57.7% of this segment's revenue [4] - The proprietary brand business saw revenue of 1.07 billion yuan in Europe and other countries, a 15.1% increase, contributing 84% of its segment revenue [4][5] Market Strategy - The company shifted its market strategy post-2022, focusing on overseas expansion after facing declines due to pandemic-related supply chain issues and domestic regulatory challenges [2] - The US and China markets showed weaker performance, with a 6.7% decline in the US proprietary brand revenue and only 0.5% revenue contribution from China [5] Research and Development - Smoore International invested heavily in R&D, with total R&D expenditure of 722 million yuan in the first half of 2025, focusing on electronic nicotine delivery systems [6][8] - The company holds a significant number of patents, with 839 new applications globally, ensuring a competitive edge in the electronic vaporization market [8] Profitability Challenges - The company's profitability is under pressure, with net profit margins declining from 20.67% in 2022 to 7.92% in the first three quarters of 2025 [9] - Increased R&D and operational costs have led to a rise in expense ratios, impacting overall profitability despite revenue growth [9] Market Outlook - Analysts have mixed views on Smoore International's future, with some predicting revenue growth driven by electronic cigarette sales but cautioning about declining net profits due to rising costs [10] - The company's growth potential hinges on regulatory conditions in key markets, with expectations for profitability to improve as overseas markets and new product lines continue to develop [10]

Core Viewpoint - Smoore International (06969) reported significant revenue growth in Q3 2025, reaching 4.197 billion yuan, a 27.2% year-on-year increase, but faced declining profitability with a net profit of 317 million yuan, down 16.4% year-on-year [1][11] Revenue Performance - The company achieved a record high quarterly revenue, with total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 at 10.21 billion yuan, up 21.8% year-on-year [1] - Revenue growth was primarily driven by the enterprise client business and proprietary brand business, with overseas markets, particularly Europe and the US, contributing over 97% of revenue [1][5] Profitability Challenges - Despite revenue growth, net profit has declined for four consecutive years, with a net profit margin dropping to 7.92% in the first three quarters of 2025 [1][10] - The gross margin has also decreased from 43.3% in 2022 to 37.3% in the first half of 2025, indicating pressure on profitability [10] Business Segments - The company operates two main business segments: enterprise client business and proprietary brand business, both focusing on overseas markets, especially Europe [5][6] - The enterprise client business generated 2.734 billion yuan in Europe and other countries in the first half of 2025, a 38% increase, accounting for 57.7% of this segment's revenue [5] - The proprietary brand business saw revenue of 1.07 billion yuan in Europe and other countries, a 15.1% increase, contributing 84% of its segment revenue [5] Research and Development - Smoore International has invested heavily in R&D, with total R&D expenditure of 722 million yuan in the first half of 2025, focusing on electronic nicotine delivery systems [7][9] - The company holds a significant number of patents, with 839 new patent applications globally, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [9] Market Outlook - The company has shifted its market strategy post-2022, focusing on overseas expansion to recover from previous declines in revenue [2][11] - Despite challenges in the US and China markets, the company anticipates continued high growth in Europe and other international markets [6][11] Investment Sentiment - Analysts have mixed views on Smoore International, with some predicting revenue growth driven by electronic cigarette sales but cautioning about rising costs and declining net profit [11] - Others remain optimistic about the company's potential for recovery and growth, particularly in the HNB product line [11]

国金证券发布研报称，维持思摩尔国际(06969)"买入"评级，预计公司2025-2027年EPS分别为 0.22/0.39/0.59元，当前股价对应PE分别为67/37/25倍。10月12日，公司发布2025Q3财务更新公告。 2025Q1-Q3，公司实现营收102.10亿元，同比+21.8%，实现净利润/调整后净利润(扣除股权激励费用影 响)8.09/11.82亿元，同比-23.8%/+0.1%。其中25Q3公司实现营收41.97亿元，同比+27.2%，实现净利润/ 调整后净利润3.17/4.44亿元，同比-16.4%/+4.0%。 国金证券主要观点如下： HNB业务预计收入贡献显著，雾化业务延续改善态势 25Q3公司调整后净利润同比+4.0%至4.44亿元，调整后净利率为10.6%，较24Q3的11.5%下降1.0%。利 润率虽同比下降，但无需担忧，整体业绩仍较优，并且后续利润弹性值得期待，主因：1)HNB业务发展 初期以低毛利率的烟具销售为主，预计后续随着烟弹复购逐步起量叠加规模效应显现，HNB业务盈利 能力将显著抬升。2)预计公司医疗雾化等领域的研发投入仍在加大。近期公司子公司的仿制药简略新药 申请已 ...

调整后净利已恢复增长态势，后续利润弹性可期 25Q3公司调整后净利润同比+4.0%至4.44亿元，调整后净利率为10.6%，较24Q3的11.5%下降1.0%。利 润率虽同比下降，但无需担忧，整体业绩仍较优，并且后续利润弹性值得期待，主因：1)HNB业务发展 初期以低毛利率的烟具销售为主，预计后续随着烟弹复购逐步起量叠加规模效应显现，HNB业务盈利 能力将显著抬升。2)预计公司医疗雾化等领域的研发投入仍在加大。近期公司子公司的仿制药简略新药 申请已被FDA受理，公司医疗雾化业务取得阶段性进展，后续有望逐步开始实质性贡献。 欧美雾化市场扩容&HNB加速贡献业绩增量，长期增长逻辑正逐步兑现，把握布局机遇 国金证券主要观点如下： HNB业务预计收入贡献显著，雾化业务延续改善态势 得益于HNB产品hilo上市开始贡献营收增量以及欧美市场对非法产品监管力度不断强化，公司HNB及雾 化业务营收环比及同比均实现较优增长。分业务看：1)HNB业务，9月以来hilo逐步在日本及波兰全面上 市，依托其优异的产品力，整体销售较优，预计25Q3公司HNB业务收入增量贡献显著。2)雾化电子烟 业务，预计25Q3公司该业务整体营收实现双 ...

欧美雾化市场扩容&HNB 加速贡献业绩增量，长期增长逻辑正逐步兑现，把握布局机遇。展望后续， 欧美合法雾化市场规模扩容已是大势所趋，并且HNB 产品glo hilo 目前在波兰市场已逐步开始促销，在 产品力优异叠加营销逐步跟进的背景下，后续该产品全球起量可期，HNB 业务成长空间可期。整体来 看，延续此前观点，公司作为唯一一家深度切入海外烟草巨头雾化+HNB 两大品类供应链的上市企业， 后续成长具备确定性。 盈利预测、估值与评级 机构：国金证券 研究员：张杨桓/赵中平 业绩简评 10 月12 日，公司发布2025Q3 财务更新公告。2025Q1-Q3，公司实现营收102.10 亿元，同比+21.8%，实 现净利润/调整后净利润（扣除股权激励费用影响）8.09/11.82 亿元，同比-23.8%/+0.1%。其中25Q3 公 司实现营收41.97 亿元，同比+27.2%，实现净利润/调整后净利润3.17/4.44 亿元，同比-16.4%/+4.0%。 经营分析 HNB 业务预计收入贡献显著，雾化业务延续改善态势。得益于HNB产品hilo 上市开始贡献营收增量以 及欧美市场对非法产品监管力度不断强化，公司HNB ...

Group 1 - The company reported Q3 2025 financial data, with revenue of 4.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%, and adjusted profit of 444 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [1] - HNB is expected to become a major growth driver, with significant revenue increase anticipated due to the pre-production nature and the full rollout of hilo in Japan, leading to substantial sequential growth in sales [1] - The ODM+ strategy has been further validated, with satisfactory growth from new product iterations, and overall growth expected to exceed double digits as new compliant products are launched [1] Group 2 - Emerging businesses are expected to elevate the company's valuation, with the subsidiary successfully submitting an ANDA for Breo Ellipta, which is used for asthma and COPD treatment, indicating potential for further valuation uplift [1] - The company anticipates that HNB will become a primary source of profit release by 2026, with traditional vaping business valuation solidifying [2] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 14.2 billion, 16.9 billion, and 19.5 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 1.395 billion, 1.898 billion, and 2.368 billion yuan, leading to PE ratios of 64.53x, 47.44x, and 38.02x respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

思摩尔国际 20251013 摘要 思摩尔国际三季度收入增长 27.5%，经调整利润环比增长 4.8%，主要 受益于 HNB 产品强劲出货和欧洲市场雾化烟业务增长，特别是欧洲市场 因一次性电子烟禁令而推出新产品，增速远超整体水平。 欧洲市场因监管变化表现突出，美国市场虽恢复较慢，但合规产品监管 趋严为思摩尔合作客户（如英美烟草 VUSE 品牌）带来机会，公司正积 极抢占市场份额。 思摩尔通过加大渠道覆盖和本土化经营，提升自由品牌 WAPER 的市场 份额，虽然自由品牌业务弹性有限，但整体行业已从下滑转为正增长， 欧洲市场表现尤为亮眼。 思摩尔正逐步进入更多 HNB 核心市场，如波兰和意大利，预计 HNB 业 务将从 0 到 1 阶段迈向 1 到 10 阶段。公司定位为技术平台，为包括英 美烟草在内的多家烟草公司提供差异化解决方案。 公司预计 2026 年及以后盈利能力将逐步提升，目前重点是提升收入指 标，包括 HNB 业务的大规模销售铺货，以及通过抢占监管变化带来的新 份额来提升整体盈利水平。 Q&A 思摩尔国际在 2025 年第三季度的业绩表现如何？ 思摩尔与英美烟草的合作是当前阶段最值得期待的增长点，HN ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue and profit increase in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 4.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 27.5%, and adjusted profit of 444 million yuan, up 4.8% year-on-year [7] - The HNB (Heat Not Burn) segment is expected to become a major growth driver, with substantial sales growth anticipated in Japan and Europe [7] - The ODM+ strategy has shown satisfactory growth due to successful product iterations, with overall growth expected to exceed double digits [7] - The valuation of the company is expected to rise with the introduction of new compliant products and the recent FDA acceptance of a generic drug application for Breo® Ellipta® [7] - The company forecasts revenues of 14.2 billion, 16.9 billion, and 19.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.395 billion, 1.898 billion, and 2.368 billion yuan [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 11,168 million yuan in 2023, 11,799 million yuan in 2024, 14,200 million yuan in 2025, 16,900 million yuan in 2026, and 19,500 million yuan in 2027, with a revenue growth rate of 20.35% in 2025 [6][8] - The net profit forecast shows a decline in 2024 to 1,303 million yuan, followed by a recovery to 1,395 million yuan in 2025, and further growth to 1,898 million yuan in 2026 and 2,368 million yuan in 2027 [6][8] - The company's EPS is projected to be 0.23 yuan in 2025, 0.31 yuan in 2026, and 0.38 yuan in 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 64.53x, 47.44x, and 38.02x [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.21 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.8%. However, net profit decreased by 23.8% to 809 million yuan, while adjusted net profit remained stable with a slight increase of 0.1% to 1.182 billion yuan [2][3]. - The HNB (Heated Not Burned) business is expected to significantly contribute to revenue, with the launch of the hilo product in Japan and Poland driving sales growth. The company anticipates double-digit growth in its vaping business, benefiting from regulatory changes in Europe and the U.S. [2][3]. - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 4.0% to 444 million yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 10.6%, slightly down from 11.5% in Q3 2024. Despite the decline in profit margin, the overall performance remains strong, with future profit elasticity expected due to the anticipated growth in HNB product sales and ongoing investments in medical vaping [3]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts EPS (Earnings Per Share) of 0.22, 0.39, and 0.59 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 67, 37, and 25 times [4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 14.382 billion, 17.486 billion, and 20.589 billion yuan, with growth rates of 21.9%, 21.6%, and 17.7% respectively. Net profit is expected to recover, with growth rates of 3.0%, 78.1%, and 52.2% for the same period [9].