Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper: LME has a delivery risk, and copper prices may rise in the short term. The borrow strategy for copper continues to be held, and options are on hold [2][5]. - Alumina: Alumina supply increases, spot trading weakens, and prices are expected to approach the cash cost of high - cost capacity and then fluctuate. If the resumption of production capacity expands further, prices will face more pressure. Currently, hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [7][9][11]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: Entering June, the market focuses on the US tariff policy. With domestic aluminum ingot inventories at a low level, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [15][18]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The first - day closing price of cast aluminum alloy is near the spot price. In the short term, the far - month contract is expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [20][23]. - Zinc: Domestic zinc supply shows signs of improvement, and downstream demand is weak. Zinc prices are expected to decline as inventories accumulate. Profitable short positions should continue to be held, and a wait - and - see attitude should be taken for arbitrage and options [25][26][27]. - Lead: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [31][33][34]. - Nickel: The macro situation is complex, and the supply - demand pattern of nickel is weak. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate. A range - trading strategy can be adopted, with a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and a consideration of a range - selling strategy for options [35][43][44]. - Stainless Steel: Stainless steel prices break through the shock range and turn weak. Attention should be paid to when NPI reduces production and prices. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [48][51][52]. - Tin: The supply of tin ore has not been realized, and short - term tin prices may have a limited downside. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [55][59][60]. - Industrial Silicon: In June, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are basically balanced, but the industry has high inventory. Short positions can be arranged above 7500 yuan/ton. Hold Si2511 and Si2512 reverse spreads and hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [61][63][64]. - Polysilicon: Short - term polysilicon prices are still weak, and the PS2507 contract can gradually take profit and exit. Reverse spreads can be held for far - month contracts, and a wait - and - see attitude should be taken for options [67][69][70]. - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate prices have rebounded, but the fundamentals have not improved. Short - selling on rebounds is recommended, and selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [73][75][76]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2507 contract closed at 78,880 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The Shanghai Copper index increased its positions by 11,993 lots to 577,700 lots. Spot copper prices were high, suppressing downstream procurement [2]. - **Important Information**: A copper smelter in Namibia suspended operations due to a shortage of copper concentrates. In May 2025, the production of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, and copper strips decreased to varying degrees [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: China's May exports slowed down, mainly due to the drag of exports to the US. The LME inventory continued to decline, and the delivery risk increased [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: LME has a delivery risk, and copper prices may rise in the short term. The borrow strategy continues to be held, and options are on hold [2][5]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2509 contract fell 9 yuan/ton to 2886 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 6029 lots. Spot prices in most regions were stable, with a decline in Xinjiang [7]. - **Related Information**: As of last Friday, the national alumina production capacity was 112.42 million tons, with an operating capacity of 90.65 million tons. The inventory decreased by 2.9 million tons [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: The resumption of production capacity and new production capacity led to an increase in alumina supply, and prices are expected to approach the cash cost of high - cost capacity [9][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Alumina supply increases, and prices are expected to decline. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [12][13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract fell 25 yuan/ton to 19,980 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 8696 lots. Spot prices in major regions declined [15]. - **Related Information**: In May 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year. On June 10, the inventory of major markets decreased by 0.1 million tons [15][16]. - **Trading Logic**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations continue. The increase in US steel and aluminum tariffs has limited impact on absolute prices. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories are rapidly decreasing [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy was listed today. The AD2511 contract opened at 19,400 yuan/ton and closed at 19,190 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some regions were stable, with a decline in the southwest [20]. - **Related Information**: In May 2025, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased year - on - year, and the industry profit gradually narrowed. The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [20][21]. - **Trading Logic**: The raw material supply is tight, and the market is in the off - season. The supply of alloy ingots is sufficient, and the demand is weak [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: The far - month contract is expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [23]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2507 contract fell 1.27% to 21,845 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 0.79 million lots. Spot trading was weak, and the increase in premiums was limited [25]. - **Related Information**: As of June 9, the domestic zinc ingot inventory increased. The arrival of goods in Shanghai and Tianjin increased, and downstream consumption weakened [25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of zinc improves, and downstream demand is weak. Zinc prices are expected to decline as inventories accumulate [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: Profitable short positions continue to be held. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [27][29]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2507 contract rose 0.9% to 16,880 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 6808 lots. Spot trading was light [31]. - **Related Information**: As of June 9, the social inventory of lead ingots increased compared with June 3. A large - scale recycled lead smelter in the northwest postponed its resumption of production [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [34][37]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel, NI2507, fell 1300 to 121,390 yuan/ton, and the index positions increased by 5664 lots. Spot premiums were stable [35][36]. - **Related Information**: An ITSS nickel - iron plant's 14 furnace resumed production. A Swedish battery manufacturer may stop production. Indonesia revoked the mining licenses of four nickel - mining companies [40][41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro situation is complex, and the supply - demand pattern of nickel is weak [43]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a range - trading strategy, hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage, and consider a range - selling strategy for options [44][45][46]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel, SS2507, fell 195 to 12,435 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 43,534 lots. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were reported [48]. - **Important Information**: Indian stainless - steel enterprises face import pressure and plan to submit an anti - dumping investigation application. A stainless - steel project in Fujian is expected to be completed in mid - August [49][51]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply pressure of stainless steel is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The raw material end provides cost support [51]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stainless steel prices turn weak. Attention should be paid to when NPI reduces production and prices. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [52][53]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin, 2507, closed at 263,420 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan/ton or 0.21%. Spot trading was light [55]. - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations continued. In May, CPI and PPI decreased [57][58]. - **Logic Analysis**: African tin mines are gradually resuming production, but the supply has not been realized. The demand is in the off - season, and tin prices are driven by macro sentiment [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply of tin ore has not been realized, and short - term tin prices may have a limited downside. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 7415 yuan/ton, up 0.82%. Spot prices were stable, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [61]. - **Related Information**: Shaanxi plans to adjust the time - of - use electricity price policy [62]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: In June, the demand for industrial silicon increased, and the supply also increased. The industry inventory was high, and the profit was low [63]. - **Strategy**: Arrange short positions above 7500 yuan/ton. Hold Si2511 and Si2512 reverse spreads and hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [64][66]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 33,955 yuan/ton, down 0.83%. Spot prices were stable [67]. - **Related Information**: Zhejiang encourages virtual power plants and user - side energy storage to participate in response [68]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: In June, the production of polysilicon increased, and the inventory decreased. Downstream prices were under pressure, and short - term polysilicon prices were weak [69]. - **Strategy**: Gradually take profit and exit the PS2507 contract below 34,000 yuan/ton. Hold a wait - and - see attitude for options and hold reverse spreads for far - month contracts [69][70]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate, 2507, rose 100 to 60,760 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 7341 lots. Spot prices increased [73]. - **Important Information**: In May, the sales of new - energy passenger vehicles increased [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: Lithium carbonate prices rebounded, but the fundamentals have not improved. The inventory accumulation expectation is strong [75]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell on rebounds, do not buy at the bottom. Sell out - of - the - money call options. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [76][77][78].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices have rebounded mainly due to the easing of tariff attitudes and strong support from the spot end, but the sustainability of consumption remains to be observed. Near the May Day holiday, it is recommended to wait and see [2][3][7]. - Alumina prices have continued to decline, leading to an expansion of industry losses. The short - term market situation has alleviated the oversupply pattern, but the price is still under pressure. It is recommended to wait for the price to rebound and then short [10][14][15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is necessary to pay attention to changes in tariff policies and domestic demand - boosting policies [19][23][24]. - Zinc prices may rebound in the short term due to overseas zinc mine shutdown news, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [27][30][31]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term range, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [34][35][37]. - Nickel prices follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the short term and should be shorted on rebounds in the medium term [42][44][45]. - Stainless steel prices follow nickel prices and macro - changes in the short term and may decline in the medium term if the global economy enters a recession [47][49][50]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for options [53][58][59]. - Industrial silicon prices are under pressure due to high inventory. Even if there is a rebound, it is an opportunity to short [61][64][65]. - Polysilicon 2506 contract will follow the delivery logic, and the price will be repaired upwards. It is recommended to go long on PS2506 and short on PS2511 for arbitrage [66][68][69]. - Lithium carbonate prices are recommended to be shorted on rebounds, hold put ratio options, and wait and see for arbitrage [70][72][75]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Copper 2505 contract closed at 77,600 yuan, a decrease of 0.5%. The Shanghai Copper Index increased its positions by 4,180 lots to 534,100 lots. The spot copper price fluctuated downward, and the downstream demand for receiving goods weakened [2]. - **Important Information**: As of April 24, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 14,800 tons to 181,700 tons compared with Monday, and decreased by 51,700 tons compared with last Thursday. Canadian miner Teck Resources' copper sales increased in Q1, and Anglo American's copper production decreased in Q1, but both maintained their annual production guidance [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of copper ore is tight, processing fees are declining, and the price of sulfuric acid is falling. The supply of scrap copper has increased after the price rebound, and the downstream consumption has weakened, but the inventory is low, and there is restocking demand before May Day [3][6]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [7][12]. Alumina - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Alumina 2505 contract increased by 35 yuan/ton to 2,847 yuan/ton, and the positions decreased by 16,659 lots to 381,200 lots. The spot price increased slightly [9]. - **Related Information**: A large - scale alumina enterprise in Shandong completed the overhaul of a 1 - million - ton production line, and the 2.5 - million - ton old production line will be shut down. As of April 24, the national alumina inventory decreased by 26,000 tons to 3.423 million tons [10][11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in alumina prices has led to an expansion of industry losses. The short - term market situation has alleviated the oversupply pattern, but the price is still under pressure due to factors such as new production capacity and high inventory [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait for the price to rebound and then short for unilateral trading, and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [15][12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract closed at 19,930 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan/ton, and the positions increased by 8,103 lots to 536,500 lots. The spot price increased [18]. - **Related Information**: Trump said he might "significantly reduce" tariffs on China, but there is no actual negotiation. The US 4 - month Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly expanded, and the aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories decreased [19][22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The weighted starting rate of aluminum processing has continued to decline, but the inventory is low. The import of aluminum ingots has increased, and the annual supply - demand is expected to be in surplus [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [24]. Zinc - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Zinc 2506 increased by 0.78% to 22,590 yuan/ton, and the positions of the Shanghai Zinc Index decreased by 4,124 lots to 231,400 lots. The spot price in Shanghai increased, but the downstream procurement was weak [26]. - **Related Information**: As of April 24, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 14,200 tons to 85,800 tons. Boliden's zinc concentrate production in Q1 increased, and Newmont's decreased [27][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas zinc mines have shut down, which may drive zinc prices to rebound. In April - May, domestic smelters have both maintenance and production increases, and the consumption is about to enter the off - season [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Zinc prices may rebound in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [31]. Lead - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Lead 2506 increased by 0.41% to 16,940 yuan/ton, and the positions of the Shanghai Lead Index decreased by 1,218 lots to 72,200 lots. The spot price increased slightly, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [33]. - **Related Information**: A regenerated lead smelter in the northwest shut down due to equipment failure, and a smelter in the south began lead - zinc smelting maintenance [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The waste battery recycling is weak, the regenerated lead smelting is in a loss state, and the lead - acid battery enterprises will stock up before the holiday, which will support the lead price [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term range. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [37]. Nickel - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Nickel NI2506 decreased by 130 to 125,770 yuan/ton, and the index positions increased by 3,012 lots. The spot premium decreased, and the sulfuric acid nickel price increased [39]. - **Related Information**: The global public debt is expected to exceed the level during the COVID - 19 period. Indonesia's "Titan Project" will continue, and Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt postponed the commissioning of its nickel smelting project [40][41]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - sentiment fluctuates, the supply of raw materials is gradually abundant, and the medium - term supply - demand is turning to be loose [42][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds in the medium term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [45]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: On April 24, the main SS2506 contract increased by 15 to 12,780 yuan/ton, and the index positions decreased by 2,661 lots. The spot price of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel is given [47]. - **Related Information**: As of April 24, the national mainstream stainless steel social inventory decreased by 0.78% week - on - week, mainly the 300 - series resources were digested [48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The prices of NPI and chrome ore have stopped rising, the demand is unclear, and the inventory digestion is slow [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow macro - fluctuations in the short term and decline in the medium term. Wait and see for arbitrage [50][51]. Tin - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Tin 2505 contract closed at 259,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 920 yuan/ton or 0.36%. The spot price increased, but the actual transaction was limited [53][55]. - **Related Information**: The Wabang industrial and mineral management bureau held a meeting on the resumption of production in the Manxiang mine, and the cost of low - altitude mines and small and medium - sized concentrators may increase. Elementos released the feasibility study of its Oropesa tin project [56][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US Treasury Secretary's statement released a signal of trade war easing, but the market expectation is still volatile. The short - term tin ore supply is tight, but the annual supply - demand tightness is alleviated [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term. Wait and see for options [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract weakened on April 24, closing at 8,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11%. The spot price of some grades decreased [61]. - **Related Information**: Henan Rongwang New Materials plans to build a 1 - million - ton regenerated industrial silicon project [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory of industrial silicon is high, the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. Even if there is a rebound, it is an opportunity to short [64]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds. Wait and see for options. Participate in the reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [65]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: On April 24, the polysilicon futures main contract rebounded, closing at 39,375 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.26%. The spot price decreased [66]. - **Related Information**: From January to March 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 30.5% year - on - year [67]. - **Logic Analysis**: The prices of components, silicon wafers, and batteries have decreased, and the industry is pessimistic about demand. The 2506 contract will follow the delivery logic [68]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 2506 contract price will be repaired upwards. Go long on PS2506 and short on PS2511 for arbitrage [69]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: On April 24, the main 2507 contract increased by 40 to 68,300 yuan/ton, and the index positions decreased by 1,200 lots. The spot price decreased [70]. - **Related Information**: LG Energy Solution withdrew from an Indonesian project, and a new energy technology company was established. Jilin Province introduced consumption - boosting policies [71]. - **Logic Analysis**: Multiple factors led to a short - term price rebound, but the industrial logic is still bearish. The supply may increase in May, and the price may be under pressure [72]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds, wait and see for arbitrage, and hold put ratio options [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's tariff policies have a significant impact on the global financial market and有色金属 prices. Short - term price fluctuations are intense, and the medium - term supply - demand fundamentals of various metals are still the main factors affecting prices [3][18][37] - For different metals, the report provides corresponding trading strategies based on their supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and policy impacts [3][10][23] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2504 contract closed at 75,400 yuan, up 4.23%, and the Shanghai Copper Index increased its position by 3,919 lots to 543,300 lots. The spot premium decreased [2] - **Important Information**: As of April 10, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased significantly. It is expected that the supply will be tight next week, and the demand increase will be limited, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline [2] - **Logic Analysis**: Trump's tariff suspension announcement led to a short - term rebound in LME copper. The fundamentals show a back structure, and the impact of the trade war on orders may appear after April. It is recommended to short on rebounds [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions and wait and see for arbitrage [3] Alumina - **Market Review**: The Alumina 2505 contract rose 35 yuan/ton to 2,790 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 20,444 lots to 392,500 lots. The spot price decreased in most regions [5] - **Related Information**: Multiple alumina plants are undergoing maintenance, and new production lines are put into operation. The national alumina inventory increased, and the price of imported bauxite decreased [6][7] - **Logic Analysis**: Although the short - term supply - demand surplus situation is alleviated, it is difficult to change in the medium - term. It is recommended to short after the rebound [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Short the price, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy put options [10][11] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2505 contract closed at 19,805 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 19,603 lots to 509,800 lots. The spot price increased [13] - **Related Information**: Trump adjusted the tariff policy, and China counter - imposed tariffs. The US 10 - year Treasury yield soared. The domestic aluminum inventory decreased, and the CPI and PPI data were released [14][16] - **Trading Logic**: Trump's tariff suspension led to a market rebound. The tariff may affect aluminum exports, and the domestic second - quarter demand and inventory will support the basis and month - to - month spread [18] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the short - term due to macro - uncertainty, expect the AL05 - 08 contract spread to widen, and wait and see for options [23] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2505 rose 2.92% to 22,705 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Zinc Index decreased by 17,515 lots to 208,600 lots. The downstream procurement was cautious [21] - **Related Information**: As of April 10, the domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased, and the spot trading improved [22] - **Logic Analysis**: In April, the domestic zinc concentrate supply is still loose, and the smelting plant is profitable. The consumption in April is expected to be boosted [25] - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price runs strongly in the short - term and can be shorted on highs in the long - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [26] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2505 rose 1.97% to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Lead Index decreased by 7,357 lots to 81,800 lots. The spot price increased, and the supply and demand were weak [28] - **Related Information**: As of April 10, the domestic lead ingot inventory decreased [29] - **Logic Analysis**: In April, the supply of primary lead may decrease due to maintenance, and the raw materials of secondary lead smelters are in short supply. The consumption is weak, and attention should be paid to imports [30] - **Trading Strategy**: The lead price may rebound in the short - term, and there is a risk of further decline. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [31][33] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2505 fell 2,690 to 121,600 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 7,287 lots. The spot premium decreased [35] - **Related Information**: The EU announced counter - measures against US tariffs, and the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts is cautious [36] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term raw materials are tight, and the spot premium is strong. The medium - term supply may be in surplus, and it is recommended to short after the rebound [37] - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is weak, wait and see for arbitrage and options [38][39][40] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2505 contract fell 35 to 12,675 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased by 734 lots. The spot price range is 12,700 - 13,200 yuan/ton for cold - rolled and 12,700 - 12,800 yuan/ton for hot - rolled [43] - **Related Information**: The EU may impose import restrictions on stainless steel [44] - **Logic Analysis**: The nickel price is weak, and the stainless steel demand is poor. It is expected to be weak in the short - term [45] - **Trading Strategy**: The price fluctuates weakly, and pay attention to domestic stimulus policies. Wait and see for arbitrage [46][47] Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Tin 2505 contract closed at 257,200 yuan/ton, down 2,220 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 392 lots to 77,660 lots. The spot price decreased [49] - **Related Information**: The Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) is resuming production, and Indonesia may increase the mining royalty rate. The Myanmar earthquake affects the resumption of production [50][52][53] - **Logic Analysis**: The resumption of production in Congo (Kinshasa) affects the price, and the supply in Indonesia and Myanmar is uncertain. The downward space of the tin price may be limited [54] - **Trading Strategy**: The supply contradiction is weakened, and the macro - sentiment improves. Be cautious in operation and wait and see for options [55][56] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract opened slightly higher and fluctuated narrowly, closing at 9,555 yuan/ton. The spot price of some grades decreased [58] - **Related Information**: Trump suspended tariffs on some countries, and a 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project was put into operation [59] - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory is high, and the price is difficult to reverse. The cost decreases, and the short - term price may rebound [60] - **Trading Strategy**: Operate within the range, wait and see for options, and participate in the reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [61] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract opened high and closed low, closing at 42,190 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. The spot price of some enterprises decreased [62] - **Related Information**: Trump suspended tariffs on some countries [63][64] - **Logic Analysis**: In April, the polysilicon industry will reduce inventory. There are risks of insufficient warehouse receipts and falling spot prices. Adjust the trading strategy [65] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long in the short - term and avoid short - selling. Hold the positive arbitrage of PS2506 and PS2511, and hold the reverse arbitrage of PS2511 and PS2512 [66] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2505 contract rose 1,060 to 70,540 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased by 4,973 lots. The spot price increased [67] - **Related Information**: A photovoltaic project was signed [68] - **Logic Analysis**: The trade war may affect lithium battery exports. The supply is expected to increase after May, and the price may fluctuate weakly [69][71] - **Trading Strategy**: Close short positions appropriately below 70,000, enter the market again on rebounds, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [72]