有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/09/30 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/09/23 55 1248 105814 27727 -118.34 228.24 58.0 59.0 -73.11 144975 11875 2025/09/24 40 1273 105814 27419 -693.47 68.15 57.0 59.0 -31.37 144775 11775 2025/09/25 40 2382 105814 27662 -745.90 -123.95 53.0 58.0 -31.55 144425 11400 2025/09/26 -5 2337 98779 26557 -652.74 127.20 53.0 58.0 -38.91 144400 10325 2025/09/29 -15 2077 98779 25603 -898.28 192.48 53.0 57.0 -29.22 143900 9875 变化 -1 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/09/29 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/09/22 70 1351 105814 29893 -157.47 153.75 58.0 59.0 -72.44 145375 12475 2025/09/23 55 1248 105814 27727 -118.34 228.24 58.0 59.0 -73.11 144975 11875 2025/09/24 40 1273 105814 27419 -693.47 68.15 57.0 59.0 -31.37 144775 11775 2025/09/25 40 2382 105814 27662 -745.90 -123.95 53.0 58.0 -31.55 144425 11400 2025/09/26 -5 2337 98779 26557 -652.74 127.20 53.0 58.0 -38.91 144400 10325 变化 - ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by macro - factors and fundamentals. The copper price has corrected due to concerns about the Fed's interest - rate decision, and the supply is tight while the consumption shows a weakening trend [8] - The alumina market has a weakening fundamental trend. The import window has opened narrowly, and the market price reduction may take some time [15] - The electrolytic aluminum market has a tight overseas supply and a marginal recovery in domestic downstream demand. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate and rise after a correction [19][20] - The casting aluminum alloy market is affected by policy changes. The supply is tight, and the alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger [27] - The zinc market has a small reduction in domestic refined zinc supply in September, and the overseas market has some support for the zinc price. The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term [34][39] - The lead market has an upward - moving price center due to downstream pre - holiday stocking. However, there are risks of price decline if the import window opens or the production of recycling enterprises resumes [41] - The nickel market has a relatively optimistic macro - atmosphere, but the LME inventory increase indicates an oversupply of refined nickel in China, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [47] - The stainless - steel market is expected to remain high and oscillate due to the approaching Fed's interest - rate cut, positive domestic policies, and the approaching consumption peak season [53] - The tin market is affected by the Fed's interest - rate decision. The supply is tight, and the demand may be postponed. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [60] - The industrial silicon market may turn into a supply - surplus state if the rumored production resumption occurs. The price is at a relatively low valuation with a bottom support, and long positions can be considered at low prices [67] - The polysilicon market has a long - term upward price trend, but there is a short - term weakening due to the slow progress of capacity integration. The price of the 11 - contract may return to the spot price [72] - The lithium carbonate market has an optimistic atmosphere due to the Fed's interest - rate cut. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the price has support from the spot market [77] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 80,560 yuan/ton, down 0.65%, and the open interest of the Shanghai copper index decreased by 11,113 lots to 510,000 lots. The downstream purchasing sentiment was poor, and the spot premiums in different regions showed different trends [2] - **Important Information**: In August, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. Anglo American and Codelco will jointly operate mines in Chile, and Australia's Orion Minerals may get funds for its project. China's copper product output in August reached a multi - year high [3][4][5] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - factors and supply - demand fundamentals affect the copper price. The supply is tight, and the consumption shows a weakening trend [8] - **Trading Strategy**: The copper price has fallen from a high level. Hold long positions in cross - market arbitrage and wait and see for options [13] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2511 contract fell 48 yuan to 2,916 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed a downward trend [10] - **Related Information**: Guinea's Ningba Mining Company may resume production. The industry's average profit in August increased, and the operating capacity and开工 rate of alumina in China changed [11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: The alumina market has a weakening fundamental trend, and the market price reduction may take some time [15] - **Trading Strategy**: After the "anti - involution" sentiment fades, the price will return to a bearish fundamental pattern [16] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2510 contract fell 80 yuan to 20,910 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased [18] - **Related Information**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 75 basis points by the end of the year. The electrolytic aluminum inventory remained unchanged, and some capacity replacement plans were announced [18] - **Trading Logic**: The market is cautious before the Fed's interest - rate meeting. The overseas supply is tight, and the domestic downstream demand is recovering marginally [19] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and long positions can be considered after a correction. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 70 yuan to 20,435 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions were stable, and the import price decreased [24] - **Related Information**: Policy changes have affected the recycling aluminum industry, and the average cost and profit of the casting aluminum alloy industry in August changed. The casting aluminum alloy futures standard - warehouse receipt generation business will start on September 22 [24][25][26] - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes have affected the supply, and the downstream demand is increasing. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger [27] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and long positions can be considered after a correction. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2511 contract fell 0.13% to 22,285 yuan/ton. The downstream purchasing sentiment was weak, and the spot premium increase was limited [32] - **Related Information**: The construction of the Zhugongtang lead - zinc mine project in Hezhang County has made breakthroughs [33] - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly in September, and the overseas market has some support for the zinc price. Pay attention to the impact of macro - factors [34] - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [39] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2510 contract rose 0.12% to 17,100 yuan/ton. The market purchasing activity increased, and the supply of recycled refined lead was scarce [37] - **Related Information**: The scrap battery price is expected to remain firm, and the lead ingot inventory increased [40] - **Logic Analysis**: The lead price has moved upward due to downstream pre - holiday stocking, but there are risks of price decline [41] - **Trading Strategy**: The Shanghai lead price may operate within a range in the short term, and beware of the price decline risk [42] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai nickel contract NI2511 fell 940 yuan to 121,990 yuan/ton. The spot premiums remained unchanged [43] - **Related Information**: The Tatty nickel mine will restart, and some companies have investment or acquisition plans [44] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - atmosphere is relatively optimistic, but the LME inventory increase indicates an oversupply of refined nickel in China [47] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [48][49][50] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2511 contract fell 120 yuan to 12,935 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [52] - **Important Information**: Taiwan's Yieh United is applying for an anti - dumping investigation, and Japan has launched an anti - dumping investigation on stainless - steel products [53] - **Logic Analysis**: The approaching Fed's interest - rate cut, positive domestic policies, and the approaching consumption peak season support the stainless - steel price [53] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to remain high and oscillate. Wait and see for arbitrage [55] Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 272,540 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton or 0.07%. The spot market atmosphere was average [57] - **Related Information**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates, and the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased in August [58][59] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is tight, and the demand may be postponed. Pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision [60] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate within a range. Wait and see for options [61][62] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main industrial silicon futures contract oscillated strongly and closed at 8,965 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The spot price increased [64][65] - **Related Information**: An important article mentioned measures to promote the construction of a unified national market [66] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The supply and demand situation may change if the rumored production resumption occurs. The price has a bottom support [67] - **Strategy**: Long positions can be considered at low prices [68] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main polysilicon futures contract oscillated narrowly and closed at 53,490 yuan/ton, down 2.09%. The spot price range moved up [69][71] - **Related Information**: The national standard committee has completed the solicitation of opinions on relevant standards [71] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The long - term price trend is upward, but there is a short - term weakening. The 11 - contract price may return to the spot price [72] - **Strategy**: Buy at low prices and set stop - loss and take - profit points. Conduct reverse arbitrage on the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Take profit on selling out - of - the - money put options [73] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract rose 20 yuan to 73,640 yuan/ton. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [74] - **Important Information**: BYD launched a new electric - bus platform, and a new lithium - powder production project was proposed [75] - **Logic Analysis**: The market atmosphere is optimistic due to the Fed's interest - rate cut. The short - term supply and demand are both strong [77] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate and strengthen. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [78][79][80]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market has increased expectations of three interest rate cuts within the year due to the decline in the US PPI to 2.6% and the weakening of the US non - farm payroll data. Copper supply is facing disruptions, and the market is expected to have a pattern of "increased supply and weakened consumption" next week [3][4]. - The alumina supply - demand surplus is becoming more apparent in the spot market, with prices showing a downward trend, but there may be interference from the "anti - involution" sentiment [11][13]. - The aluminum price is supported by the increase in market interest rate cut expectations and the improvement in fundamental factors such as the decrease in ingot casting volume and the reduction in social inventory [17][21]. - The policy adjustments in the recycled aluminum industry have initially shown their impact, but the actual influence is still limited to local areas. The alloy ingot spot price is expected to remain stable and slightly strong [25][29]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of increased social inventory and weak consumption, and the short - term price trend is not clear [34][37]. - The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [41]. - The nickel market is affected by factors such as the increase in LME inventory and high supply growth, and the price has limited upward space and a weak trend [48][49]. - The stainless - steel market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern due to concerns about recession risks and the accumulation of supply pressure [57]. - The tin market has tight ore supply and uncertain demand recovery, and the price may oscillate weakly after the macro - boost sentiment fades [63][66]. - The industrial silicon market is in a tight - balance state, and short - term long positions are recommended [70]. - The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, and short - term light long positions can be considered [75][76]. - The lithium carbonate market has a stage - tight supply - demand situation, and short - term rebounds can be considered for short - selling opportunities [81]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Market Review**: The September 11 closing price of the SHFE copper 2510 contract was 80,130 yuan/ton, up 0.56%, with the index position increasing by 8,972 lots to 494,900 lots. The spot premium in Shanghai rose to 85 yuan/ton, while the premiums in Guangdong and North China decreased [2]. - **Important Information**: Panama is preparing to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals on the possible restart of its closed copper mine. As of September 11, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.26 million tons compared to Monday, but is expected to increase slightly next week [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macroeconomic factors increase interest - rate cut expectations, and the copper supply is affected by production accidents and policies, with tight supply and weakened consumption [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a weak oscillation [14]. 3.2 Alumina - **Market Review**: The price of the alumina 2511 contract increased by 16 yuan to 2,925 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend [8]. - **Relevant Information**: India has postponed the approval of an alumina project, and some electrolytic aluminum enterprises are conducting alumina procurement tenders. The industry's average profit in August was 368 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus is obvious, and prices are falling. The flow of goods from the north to the south is increasing, and the market is in a weak state [11][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: After a correction, consider long positions on dips, conduct inter - market positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [11]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The September 11 closing price of the SHFE aluminum 2510 contract was 20,915 yuan/ton, up 1,305 yuan, with the position increasing by 27,022 lots to 569,300 lots. Spot prices in various regions increased [17]. - **Relevant Information**: The US PPI inflation unexpectedly declined, and China's CPI and PPI data were released. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased, and some overseas projects are progressing [17][18]. - **Trading Logic**: The market's interest - rate cut expectations support the price, and the improvement in fundamentals such as inventory reduction drives the price up [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and long positions can be considered on dips. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [22][23]. 3.4 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The price of the casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 125 yuan to 20,475 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 2,314 lots to 14,012 lots. Spot prices remained stable [25]. - **Relevant Information**: Policy adjustments in the recycled aluminum industry are affecting the market, the industry's profit in August was 104 yuan/ton, and the futures standard - warehouse receipt generation business will start on September 22 [25][26][28]. - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes, tight raw material supply, and increasing downstream demand support the price, and the alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and slightly strong [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly with aluminum, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [30][31]. 3.5 Zinc - **Market Review**: The SHFE zinc 2510 contract rose 0.36% to 22,250 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 970 lots to 222,700 lots. The spot market trading was dull [33]. - **Relevant Information**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and the CZSPT released the reference range for the import zinc concentrate processing fee [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production of smelters may decline slightly in September, consumption is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [35][37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see, and consider short positions on rallies [38]. 3.6 Lead - **Market Review**: The SHFE lead 2510 contract rose 0.36% to 16,900 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 742 lots to 89,300 lots. The spot market had weak demand [39]. - **Relevant Information**: The social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to oscillate [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may move sideways in the short term [42]. 3.7 Nickel - **Market Review**: The SHFE nickel main contract NI2510 rose 130 yuan to 120,620 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 5,412 lots. The premiums of different nickel products changed [43][44]. - **Relevant Information**: SMM expects the Indonesian domestic trade ore price to rise slightly in the second half of September [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The increase in LME inventory and high supply growth limit the upward space of the price [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate widely, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [50][51][52]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2510 contract fell 30 yuan to 12,795 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 1,990 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were reported [54]. - **Relevant Information**: The stainless - steel inventory in Foshan decreased, and a new project's environmental impact report was being approved [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: Concerns about recession risks and supply pressure lead to a wide - range oscillation pattern [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate widely, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage [58][59]. 3.9 Tin - **Market Review**: The main SHFE tin 2510 contract closed at 271,260 yuan/ton, up 1,780 yuan/ton or 0.66%, and the position decreased by 532 lots to 57,067 lots. The spot price rose, but the trading was slow [61]. - **Relevant Information**: US and Chinese economic data were released, and the domestic tin production in August decreased [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: The ore supply is tight, the demand recovery is uncertain, and the price may oscillate weakly after the macro - boost sentiment fades [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may oscillate weakly, and temporarily wait and see for options [66][67]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: Affected by market rumors, the industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated strongly, closing at 8,740 yuan/ton, up 1.94%. The spot price generally rose 100 yuan/ton [68][69]. - **Relevant Information**: The national economic and social development plan implementation report was released [70]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The market is in a tight - balance state, and the price has an upward trend [70]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options, and consider reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts [71]. 3.11 Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract rose slightly, closing at 53,710 yuan/ton, up 1.94%. The spot price remained stable [74]. - **Relevant Information**: The national economic and social development plan implementation report was released, and the demand and supply situation of polysilicon in September was analyzed [75]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, and short - term light long positions can be considered [76]. - **Strategy**: Participate in light long positions with timely stop - loss, conduct reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy wide - straddle options for profit - taking [77]. 3.12 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract rose 880 yuan to 71,000 yuan/ton, the index position decreased by 17,672 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increased by 290 tons to 38,391 tons. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased [78]. - **Relevant Information**: Shanghai's new energy上网电价 reform notice was issued, and the national economic and social development plan implementation report was released [79][80]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand situation is stage - tight, and the price may have a short - term rebound [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds, temporarily wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [80][81][83].

Report Overview - Date: September 4, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy by Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Nickel: The fundamental logic shows a narrow - range oscillation, and news stimulates sentiment [2] - Stainless steel: Steel prices are running in a narrow - range oscillation [2] - Lithium carbonate: Spot trading has improved, but the continuous increase in warehouse receipts suppresses the market [2] - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts are accumulating, and the logic is to short at high prices [2] - Polysilicon: Pay attention to the impact of market news [2] 3. Summaries by Commodity Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,915, down 45 from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 87,549, down 43,080 [5] - The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 121,790, down 740. The trading volume is 125,550, down 3,232 [5] Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [5] - The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF has entered the trial - production stage, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal [6] - Environmental violations were found in Indonesia's IMIP, and possible fines may be imposed [7] - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [7] - The approved RKAB production in Indonesia in 2025 is 3.64 billion tons, higher than in 2024 [7] - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting park has suspended production of all EF lines, expected to affect monthly production by about 1,900 tons of nickel metal [7][8] - Indonesian mining companies must resubmit the 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [8] - A Shandong steel mill has started maintenance, reducing hot - rolled coil supply [8] - The Indonesian president will crack down on illegal mining [9] Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless - steel trend intensity: 0 [10] Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2509 contract is 72,080, down 1,200. The trading volume is 94, down 786. The open interest is 5,571, down 2,123 [11] - The closing price of the 2511 contract is 71,880, down 740. The trading volume is 442,800, down 177,641. The open interest is 346,048, down 2,061 [11] - The warehouse receipt volume is 34,118, up 2,111 [11] Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 75,755 yuan/ton, down 1,631 yuan/ton [12] - In August 2025, Chile's lithium carbonate export volume was 16,900 tons, down 19.2% month - on - month and up 4.9% year - on - year [12] Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 0 [14] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2511 contract is 8,490, up 20. The trading volume is 275,841, down 69,772. The open interest is 279,742, down 1,738 [16] - The closing price of the PS2511 contract is 52,160, up 285. The trading volume is 362,759, down 168,019. The open interest is 149,210, up 3,355 [16] - Industrial silicon social inventory is 54.1 million tons, enterprise inventory is 17.4 million tons, and industry inventory is 71.5 million tons. The futures warehouse receipt inventory is 25.2 million tons [16] - Polysilicon factory inventory is 21.3 million tons [16] Macro and Industry News - Inner Mongolia's Wulatezhongqi plans to invest 4 billion yuan in 2025 and 22 billion yuan during the 15th Five - Year Plan in new energy projects [18] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0; Polysilicon trend intensity: 1 [18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, the market anticipates a Fed rate cut in September due to inflation and consumer sentiment. Despite supply disruptions, overall supply is sufficient, and demand may show a "not-so-peak season" pattern. The price is expected to consolidate at a high level [2][3][5] - For alumina, the price is expected to remain weak as supply stays high, and the surplus will gradually be reflected in social inventory [12][13] - For electrolytic aluminum, the price may be supported by the expected rate cut and the upcoming consumption season. Attention should be paid to inventory trends and overseas project progress [16][20] - For casting aluminum alloy, the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The industry is affected by policy changes, and the supply is tightening [22][27][28] - For zinc, the price may be range-bound and bullish in the short term due to external support and the consumption season, despite the oversupply situation [33][35][36] - For lead, the price may rise slightly as smelter production cuts increase [40][41] - For nickel, the price may fluctuate strongly in the short term due to macro events and potential supply disruptions [44][45][46] - For stainless steel, the price is expected to follow the upward trend of nickel and show a strong oscillation [48][51][52] - For tin, the price may remain volatile as the demand peak season has not materialized [55][58][59] - For industrial silicon, the price may rebound in the short term due to supply - side reform expectations and increased demand from polysilicon [61][63][64] - For polysilicon, the price is expected to rise, and it is recommended to hold long positions and take partial profits near the previous high [67][68][69] - For lithium carbonate, the price may continue to decline in the short term and is waiting for a stabilization signal [70][73][74] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai copper 2510 closed at 79,660 yuan/ton, down 0.06%, and the open interest increased. The spot market was weak due to high prices [2] - **Important Information**: Statements from the US Treasury Secretary, a call from the German economic minister, a production cut at a Chilean mine, and other news [2] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro data strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut. The supply decreased in August and September, but imports increased. Consumption showed a weakening trend [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Consolidate at a high level for single - side trading. Consider cross - market positive arbitrage and cross - month arbitrage. Wait and see for options [5] Alumina - **Market Review**: The futures price of alumina 2510 rose 18 yuan to 3,010 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price declined [7] - **Related Information**: Spot transactions, capacity operation, warehouse receipts, and production cuts due to environmental protection [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: The spot market became more active, but the price is expected to fall. The overall supply is high, and warehouse receipts may increase [12] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be weak for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [13][14] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2510 rose 50 yuan to 20,720 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price increased [16] - **Related Information**: PMI data, inventory changes, and overseas project progress [16][17] - **Trading Logic**: The expected rate cut and inventory trends are the focus. Overseas projects are progressing as planned [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The futures price of casting aluminum alloy 2511 rose 25 yuan to 20,300 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price was stable in most regions [22] - **Related Information**: Policy changes in the recycled aluminum industry, inventory changes, and import/export data [22][23][26] - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes affect the industry, and the supply is tightening. The price may be stable and slightly bullish [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate at a high level for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [25][28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2510 rose 0.59% to 22,325 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot market was average [31] - **Related Information**: Inventory increase and a production cut at a smelter [32] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of zinc concentrate is sufficient, but the refined zinc output may decrease in September. Demand may improve in the consumption season [33][35] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound and bullish in the short term for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36] Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2510 rose 0.06% to 16,850 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot market had low procurement enthusiasm [38] - **Related Information**: Implementation of a new electric bicycle standard [39] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and smelter production cuts are increasing. Demand remains weak [40] - **Trading Strategy**: The price may rise slightly for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [41][42] Nickel - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell 240 to 122,530 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot premium decreased [44] - **Related Information**: Unrest in Indonesia, new RKAB quota regulations, and project awards [45] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro events may increase price volatility. Although the unrest has not affected production, there are potential risks [45] - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate strongly for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [46][49] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The futures price of SS2510 rose 85 to 12,960 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price was stable [48] - **Important Information**: Rising nickel prices and global stainless - steel production data [51] - **Logic Analysis**: The price follows the upward trend of nickel. Inventory decreased slightly, and the consumption season may bring optimism [51] - **Trading Strategy**: Strong oscillation for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage [52][53] Tin - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai tin 2510 rose 210 yuan/ton to 273,980 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot market was quiet [55] - **Related Information**: Statements from the US Treasury Secretary and a production cut at a smelter [56] - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's dovish stance continues. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and demand is in the off - season [58] - **Trading Strategy**: Volatile for single - side trading. Wait and see for options [59][60] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The futures price of industrial silicon rose 1.13% to 8,470 yuan/ton. The spot price was mostly stable [61] - **Related Information**: A silicon - field standardization workshop will be held during the silicon industry conference [62] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The demand from the silicone industry may weaken, while that from polysilicon may increase. Supply is becoming more abundant. The price may rebound [63] - **Strategy**: May rebound in the short term for single - side trading. Reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts. No options strategy [64] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The futures price of polysilicon rose 3.97% to 51,875 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable [67] - **Related Information**: Domestic polysilicon prices increased [68] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Although production may increase in September, sales restrictions and potential production cuts may drive the price up [68] - **Strategy**: Hold long positions and take partial profits near the previous high for single - side trading. Reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold call options [69] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The futures price of the 2511 contract fell 3,260 to 72,620 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price decreased [70] - **Important Information**: Porsche's business adjustment, a new battery factory, and a lithium sulfide project [71][72] - **Logic Analysis**: Battery and cathode production is expected to increase in September, but supply may be affected. The price may continue to decline [73] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for stabilization for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [74][75]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, nickel prices continued to be weak. At the beginning of the week, trading was light, but as nickel prices further declined, trading improved. In the industry chain, ore prices remained stable, while ferronickel prices increased slightly, with a firm cost line. Stainless steel inventories increased, and it is expected that the "Golden September and Silver October" period will boost consumption and reduce inventories. New energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the installed capacity of ternary batteries decreased year - on - year, limiting overall demand growth. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [8]. - The Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and the stainless steel main contract is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Views and Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel View**: Nickel prices were weak this week. The ore price was stable, ferronickel price rose slightly, stainless steel inventory increased, and the overall demand boost was limited. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [8]. - **Operation Strategy**: The Shanghai nickel main contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and the stainless steel main contract will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: The prices of red clay nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% and NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% remained unchanged from last week [13]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan ex - factory prices decreased by 0.61%, 0.87%, and 0.57% respectively compared with last week [14]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of low - grade ferronickel in Shandong increased by 7.81%, while the price of high - grade ferronickel remained unchanged [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased by 0.27% compared with last week [14]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel increased by 0.74%, while the price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained unchanged [13]. 3.2.2. Nickel Ore Market Conditions Analysis - Nickel ore prices were stable, and shipping costs were the same as last week. On August 21, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 12.0585 million wet tons, an increase of 1.1069 million wet tons or 10.11% from the previous period. In July 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 5.0058 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6591 million tons or 15.16% and a year - on - year increase of 1.5207 million tons or 43.63%. The September quotation was settled, and the ore price remained stable [17]. 3.2.3. Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions Analysis - Nickel prices fluctuated weakly with support below and pressure above. In the long - term, supply and demand will continue to increase, but the oversupply pattern will not change. In July 2025, China's refined nickel production was 36,151 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.74% and a year - on - year increase of 24.57%. In July 2025, China's refined nickel import volume was 38,164.223 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,154 tons or 124.36%, and the export volume was 15,545.572 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,403 tons or 53.27%. LME inventory decreased by 1,914 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 19 tons [22][30][33]. 3.2.4. Nickel Iron Market Conditions Analysis - Ferronickel prices increased slightly. In July 2025, China's nickel pig iron actual production of metal was 22,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.63%. In July 2025, China's nickel iron import volume was 836,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 206,000 tons or 19.7%. In July 2025, the nickel iron inventory was 224,800 physical tons, equivalent to 21,800 nickel tons [43][46][49]. 3.2.5. Stainless Steel Market Conditions Analysis - The price of 304 stainless steel decreased this week. In July, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.2108 million tons, and the 300 - series production decreased by 2.63% month - on - month. The latest stainless steel import volume was 73,000 tons, and the export volume was 416,300 tons. On August 22, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.0917 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons [56][61][64]. 3.2.6. New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales Situation - In July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 26.3% and 27.4%. From January to July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 8.232 million and 8.22 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 39.2% and 38.5%. In July 2025, the production of power and other batteries was 133.8 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 44.3%. The installed capacity of ternary batteries decreased year - on - year [73][74][78]. 3.3. Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price fell below the 20 - day moving average and continued to decline along the moving average. The short - selling force is increasing. The MACD continued to diverge downward after a death cross. The KDJ entered the oversold area and may have a rebound demand. The price is testing the support of the golden ratio line. If it breaks down, the downward space will be opened; otherwise, it will continue to fluctuate [81]. 3.4. Industry Chain Sorting and Summary - **Fundamental Views**: The nickel ore market is neutral, the ferronickel market is neutral, the refined nickel market is slightly bearish, the stainless steel market is neutral, and the new energy market is neutral [84]. - **Trading Strategy**: The Shanghai nickel main contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and the stainless steel main contract will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The supporting logic at the mine end is weakening, and the logic at the smelting end restricts the price elasticity [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The game between long and short positions intensifies, and the steel price fluctuates [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: The auction price is slightly at a discount to the market price, and the range - bound shock trend may continue [2][9]. - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment has cooled down [2][12]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the disturbances from the news [2][13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,340 yuan, down 100 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,130 yuan, down 70 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 89,510 lots, down 6,845 lots from T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 160,324 lots, up 29,895 lots from T - 1 [4]. - **Industry Chain**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 123,150 yuan, up 350 yuan from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 923 yuan, up 2 yuan from T - 1 [4]. Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [4]. - The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF successfully produced nickel - iron and entered the trial - production stage [5]. - Environmental violations were found in Indonesia's IMIP, and possible fines may be imposed on illegal companies [5][6]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [6]. - The approved RKAB production of Indonesian nickel - mining companies in 2025 is 3.64 billion tons, higher than the 2024 target [6]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended the production of all EF production lines, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [6][7]. - Indonesian mining companies must resubmit the RKAB for 2026 starting from October 2025 [7]. - A steel mill in Shandong started maintenance and suspended long - term supply agreements due to capacity limitations and a 5% annual production reduction target [7]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral view [8]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 85,040 yuan, up 2,480 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 75,743 lots, down 86,924 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 108,394 lots, down 9,256 lots from T - 1 [9]. - **Industry Chain**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,000 yuan, up 3,000 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 78,800 yuan, up 3,000 yuan from T - 1 [9]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 80,946 yuan/ton, up 2,822 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [10]. - The auction prices of 100 tons of Ronghui Lithium Industry and 100 tons of Yongshan Lithium Industry's lithium carbonate were 85,000 yuan/ton and 84,388 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - Ganfeng Lithium's subsidiary will jointly develop the PPGS lithium - salt lake project in Argentina [11]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Si2511 contract was 8,600 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 510,280 lots, down 10,224 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 284,500 lots, up 5,640 lots from T - 1. The closing price of the PS2511 contract was down 510 yuan from T - 1 [13]. - **Price and Inventory**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - grade silicon was 8,800 yuan/ton, with no change from T - 1. The industrial - silicon enterprise inventory was 170,000 tons, down 30,000 tons from T - 1. The polysilicon - manufacturer inventory was 233,000 tons, up 4,000 tons from T - 1 [13]. Macro and Industry News - On August 12, 2025, the environmental impact report (draft for public comments) of Haidong Hongshi Semiconductor's 500 - ton silicon - based electronic special gas project was publicized [15]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - For the nickel market, the supply surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, with continuous release of nickel intermediate product capacity and loosening of mine - end prices. Due to the recent change in market macro - sentiment, nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [1][2]. - For the stainless steel market, high - nickel iron is weakly stable, and the retail price of ferrochrome is strongly stable, so there is still cost support. With few downstream rigid - demand orders and weak spot trading, price increases lack momentum. Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range with a slight upward bias in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is also to sell on rallies for hedging [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Market Analysis**: On August 5, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2509 opened at 120,630 yuan/ton and closed at 120,910 yuan/ton, up 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 84,818 lots, and the open interest was 90,543 lots. Philippine mines are in the shipping stage, while domestic iron plants are reducing production loads and being cautious in raw material procurement. In Indonesia, the weather has improved, nickel ore mining efficiency has increased, and the nickel ore market has weakened. The domestic trade benchmark price in August (first phase) increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium remained flat. In the spot market, the price of Jinchuan nickel was raised by about 500 yuan/ton, and the premiums of refined nickel were mostly stable, but spot trading became lighter. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 20,923 (- 247.0) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 211,254 (2172) tons [1]. - **Strategy**: In the near term, trade within the range for single - side trading. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading. The mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [2]. Stainless Steel Market - **Market Analysis**: On August 5, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2509 opened at 12,845 yuan/ton and closed at 12,960 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 79,826 lots, and the open interest was 85,949 lots. The US may impose new tariffs, and China will resume levying VAT on the interest income of certain bonds from August 8, 2025. In the spot market, the futures price oscillated upward, but the spot price changed little. After rigid - demand restocking, market trading declined, and the overall trading was average. The price of stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 13,000 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 95 - 295 yuan/ton. The average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron increased by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 916.0 yuan/nickel point [2]. - **Strategy**: The single - side trading strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading. The mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - For copper, the current demand is seasonally weak due to the downstream off - season and weakened trans - shipment motivation, but the balance will be tight after August. The annual apparent demand is expected to be in the range of 4.8% - 5.5%. A short - term cautious but long - term bullish view is maintained on Shanghai copper, and virtual inventory can be considered for establishment in the third quarter [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly from January to May, and August is a seasonal off - season for demand. Inventory may continue to accumulate slightly in August. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand, as well as far - month and inside - outside reverse arbitrage opportunities under the low - inventory pattern [1][2]. - For zinc, the price fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and inventories at home and abroad show different trends. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see, pay attention to commodity sentiment, and manage positions. Inside - outside positive arbitrage can be held, and attention can be paid to month - spread positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, and inventories at home and abroad are stable. The short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6]. - For stainless steel, supply has been reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories have decreased slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to policy trends [6][7]. - For lead, the price declined slightly this week. Supply and demand have small changes, and there are expectations of inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 and 17,500 next week [8][9]. - For tin, the price fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly in July - August, demand is weak, and the domestic market is in a situation of both supply and demand being weak. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see or short - sell lightly at high prices [12]. - For industrial silicon, the production of Hesheng may change the supply - demand balance. If the start - up rate does not recover significantly, the disk is expected to fluctuate. If the resumption of production accelerates, the supply will be in excess, and the price may decline [15]. - For lithium carbonate, the current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the intermediate links. The trading focus has shifted to potential supply disturbances. If the risks are resolved, the price may remain low and fluctuate [17]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased from 180 to 110, and the warehouse receipt increased by 251. The spot import profit increased by 216.25, and the three - month import profit increased by 203.83 [1]. - **Analysis**: The demand is currently weak, but the balance will be tight after August. The annual apparent demand is expected to be in the 4.8% - 5.5% range. A short - term cautious but long - term bullish view is maintained, and virtual inventory can be considered for establishment in the third quarter [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 40, and the domestic alumina price increased by 1. The social inventory showed a small change, and the exchange inventory remained the same [1]. - **Analysis**: Supply increased slightly from January to May, August is a seasonal off - season for demand, and inventory may continue to accumulate slightly. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and arbitrage opportunities [1][2]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the zinc price fluctuated narrowly. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory decreased by 3,350. The import profit of Shanghai zinc increased [5]. - **Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and inventories at home and abroad show different trends. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see, pay attention to commodity sentiment, and manage positions. Inside - outside positive arbitrage can be held, and attention can be paid to month - spread positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the price of Shanghai nickel decreased by 900. The import profit of spot nickel decreased by 660.34 [6]. - **Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, and inventories at home and abroad are stable. The short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, and 430 cold - rolled stainless steel remained unchanged [6]. - **Analysis**: Supply has been reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories have decreased slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to policy trends [6][7]. Lead - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the spot premium of lead increased by 10, and the LME inventory increased by 6,700. The import profit of spot lead increased by 71.14 [8]. - **Analysis**: The price declined slightly this week. Supply and demand have small changes, and there are expectations of inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 and 17,500 next week [8][9]. Tin - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the spot import profit of tin decreased by 2,016.08, and the LME inventory increased by 35. The LME C - 3M increased by 31 [12]. - **Analysis**: The price fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly in July - August, demand is weak, and the domestic market is in a situation of both supply and demand being weak. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see or short - sell lightly at high prices [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the 421 Yunnan basis and 421 Sichuan basis changed, and the 553 East China basis and 553 Tianjin basis also changed. The number of warehouse receipts changed slightly [15]. - **Analysis**: The production of Hesheng may change the supply - demand balance. If the start - up rate does not recover significantly, the disk is expected to fluctuate. If the resumption of production accelerates, the supply will be in excess, and the price may decline [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 750, and the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 700. The basis of the main contract increased by 1,530 [17]. - **Analysis**: The current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the intermediate links. The trading focus has shifted to potential supply disturbances. If the risks are resolved, the price may remain low and fluctuate [17].