Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market's expectation of the 232 tariff has been postponed to September/October, and the price and spread of non-US regions will be significantly supported before the 232 tariff is implemented [5][7] - The supply of alumina is slightly in excess, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range corresponding to the high-cost production capacity and cash cost of bauxite at $73 - $75 [13][16] - The aluminum ingot social inventory is expected to remain in a narrow range of increase or decrease in July, and the aluminum consumption off-season may not be too light [23] - The market trading atmosphere of cast aluminum alloy is relatively light, and the price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum price [28] - The supply of zinc continues to increase, and the downstream enters the consumption off-season, so the zinc price may be under pressure to decline [37] - The supply of lead may be tightened, and the lead price may fluctuate strongly under the improvement of consumption [42] - The supply and demand of nickel are in a weak pattern, and the nickel price is under pressure in the medium term [49] - The stainless steel price is under pressure, and it is expected to decline in shock [57] - The supply of tin is tight, and the demand is in the off-season, so the short-term market is strong [64] - The price of industrial silicon is affected by market rumors, and it is recommended to operate short-term according to the technical graph [70][72] - The polysilicon market is affected by industry and macro factors, and it is recommended to wait and see [76] - The lithium carbonate price may test the upper pressure, but the upward space is limited, and the idea of shorting on rallies remains in the medium term [81] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2508 contract closed at 80,640 yuan/ton, up 1.09%, and the Shanghai Copper Index reduced its position by 15,446 lots to 596,100 lots. The spot price increased in Shanghai and Guangdong but decreased in Tianjin [2] - **Important Information**: The sales volume of new energy vehicles in the world from January to May 2025 reached 7.89 million units, accounting for 27.7% of the total vehicle sales [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the unilateral position; buy near and sell far for arbitrage; wait and see for options [8][9][10] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2509 contract decreased by 42 yuan to 2,945 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 4,532 lots to 429,700 lots. The spot price remained unchanged [11] - **Related Information**: The winning bid price of alumina in Xinjiang increased, and the warehouse receipt decreased [12] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [16][17] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract increased by 65 yuan/ton to 20,800 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 21,366 lots to 680,400 lots. The spot price in East China increased, while that in South China remained unchanged and that in Central China decreased [19] - **Related Information**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly, and the production of aluminum rods decreased [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the unilateral position; consider positive arbitrage opportunities when de-stocking; wait and see for options [24] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 50 yuan to 19,825 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 258 lots to 10,089 lots. The spot price remained unchanged [26] - **Related Information**: The expected sales volume of passenger cars in June increased, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [26] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum price, and consider arbitrage trading and spot-futures arbitrage under certain conditions; wait and see for options [30] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 contract decreased by 0.8% to 22,255 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Zinc Index decreased by 6,105 lots to 268,800 lots. The spot price decreased, and the market trading improved [32] - **Related Information**: The smelter in Peru resumed production, and domestic zinc production projects were put into operation [33] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see on the unilateral position, and consider shorting on rallies; wait and see for arbitrage and options [38] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2508 contract decreased by 0.26% to 17,100 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Lead Index increased by 1,148 lots to 82,600 lots. The spot price decreased, and the trading was limited [40] - **Related Information**: The social inventory of lead ingots increased, and Shanghai introduced subsidy policies for electric bicycles [41] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable long positions and consider adding long positions on dips; wait and see for arbitrage and options [43] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2508 decreased by 250 to 120,720 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased by 3,110 lots. The spot premium remained unchanged or decreased slightly [46] - **Related Information**: Indonesian nickel projects were launched, and China's economic prosperity level expanded [47][48] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies on the unilateral position; wait and see for arbitrage; consider selling call options after rallies [50][52] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract SS2508 decreased by 110 to 12,560 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 4,789 lots. The spot price range was given [56] - **Related Information**: India launched an anti-dumping review on Chinese stainless steel pipes, and China continued to impose anti-dumping duties on imported stainless steel [57] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to decline in shock; wait and see for arbitrage [58][59] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2508 closed at 269,840 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan/ton or 0.63%. The spot price decreased slightly, and the trading volume increased slightly [61] - **Related Information**: The sales volume of new energy vehicles in the world and different regions was given [62][63] - **Trading Strategy**: The short-term market is strong, and pay attention to the resumption rhythm of tin mines; wait and see for options [64][65] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures decreased significantly, and the spot price range was given [67][68] - **Related Information**: A high-performance fluorine-chlorine new material project was planned to be built [69] - **Trading Strategy**: Operate short-term according to the technical graph; wait and see for options; participate in the reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [72][73] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures decreased significantly, and the spot price decreased [74] - **Related Information**: China revised the Anti-Unfair Competition Law, and the US solar industry subsidy was discussed [75] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see on the unilateral position; wait and see for options and arbitrage [77][79] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract increased by 100 to 62,780 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased. The spot price remained unchanged [80] - **Related Information**: Hainan Mining signed a lithium spodumene purchase agreement, and the central government emphasized market construction [81] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies on the unilateral position; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out-of-the-money call options [82][83]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices may rebound due to interest - rate cut expectations and CL spread drivers. Before the "232" investigation ends, the shortage trend of electrolytic copper is difficult to reverse, and there is still support at the bottom [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market maintains a slight surplus, and the future core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate weakly. For aluminum, the current macro - positive and low - inventory situation support the price to run strongly, but the consumption off - season pressure limits the upside space, and it is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level in the short term [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent contradictions on the demand side. It is expected that the market will fluctuate weakly, and the main reference range is 19200 - 20000 [5]. Zinc - The zinc ore supply is in a loose trend. The demand side shows a marginal weakening trend. The inventory is in a destocking state, and the absolute level is low, providing price support. In the short term, zinc prices may rebound, but the fundamentals have not improved essentially, and a short - selling strategy is recommended in the medium - long term [8]. Nickel - Macro sentiment improves, but the cost support of refined nickel is loosened, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upside space of prices. It is expected to adjust within a range in the short term, with the main reference range of 116000 - 124000 [10]. Stainless Steel - Although the market sentiment has improved, the fundamentals remain weak. The bargaining range of nickel - iron continues to move down, and the cost support weakens. The production of stainless steel remains high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main reference range of 12200 - 13000 [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate still face pressure. The inventory is at a high level, and the overall supply is sufficient. The demand is difficult to boost. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, with the main reference range of 58000 - 64000 [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79990 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 130 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 is 240.67 dollars/ton, down 79.16 dollars from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month. In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 25.31 million tons, up 1.23% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20780 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the previous day. The 2507 - 2508 spread is 150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the alumina production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month. The electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The 2511 - 2512 spread is 70 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 60.60 million tons, down 0.66% month - on - month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 26.10 million tons, down 0.38% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22490 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1306 yuan/ton, up 1.22 yuan from the previous day [8]. Fundamental Data - In May, the refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08% month - on - month. The refined zinc import volume was 2.82 million tons, up 2.40% month - on - month [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122250 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2600 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel production was 35350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month. The refined nickel import volume was 8832 tons, up 8.18% month - on - month [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12650 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The 2508 - 2509 spread is 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month. The stainless steel import volume was 12.51 million tons, down 12.00% month - on - month [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 61300 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day. The SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 57820 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - In May, the lithium carbonate production was 78090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month. The lithium carbonate demand was 93960 tons, up 4.83% month - on - month [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - In the "strong reality + weak expectation" scenario, copper prices lack a clear and smooth trend. The strong reality of the fundamentals limits price drops, while weak macro - expectations restrict upward movement. Short - term prices are likely to fluctuate. The "rush to export" demand may lead to pressure on the real demand side in Q3. The main reference range is 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 2750 - 3150 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to have a high - level wide - range fluctuation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 19,600 - 20,600 yuan/ton. The future core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity [2]. Zinc - In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. If the growth rate of the mining end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. Otherwise, the price center may shift downward. The long - term approach is to short on rallies, with the main reference range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to have a weak - range adjustment, with the main reference range of 116,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. The mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices [9]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market fundamentals are weak. The supply is in an over - capacity situation, and the terminal demand is weak. The short - term supply - demand contradiction still exerts pressure on the market. It is expected to operate weakly, with the main reference range of 12,300 - 13,000 yuan/ton [13]. Tin - In the short term, tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, considering the weak demand expectation, the strategy is to short on rallies based on inventory and import data inflection points [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market is expected to operate weakly in the short - term range. The strategy is to short on rallies, with the main reference range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,580 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous day. The price of other copper products also shows different degrees of increase or decrease [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,530 yuan/ton, down 0.05% from the previous day. Alumina prices in different regions also have different changes [2]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,200 yuan/ton, up 0.23% from the previous day [7]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 119,550 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from the previous day [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price is 12,650 yuan/ton, up 0.40% from the previous day [13]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price is 262,100 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 60,200 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous day [16]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In May, electrolytic copper production was 113.83 million tons, up 1.12% month - on - month; imports were 25.31 million tons, up 1.23% month - on - month [1]. - **Aluminum**: In May, alumina production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month [2]. - **Zinc**: In May, refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08% month - on - month; imports were 2.82 million tons, up 2.40% month - on - month [7]. - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production was 35,350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month; imports were 8832 tons, up 8.18% month - on - month [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month [13]. - **Tin**: In May, tin ore imports were 13,449 tons, up 36.39% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 2.37% month - on - month [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In May, lithium carbonate production was 72,080 tons, down 2.34% month - on - month; demand was 93,960 tons, up 4.83% month - on - month [16]. Inventory - **Copper**: Domestic social inventory was 12.96 million tons, down 12.25% week - on - week; bonded - area inventory was 6.43 million tons, up 7.71% week - on - week [1]. - **Aluminum**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 46.40 million tons, up 1.31% week - on - week; LME inventory was 33.8 million tons, down 0.59% day - on - day [2]. - **Zinc**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory was 7.78 million tons, down 0.38% week - on - week; LME inventory was 12.3 million tons, down 0.47% day - on - day [7]. - **Nickel**: SHFE inventory was 25,693 tons, up 0.30% week - on - week; LME inventory was 203,928 tons, down 0.11% day - on - day [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 53.42 million tons, up 0.64% week - on - week; SHFE warehouse receipts were 11.29 million tons, down 0.32% day - on - day [13]. - **Tin**: SHEF inventory (weekly) was 6965 tons, down 2.00% week - on - week; social inventory was 8845 tons, down 1.12% week - on - week [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Total lithium carbonate inventory in May was 97,637 tons, up 1.49% month - on - month [16].