1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Short - term, copper price is affected by the game of interest - rate cut expectations. The Fed's dovish stance on August 22 boosted the market's expectation of a September rate cut and copper prices. The inflation pressure may not prevent the restart of rate cuts, but the actual rate - cut amplitude is uncertain. - Fundamentally, the supply - demand contradiction of copper is the main line. The supply is tight, and there is support at the bottom. In the future, copper pricing will return to macro trading. The price may fluctuate in the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to the US economic data in August and the rate - cut path in the second half of the year [1]. Aluminum - Alumina: The alumina futures market was weak this week due to the increase in warehouse receipts. The spot market is divided between the north and the south. The medium - term supply surplus pattern is difficult to reverse. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton next week, and short positions can be considered in the medium term. - Aluminum: The aluminum futures market fluctuated narrowly this week. The current supply - demand structure is under pressure, and the subsequent inventory build - up expectation is still strong. The short - term aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The fundamentals of aluminum alloy showed marginal improvement this week. The social inventory decreased for the first time since mid - April. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand from the communication die - casting sector has rebounded. The spot price is expected to remain firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The upstream zinc mines are in the up - cycle of production resumption. The smelting profit has been repaired, and the smelting start - up rate has increased. The demand is in the seasonal off - season. The fundamentals of loose supply and weak demand are not enough to boost the zinc price to rise continuously, but the overseas inventory drawdown provides support. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period and the entry of the electronic consumption off - season. The tin price will fluctuate widely in the short term. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered [11]. Nickel - Last week, the nickel futures market fluctuated weakly. The macro - sentiment declined, and the fundamentals of supply and demand changed little. The short - term nickel price will return to fundamental pricing, with limited downside space and restricted upside space by the medium - term supply surplus. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - Last week, the stainless - steel futures market fluctuated downwards. The spot price decreased slightly, and the trading atmosphere was weak. The cost provides support, but the demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the lithium carbonate futures market fluctuated sharply. The price center moved down to below 80,000 yuan/ton. The current fundamentals are in a tight balance, with supply contraction and stable demand. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and there may be strong support in the range of 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 78,830 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 4.84% to 1,084 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; the import volume was 29.69 million tons, down 1.20% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum was at 20,710 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the previous day. The import loss was 1,226 yuan/ton, down 74.1 yuan/ton from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained at 20,450 yuan/ton. The scrap - refined price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 1.28% to 1,588 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, up 4.31% month - on - month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 22,200 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the previous day. The import loss was 1,676 yuan/ton, up 8.13 yuan/ton from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; the import volume was 1.79 million tons, down 50.35% month - on - month [8]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin was at 266,000 yuan/ton, down 0.30% from the previous day. The import loss was 16,622.23 yuan/ton, up 6.26% from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 120,550 yuan/ton, down 0.45% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 was at - 176 dollars/ton, up 5.95% from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Chinese refined nickel products was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the import volume of refined nickel was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,000 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day. The spot - futures price difference was 420 yuan/ton, down 1.18% from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume of stainless steel was 7.30 million tons, down 33.30% month - on - month [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was at 80,668 yuan/ton, down 1.53% from the previous day. The lithium - spodumene concentrate CIF average price was 934 dollars/ton, down 1.48% from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; the demand was 66,099.6 tons, up 2.50% month - on - month [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation, the non-US electrolytic copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand." The spot contradiction will be gradually resolved. The next stage may return to macro trading. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - In the short term, the price of the main aluminum contract is expected to remain under pressure at high levels, ranging between 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. The price of the main alumina contract is expected to fluctuate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton in the coming week [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract price ranging between 19,400 - 20,200 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract price ranging between 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton [7]. Nickel - The nickel price is expected to adjust within a range in the short term, with the main contract price ranging between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. It is recommended to hold short positions established at previous high levels [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract price ranging between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate price is expected to remain strong, with the main contract price ranging between 65,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton. However, there is still a downward risk in the medium term [16]. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.82% to 78,660 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose by 70 yuan/ton to 175 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 contracts decreased by 20 yuan/ton to -30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.30% month-on-month; the import volume was 0.3005 million tons, an increase of 18.74% month-on-month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.63% to 20,700 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM A00 aluminum rose by 10 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 contracts increased by 15 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a decrease of 0.19% month-on-month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 3.22% month-on-month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.50% to 20,100 yuan/ton [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 contracts increased by 35 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 0.615 million tons, an increase of 1.49% month-on-month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 0.255 million tons, a decrease of 2.30% month-on-month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.95% to 22,320 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 5 yuan/ton [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 contracts decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 5 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the refined zinc production was 0.5851 million tons, an increase of 6.50% month-on-month; the import volume was 0.0361 million tons, an increase of 34.97% month-on-month [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.87% to 121,500 yuan/ton. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,000 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2509 - 2510 contracts increased by 30 yuan/ton to -90 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a decrease of 10.04% month-on-month; the import volume was 19,157 tons, an increase of 116.90% month-on-month [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 1.37% to 265,500 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 tin remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 contracts increased by 120 yuan/ton to -90 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, an increase of 36.39% month-on-month; the SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37% month-on-month [11]. Stainless Steel - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.39% to 12,800 yuan/ton. The basis between futures and spot increased by 28.95% to 245 yuan/ton [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2509 - 2510 contracts remained unchanged at -40 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300-series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% month-on-month; the import volume was 0.1095 million tons, a decrease of 12.48% month-on-month [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.62% to 66,650 yuan/ton. The basis (based on SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate) decreased by 3.86% to -3,230 yuan/ton [16]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 contracts decreased by 180 yuan/ton to -80 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34% month-on-month; the demand was 93,815 tons, a decrease of 0.15% month-on-month [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to experience high - level fluctuations. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged due to factors such as the progress of the US fiscal expansion bill, the weakening of the US dollar, and the long - term reshaping of the global order [1][3]. - Silver will have range - bound fluctuations as its logical drivers remain relatively stable, and the ratio of gold to silver has returned to the normal range [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to hold long positions. Although there is a risk of a high - level pullback, the long - term outlook for copper is positive [1][6]. - Zinc is under pressure. In the long run, there is an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, so opportunities to short on rallies should be grasped [1][9]. - Lead's rebound is under pressure due to an expected increase in supply in July and unoptimistic downstream battery consumption [1]. - Tin's rebound is also under pressure as the supply from Myanmar's tin mines has not recovered and the consumption in the terminal field has entered the off - season [1]. - Aluminum is in a short - term rebound trend. However, as the terminal enters the off - season, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [1][12]. - Nickel is under pressure. The cost support has weakened, and the downstream stainless - steel industry has inventory accumulation pressure [1][14]. - Industrial silicon's rebound is under pressure. There are rumors of large - scale factory restarts, and the cost support has weakened [1]. - For lithium carbonate, the fundamentals remain in an oversupply situation, and the market has significant differences in downstream production schedules [1][15]. Summary by Variety Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: SHFE gold closed at 776.1, up 1.11% from the previous value, and COMEX gold closed at 3349, up 1.01%. SHFE silver closed at 8810, up 0.55%, and COMEX silver closed at 36, down 0.30%. The Shanghai gold - to - silver ratio was 88.09, up 0.56% [2]. - **Basic Logic**: The US fiscal expansion bill has made progress. The US Senate passed the "Great Beauty" bill on July 1st, including a $4.5 - trillion tax cut and a $1.2 - trillion spending cut. Other countries have made compromises in trade negotiations. The US dollar has continued to weaken significantly, with the Bloomberg dollar index falling for six consecutive months in June [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider long - term investment in gold when the price is around 760. Silver will have range - bound fluctuations, with strong support at 8560 [4]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The closing price of SHFE copper was 80390, up 0.46% from the previous day. The LME copper price was 9934, up 0.66%, and the COMEX copper price was 509.9, down 0.24% [5]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is tight, and the processing TC of copper concentrates has dropped to - 43.57 dollars/ton. During the consumption off - season, the demand from the power and new - energy vehicle sectors has offset the lack of demand from traditional sectors such as construction [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing long positions in copper, and take partial profits when the price is high. Be vigilant about the risk of a high - level pullback. In the short term, focus on the range of [78500, 81000] for SHFE copper and [9700, 9900] dollars/ton for LME copper [6]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of SHFE zinc was 22175, down 0.36% from the previous day. The LME zinc price was 2713.5, down 1.00% [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc mines is expected to be more abundant. Although there was a strike at a large zinc smelter in Peru, the overall supply of zinc mines is at a high level, and the TC has continued to rebound. Domestic inventories have slightly increased, and the downstream galvanizing enterprises' performance is lower than in previous years [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc is under pressure. In the long run, short on rallies. Focus on the range of [22000, 22600] for SHFE zinc and [2650, 2750] dollars/ton for LME zinc [9][10]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of LME aluminum was 2602 dollars/ton, up 0.17%, and the closing price of SHFE aluminum was 20635 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The price of alumina was under pressure and declined [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - sentiment has improved. However, as the terminal enters the off - season, the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is showing signs of accumulation. For alumina, the import of overseas bauxite remains at a high level, and the domestic production capacity has rebounded [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to short on rallies for SHFE aluminum, paying attention to changes in aluminum ingot inventories. The main operating range is [20000 - 20800]. Alumina will operate in a low - level range [12]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The closing price of LME nickel was 15190 dollars/ton, up 0.43%, and the closing price of SHFE nickel was 120720 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The price of stainless steel also declined [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of nickel mines from the Philippines has increased, and the price of Indonesian nickel mines has decreased, weakening the cost support. The domestic refined nickel inventory has increased, and the stainless - steel industry is facing inventory accumulation pressure during the off - season [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118000 - 122000] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2509 of lithium carbonate closed at 62780 yuan/ton, up 0.84%. The weekly production of lithium carbonate was 17598 tons, up 1.79%, and the weekly inventory was 136837 tons, up 1.44% [15]. - **Industrial Logic**: There are significant differences in the market's expectations for downstream production schedules. In the long - term, the supply of lithium carbonate exceeds demand, and the total inventory continues to reach new highs [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies within the range of [61800 - 63300] [16].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market's expectation of the 232 tariff has been postponed to September/October, and the price and spread of non-US regions will be significantly supported before the 232 tariff is implemented [5][7] - The supply of alumina is slightly in excess, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range corresponding to the high-cost production capacity and cash cost of bauxite at $73 - $75 [13][16] - The aluminum ingot social inventory is expected to remain in a narrow range of increase or decrease in July, and the aluminum consumption off-season may not be too light [23] - The market trading atmosphere of cast aluminum alloy is relatively light, and the price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum price [28] - The supply of zinc continues to increase, and the downstream enters the consumption off-season, so the zinc price may be under pressure to decline [37] - The supply of lead may be tightened, and the lead price may fluctuate strongly under the improvement of consumption [42] - The supply and demand of nickel are in a weak pattern, and the nickel price is under pressure in the medium term [49] - The stainless steel price is under pressure, and it is expected to decline in shock [57] - The supply of tin is tight, and the demand is in the off-season, so the short-term market is strong [64] - The price of industrial silicon is affected by market rumors, and it is recommended to operate short-term according to the technical graph [70][72] - The polysilicon market is affected by industry and macro factors, and it is recommended to wait and see [76] - The lithium carbonate price may test the upper pressure, but the upward space is limited, and the idea of shorting on rallies remains in the medium term [81] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2508 contract closed at 80,640 yuan/ton, up 1.09%, and the Shanghai Copper Index reduced its position by 15,446 lots to 596,100 lots. The spot price increased in Shanghai and Guangdong but decreased in Tianjin [2] - **Important Information**: The sales volume of new energy vehicles in the world from January to May 2025 reached 7.89 million units, accounting for 27.7% of the total vehicle sales [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the unilateral position; buy near and sell far for arbitrage; wait and see for options [8][9][10] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2509 contract decreased by 42 yuan to 2,945 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 4,532 lots to 429,700 lots. The spot price remained unchanged [11] - **Related Information**: The winning bid price of alumina in Xinjiang increased, and the warehouse receipt decreased [12] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [16][17] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract increased by 65 yuan/ton to 20,800 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 21,366 lots to 680,400 lots. The spot price in East China increased, while that in South China remained unchanged and that in Central China decreased [19] - **Related Information**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly, and the production of aluminum rods decreased [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the unilateral position; consider positive arbitrage opportunities when de-stocking; wait and see for options [24] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 50 yuan to 19,825 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 258 lots to 10,089 lots. The spot price remained unchanged [26] - **Related Information**: The expected sales volume of passenger cars in June increased, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [26] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum price, and consider arbitrage trading and spot-futures arbitrage under certain conditions; wait and see for options [30] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 contract decreased by 0.8% to 22,255 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Zinc Index decreased by 6,105 lots to 268,800 lots. The spot price decreased, and the market trading improved [32] - **Related Information**: The smelter in Peru resumed production, and domestic zinc production projects were put into operation [33] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see on the unilateral position, and consider shorting on rallies; wait and see for arbitrage and options [38] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2508 contract decreased by 0.26% to 17,100 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Lead Index increased by 1,148 lots to 82,600 lots. The spot price decreased, and the trading was limited [40] - **Related Information**: The social inventory of lead ingots increased, and Shanghai introduced subsidy policies for electric bicycles [41] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable long positions and consider adding long positions on dips; wait and see for arbitrage and options [43] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2508 decreased by 250 to 120,720 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased by 3,110 lots. The spot premium remained unchanged or decreased slightly [46] - **Related Information**: Indonesian nickel projects were launched, and China's economic prosperity level expanded [47][48] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies on the unilateral position; wait and see for arbitrage; consider selling call options after rallies [50][52] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract SS2508 decreased by 110 to 12,560 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 4,789 lots. The spot price range was given [56] - **Related Information**: India launched an anti-dumping review on Chinese stainless steel pipes, and China continued to impose anti-dumping duties on imported stainless steel [57] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to decline in shock; wait and see for arbitrage [58][59] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2508 closed at 269,840 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan/ton or 0.63%. The spot price decreased slightly, and the trading volume increased slightly [61] - **Related Information**: The sales volume of new energy vehicles in the world and different regions was given [62][63] - **Trading Strategy**: The short-term market is strong, and pay attention to the resumption rhythm of tin mines; wait and see for options [64][65] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures decreased significantly, and the spot price range was given [67][68] - **Related Information**: A high-performance fluorine-chlorine new material project was planned to be built [69] - **Trading Strategy**: Operate short-term according to the technical graph; wait and see for options; participate in the reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [72][73] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures decreased significantly, and the spot price decreased [74] - **Related Information**: China revised the Anti-Unfair Competition Law, and the US solar industry subsidy was discussed [75] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see on the unilateral position; wait and see for options and arbitrage [77][79] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract increased by 100 to 62,780 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased. The spot price remained unchanged [80] - **Related Information**: Hainan Mining signed a lithium spodumene purchase agreement, and the central government emphasized market construction [81] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies on the unilateral position; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out-of-the-money call options [82][83]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices may rebound due to interest - rate cut expectations and CL spread drivers. Before the "232" investigation ends, the shortage trend of electrolytic copper is difficult to reverse, and there is still support at the bottom [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market maintains a slight surplus, and the future core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate weakly. For aluminum, the current macro - positive and low - inventory situation support the price to run strongly, but the consumption off - season pressure limits the upside space, and it is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level in the short term [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent contradictions on the demand side. It is expected that the market will fluctuate weakly, and the main reference range is 19200 - 20000 [5]. Zinc - The zinc ore supply is in a loose trend. The demand side shows a marginal weakening trend. The inventory is in a destocking state, and the absolute level is low, providing price support. In the short term, zinc prices may rebound, but the fundamentals have not improved essentially, and a short - selling strategy is recommended in the medium - long term [8]. Nickel - Macro sentiment improves, but the cost support of refined nickel is loosened, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upside space of prices. It is expected to adjust within a range in the short term, with the main reference range of 116000 - 124000 [10]. Stainless Steel - Although the market sentiment has improved, the fundamentals remain weak. The bargaining range of nickel - iron continues to move down, and the cost support weakens. The production of stainless steel remains high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main reference range of 12200 - 13000 [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate still face pressure. The inventory is at a high level, and the overall supply is sufficient. The demand is difficult to boost. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, with the main reference range of 58000 - 64000 [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79990 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 130 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 is 240.67 dollars/ton, down 79.16 dollars from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month. In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 25.31 million tons, up 1.23% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20780 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the previous day. The 2507 - 2508 spread is 150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the alumina production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month. The electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The 2511 - 2512 spread is 70 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 60.60 million tons, down 0.66% month - on - month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 26.10 million tons, down 0.38% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22490 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1306 yuan/ton, up 1.22 yuan from the previous day [8]. Fundamental Data - In May, the refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08% month - on - month. The refined zinc import volume was 2.82 million tons, up 2.40% month - on - month [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122250 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2600 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel production was 35350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month. The refined nickel import volume was 8832 tons, up 8.18% month - on - month [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12650 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The 2508 - 2509 spread is 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month. The stainless steel import volume was 12.51 million tons, down 12.00% month - on - month [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 61300 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day. The SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 57820 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - In May, the lithium carbonate production was 78090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month. The lithium carbonate demand was 93960 tons, up 4.83% month - on - month [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - In the "strong reality + weak expectation" scenario, copper prices lack a clear and smooth trend. The strong reality of the fundamentals limits price drops, while weak macro - expectations restrict upward movement. Short - term prices are likely to fluctuate. The "rush to export" demand may lead to pressure on the real demand side in Q3. The main reference range is 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 2750 - 3150 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to have a high - level wide - range fluctuation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 19,600 - 20,600 yuan/ton. The future core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity [2]. Zinc - In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. If the growth rate of the mining end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. Otherwise, the price center may shift downward. The long - term approach is to short on rallies, with the main reference range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to have a weak - range adjustment, with the main reference range of 116,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. The mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices [9]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market fundamentals are weak. The supply is in an over - capacity situation, and the terminal demand is weak. The short - term supply - demand contradiction still exerts pressure on the market. It is expected to operate weakly, with the main reference range of 12,300 - 13,000 yuan/ton [13]. Tin - In the short term, tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, considering the weak demand expectation, the strategy is to short on rallies based on inventory and import data inflection points [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market is expected to operate weakly in the short - term range. The strategy is to short on rallies, with the main reference range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,580 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous day. The price of other copper products also shows different degrees of increase or decrease [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,530 yuan/ton, down 0.05% from the previous day. Alumina prices in different regions also have different changes [2]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,200 yuan/ton, up 0.23% from the previous day [7]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 119,550 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from the previous day [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price is 12,650 yuan/ton, up 0.40% from the previous day [13]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price is 262,100 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 60,200 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous day [16]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In May, electrolytic copper production was 113.83 million tons, up 1.12% month - on - month; imports were 25.31 million tons, up 1.23% month - on - month [1]. - **Aluminum**: In May, alumina production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month [2]. - **Zinc**: In May, refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08% month - on - month; imports were 2.82 million tons, up 2.40% month - on - month [7]. - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production was 35,350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month; imports were 8832 tons, up 8.18% month - on - month [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month [13]. - **Tin**: In May, tin ore imports were 13,449 tons, up 36.39% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 2.37% month - on - month [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In May, lithium carbonate production was 72,080 tons, down 2.34% month - on - month; demand was 93,960 tons, up 4.83% month - on - month [16]. Inventory - **Copper**: Domestic social inventory was 12.96 million tons, down 12.25% week - on - week; bonded - area inventory was 6.43 million tons, up 7.71% week - on - week [1]. - **Aluminum**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 46.40 million tons, up 1.31% week - on - week; LME inventory was 33.8 million tons, down 0.59% day - on - day [2]. - **Zinc**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory was 7.78 million tons, down 0.38% week - on - week; LME inventory was 12.3 million tons, down 0.47% day - on - day [7]. - **Nickel**: SHFE inventory was 25,693 tons, up 0.30% week - on - week; LME inventory was 203,928 tons, down 0.11% day - on - day [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 53.42 million tons, up 0.64% week - on - week; SHFE warehouse receipts were 11.29 million tons, down 0.32% day - on - day [13]. - **Tin**: SHEF inventory (weekly) was 6965 tons, down 2.00% week - on - week; social inventory was 8845 tons, down 1.12% week - on - week [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Total lithium carbonate inventory in May was 97,637 tons, up 1.49% month - on - month [16].