Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increase in retail prices of eggs and chicken due to rising stocking demand ahead of the Spring Festival [1] Group 2 - From January 12 to 18, retail prices of eggs and white-feathered chicken in 36 major cities increased by 1.5% and 0.1% respectively [1] - The northeastern region saw a significant rise in egg prices, with Changchun and Harbin increasing by 2.8% and 2.2% respectively [1] - In the western region, the price increase for white-feathered chicken was notable, with Guiyang and Chengdu rising by 5.6% and 2.8% respectively [1]

Report Title - Egg Weekly Report: Demand Improves Slightly, Egg Prices Edge Up [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The egg market is driven by sentiment, with prices rising due to pre - Spring Festival stocking, but there is pressure to digest the rapid short - term increase. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the price trend in 2026 will be affected by factors such as supply adjustment and seasonal demand [5][17] Summary by Section First Part: Logic Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.2 yuan/jin, up 0.3 yuan/jin from last Friday, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.4 yuan/jin, also up 0.3 yuan/jin. The market was boosted by sentiment, but there was pressure to digest the rapid price increase. The price of old hens in the production areas remained stable, with a weekly average of around 4.10 yuan/jin [5] 2. Supply Analysis - From January 8th, the weekly egg chicken culling volume in the main production areas was 18.96 million, a 4.3% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 484 days, the same as the previous week. In December, the national laying hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a 5% year - on - year increase, and lower than expected. The monthly egg chicken chick output of sample enterprises was 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13.9% year - on - year decrease [10] 3. Cost Analysis - As of January 9th, the corn price was around 2351 yuan/ton, and the soybean meal price was 3190 yuan/ton. The comprehensive feed cost was about 2603 yuan/ton, and the cost per jin of eggs remained stable. As of January 8th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.13 yuan/jin, a slight recovery from the previous week. On January 18th, the expected profit of egg chicken farming was - 14.14 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/jin from the previous week [13] 4. Demand Analysis - As of January 8th, the weekly egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7377 tons, with little change from the previous week and at a low level over the years. As of December 18th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1 day, slightly decreasing from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, slightly increasing from the previous week. On December 17th, the vegetable price index and pork price both showed a slight recovery [16] 5. Trading Strategies - In the cash market, it is expected that the supply pressure will be greatly relieved in the first half of 2026, and the egg price will gradually strengthen after the Spring Festival, but the increase will be limited. In the second half of the year, the supply is uncertain, and the price is likely to rise during the peak consumption season. In the futures market, it is recommended to consider building long positions at low prices for the May contract in the first - half peak season and short - term long positions with high - level closing for the August and September contracts. For the short - term February contract, it is expected to fluctuate within a range, and long positions can be considered for the distant - month contracts. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [17] Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 1. Egg Chicken Farming Situation - Not provided with specific summarized data 2. Spread and Basis - The document shows the basis and spread data of different contract months (January, May, September) from 2018 - 2025, but no specific summarized data is provided [24][25][28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The egg market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. The continuous losses of the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the elimination of old chickens. The inventory of laying hens has continued to decline from a high level, and the market sentiment has slightly improved. The current enthusiasm for replenishment of the breeding end is still lower than that of the same period last year, which is beneficial to the forward price. However, the current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, and the slight recovery of egg prices recently has slightly slowed down the enthusiasm for eliminating old chickens. The high production capacity still restricts the performance of the near - month market price. In the short term, the near - month contracts may be in a wide - range low - level shock state, and the far - month contracts are expected to perform better than the near - month contracts under the expectation of declining production capacity. It is advisable to try to go long on the far - month contracts with a light position [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: This week, eggs fluctuated and closed up. The closing price of the 2603 contract was 3040 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 89 yuan per 500 kilograms compared with the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term near - month contracts may be in a wide - range low - level shock state, and the far - month contracts are expected to perform better than the near - month contracts under the expectation of declining production capacity. It is advisable to try to go long on the far - month contracts with a light position [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures March contract fluctuated and rebounded. The position volume was 250,854 lots, an increase of 39,614 lots compared with last week. The net position of the top 20 was - 18,655, and the net short position decreased compared with last week's - 45,394 [10]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the registered warehouse receipts of eggs were 7 lots [16]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of eggs was reported at 3302 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 226 yuan per 500 kilograms compared with last week. The basis between the active March contract price of eggs and the average spot price was reported at + 262 yuan per ton [20]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 3 - 5 spread of eggs was reported at - 546 yuan per 500 kilograms, which was generally at a low level in the same period [27]. - **Related Commodity Spot Prices**: As of January 8, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 17.89 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was reported at 5.61 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - side**: As of November 30, 2025, the laying hen inventory index nationwide was reported at 112.03, a month - on - month decrease of 1.93%. The new chick index nationwide was reported at 93.62, a month - on - month increase of 39.54% [39]. - **Elimination Index and Age**: As of November 30, 2025, the elimination laying hen index nationwide was reported at 101.18, a month - on - month decrease of 11.59%. The elimination chicken age nationwide was reported at 500 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of January 8, 2026, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2351.37 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3200 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of January 2, 2026, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at - 0.39 yuan per chicken, and the average price of laying hen compound feed was reported at 2.8 yuan per kilogram [55]. - **Prices of Laying Hen Chicks and Elimination Chickens**: As of January 2, 2026, the average price of laying hen chicks in the main producing areas was reported at 2.8 yuan per chick, and the average price of elimination chickens in the main producing areas was reported at 7.9 yuan per kilogram [59]. - **Egg Monthly Export Volume**: In November 2025, the total egg export volume was 13,045.52 tons, an increase of 1091.86 tons compared with 11,953.66 tons in the same period of the previous year, a year - on - year increase of 9.13%. It decreased by 349.02 tons compared with 13,394.53 tons in the previous month [65].

Group 1 - The poultry market shows sufficient supply, with retail prices of eggs and broiler chickens in 36 major cities decreasing by 0.5% and 0.2% respectively from December 15 to 21 [1] - The central region experienced a significant decline in egg prices, with Zhengzhou, Hefei, and Nanchang seeing decreases of 4.2%, 3.4%, and 0.5% respectively [1] - In the western region, broiler chicken prices also saw notable declines, with Yinchuan, Chengdu, and Chongqing reporting decreases of 3.0%, 0.8%, and 0.4% respectively [1]

Group 1 - The demand for eggs in the market is showing continuous improvement, while the supply of chicken remains sufficient [1] - From December 8 to 14, the retail price of eggs in 36 major cities increased by 0.1% week-on-week, whereas the retail price of whole chickens decreased by 0.1% [1] - The central region saw the highest increase in egg prices, with Hefei, Zhengzhou, and Nanchang rising by 3.3%, 0.7%, and 0.2% respectively [1] Group 2 - The eastern region experienced a significant decline in whole chicken prices, with Tianjin, Shanghai, and Qingdao decreasing by 8.9%, 3.1%, and 1.2% respectively [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "volatile" rating for the egg market [5] Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the egg industry entered a deep downward cycle due to oversupply, with continuous losses and accelerated capacity reduction. By Q4, supply pressure showed marginal relief, and the market trading logic shifted from "downward cycle" to "cycle reversal" [2] - In 2026, the egg market has the foundation for a cycle reversal, but the path will be full of repetitions and uncertainties. The market needs to find a new balance between high inventory pressure and optimistic long - term expectations [2] Summary by Directory 1. Review: Capacity Over - supply Gradually Materialized - The core contradiction in the egg market in 2025 was the oversupply caused by the increase in laying hen inventory, which led to overall downward pressure on egg prices. The futures market followed the spot trend and amplified expectations [13] - Spring Festival: After the festival, the egg price dropped sharply, with a weekly average decline of 18.43%. The slowdown of capacity clearance was due to farmers' "bottom - fishing" mentality [14] - After Spring Festival to before May Day: High inventory dominated the market. The "weak reality" and "strong expectation" were differentiated, and the "short near - term, long far - term" reverse arbitrage structure was formed [15] - After May Day: The expected rally was falsified, and the market returned to a downward trend. The main contract switched to 06, and the spot price hit a new low [16] - H2: The expected support in the peak season failed. By the end of the year, the market turned to new cycle expectations [17] 2. Supply: The Dispute between Hen Culling and Chick Rearing 2.1 Supply Expansion Dominated Prices, with a Weak Performance Throughout the Year - Inventory Base Climbed: In 2025, the laying hen inventory was at a historical high. From January to November, the average monthly inventory of laying hens was 1.338 billion (Zhuochuang) and 1.276 billion (Steel Union), with year - on - year increases of 6.41% and 6.76% respectively [26] - Egg - laying Efficiency Improved: The improvement of egg - laying efficiency was another cause of oversupply in 2025, offsetting the supply reduction caused by hen culling [37] 2.2 High Chick Rearing has Reversed Downward - Chick Sales Declined from a High: In 2025, the overall sales of laying hen chicks showed a trend of "high in the first half, slow in the second half, and seasonal decline". From January to November, the cumulative sales were 46720 million (Zhuochuang) and 44343 million (Steel Union), with year - on - year decreases of 3.16% and 3.93% respectively [39][42] - The Price of Laying Hen Chicks Returned to a Rational Level: As of November 2025, the price of laying hen chicks was stable at around 2.7 yuan per chick, indicating a significant reduction in farmers' enthusiasm for chick rearing [51] 2.3 The Evolution of Hen Culling and Inventory Structure - The Key Variable in the Reversal Cycle - Culling Speed: In 2025, the culling of old hens showed significant phased characteristics, from relative caution at the beginning of the year to accelerated release in the middle of the year, and then maintained at a high level currently [53] - The Inventory Structure Tended to be Younger: By November 2025, the proportion of hens to be culled decreased, and the proportion of laying hens increased. The age structure of the inventory became younger [64] 2.4 Forecast of Laying Hen Inventory - Based on different scenarios of culling rhythm assumptions, the inventory level from January to April 2026 is expected to decline, but it will still be 10 - 20% higher than the theoretical inventory from January to April 2025 [75][76] 3. Demand: Trade Speculation Dominated Stage - by - Stage Market 3.1 Industrial Demand Maintained Resilience, while Household Consumption Showed Saturation - In 2025, the terminal consumption of eggs started high and ended low. Although industrial demand was resilient, it could not offset the weakening of catering and household demand [80] - The price ratio of pork/eggs was above 2.4, and that of chicken/eggs was above 2. Eggs had a significant unit protein cost advantage, but the substitution effect was limited and seasonal [91] 3.2 Pay Attention to Hoarding Market - After the Spring Festival, the inventory increased to a high level, and then the market entered a de - stocking cycle. Before festivals, there were often "pre - festival replenishment, post - festival callback" characteristics [94] - By the end of the year, the inventory level was not high, showing signs of improvement in the supply - demand situation [94] 4. Outlook and Investment Recommendations 4.1 Reality: The Industry is Gradually Ready for a Cycle Reversal - Since Q4 2025, the oversupply pressure has been marginally relieved. In 2026, the egg industry has the foundation for a cycle reversal, but the path will be complex and uncertain [100][102] 4.2 Changes: Expectation Adjustment is Inevitable - The current pricing structure has a contradiction: near - term contracts are over - priced, while far - term contracts have incorporated optimistic reversal expectations. The market will fluctuate due to the game between culling and chick rearing [103] 4.3 Strategies - Unilateral: For Q1 contracts, they can be considered as short - side opportunities when the premium is high. For Q2 contracts, a "buy on dips" strategy can be adopted. For H2 contracts, it is recommended to wait and see or operate within a range [3] - Arbitrage: The "short near - term, long far - term" reverse arbitrage is recommended. When the price difference between contracts is distorted, the safety margin of this strategy increases [3]

Core Insights - The unexpected surge in the breeding stock of grandparent white-feathered chickens since Q4 is set to reshape the market landscape for white-feathered broilers over the next one to two years [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The domestic breeding stock of grandparent white-feathered chickens is projected to reach 180,000 sets by December 2025, with a total annual update expected to exceed 1.5 million sets, significantly higher than the earlier industry expectation of around 1.3 million sets [1] - The fourth quarter saw a turnaround in the white-feathered broiler industry, which had been overshadowed by tight breeding stock supply due to avian influenza earlier in the year [2] - Monthly updates of grandparent breeding stock surged to 210,000 sets and 195,500 sets in October and November, respectively, leading to a total update that surpassed earlier annual expectations [2] Group 2: Supply Chain Adjustments - The shift in supply from France, which allowed for multiple batches of breeding stock to be sent to a single enterprise, combined with domestic breeding enterprises concentrating their updates in Q4, was a core reason for the increase in breeding stock [3] - The increase in domestic self-breeding accounted for 59.67% of the breeding stock updates in 2025, while imports from France and the U.S. accounted for 39.58% and 0.75%, respectively [6] Group 3: Future Implications - If the annual breeding stock reaches 1.5 million sets, it could support an annual output of approximately 7.2 billion to 7.5 billion broilers, indicating a potential supply increase compared to the 6.5 billion broilers expected in 2024 [6] - The industry may experience a phase of low profitability and restructuring, with expectations of a "first dip then rebound" scenario in 2026, followed by a period of stagnation in 2027 [6] - The increase in self-breeding is seen as a step towards reducing reliance on foreign imports, enhancing the industry's resilience against external risks [8]

Group 1 - The demand for eggs is improving, while the supply and demand for broiler chickens are both strong [1] - From December 1 to 7, the retail price of eggs in 36 major cities increased by 0.2% compared to the previous period, while the retail price of broiler chickens remained stable [1] - The western region saw a significant increase in egg prices, with Guiyang, Yinchuan, and Chongqing rising by 6.6%, 1.5%, and 0.6% respectively [1] Group 2 - In the eastern region, the prices of broiler chickens increased notably, with Nanjing, Qingdao, and Xiamen rising by 6.1%, 2.0%, and 1.7% respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xiantan Co., Ltd. reported a chicken product sales revenue of 494 million yuan for November 2025, with a year-on-year change of 11.63% and a month-on-month change of -1.79% [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - The sales volume for chicken products reached 57,400 tons in November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 18.34% and a month-on-month increase of 1.89% [1] Group 2: Project Development - The first phase of the prepared food project is progressing steadily in terms of research and development, brand building, and market sales [1] - The second phase of the project commenced production on July 17, 2024, with production capacity gradually being released [1] - The increase in production and processing volume is expected to lead to higher sales volume and revenue [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg - laying hen inventory remains at an absolute high. In November, the market demand is in a seasonal off - peak period. Although the inventory of laying hens has slightly decreased, the supply is still high, and the market maintains a situation of loose supply and demand. The long - term egg - laying hen production capacity is still in surplus, with significant price pressure. The overall long - term trend is bearish, but it is approaching an inflection point. If speculating on a rebound, it is recommended to focus on the far - month contracts [1]. - The current egg - laying hen inventory is high, and egg production is large. The trend of the number of culled chickens sold for slaughter is rising to the highest level in the same period, and the age of culled chickens continues to decline. The breeding profit is poor, and the probability of farmers delaying culling and molting increases [5]. - For the far - end, the production capacity is still at an absolute high, and the number of large - scale farms is increasing. Large manufacturers mainly maintain their original production plans, so the clearance of production capacity may be relatively slow. The enthusiasm of farmers for replenishing chicks is relatively low [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The inventory of laying hens is high. In November, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.352 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%. The proportion of main - laying hens increased, while that of reserve and to - be - slaughtered hens decreased. The proportion of hens over 450 days old decreased to 8.56%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04%, and the proportion of main - laying hens aged 120 - 450 days increased to 78.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.22% [1][18]. - The production rate is expected to increase as the temperature drops. However, due to low breeding profits, the number of old hens culled remains high, and the enthusiasm for culling is fair. In November, the chick sales volume increased slightly, but the overall replenishment sentiment remains cautious. The inventory structure shows that the proportion of large and medium - sized eggs increased month - on - month, while that of small - sized eggs decreased [1]. - The long - term production capacity of laying hens is in surplus, with high price pressure. The short - term price game lies in whether the actual number of culled chickens will create a shortage in the peak season for near - month contracts and the impact of low chick sales on far - month expectations [1]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: After the festival, the price reached a phased bottom. The recent rebound declined due to poor demand. The previous low of the main contract may be a phased low. There may be a second bottom - testing when the contract approaches delivery, and the bottom - rebounding and bottom - grinding range may be between 2800 - 3400 [6]. - **Single - side Strategy**: Close out the previous short positions, and either wait and see or lightly speculate on the peak - season rebound [6]. - **Basis Strategy**: Wait and see. As the number of culled chickens sold for slaughter increases, the spot price shows weak stability, and the rebound is less than that of the futures [6]. - **Spread Strategy**: Wait and see [6]. 1.3 Industry Customer Strategy Recommendations - **Egg Price Range Forecast**: The price range of the main contract is predicted to be 2800 - 3400, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 15.35% and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past three years at 37.63% [7]. - **Risk Management Strategy Recommendations**: For inventory management, to prevent inventory devaluation, short egg futures to lock in finished - product profits (10% recommended for JD2601 and JD2601 - C - 340). If worried about inventory devaluation but there is no suitable price on the futures market, sell call options (10% recommended). If worried about inventory devaluation but don't want to miss the opportunity of a sharp egg - price increase, buy out - of - the - money put options. For procurement management, to prevent future egg - price increases, buy far - month egg contracts according to the procurement plan. If worried about price increases but there is no suitable price on the futures market, sell put options. If worried about procurement price increases but don't want to lock in the purchase - and - sales profit in advance, buy out - of - the - money call options [7]. Chapter 2: Market Information 2.1 This Week's Main Information - **Positive Information**: After the egg price hit the bottom, the willingness of traders to stock up increased, and the market sales speed accelerated. Coupled with the slowdown of the egg - laying cycle of hens due to low temperatures in the north, the supply - side pressure was slightly relieved. It is expected that the egg price will mainly rise slowly and fluctuate at a low level in the short term. The average egg price in Shandong's main production area is 6.09 yuan/kg, up 0.14 yuan from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.63 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 6.73 yuan/kg, unchanged; and in Beijing, it is 6.16 yuan/kg, unchanged [8]. - **Negative Information**: In the third week of November (collection date: November 20), mutton prices increased month - on - month, while the prices of pork products, eggs, chicken, commercial - generation chicks, live cattle, and laying - hen compound feed decreased month - on - month. The prices of beef, fresh milk, corn, soybean meal, fattening - pig compound feed, and broiler compound feed remained unchanged month - on - month [8][9]. 2.2 Next Week's Main Information - Pay attention to the egg price quotes in the production areas [8]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Analysis 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - The main contract of eggs has switched to the 01 contract. The opening price at the beginning of the week was 3294 yuan/ton, and the closing price at the end of the week was 3117 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.34%. The open interest was 161,000 contracts, a decrease of 10,024 contracts from last week [9]. 3.2 Basis and Spread Structure Analysis - **Spread Structure**: The overall egg spread shows a contango structure. Although the 1 - 2 spread shows a back structure, it is actually a normal seasonal pattern of peak and off - peak seasons, and the overall structure is contango [11]. - **Basis Structure**: As the number of culled chickens sold for slaughter increases, the spot price shows weak stability. The basis of the 01 contract fluctuates insignificantly, and the far - month basis is weak [13]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - The current egg - laying hen breeding profit is still poor, at the lowest level in the past five years seasonally. Farmers have the incentive to cull chickens. This week, the breeding profit remained in the red, with little change. Feed prices have rebounded, and the corn price has strengthened in the short term, leading to an increase in breeding costs. If the current low breeding profit persists, farmers' motivation to recover losses will gradually weaken, accelerating the culling of chickens [15]. Chapter 5: This Week's Supply - Demand Situation 5.1 Supply - Side Situation - **Egg - Laying Hen Inventory**: In November, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.352 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%. The proportion of main - laying hens increased, while that of reserve and to - be - slaughtered hens decreased [18]. - **Chick Situation**: In November, chick sales increased slightly. The total sales volume of commercial - generation chicks of 18 representative enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information was about 39.55 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.02%. Egg - laying hen breeding is still in a loss stage, and the prices of eggs and old hens remain low. Farmers are cautious about the future market, and the order placement of breeding enterprises has not improved significantly. Only in some areas with a slightly higher empty - pen rate is there phased replenishment [20]. - **Culled Chicken Situation**: There is a disagreement between Zhuochuang and Ganglian data. Zhuochuang shows a month - on - month decrease in culled chickens, while Ganglian shows a continuous increase in the number of culled chickens this month, and the market's divergence over the data is increasing [23]. 5.2 Consumption Situation - The egg sales volume in the main sales areas remains weak, and the arrival volume in Dongguan is relatively high [26]. 5.3 Inventory Situation - This week, the inventory in the production and circulation links is neutral, with 1 day in the production link and 1.24 days in the circulation link [28].