国内超细纤维龙头，技术突破开启转型新 ——聚杰微纤首次覆盖报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 盛开(分析师) | 021-23154510 | shengkai@gtht.com | S0880525040044 | | 钟启辉(研究助理) | 021-23185686 | zhongqihui@gtht.com | S0880125042254 | 本报告导读： 公司作为国内超纤龙头，超纤主业转型仿皮面料、无尘洁净制品等高端工业用途迎 来价值拐点。深度布局固态电池、具身智能等前沿科技，捕捉未来发展机会。 投资要点： | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | | | | | | | 营业总收入 | 685 | 600 | 592 | 653 | 749 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

国内超细纤维龙头，技术突破开启转型新 ——聚杰微纤首次覆盖报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 盛开(分析师) | 021-23154510 | shengkai@gtht.com | S0880525040044 | | 钟启辉(研究助理) | 021-23185686 | zhongqihui@gtht.com | S0880125042254 | 本报告导读： 公司作为国内超纤龙头，超纤主业转型仿皮面料、无尘洁净制品等高端工业用途迎 来价值拐点。深度布局固态电池、具身智能等前沿科技，捕捉未来发展机会。 投资要点： | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | | | | | | | 营业总收入 | 685 | 600 | 592 | 653 | 749 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

美股双重上市细则披露，2 位高管任命落 地 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 盛开(分析师) | 021-23154510 | shengkai@gtht.com | S0880525040044 | | 钟启辉(研究助理) | 021-23185686 | zhongqihui@gtht.com | S0880125042254 | 本报告导读： 投资要点： | 风险提示。零售环境恶化，行业竞争加剧，品牌合作关系恶化。 | | --- | | 财务摘要(百万美元) | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 3589 | 3481 | 3651 | 3824 | | (+/-)% | -2.5% | -3.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | | 毛利润 | 2152 | 2074 | 2187 | 2298 | | 归母净利润 | 346 | 268 | 301 | 336 | | (+/-)% | ...

美股双重上市细则披露，2 位高管任命落 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 盛开(分析师) | 021-23154510 | shengkai@gtht.com | S0880525040044 | | 钟启辉(研究助理) | 021-23185686 | zhongqihui@gtht.com | S0880125042254 | 本报告导读： 公司披露美股双重上市细则，旨在提升全球交易流动性。近期公司 CFO 与 TUMI 总裁任命落地，我们预计 25Q4 业绩表现延续 Q3 改善趋势，双重上市有利估值修 复。 投资要点： | 风险提示。零售环境恶化，行业竞争加剧，品牌合作关系恶化。 | | --- | | 财务摘要(百万美元) | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 3589 | 3481 | 3651 | 3824 | | (+/-)% | -2.5% | -3.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the textile and apparel industry [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent recovery in both domestic and international consumer markets makes it an opportune time to invest in quality consumption, focusing on three domestic demand lines and two external demand lines [2][5]. - The core consumer price index (CPI) has shown a stable increase of 1.2% year-on-year as of December 2025, indicating a resilient recovery in demand [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high dividend yields and favorable valuations in identifying investment opportunities within the industry [5]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index has increased by 4.8% since January 2026, outperforming the S&P 500 Weighted Index, which rose by 1.3% [5]. - The report suggests focusing on three domestic demand lines: 1. Companies with strong fundamentals and dividend yields (A-shares above 5%, Hong Kong stocks above 7%), recommending Mercury Home Textiles, Luolai Lifestyle, and Jiangnan Buyi. 2. Companies with valuations at near three-year lows (below 20% percentile) and dividend yields above 7%, recommending Bosideng and TBO [5]. 3. Companies with positive fundamental expectations, recommending Li Ning and Samsonite [5]. - For external demand, the report notes a potential for inventory replenishment driven by improved consumer sentiment in the U.S., with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reaching 56.4, a five-month high [5]. Market Review - The textile and apparel sector in the A-share market rose by 1.32%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.66 percentage points [7]. - The current PE valuation for the textile and apparel sector is 21.66 times, below the historical average of 24.54 times [7][12]. Industry Data Tracking - In December 2025, the retail sales of clothing in China increased by 1.2% year-on-year, while textile and apparel exports decreased by 7.4% [19]. - The report indicates that the cumulative textile and apparel exports for 2025 amounted to approximately $293.77 billion, reflecting a 2.61% year-on-year decline [19]. Recommended Stocks and Valuations - The report provides a detailed table of recommended stocks with their respective earnings forecasts and valuations, all rated as "Overweight" [15][17]. - Notable recommendations include: - Mercury Home Textiles with a PE of 15 and expected net profit of 3.8 billion yuan in 2025 [15]. - Li Ning with a PE of 20 and expected net profit of 25 billion yuan in 2025 [15].

Group 1 - The recently concluded US-India trade agreement has sparked enthusiastic reactions in India, particularly in key export sectors such as the gems and jewelry industry and the textile and apparel sector, with expectations of significant benefits from reduced US tariffs [1][3] - The chairman of the All India Gem and Jewelry Domestic Council expressed satisfaction with the agreement, highlighting the potential for "great benefits" as tariffs on Indian goods are reduced from 50% to 18%, with hopes for further reductions to 0% in the future [3] - The jewelry sector, which previously held a 35% market share in the US, faced severe challenges due to the high tariffs, leading to a complete collapse of Indian jewelry business in the US, but now anticipates a strong rebound with the new tariff reductions [3] Group 2 - The textile and apparel industry representatives in Surat are also optimistic, viewing the agreement as "major news" that will provide a competitive advantage and drive significant growth, as textiles account for 30-35% of India's exports to the US [3] - Surat's textile exports to the US exceed 1 trillion rupees, and industry players are already preparing to meet the anticipated demand, indicating a favorable market outlook in the near future [3]

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.07 [Table_Industry] 纺织服装业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | 领跑，上调全年指引 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | 盛开(分析师) | 021-23154510 | shengkai@gtht.com | S0880525040044 | | 钟启辉(研究助理) | 021-23185686 | zhongqihui@gtht.com | S0880125042254 | 本报告导读： Coach 驱动高质量增长与利润率扩张。年轻化获客和爆款产品矩阵为核心驱动。大 幅上调 FY2026 全年业绩指引。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 纺织服装业《FY26Q3 HOKA 重回高双增速，上 调全年业绩指引》2026.01.31 纺织服装业《25Q4 纺服基金持仓环比基本持平， 12 月服装类零售额同比增长 1.2%》2026.01.25 纺织服装业《美棉价格历史深度复盘——美国、 巴西 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Insights - HOKA has returned to high double-digit growth, with international markets continuing to be a growth engine. The performance in FY26Q3 exceeded management's cautious expectations from FY26Q2. The financial report highlights four key strengths: DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) sales, full-price sales capability, appeal to younger consumers, and strong international market performance. Based on the robust performance in FY26Q3, management has raised the FY26 full-year guidance [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Deckers Outdoor reported FY26Q3 revenue of $1.96 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, and net profit of $481 million, up 5.3%. By brand, HOKA generated $629 million in revenue, growing 18.5%, while UGG brought in $1.305 billion, a 4.9% increase. In terms of sales channels, DTC revenue reached $1.093 billion, up 8.1%, and wholesale revenue was $865 million, up 6.0%. Regionally, international market revenue was $757 million, a 15.0% increase, while domestic revenue in the U.S. was $1.2 billion, growing 2.7% [4]. Highlights - The report identifies four major highlights: 1. HOKA achieved healthy growth in the U.S. DTC channel, with a significant increase in new customer acquisition due to an optimized membership system, enhancing average order value and multi-category purchases. 2. The company maintained a high level of full-price sales despite frequent promotions in the macro environment, with average selling prices (ASP) for HOKA and UGG slightly above the previous year. 3. UGG's performance was strong across both wholesale and direct channels, with product strategies targeting younger consumers (e.g., Tasman, Ultra Mini) and the "Weather Hybrid" series boosting brand strength in the men's category. 4. The international market showed strong momentum, with growth rates (+15%) significantly outpacing domestic performance, as both HOKA and UGG maintained robust dynamics overseas [4]. FY26 Guidance Update - Based on the strong performance in FY26Q3, management has updated the FY26 full-year guidance, raising revenue expectations to $5.4 billion - $5.425 billion (previously $5.35 billion). HOKA's revenue growth is now projected in the mid-teens, while UGG's is expected in the mid-single digits. Diluted EPS is adjusted to $6.80 - $6.85 (previously $6.30 - $6.39), with gross margin expected around 57% (up 100 basis points) due to lower-than-expected tariff impacts. Management anticipates a net tariff impact of only $25 million for FY26, benefiting from better-than-expected pricing actions and inventory turnover timing. Looking ahead to FY2027, HOKA and UGG are expected to continue their growth phase through category expansion and international market share acquisition [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The company is expected to maintain stable performance despite high base effects, with currency fluctuations potentially causing short-term profit disturbances. The expansion of Miu Miu and the consolidation of Versace are anticipated to contribute new revenue streams in 2026. The overall customer base remains robust as the industry transitions into a new normal [2][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections (in million euros) are as follows: - 2024A: 5,432 - 2025E: 5,716 (+5.2%) - 2026E: 6,162 (+7.8%) - 2027E: 6,640 (+7.8%) [4] - Gross profit estimates (in million euros): - 2024A: 4,337 - 2025E: 4,573 - 2026E: 4,935 - 2027E: 5,325 [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million euros): - 2024A: 839 - 2025E: 882 (+5.2%) - 2026E: 959 (+8.7%) - 2027E: 1,046 (+9.0%) [4] Market Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a retail sales growth of approximately high single digits in 2025, leading the industry. The retail growth rate for Q4 2025 is projected to be in the mid-single digits, slightly slowing from Q3. Miu Miu's retail growth rate for Q4 2025 is expected to be between 15-20% [11]. - The company plans to expand Miu Miu's retail space by 10%-15%, focusing on the Eurasian region and further penetrating the U.S. market by 2027. Prada aims to balance its strategic price points while enhancing its product offerings to attract both mass and high-net-worth customers [11]. Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to have a Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio of: - 2025E: 20X - 2026E: 14.88 - 2027E: 13.65 [11] - The Price-to-Book (PB) ratio is expected to decrease from 3.24 in 2024A to 2.42 in 2027E [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The company has shown steady performance despite high base effects, with currency fluctuations potentially causing short-term profit disturbances. The expansion of Miu Miu continues in 2026, and the consolidation of Versace will contribute new revenue streams. The overall customer base remains stable, and the industry is entering a new normal [2][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach €5,432 million in 2024, with a growth rate of 14.9%. By 2027, revenue is expected to increase to €6,640 million, maintaining a growth rate of 7.8% [4]. - Gross profit is forecasted to be €4,337 million in 2024, increasing to €5,325 million by 2027, with a consistent gross margin around 80% [4][15]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from €839 million in 2024 to €1,046 million in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 25.0% in 2024 and around 9.0% in 2027 [4][15]. Market Outlook - The company anticipates a retail sales growth of approximately high single digits for the full year 2025 at constant exchange rates, leading the industry. The retail growth for Q4 2025 is expected to be in the mid-single digits, slightly slowing from Q3 [11]. - Miu Miu is projected to contribute an additional 10%-15% in retail space, focusing on the Eurasian region, with plans to expand into the low-penetration U.S. market by 2027 [11]. - The luxury goods industry is shifting from rapid growth to a "new normal," characterized by market share consolidation among strong brand DNA companies [11].