Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing PMI fell by 0.8 percentage points to 49% in October, marking the lowest level in over two years[1] - The production index decreased by 2.2 percentage points, the largest drop for October since 2009[1] - Export orders declined by 1.9 percentage points, exceeding the drop in new orders by 0.9 percentage points, indicating disruptions from tariff threats and reduced working days[1] Price Trends and PPI Outlook - The purchasing price index for raw materials in manufacturing dropped by 0.7 percentage points to 52.5%, while the factory price index also fell by 0.7 percentage points to 47.5%[2] - Recent PPI trends show stabilization in August and September, with a potential slight negative growth in October, but the decline is expected to be limited[2] - The current round of PPI declines is likely nearing its end, with a higher probability of PPI recovery next year compared to further declines[2] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 50.1% in October, indicating overall stability[2] - The service sector PMI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.2%, while the construction sector PMI fell by 0.2 percentage points to 49.1%[2] - Business activity indices in transportation, accommodation, and entertainment sectors remained above 60%, driven by holiday travel[2] Economic Growth Projections - Increased investment policies are expected to accelerate economic growth momentum by the end of this year and early next year[3] - The National Development and Reform Commission reported that 500 billion yuan in new policy financing has been fully allocated, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan[3] - The anticipated economic growth target for the year is around 5%[3]

Economic Overview - October PMI data indicates a renewed weakening of economic recovery momentum, with manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month and below the seasonal norm[3] - Non-manufacturing PMI slightly increased to 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points, primarily driven by holiday consumption and seasonal service industry demand[3] - Overall, the composite PMI fell to 50.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, reflecting a continued divergence in economic conditions between sectors[3] Manufacturing Sector Insights - Manufacturing PMI at 49.0% indicates a return to low levels for the year, with large enterprises at 49.9%, medium enterprises at 48.7%, and small enterprises at 47.1%, showing increased operational pressure across all sizes[3] - Key sub-indices show production index at 49.7% (down 2.2 percentage points), new orders index at 48.8% (down 0.9 percentage points), and employment index at 48.3% (down 0.2 percentage points), indicating a significant decline in production and demand[3] - Industries such as food processing and automotive show stronger supply and demand, while textiles and chemicals remain below the prosperity line, indicating weak sector performance[3] Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - Non-manufacturing PMI at 50.1% suggests moderate expansion, with construction PMI at 49.1% and service PMI at 50.2%, indicating a mixed performance across sectors[4] - New orders index for non-manufacturing remains weak at 46.0%, reflecting limited short-term demand recovery potential[4] - Employment index for non-manufacturing at 45.2% indicates ongoing labor market pressures, with business activity expectations index rising to 56.1%, suggesting optimism for future operations[4] Policy and Future Outlook - Short-term economic improvement is expected to require stronger policy support, with a focus on the effectiveness of financial tools and special bond allocations in Q4[3] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to influence medium to long-term policy direction, making 2026's economic performance critical for future strategies[3] - Risks include potential export weakness, real estate market downturns, and insufficient policy momentum[4]

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for October 2025 is at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [2] - External disturbances have led to a decline in manufacturing PMI, with new export orders and production indices showing significant drops, particularly in textiles, chemicals, and non-metallic mineral products [2][3] - The service sector remains stable, supported by holiday effects and promotional activities, while the construction sector shows signs of recovery due to government support for infrastructure projects [3] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI has fallen below historical levels for this time of year, with external factors negatively impacting the external demand index [2] - New export orders and production indices have notably decreased, with specific industries like textiles and rubber products falling below critical thresholds [2][3] - The decline in the price index reflects external fluctuations, although some price support is noted from "anti-involution" measures [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's performance is buoyed by holiday spending and promotional events, with high activity in travel-related industries [3] - The construction sector's business activity index has slightly decreased, but government initiatives are expected to enhance support for infrastructure projects [3] - New orders and expectations in the construction sector are showing signs of recovery, indicating potential for improved economic conditions [3] Policy and Economic Outlook - Continuous macroeconomic policy support is essential, with a focus on managing expectations to stimulate domestic demand [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for an economy driven by domestic demand and consumption, aiming to create a positive cycle of expectation improvement leading to economic recovery [3]

Manufacturing Sector - The October Manufacturing PMI index is at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from September[2] - The production index for October is 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points month-on-month[2] - The new orders index stands at 48.8%, reflecting a decline of 0.9 percentage points, with new export orders at 45.9%, down 1.9 percentage points[2] - The raw material inventory index is at 47.3%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points[2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The October Non-Manufacturing PMI index is at 50.1%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, remaining above the threshold[10] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing is at 46.0%, unchanged from September, while the new export orders index is at 46.2%, down 3.6 percentage points[10] - The construction sector's PMI index is at 49.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued contraction[13] Economic Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic policies for counter-cyclical adjustment and cross-cycle deployment as the "14th Five-Year Plan" concludes[1] - A total of 500 billion yuan has been allocated for local government debt to support effective investment, indicating ongoing efforts to stabilize growth[1] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector is at 56.1%, indicating strong confidence among service enterprises[15]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic output of China remains stable, with manufacturing showing signs of weakness while non-manufacturing sectors exhibit growth due to holiday consumption and infrastructure investment [2][3]. Manufacturing Sector Analysis - In October, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, marking the end of a two-month upward trend [2][3]. - All 13 sub-indices of the manufacturing PMI declined, with the production index falling to 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activities [3]. - The new export orders index fell to 45.9%, down 1.9 percentage points, reflecting tightening export demand due to global economic pressures and uncertainties in international trade [4]. Key Industries Performance - Despite the overall decline in manufacturing, three key sectors—high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods—maintained expansion with PMIs of 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1% respectively [5][6]. - These sectors showed resilience, with production and new orders indices around 51%, indicating stable growth supported by domestic market strength and effective policies [6]. Price Trends - Manufacturing prices are showing positive changes, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing experiencing rising purchase and factory price indices [7]. - The consumer goods manufacturing sector saw a decrease in purchase price index by 2.5 percentage points, indicating reduced cost pressures, which is beneficial for profit margins [7]. Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.1%, reflecting ongoing expansion and a positive trend in service sector activities, particularly in transportation and hospitality due to holiday effects [8]. - Infrastructure investment activities are showing signs of acceleration, with the civil engineering construction index rising significantly, suggesting a solid foundation for growth in the fourth quarter [8].

Group 1: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - In October, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.0%, down by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in production activities [1][2] - Both production index and new orders index fell to 49.7% and 48.8%, respectively, reflecting a decline in production and market demand [2] - Large enterprises maintained a PMI above the critical point, with indices at 50.9% for production and 50.1% for new orders, indicating sustained expansion in this segment [2][3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points, indicating slight expansion [4][5] - The service sector's business activity index reached 50.2%, showing improvement, particularly in sectors like transportation and hospitality, which benefited from holiday effects [5] - The construction sector's business activity index slightly declined to 49.1%, but the business activity expectation index improved to 56.0%, suggesting a more optimistic outlook [5] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The comprehensive PMI output index stood at 50.0%, indicating overall stability in production and business activities across sectors [6]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity [1][2] - The production index and new orders index for manufacturing are at 49.7% and 48.8%, respectively, reflecting declines of 2.2 and 0.9 percentage points compared to last month [5] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 49.9%, while medium and small enterprises are at 48.7% and 47.1%, respectively, showing varying degrees of decline in economic sentiment [5] Group 2: Key Industries - High-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries have PMIs of 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1%, respectively, indicating continued expansion and support for the overall manufacturing sector [5] - High-energy-consuming industries have a PMI of 47.3%, down 0.2 percentage points, suggesting a decline in economic activity within this sector [5] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [1][6] - The service sector's business activity index is reported at 50.2%, reflecting a slight increase and improved economic conditions in service-related industries [9] - The construction sector's business activity index is at 49.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, indicating a slight contraction in construction activities [10] Group 4: Market Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for manufacturing is at 52.8%, indicating a generally optimistic outlook among manufacturers [6] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector is at 56.1%, suggesting strong confidence in future industry performance [10] - Overall, the non-manufacturing sector shows signs of stability, with positive changes in investment and consumption-related activities [11]

Core Viewpoint - In October, China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.0%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, while the non-manufacturing business activity index rose slightly to 50.1%, suggesting stability in the overall economy [1][3]. Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, ending a two-month upward trend, with all 13 sub-indices showing declines ranging from 0.1 to 2.6 percentage points [3]. - The manufacturing production index dropped to 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points, indicating a shift from expansion to contraction, although it remains close to the neutral level of 50% [3]. - Factors contributing to the slowdown include pre-holiday demand release and increased international trade uncertainties, leading to cautious production intentions among manufacturers [3][4]. Demand and Export Trends - The new export orders index fell to 45.9%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points, marking the second-lowest point this year, primarily due to global economic pressures and trade uncertainties [4]. - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing, which are crucial for exports, experienced significant tightening in new orders, impacting overall market demand [4][6]. Key Industries Performance - Despite the challenges, the three key industries—high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing—maintained PMIs above 50, indicating continued expansion [6][7]. - The production and new orders indices for these sectors hovered around 51%, reflecting stable growth supported by domestic market strength and effective policy measures [7]. Price Trends and Cost Pressures - In October, the purchasing and factory gate price indices for equipment manufacturing rose for three consecutive months, with the factory price index reaching a new high since June 2024 [7]. - The consumer goods manufacturing sector saw a decrease in the purchasing price index, indicating reduced cost pressures, which is beneficial for profitability in this sector [8]. Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index increased to 50.1%, remaining above the neutral level, with significant contributions from sectors related to consumer spending during the holiday season [10]. - The construction sector showed signs of acceleration, with the civil engineering business activity index rising significantly, indicating a positive outlook for infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter [10].

Core Viewpoint - In October, China's manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.0%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, while the non-manufacturing business activity index slightly increased to 50.1%, suggesting stability in the overall economy [1][2]. Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing PMI ended a two-month rising trend, with all 13 sub-indices declining, reflecting pressure on enterprises [4][5]. - The manufacturing production index fell to 49.7%, dropping 2.2 percentage points, indicating a slight slowdown in production activities [6]. - The new export orders index decreased to 45.9%, marking the second-lowest point this year, primarily due to global economic pressures and uncertainties in international trade [6][7]. - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing maintained expansion, with PMIs of 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1% respectively [9][10]. Price Trends - Manufacturing prices showed positive changes, with the equipment manufacturing purchase price index and factory price index rising for three consecutive months, reaching a new high since June 2024 [11]. - The consumer goods manufacturing purchase price index decreased, indicating reduced cost pressures, which could benefit profit margins in the sector [12]. Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained above 50%, reflecting ongoing expansion, with significant activity in sectors related to consumer travel and holiday spending [14][15]. - The civil engineering construction business activity index rose significantly, indicating a potential acceleration in infrastructure investment activities [16].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.0% in October, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in production activities [1][2] - The production index and new orders index for the manufacturing sector were 49.7% and 48.8%, respectively, reflecting declines of 2.2 and 0.9 percentage points from last month [2] - Large enterprises maintained a PMI above the critical point, with large, medium, and small enterprises' PMIs at 49.9%, 48.7%, and 47.1%, respectively, showing varying degrees of decline [2] Group 2: Key Industries - High-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries continued to expand, with PMIs of 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1%, respectively, all above the overall manufacturing level [3] - High-energy-consuming industries saw a PMI of 47.3%, down 0.2 percentage points, indicating a decrease in economic activity [3] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight recovery in the sector [4] - The service sector's business activity index increased to 50.2%, with significant growth in sectors closely related to consumer travel, such as rail transport and accommodation, which had indices above 60.0% [4] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1%, down 0.2 percentage points, indicating a slight decline in activity [4] Group 4: Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index stood at 50.0%, indicating overall stability in production and business activities across sectors [5]