Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][64]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a weak supply and demand situation in the antimony industry, with domestic antimony ingot prices experiencing a correction. However, large manufacturers are maintaining prices, suggesting limited downside potential [5][48]. - The report highlights that the domestic market is facing weak demand from downstream sectors such as photovoltaics and flame retardants, leading to a sluggish trading environment [4][48]. Summary by Sections Antimony Ore - In April 2025, antimony ore imports reached 4,239 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2,756 tons (+186%), but a year-on-year decrease of 2,096 tons (-33.1%). Cumulative imports from January to April totaled 13,769 tons, down 5,360 tons (-28%) year-on-year [3][11]. - The average import price for antimony ore in April was $5,908 per ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 125% and a year-on-year increase of 48% [11]. Antimony Ingot - Antimony ingot production in April was 6,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10% but a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. Cumulative production from January to April was 25,295 tons, up 5.6% year-on-year [4][18]. - Exports in April were 90 tons, down 34% month-on-month and down 62% year-on-year, with cumulative exports from January to April totaling 247 tons, a decrease of 76% year-on-year [4][21]. Antimony Oxide - Antimony oxide production in April was 6,470 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 32%. Cumulative production from January to April was 27,345 tons, down 21% year-on-year [4][27]. - Exports in April were 957 tons, a month-on-month increase of 56 tons (+6.2%) but a year-on-year decrease of 63.5%. Cumulative exports from January to April totaled 4,405 tons, down 59% year-on-year [4][29]. Downstream Demand - The report notes weak demand for photovoltaic glass, with April production at 2.28 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 16.2% but a year-on-year decrease of 6.7%. Cumulative production from January to April was 7.95 million tons, down 10.9% year-on-year [4][41]. - The production of flame retardants showed growth, with chemical fiber production in April at 7.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [4][32]. Supply and Prices - As of May 19, 2025, domestic antimony ingot prices were 225,000 yuan per ton, up 105,000 yuan (+88%) year-on-year, while international prices were $61,000 per ton, up $48,500 (+369%) year-on-year [4][48]. - The report indicates a tightening supply trend for antimony ore imports, contributing to the price increases observed [48][55]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Hunan Gold and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, which are positioned to benefit from the dual drivers of gold and antimony resources, as well as Huayu Mining, which has increasing production capacity [5][57].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that while demand remains weak, the selling pressure has largely been cleared, and major manufacturers are maintaining prices, suggesting that antimony prices are expected to stabilize [5][57] - The report highlights a significant decrease in antimony ore imports, leading to a tightening supply situation [49] Summary by Sections 1. Upstream Antimony Ore - In March 2025, antimony ore imports were 1,483 tons, a decrease of 1,871 tons or 55.8% month-on-month and a decrease of 2,623 tons or 63.9% year-on-year [3][11] - The average import price for antimony ore in March was $2,631 per ton, down 51.3% [11] 2. Midstream Antimony Ingots - Antimony ingot production in March was 6,778 tons, an increase of 13.8% month-on-month and 16.5% year-on-year [3][20] - Exports in March totaled 137 tons, following 20 tons in January and no exports in February [22] 3. Midstream Antimony Oxide - Antimony oxide production in March was 6,620 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1% but a year-on-year decrease of 24% [27] - Exports in March were 901 tons, an increase of 62 tons or 7.3% month-on-month, but a decrease of 2,738 tons or 75.2% year-on-year [29] 4. Downstream Demand - The production of ABS resin in the first quarter increased by 31.9% year-on-year, with March production at 570,000 tons, up 11.4% month-on-month [35] - The total production of polyester products in the first quarter grew by 12.1% year-on-year [37] - The production of photovoltaic glass in March was 1.97 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.1% but a year-on-year decrease of 11.3% [44] 5. Supply and Prices - As of April 21, 2025, the domestic price of antimony ingots was 237,500 yuan per ton, an increase of 140,000 yuan or 144% year-on-year [52] - The international price of antimony ingots was $58,500 per ton, an increase of $46,800 or 402% year-on-year [52] - Antimony ingot and oxide factory inventories decreased, with antimony oxide inventory at 5,650 tons as of April 18, down 620 tons year-on-year [55]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising trend in antimony prices, driven by supply constraints and demand dynamics, particularly in the photovoltaic glass sector and flame retardants [2][3][5]. Group 1: Antimony Price Trends - On March 13, 2025, the price of antimony ingots (0, Sb≥99.90%, domestic) reached 173,000 yuan/ton, with a 19% increase from February 6 to March 13, 2025 [2]. - The antimony price center has shifted upwards, with domestic prices rising from 84,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2024 to 160,000 yuan/ton by June 28, 2024, despite a slight decline in the second half of the year [3]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The supply of antimony from the Polar Gold mine is expected to continue declining, with a projected production of 12,700 tons in 2024, a 53% year-on-year decrease, accounting for only 10% of global antimony production [4]. - The company's inventory value for antimony dropped significantly from 2.2 million dollars in 2023 to 100,000 dollars in 2024, indicating substantial sales of existing inventory [4]. Group 3: Demand Outlook - Domestic demand for antimony is expected to remain high, driven by the brominated flame retardant sector, with household appliances accounting for 22% of this demand in 2021 [5]. - The photovoltaic sector is also showing signs of recovery, with daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass increasing by 8.2% to 86,800 tons as of March 7, 2025, compared to the low point in February [5]. Group 4: Global Supply-Demand Gap - The global supply of antimony is projected to grow at a CAGR of 1.4% from 2024 to 2027, while demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.4%, leading to a persistent supply-demand gap [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for domestic antimony prices in the medium to long term [5]. Core Insights - Antimony prices are expected to rise due to a decrease in supply and an increase in demand, with domestic antimony prices reaching 173,000 CNY per ton as of March 13, 2025, reflecting a 19% increase from early February [1][2]. - The supply of antimony from the Polar Gold mine is projected to continue declining, with a significant drop in production expected in 2024 [3]. - Domestic demand for antimony is anticipated to remain high, driven by the brominated flame retardant sector and the recovery of photovoltaic glass production [4]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The antimony price center has shifted upward, with domestic prices rising from 84,000 CNY per ton at the beginning of 2024 to 160,000 CNY per ton by June 28, 2024 [2]. - The global antimony supply is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.4% from 2024 to 2027, while demand is projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.4%, leading to a persistent supply-demand gap [4]. Key Companies and Financial Projections - The report highlights key companies such as Hunan Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Huayu Mining, with specific earnings per share (EPS) forecasts and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios provided for 2023 to 2025 [6]. - Hunan Gold is projected to have an EPS of 1.06 CNY in 2025, with a PE ratio of 22.4 [6]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The report notes that the demand for antimony in the brominated flame retardant sector is stable, with household appliances contributing significantly to this demand [4]. - The recovery of antimony exports and the anticipated increase in photovoltaic glass production are expected to support higher domestic antimony prices [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that both domestic and international antimony prices are rising, with international prices exceeding 430,000 RMB/ton and domestic prices nearing 200,000 RMB/ton, indicating a significant price gap [1] - The article outlines a logical chain where China's export control on antimony products leads to rising international prices, resulting in domestic shortages and further price increases [1] - Four expectations are identified that may drive antimony prices and related stocks higher: (1) The current price increase is not only due to the price gap but also a return to intrinsic value; (2) Stock valuations need urgent reassessment; (3) The market may not have fully priced in the impact of reduced supply from extreme gold sources; (4) Demand from downstream applications, particularly in electronics and semiconductors, remains strong and is closely linked to antimony [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in antimony prices is driven by both domestic and international market dynamics, with significant price rises observed in both markets due to supply constraints and rising demand from the photovoltaic sector [2][3]. Group 1: Antimony Price Trends - As of March 3, 2025, domestic antimony prices reached 165,000 CNY/ton, marking a 16% increase from February 6 to March 3, 2025 [2]. - The external antimony price hit 50,300 USD/ton (approximately 367,000 CNY/ton), resulting in a price gap of 202,000 CNY/ton between domestic and international markets [2]. - Antimony price movements in 2024 can be divided into two phases, with a notable 89% increase in domestic prices from the beginning of the year until September 15, attributed to geopolitical tensions and strong demand from the photovoltaic sector [3]. Group 2: Photovoltaic Sector Impact - The production of photovoltaic glass increased to 373,200 tons from February 22 to February 28, 2025, reflecting a 6.7% week-on-week rise, indicating a recovery in production levels [4]. - New policies, such as the "430 policy" and "530 policy," are expected to drive a rush in photovoltaic installations, with projects connected to the grid by April 30, 2025, benefiting from full subsidies [4]. Group 3: Antimony Supply and Export Dynamics - Antimony concentrate imports fell significantly to 2,069 tons in December 2024, a 63.8% decrease from the previous month, highlighting a growing shortage of raw materials for smelting due to reduced long-term agreements [5]. - Antimony oxide exports have begun to recover, with November and December 2024 export volumes reaching 776 tons and 1,571 tons, respectively, which are 26% and 53% of the pre-control average [6]. - The expectation of price gap restoration between domestic and international markets is increasing, suggesting a potential for continued price increases in domestic antimony [6].