全球锑矿供给未来几年将呈现下降趋势，国内龙头企业产量难以大幅提 升，海外矿石供应紧张，主要矿山复产遥遥无期。即使光伏需求走弱， 全球锑需求仍预计每年增长 2-3%，供需缺口持续扩大。 预计 2026 年铁矿石市场将继续保持高位，均价在 20 万至 25 万元之间， 峰值可能达到 25 万至 30 万元。2027 年和 2028 年的市场缺口预计仍 将维持在 20%以上。 推荐关注华锡有色，其业绩中 40%来自锡，40%来自锑，未来五年内 铁矿和锌产量权益量将增加。在锡价 30 万元/吨和锑价 20 万元/吨的假 设下，2026 年公司合理利润接近 15 亿元，估值可达 300 亿元。 再再再 call【锑】：预期转向现实，主升浪或临近 20251123 摘要 T 板块价格受政策利好和电子盘交易活跃度增加影响，从 11 月初的 14.5 万元快速上涨至现货市场成交价 18.5 万至 19 万元之间。出口禁 令取消提振市场信心，电子盘 T7 品种上线后价格迅速上涨并稳定在 18 万元以上。 出口恢复对 T 板块需求结构产生显著影响，历史上出口量占总产量约 40%，主要用于阻燃剂生产。出口恢复将大幅提升整体需求，推 ...

（2025 年）5 月至 9 月，中国氧化锑的出口量仅为正常月均水平的 2%-7%， 处于非常低的水平。随着对美及非美国家出口限制解除，中国整体锑出口量预 计将显著增长，从而推动国内外锑价上涨。 解除对美出口限制有望拉动中国锑出口增长，海外锑价溢价较高，进口 紧张局面预计延续。内盘锑价预计继续上涨，外盘锑价可能回落，两者 价差将逐步收敛。 华锡有色具备投资潜力，公司有扩建计划并处于上行周期，将受益于价 格提升逻辑。高峰矿和铜坑矿正在扩建，未来产能有望显著提升，公司 具备较大的发展空间和投资潜力。 锑行业观点更新 20251113 摘要 中国解除对美锑出口限制，预计将显著提升锑出口量，尤其对美出口， 从而推动国内外锑价上涨。此前 5-9 月氧化锑出口量极低，政策放开有 望扭转这一局面。 全球锑资源稀缺性凸显，静态出采比仅为 20 年，低于铜和锂。全球锡 矿产量自 2011 年以来显著下降，中国锡矿产量降幅尤为明显，主要受 矿石品位下滑和富矿消耗影响。 俄罗斯吉金黄金公司锡矿产量大幅下滑，预计未来两年产量维持低位。 国内增量主要来自高峰矿和铜坑矿扩建，但需等到 2027-2028 年才能 释放；国外增量主要来自华 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: Antimony and Related Markets Antimony Price Dynamics - Recent increase in bromine prices has compressed antimony price potential: Bromine prices rose by 16,000 CNY/ton, which, due to a cost ratio of 3:1 with antimony, effectively limited the potential increase in antimony prices by 50,000 CNY/ton, leading to market expectations being constrained and small traders selling off, accelerating the price decline [1][2][4] - Antimony exports have decreased significantly, but potential demand remains strong: Antimony exports fell by 45%-50% year-on-year in the first two months of the year, but some antimony oxide was exported in the form of flame retardant masterbatch, which was not accounted for. A recovery in exports is expected post-May Day, alongside stricter export audits, which may push antimony prices upward [1][5] Zinc Market Insights - Significant decline in zinc imports indicates potential price rebound: Zinc imports dropped by 80%-90% year-on-year in March, with the decline expanding. This reduction, combined with increased exports and alleviated cost pressures, suggests that zinc prices have likely bottomed out and may see an upward trend in May [1][6] Photovoltaic Glass Market Stability - Stable production levels in the photovoltaic glass sector: Despite a slowdown in installations, weekly production remains at 540,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 2%. Profit margins are still positive, indicating that the industry is not in a state of significant loss. Production is expected to remain stable post-531 [1][7][9] Key Factors Influencing Antimony Prices - Supply-demand tightness supports antimony prices: Antimony prices only fell by 12% last year despite export controls and weak demand, indicating a stronger-than-expected supply-demand tightness. China accounts for half of global antimony supply, with leading companies controlling significant market shares [1][3][8] - Impact of Myanmar earthquake on supply: The earthquake in Myanmar has halted mining operations for at least six months, affecting supply to the European and American markets. Recovery in overseas demand post-trade war may drive prices higher [1][3][13] Investment Opportunities - Antimony sector valuations are low, presenting investment opportunities: Domestic antimony prices are expected to rise above 300,000 CNY, with companies like Huaxi Nonferrous, Huayu Mining, and Hunan Gold being undervalued and worthy of attention [1][3][11][12][14] Conclusion - The antimony market is currently experiencing a complex interplay of price pressures from bromine costs, export dynamics, and supply constraints due to external factors like natural disasters. The photovoltaic glass market remains stable, and there are promising investment opportunities in undervalued companies within the antimony sector.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that both domestic and international antimony prices are rising, with international prices exceeding 430,000 RMB/ton and domestic prices nearing 200,000 RMB/ton, indicating a significant price gap [1] - The article outlines a logical chain where China's export control on antimony products leads to rising international prices, resulting in domestic shortages and further price increases [1] - Four expectations are identified that may drive antimony prices and related stocks higher: (1) The current price increase is not only due to the price gap but also a return to intrinsic value; (2) Stock valuations need urgent reassessment; (3) The market may not have fully priced in the impact of reduced supply from extreme gold sources; (4) Demand from downstream applications, particularly in electronics and semiconductors, remains strong and is closely linked to antimony [1]