Summary of Antimony Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The antimony industry is experiencing significant changes due to China's recent policy adjustments regarding antimony exports to the U.S. This is expected to substantially increase antimony export volumes, particularly to the U.S., thereby driving up domestic and international antimony prices [2][3][4]. Key Points Policy Changes - In late October, the Ministry of Commerce released export declaration conditions for state-owned trading enterprises for 2026-2027, providing clarity on future export trade and alleviating uncertainties regarding export policies [3] - On November 7, the Ministry announced the lifting of export restrictions on antimony to the U.S., effective until November 27, 2026, which is anticipated to boost China's antimony export volumes [3][4]. Supply Dynamics - Antimony is characterized by its strong scarcity, with a static extraction ratio of only 20 years, significantly lower than copper and lithium, which have ratios of 36 and 125 years, respectively [5]. - Global tin production has decreased from 178,000 tons in 2011 to an estimated 125,000 tons in 2024, a decline of 30%. China's tin production has dropped from 150,000 tons to 56,000 tons, a 63% decrease, primarily due to declining ore grades and the depletion of rich ores [5]. - The production of tin by Russia's Jikin Gold Company has also significantly declined, from 27,000 tons in 2023 to 12,700 tons in 2024, a 53% year-on-year drop [5]. Demand Trends - The demand for antimony in photovoltaic applications has surged, increasing from 6% in 2019 to 27% currently. The main sources of demand for antimony are flame retardants (45%), photovoltaics (27%), and lead-acid batteries (17%) [6]. - After a peak in substitution earlier this year, remaining demand is primarily rigid, with limited further substitution potential [6]. Market Conditions - Current inventories of antimony among refineries, traders, and users are low, leading to active market inquiries and increased transaction volumes, which support rising antimony prices [6]. - The domestic antimony price is expected to continue rising, while international prices may decline, leading to a gradual narrowing of the price gap between domestic and international markets [4][7]. Investment Opportunities - Huaxi Nonferrous is highlighted as a company with significant investment potential due to its expansion plans and being in an upward cycle. The company is expanding its Gaofeng and Copper Pit mines, with expected production capacities of 11,600 tons/year and 18,000 tons/year, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of over 60% and 130% [4][9]. Additional Insights - Historical tin price fluctuations have been influenced by supply, demand, and policy factors, with notable events including supply reductions due to environmental regulations and economic downturns impacting demand [8]. - The current environment suggests a continued tight supply situation for antimony, with limited global supply growth anticipated in the near term [5][6].

Summary of Conference Call on T Sector Industry Overview - The T sector has experienced a significant price increase due to favorable policies and increased trading activity on electronic platforms, with prices rising from 145,000 CNY to between 185,000 CNY and 190,000 CNY since early November [1][2] - The cancellation of the export ban has boosted market confidence, leading to a rapid price increase and stabilization above 180,000 CNY [1][2] - Export recovery is expected to significantly impact the demand structure of the T sector, with historical export volumes accounting for approximately 40% of total production, primarily for flame retardant production [1][6] Key Points on Price Trends - The T sector's pricing factors have shifted from photovoltaic glass to exports, with expectations of a price surge due to increased overseas safety stock and rising trade costs [1][10] - Predictions indicate that domestic T element prices could rise to between 250,000 CNY and 300,000 CNY by the end of this year or early next year [1][10][11] - The overall demand for antimony is projected to grow by 2-3% annually, despite potential weaknesses in photovoltaic demand [3][12] Market Dynamics - The supply of antimony ore is expected to decline in the coming years, with domestic leading enterprises unable to significantly increase production and overseas supply remaining tight [3][12] - The export demand for photovoltaic glass has drastically decreased from 2,000-2,500 tons per month to around 100 tons, indicating a near-zero export demand [9] Company Insights - Huaxi Nonferrous is highlighted as a key player, with 40% of its revenue from tin and 40% from antimony, and expected increases in iron and zinc production over the next five years [3][14] - The company is projected to achieve reasonable profits of approximately 1.5 billion CNY by 2026 under certain price assumptions, with a potential valuation of 30 billion CNY [3][14][15] - Other companies of interest include Huayu Mining and Hunan Gold, both of which have strong growth potential and favorable valuations [14][16] Additional Considerations - The T sector's future price trends appear optimistic due to policy support and increased trading activity, with potential for a new upward price cycle if export recovery progresses smoothly [4][10] - The overall market for iron ore is expected to remain high, with average prices projected between 200,000 CNY and 250,000 CNY in 2026 [13]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: Antimony and Related Markets Antimony Price Dynamics - Recent increase in bromine prices has compressed antimony price potential: Bromine prices rose by 16,000 CNY/ton, which, due to a cost ratio of 3:1 with antimony, effectively limited the potential increase in antimony prices by 50,000 CNY/ton, leading to market expectations being constrained and small traders selling off, accelerating the price decline [1][2][4] - Antimony exports have decreased significantly, but potential demand remains strong: Antimony exports fell by 45%-50% year-on-year in the first two months of the year, but some antimony oxide was exported in the form of flame retardant masterbatch, which was not accounted for. A recovery in exports is expected post-May Day, alongside stricter export audits, which may push antimony prices upward [1][5] Zinc Market Insights - Significant decline in zinc imports indicates potential price rebound: Zinc imports dropped by 80%-90% year-on-year in March, with the decline expanding. This reduction, combined with increased exports and alleviated cost pressures, suggests that zinc prices have likely bottomed out and may see an upward trend in May [1][6] Photovoltaic Glass Market Stability - Stable production levels in the photovoltaic glass sector: Despite a slowdown in installations, weekly production remains at 540,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 2%. Profit margins are still positive, indicating that the industry is not in a state of significant loss. Production is expected to remain stable post-531 [1][7][9] Key Factors Influencing Antimony Prices - Supply-demand tightness supports antimony prices: Antimony prices only fell by 12% last year despite export controls and weak demand, indicating a stronger-than-expected supply-demand tightness. China accounts for half of global antimony supply, with leading companies controlling significant market shares [1][3][8] - Impact of Myanmar earthquake on supply: The earthquake in Myanmar has halted mining operations for at least six months, affecting supply to the European and American markets. Recovery in overseas demand post-trade war may drive prices higher [1][3][13] Investment Opportunities - Antimony sector valuations are low, presenting investment opportunities: Domestic antimony prices are expected to rise above 300,000 CNY, with companies like Huaxi Nonferrous, Huayu Mining, and Hunan Gold being undervalued and worthy of attention [1][3][11][12][14] Conclusion - The antimony market is currently experiencing a complex interplay of price pressures from bromine costs, export dynamics, and supply constraints due to external factors like natural disasters. The photovoltaic glass market remains stable, and there are promising investment opportunities in undervalued companies within the antimony sector.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that both domestic and international antimony prices are rising, with international prices exceeding 430,000 RMB/ton and domestic prices nearing 200,000 RMB/ton, indicating a significant price gap [1] - The article outlines a logical chain where China's export control on antimony products leads to rising international prices, resulting in domestic shortages and further price increases [1] - Four expectations are identified that may drive antimony prices and related stocks higher: (1) The current price increase is not only due to the price gap but also a return to intrinsic value; (2) Stock valuations need urgent reassessment; (3) The market may not have fully priced in the impact of reduced supply from extreme gold sources; (4) Demand from downstream applications, particularly in electronics and semiconductors, remains strong and is closely linked to antimony [1]