Group 1 - The stock price of BaiRun Co., Ltd. has declined by 2.62% on September 3, reaching 26.03 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 224 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.18%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 27.315 billion CNY. The stock has experienced a cumulative decline of 7.5% over the past three days [1] - BaiRun Co., Ltd. was established on June 19, 1997, and went public on March 25, 2011. The company is primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of flavor and fragrance products, as well as pre-mixed cocktails. The revenue composition is as follows: alcoholic products account for 87.14%, food flavorings 11.34%, and others 1.52% [1] Group 2 - According to data from the top ten holdings of funds, one fund under Everbright Pramerica holds a significant position in BaiRun Co., Ltd. The Everbright Pramerica Consumer Stock A Fund (008234) held 253,900 shares in the second quarter, representing 4.04% of the fund's net value, making it the ninth largest holding. The estimated floating loss today is approximately 177,700 CNY, with a total floating loss of 535,700 CNY during the three-day decline [2] - The Everbright Pramerica Consumer Stock A Fund (008234) was established on April 23, 2020, with a current scale of 157 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 11.91%, ranking 3409 out of 4222 in its category; the one-year return is 32.11%, ranking 2958 out of 3783; and since inception, the return is 16.8% [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of Everbright Pramerica Consumer Stock A Fund is Ma Pengfei, who has been in the position for 5 years and 134 days. The total asset size of the fund is 659 million CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 16.82% and the worst being -29.26% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that BaiRun Co., Ltd. (SZ 002568) has conducted an investor survey, providing insights into its business operations and revenue composition [1] - As of the first half of 2025, BaiRun's revenue composition is as follows: pre-mixed cocktails account for 87.14%, flavor and fragrance manufacturing accounts for 11.34%, and other businesses account for 1.52% [1] - The current market capitalization of BaiRun Co., Ltd. is 29.2 billion yuan [1]

Core Insights - Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. (Bairun Shares) reported a revenue of 1.489 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 389 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [2] - The company's main business is divided into two segments: alcoholic beverages and flavoring agents, with alcoholic beverages accounting for 88.49% of total revenue [2] - Bairun Shares maintains a leading position in the pre-mixed cocktail market, with its core brand "RIO" holding the number one market share nationally for several consecutive years [2] Business Segments - The alcoholic beverages segment, primarily consisting of pre-mixed cocktails and spirits, is the core revenue source for the company [2] - The flavoring agents segment contributes 11.51% to the total revenue [2] Market Position and Strategy - Bairun Shares continues to strengthen its brand advantage through channel innovation, product innovation, and digital marketing [2] - The company invests in enhancing R&D capabilities, expanding its product matrix, and strengthening brand building to address increasing market competition [2] - The Laizhou Distillery, a key whiskey production base, leads in production capacity and barrel aging quantity, supporting the long-term development of the spirits business [2]

Summary of the Conference Call on Baijiu Industry and Company Insights Company and Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on **Bairun Co., Ltd.**, a leading player in the **premixed cocktail market** in **Anhui Province**. The company is facing challenges in sales and market dynamics for its **Rio** brand of premixed cocktails [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance - In **2024**, Bairun's sales in Anhui for premixed cocktails reached **¥1.18 billion**, a slight decline from **¥1.2 billion** in **2023**, but a significant increase from **¥750 million** in **2022** [2]. - The sales decline is attributed to reduced profit margins for distributors and increased competition from low-priced products on online platforms [1][3]. Market Challenges - The company is experiencing a **10% price drop** in the market due to excess inventory and aggressive discounting by distributors [3][5]. - Bairun's strategy has shifted towards channel expansion rather than consumer growth, as the market share is limited [3][31]. Product and Channel Strategy - The **Rio** brand targets consumers aged **18-35**, but male consumer growth has been limited, leading to a decline in sales of stronger products [9]. - The company has introduced various alcohol content levels but faces challenges in pricing consistency between online and offline channels [9][10]. - The **light enjoyment** product line is struggling to gain traction due to lack of dedicated marketing efforts and competition from beer [12][13]. Distribution and Inventory Management - Bairun has implemented measures to address market chaos, including penalties for distributors and reduced marketing expenses, but these are seen as temporary fixes [5][34]. - The company has a **healthy inventory turnover** target of **1.5 to 2 months**, with current levels in Anhui nearing this target, while other provinces may have longer turnover periods [18]. Competitive Landscape - Bairun's **Rio** brand maintains a competitive edge in the premixed cocktail market due to strong brand recognition and pricing strategies, despite the presence of other brands [25]. - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in the **whiskey market**, but the performance has been underwhelming, with most distributors achieving only a few million in annual sales [32]. Future Outlook - The company aims for a sales target of **¥1.44 billion** in **2025**, maintaining the same product structure as in **2024** [22]. - There is a belief that significant improvements in channel management and product offerings may take until the end of **2025** to materialize [33]. Additional Important Insights - The company lacks a dedicated team for the restaurant channel, which is seen as a significant growth area [13][14]. - The pricing structure for various products shows significant variability, with **strong refreshing** products having low margins and relying heavily on rebates for profitability [11][26][27]. - The overall market environment is expected to remain challenging, with a **30% slowdown** in sales turnover compared to the previous year [16]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the challenges and strategies of Bairun Co., Ltd. in the premixed cocktail market.

Core Viewpoint - RIO's parent company, Bairun Co., is facing significant performance pressure as it transitions from a period of growth driven by the "stay-at-home economy" to a decline in revenue and profit, particularly in the ready-to-drink cocktail segment [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Bairun's total revenue was 1.489 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 8.56% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 389 million yuan, down 3.32% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 356 million yuan, a decrease of 9.04% [1]. - Revenue from alcoholic beverages, which account for 88% of total revenue, was 1.297 billion yuan, down 9.35% year-on-year [1]. Market Challenges - The North and West China markets are facing significant challenges, with revenues declining by 21.43% and 23.05% respectively, despite an increase in the number of distributors [2]. - RIO is experiencing dual pressures from declining internal growth momentum and disruptive shifts in consumer value [2][3]. Product and Competitive Landscape - RIO, once a market leader in the ready-to-drink cocktail segment, is losing its growth momentum due to weak consumption scenarios and a lack of price competitiveness compared to beer [3][4]. - The rise of diverse low-alcohol beverages, such as fruit wines and non-alcoholic beers, is further eroding RIO's market share [4]. - RIO's new product, jelly wine, aims to integrate the "tipsy" experience into casual snacking, but faces challenges in consumer motivation [4]. Sales Channels - Offline channels accounted for over 89% of RIO's revenue, which saw a year-on-year decline of 9.63%, while online channels made up about 11% with a slight decline of 0.57% [4]. - RIO's low sales in ready-to-drink formats indicate a misalignment with consumer purchasing behaviors, which favor impulse buys in physical stores [5][7]. Strategic Shift - In response to the stagnation in RIO's growth, Bairun is shifting its strategic focus towards developing its whiskey business, which has begun operations and is expected to contribute to future revenue [9][10]. - The whiskey segment aims to capture different market segments, with brands like "Bailide" targeting mass consumption and "Laizhou" focusing on premium offerings [9][10]. Profitability Concerns - Despite a relatively stable asset structure, Bairun faces risks related to high sales expenses, which have pressured profit margins [14][15]. - The company's gross profit margin for its main business was 70.51%, but high sales expenses of 301 million yuan significantly impacted profitability [14].

Core Viewpoint - RIO is expanding its product line by launching a new 12-degree cocktail, aiming to capture a broader market segment amidst declining sales and increasing competition in the ready-to-drink (RTD) beverage sector [2][3][4]. Product Launch and Market Position - The new 12-degree cocktail, available in three flavors, marks a significant increase in alcohol content compared to RIO's previous offerings, which ranged from 3 to 8 degrees [2][3]. - The product was launched online on August 5, but initial sales figures were disappointing, with minimal units sold on platforms like Tmall [11][12]. - RIO's core business is primarily driven by its cocktail series, which includes various sub-brands targeting different consumer preferences [3][6]. Consumer Trends and Target Audience - The shift towards higher alcohol content is a response to changing consumer preferences, particularly among younger male consumers and heavy drinkers, while still targeting female consumers with marketing strategies [7][8]. - The introduction of the 12-degree cocktail aims to fill the market gap between low and high alcohol beverages, differentiating itself from lower-alcohol products criticized for being too sweet [7][8]. Competitive Landscape - RIO faces increasing competition from both established brands and new entrants in the RTD market, including traditional liquor companies that have begun to offer their own pre-mixed cocktails [14][15]. - The company's market share has been challenged by the emergence of alternative beverages, leading to a decline in sales and a reduction in the number of distributors [16][17]. Financial Performance - RIO's parent company, BaiRun Co., reported a revenue decline of 6.61% in 2024, with a continued downward trend into 2025 [16][17]. - The pre-mixed cocktail segment, which constitutes nearly 90% of RIO's revenue, has been the primary driver of this decline, with a reported 7.17% decrease in revenue from this category [16][17]. Marketing and Brand Strategy - RIO's historical marketing strategies, including high-profile sponsorships and celebrity endorsements, have contributed to its initial success, but the brand is now struggling to maintain its relevance in a saturated market [13][15]. - The company has increased its marketing expenditures in recent years, but the effectiveness of these efforts is being questioned as consumer interest wanes [15][17].

Core Viewpoint - RIO's launch of a new 12-degree flavored cocktail aims to capture a segment of the market that has shifted towards higher alcohol content, despite facing declining sales and increased competition in the low-alcohol beverage sector [1][2][16]. Product Launch and Market Position - RIO introduced its 12-degree flavored cocktails, available in three flavors: White Peach Cherry Blossom, Ice Wine Jasmine, and Golden Osmanthus, with a 300ml packaging [1]. - The pricing for the new product is set at 29.9 yuan per bottle and 129 yuan for a six-pack [1]. - This launch breaks RIO's previous alcohol content ceiling, which ranged from 3 to 8 degrees [2][4]. Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The low-alcohol beverage market is becoming increasingly competitive, with RIO facing challenges from both established brands and new entrants [2][14]. - There is a noticeable shift in consumer preferences, with younger consumers moving away from RIO's traditional offerings, leading to questions about the brand's appeal [2][10]. - The initial online sales performance of the new product was underwhelming, with limited units sold on platforms like Tmall [8][9]. Financial Performance - RIO's parent company, BaiRun Co., reported a decline in revenue and profit for 2024, with a 6.61% drop in total revenue to 30.48 billion yuan [16]. - The pre-mixed cocktail segment, which constitutes nearly 90% of RIO's revenue, was the primary contributor to this decline, with a 7.17% decrease in revenue [17]. - The company has experienced a continuous decline in revenue for five consecutive quarters, indicating a challenging market environment [16]. Strategic Shifts - RIO's strategy to increase alcohol content in its products is seen as an attempt to cater to a broader audience, including young males and heavy drinkers, while also filling a market gap between low and high alcohol beverages [5]. - The brand continues to target female consumers with marketing strategies that emphasize social drinking and gifting [6]. - RIO's efforts to innovate and diversify its product offerings are ongoing, but the effectiveness of these strategies remains uncertain in the face of stiff competition and changing consumer preferences [21].

Core Viewpoint - Genki Forest is re-entering the low-alcohol beverage market with its new sparkling wine product "Lang," which has an alcohol content of 9 degrees and is packaged in 500ml cans, priced between 12.4 to 13.2 yuan per can [3][5][20]. Group 1: Product Launch and Market Positioning - The "Lang" product features two flavors: grapefruit and lemon, and is positioned to target male consumers and social drinking scenarios, contrasting with RIO's offerings which are more female-oriented [5][6]. - "Lang" is directly competing with RIO's Qiangshuang, which has been a significant revenue driver for its parent company, Bai Run [20][21]. - Genki Forest previously attempted to enter the low-alcohol market with "Pingye Xida," but it did not gain traction due to the company's developmental stage at that time [6][8]. Group 2: Brand Strategy and Challenges - Genki Forest employs a brand "migration" strategy, reusing brand names across different product types, as seen with the "Lang" brand which was previously used for a less successful carbonated juice [8][9]. - The company faces challenges in effectively managing both soft drink and alcoholic beverage segments, as few companies globally successfully operate in both markets [15][17]. - Establishing a dedicated alcoholic beverage division may be necessary for Genki Forest to succeed in this new market, but it remains uncertain if the company will make such a commitment [18][26]. Group 3: Competitive Analysis - RIO's Qiangshuang has a stronger cost control capability due to its in-house production, while "Lang" relies on external manufacturing, impacting pricing strategies [21][24]. - RIO has established brand recognition in the low-alcohol market, which poses a significant challenge for "Lang" to gain consumer awareness and market share [20][21]. - "Lang" does not currently present significant competitive advantages over RIO, but it may still find a niche if it can differentiate itself from other low-alcohol products [24][26]. Group 4: Future Prospects - Genki Forest is not stopping with "Lang" and plans to introduce more alcoholic products, including a milk foam wine, indicating a long-term strategy in the alcoholic beverage sector [27][28]. - The company’s ongoing investments and acquisitions in the alcoholic beverage space suggest a serious commitment to this market, although it still has a long way to go in terms of operational expertise [27][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company shows resilience in its ready-to-drink cocktail business, with a projected recovery in growth for 2025. The whisky business has entered the product sales phase, which is expected to be a significant highlight for 2025 [6]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast based on the latest performance and increased expectations for whisky business profitability, projecting EPS of 0.77, 1.00, and 1.29 for 2025-2027 [6]. Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profitability - 2024 projected revenue is 30.48 billion, with a decline of 6.61% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected at 7.19 billion, down 11.15% year-on-year [2][6]. - For 2025 Q1, revenue is estimated at 740 million, a decrease of 8.1% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to be 180 million, an increase of 7.03% year-on-year [6]. Revenue Growth Forecast - Revenue growth rates are projected at 23.00% for 2025, 23.45% for 2026, and 20.43% for 2027 [2][8]. - The ready-to-drink cocktail business is expected to recover in 2025, with an estimated revenue of around 650 million for Q1 [6]. Profitability Metrics - Gross margin is expected to improve from 69.67% in 2024 to 73.08% by 2027 [2][8]. - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 23.59% in 2024 to 24.37% in 2027 [8]. Valuation Ratios - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 40.87 in 2024 to 20.16 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [2][8]. - The P/B ratio is projected to decline from 6.27 in 2024 to 4.05 in 2027 [2][8]. Business Segment Insights Ready-to-Drink Cocktails - The ready-to-drink cocktail segment generated 26.8 billion in revenue for 2024, showing a slight decline but with a stable development outlook due to consumer loyalty and ongoing product updates [6]. Whisky Business - The whisky segment has launched new products and is expected to contribute significantly to revenue in 2025, with a strong product pipeline and marketing strategy [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, primarily due to strong sales pressure on its flagship product, while also indicating improvements in gross margin and a focus on key product marketing [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 720 million yuan, down 11.2% [1][2]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 660 million yuan, with net profit of 140 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year revenue decline of 18.0% [2]. - Cash receipts for 2024 totaled 3.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.2% year-on-year [2]. Product Performance - The company's food flavor segment generated revenue of 340 million yuan, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year, while the ready-to-drink cocktail segment reported revenue of 2.68 billion yuan, down 7.2% [2]. - The ready-to-drink cocktail segment faced pressure due to a high base from the previous year, expected to account for nearly half of total revenue [2]. Channel Analysis - Revenue from offline, digital, and ready-to-drink channels in 2024 was 2.71 billion yuan, 270 million yuan, and 40 million yuan, respectively, with declines of 1.5%, 30.8%, and 43.6% year-on-year [3]. - The company shifted its focus back to offline development post-pandemic, reducing online investment and maintaining price expectations [3]. Margin and Cost Structure - The gross margin for 2024 was 69.7%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from cost reductions [4]. - The gross margin for food flavors was 69.1%, up 1.5 percentage points, while ready-to-drink cocktails had a gross margin of 70.0%, up 2.4 percentage points [4]. - Sales and management expense ratios increased by 2.9 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively, with marketing expenses rising to 400 million yuan, an increase of 11.7% [4]. Future Outlook - The ready-to-drink cocktail business is stabilizing, and new whiskey products are being rolled out, with expectations for earnings per share (EPS) of 0.78, 0.89, and 1.03 yuan for 2025-2027 [2][5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a 34 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, leading to an upgrade to a "strongly recommended" rating [5].