Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The agricultural markets are expected to be influenced by three main themes in 2026: robust supply, subdued demand, and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][2][8] - The resolution of the US-China trade dispute is crucial for US-origin demand, particularly for soybeans, as a trade deal could significantly increase Chinese purchases [1][2] - The ongoing Ukraine war complicates the situation, especially with recent attacks on Russian oil facilities impacting grain exports [1][2] Market Dynamics - **Soy Oil**: The market for soybean oil is projected to be bullish due to strong demand and constrained supply, with prices expected to average 58 cents per pound in 2026, up from 51 cents currently [3][6][114] - **Wheat and Soymeal**: A bearish outlook is maintained for wheat and soymeal, with prices expected to hover around $5 per bushel in 2026 due to strong supply and flat import demand from major buyers [3][6][24][28] - **Corn**: Corn prices are expected to remain supported in the short term due to strong US exports and potential USDA downgrades to US yields, but a reversal towards $4 per bushel could occur in the second half of 2026 [3][6][63] Geopolitical and Weather Factors - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the US-China trade relations and the Ukraine conflict, continues to add uncertainty to agricultural markets [1][2][8] - Weather conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly La Niña effects, are being closely monitored, with early signs of dryness in Argentina and Brazil [2][19] Price Forecasts - **Wheat**: Expected to finish strong with a 30 million ton increase year-over-year across the top seven export nations, but prices are projected to remain depressed [6][24] - **Corn**: Prices are expected to stabilize around $4.5 per bushel in the next six months, with a potential drop to $4 per bushel in the latter half of 2026 [6][63] - **Soybeans**: Prices are anticipated to trade within the $11-$11.5 per bushel range into Q1 2026, driven primarily by Chinese demand [6][91] Additional Insights - The sugar market is expected to recover, moving from a 4 million ton deficit in 2024/25 to a 1.9 million ton surplus in 2025/26, with prices stabilizing around $15-$15.5 cents per pound [6][120] - The soybean meal market appears oversupplied, with prices expected to average $280 per ton in 2026, down from current forward prices of $331 per ton [6][120] - The biofuel industry is anticipated to compete intensely for soybean oil, potentially diverting it from food use, which could lead to higher prices [114][119][120] Conclusion - The agricultural sector is facing a complex interplay of supply, demand, and geopolitical factors that will shape market dynamics in 2026. The bullish outlook for soybean oil contrasts with bearish trends in wheat and soymeal, while corn prices remain contingent on export performance and weather conditions.

Summary of J.P. Morgan 2026/27 Agri Markets Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the agricultural commodities market, highlighting the expected volatility in 2026 as global agricultural availability continues to decline [1][9] - The document discusses the implications of U.S.-China trade relations on agricultural commodity prices and availability [4][9] Key Points and Arguments U.S.-China Trade Relations - Optimism is growing regarding a potential U.S.-China trade deal in 2026, with expectations for China to purchase 12 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans by the end of 2025 and at least 25 million tonnes in 2026, 2027, and 2028 [4][9] - The report expresses skepticism about the feasibility of significant U.S. agricultural exports to China in 2025/26 but anticipates improved commitments in 2026 [4][9] Price Movements and Forecasts - Price targets for CBOT grain and oilseeds have been revised upward following the suspension of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products by China [4][9] - The average price forecast for ICE 11 Sugar has decreased by 9% to 16.1 USc/lb, while the forecast for CBOT Soybeans has increased by 14% to approximately 1,083 USc/bu [41][43] Agricultural Availability and Stock Projections - Despite a narrative shift towards perceived abundance in agricultural commodities, the report indicates that global agricultural availability is declining, with stocks-to-use ratios projected to remain near multi-year lows in 2026/27 and 2027/28 [6][23] - The report highlights that low producer margins and adverse weather conditions could exacerbate supply-side disruptions, leading to increased price volatility [4][24] Weather and Climate Risks - The La Niña pattern is expected to influence agricultural weather conditions, with potential impacts on soybean and product production in regions like Argentina and Brazil [15][24] - The report notes that while weather risks have been benign in 2025, any adverse conditions could significantly affect production [15][24] Demand Dynamics - The report anticipates an uptick in agricultural commodity demand through 2025/26, driven by a more stable supply chain and trade environment [33][34] - A notable decline in population growth rates, particularly in China and middle-income economies, is expected to weigh on food demand growth [35][36] Market Sentiment and Volatility - Implied volatility in agricultural markets has increased, suggesting a potential rise in risk appetite among investors [12][14] - The report indicates that a sustained improvement in U.S.-China relations could lead to increased investor interest and volatility in agricultural markets [14][24] Other Important Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of producer margins and favorable growing conditions in altering the supply-side outlook for agricultural commodities [24][33] - The document also discusses the impact of high input costs, particularly for diesel, on agricultural production and competitiveness [24][41] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and forecasts from the J.P. Morgan 2026/27 Agri Markets Outlook, providing a comprehensive overview of the agricultural commodities landscape and the factors influencing it.

Report Title - The report is titled "Oil Weekly Report 20251121: The Resonance of Malaysian Palm Oil High-Frequency Data and US Biodiesel Pressures the Oil Futures Market" [1][2] Investment Rating - The document does not mention the investment rating of the industry. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: The downside space is limited, with support at the [8300] price level. The contract is p2601. In the medium term, the pattern is slightly bullish. Although the domestic inventory has reached a moderately high level in history, and the near - month purchases have recovered, the consumption remains weak, and the supply - demand is relatively loose. In the long - term, the tight supply pattern in Southeast Asia continues, and biodiesel policies support the price center [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The downside space is limited, with support at the [9400] price level. The contract is Ol601. Globally, the 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to recover, which may suppress the price center. Domestically, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, and the expected tightening of supply in the far - month has been alleviated. In the long - term, the increased import capital cost due to the margin on Canadian rapeseed still provides support [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: The downside space is limited, with support at the [7700] price level. The contract is y2601. Abroad, the supply pressure of US soybeans is emerging during the harvest season, but the reduction in planting area and the increase in consumption due to biodiesel policies lead to a tightening supply. Domestically, the near - term supply of soybeans and soybean oil is loose, and the far - month supply is expected to ease. It mainly follows other oils in a bullish oscillation [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Southeast Asian Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: This week, BMD crude palm oil first rose and then fell, with a slight downward shift in the center of gravity. The market was first boosted by the US reaffirming the 2026 RVO target but then weakened due to high - frequency data showing an increase in Malaysian production and a significant decline in exports in November [13][14]. - **Supply and Demand Data** - **Malaysia**: In October, the production was 2.0439 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 11.02% and a year - on - year increase of 13.72%), consumption was 282,400 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 15.41% and a year - on - year increase of 10%), exports were 1.0929 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 18.58% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%), and the end - of - month inventory was 1.4645 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 4.11% and a year - on - year increase of 3.07%). From November 1 - 20, the export volume decreased, and the production increased [16]. - **Indonesia**: As of August, the inventory remained at a low level in history. In August, the production was 5.64 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.66%), exports were 3.47 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1.98% and a year - on - year increase of 5.56%), and the end - of - month inventory was 2.54 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1.17% and a year - on - year increase of 3.67%). The reference price of crude palm oil in November was raised [34]. - **Indian Market**: After the festival, India's purchases slowed down, but due to rigid demand, the imports are expected to remain at a relatively high level year - on - year. Currently, India's oil and palm oil inventories have returned to a moderately low level in history [37][52]. 2. US Soybeans and Soybean Oil - **Market Performance**: This week, CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell, with the center of gravity remaining basically unchanged. CBOT soybean oil first rose and then fell, with a slight weekly increase [50][51]. - **Supply and Demand Factors** - **Harvest Progress**: As of November 17, the soybean harvest progress was 95%, compared with 98% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 96% [53]. - **Biodiesel Policy**: The US biodiesel policy is unclear. There are considerations to postpone the reduction of incentives for imported biodiesel, which may affect the demand for US soybean oil [53]. - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2021/2022 to 2025/2026, the global soybean production shows certain fluctuations, and the consumption and inventory also change accordingly. For example, in 2025/2026, the global production is expected to be 421.748 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.26% [56]. 3. South American Soybeans and Soybean Oil - **Planting Progress** - **Brazil**: As of November 15, the 2025/26 soybean planting progress was 69%, higher than that of the previous week but lower than the same period last year. The production is expected to continue to increase [78]. - **Argentina**: As of November 12, the soybean planting progress was 12.9%, lower than the same period last year [72]. - **Weather Outlook**: In Brazil, the soybean - producing areas have good weather for sowing, but there may be a risk of deterioration in December. In Argentina, the soybean - producing areas may gradually enter a dry weather pattern [73][78]. 4. Global Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - **Production Forecast**: In the 2025/26 year, the USDA expects a restorative increase in production. Canada, the EU, and Australia are all expected to increase production. For example, Canada's rapeseed production is estimated to be 20.03 million tons [110]. - **Policy Impact**: China has imposed a 75.8% margin on imported rapeseed from Canada. Although there are signs of relaxation in Sino - Canadian relations, there has been no substantial progress, which provides support for rapeseed oil prices [111]. - **Global Rapeseed Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2021/2022 to 2025/2026, the global rapeseed production, consumption, and inventory change. In 2025/2026, the global production is expected to be 92.273 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7.30% [115]. 5. Domestic Oil Supply and Demand - **Market Performance**: This week, the domestic three major oil indexes were mainly weak. Palm oil has a pattern of weak current situation but strong future expectations. Soybean oil's far - month supply tightening expectation has improved, and rapeseed oil is supported by the lack of substantial progress in Sino - Canadian trade [129]. - **Pressing and Production**: In the 46th week (November 8 - 14), the soybean - pressing soybean oil production was 304,700 tons, and the expected production in the 47th week is 446,300 tons. The rapeseed - pressing volume of coastal oil mills is 0 tons, and the palm oil trading volume has increased [132][133]. - **Import and Inventory**: As of November 14, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.223 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.83% and a year - on - year increase of 11.31%. Among them, soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventories decreased slightly, while palm oil inventory increased significantly [158][159]. - **Cost - Profit**: The import costs and import profits of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil show certain fluctuations [148][152][153]. - **Basis and Spread**: The domestic soybean oil spot basis is generally weak, the palm oil basis is basically flat, and the rapeseed oil basis has a small decline. There are also corresponding changes in the spreads between different contracts and different varieties [189][237][244][245].

Summary of Agricultural Commodities Fundamentals Update Industry Overview - The report focuses on the agricultural commodities sector, highlighting the expected volatility in 2026 as global agricultural availability continues to decline from already low levels established in 2025/26 [7][10][14]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Global Agricultural Availability**: - Global agricultural commodity availability is projected to decline further, indicating a tightening supply situation [8][10]. - Stocks-to-use (STU) ratios for major commodities such as soybeans, wheat, sugar, and palm oil are expected to decrease year-over-year (YOY) for the next two seasons [7][10]. 2. **Stocks-to-Use Ratios**: - The world STU ratios are near multi-year lows for 2026E/27E and 2027E/28E, with a decline from suppressed levels in 2025E/26E [7][10]. - Specific STU ratios for various commodities are projected as follows: - Soybeans: 19.4% in 2026/27 - Wheat: 29% in 2026/27 - Sugar: 14.7% in 2026/27 - Palm Oil: 17.5% in 2026/27 [8]. 3. **Inventory Projections**: - Global ending stocks projections through 2026/27 show significant inventory draws across the complex, with palm oil and corn experiencing the largest declines of -7.6% and -6.4% respectively [10][11]. - Adjustments in inventory projections indicate a marginal increase across most markets for 2025/26, except for cotton which saw a decline of 1.4% [12]. 4. **Market Dynamics**: - The report indicates that the agricultural commodities market is facing complex dynamics with varying trends across different commodities, necessitating close monitoring of supply and demand factors [10][14]. 5. **Regional Analysis**: - The report includes detailed balances for wheat production in key regions such as the US, Black Sea, Russia, and Ukraine, highlighting the production, consumption, and export dynamics [19][21][23][25]. Additional Important Content - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying factors affecting agricultural commodity prices, including weather conditions, geopolitical events, and changes in consumer demand [10][14]. - It also notes that the USDA data is incomplete due to a government shutdown, which may affect the accuracy of the projections [9][14][19][23]. This comprehensive overview provides insights into the agricultural commodities sector, highlighting the expected challenges and opportunities in the coming years.

Company Performance - OneConstruction Group Limited (NASDAQ:ONEG) experienced a stock price decline of 57.16%, dropping to $4.39 from a year-high of $13.5, with a revenue decrease of 16.2% to $53.2 million from $63.5 million [2][8] - Nuvve Holding Corp. (NASDAQ:NVVE) saw a 43.46% drop in stock price to $0.26, prompting the company to initiate a strategic financing initiative to strengthen its equity position [3][8] - TSS, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSSI) faced a 43.08% decline in stock price to $8.68, despite enhancing its AI and high-performance computing strategy by appointing a new board member with extensive experience [4][8] - Republic Power Group Limited (NASDAQ:RPGL) witnessed a 42.96% decline in stock price to $0.84, raising investor concerns about its market position, although it successfully closed an initial public offering of 2,120,000 Class A ordinary shares at $4.00 each [5][8] - Davis Commodities Limited (NASDAQ:DTCK) saw its stock price fall by 41.59% to $0.64, reflecting market reactions to global trade dynamics, while exploring a new vertical in the specialty food ingredients market projected to reach approximately $97.3 billion by 2025 [6][8] Market Sentiment - The significant price movements of these companies underscore the volatility and risks inherent in the stock market, influenced by company-specific developments, sectoral trends, and broader economic factors [7]

Group 1: Corn Market - December corn (ZCZ25) opened lower but found new buying interest, reaching a high of $4.36, close to the previous high of $4.37 from October 30 [1] - The contract gained 1.0 cent on March, 1.0 cent on May, and 0.25 cent on July, indicating strong support from funds and commercial buying activity [1] - The December 2026 contract remained unchanged at $4.70, marking its highest close since June 18 [1] Group 2: Metals Market - December gold (GCZ25) rose by $87 (2.1%), while December silver (SIZ25) increased by $2.63 (5.2%), indicating renewed buying interest from central banks amid political and economic uncertainty [2] - The market's backwardation in crude oil (CLZ25) weakened, with crude oil down $2.53 (4.2%) due to solid commercial selling [2] Group 3: Soybean Market - The soybean market initially declined but gained bullish momentum towards the close, influenced by spillover buying from corn [3] - January soybean (ZSF26) traded 113,000 contracts, lower than Tuesday's 123,300 contracts, with a reported open interest decrease of 3,100 contracts [3] - January finished 6.5 cents higher, with gains in March, May, and July contracts, suggesting commercial buying activity [3] Group 4: Wheat Market - All three wheat markets closed in the green, with December SRW (ZWZ25) unchanged but close to its session high on a trade volume of 86,000 contracts [4] - December HRW (KEZ25) gained 1.75 cents, while the new-crop July issue closed 3.0 cents higher, indicating potential commercial selling into the close [4] - SRW fundamentals remain bearish, but the market can still rally despite this outlook [4]

Core Insights - Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) has a market cap of $27 billion and operates in the procurement, transportation, storage, processing, and merchandising of agricultural commodities globally [1] Performance Overview - ADM stock has underperformed the broader market, with a year-to-date increase of 12.3% and a 52-week gain of 6.5%, compared to the S&P 500 Index's gains of 14.3% in 2025 and 13.4% over the past year [2] - The stock has outperformed the Vaneck Agribusiness ETF (MOO), which saw an 8.4% increase year-to-date and a 2.2% decline over the past 52 weeks [3] Q3 Financial Results - In Q3, ADM reported a 2.2% year-over-year increase in revenue to $20.4 billion, missing expectations by 1.4% [4] - Adjusted EPS decreased from $1.09 to $0.92 but exceeded consensus estimates by 3.4% [4] Guidance and Analyst Ratings - The company revised its full-year EPS guidance down from $4.00 to a range of $3.25 - $3.50 [5] - Analysts expect an adjusted EPS of $3.45 for fiscal 2025, reflecting a 27.2% year-over-year decline [6] - The consensus rating among 11 analysts is a "Hold," with one "Strong Buy," seven "Holds," two "Moderate Sells," and one "Strong Sell" [6] Recent Downgrade - On November 5, JP Morgan downgraded ADM from "Equal-Weight" to "Underweight" and lowered the price target from $61 to $59 [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The palm oil market lacks driving forces, and short - term support levels should be monitored. The soybean oil market is experiencing low - level fluctuations due to the adjustment of US soybeans [1]. - The Malaysian palm oil inventory in October reached a two - year high, with production hitting a seven - year high, and the growth rate of inventory exceeded export demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,616 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.55%, and (night session) was 8,654 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.44%. Trading volume was 556,601 lots, an increase of 92 lots, and open interest was 405,977 lots, an increase of 14,740 lots [1]. - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,108 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.02%, and (night session) was 8,116 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.10%. Trading volume was 282,360 lots, an increase of 21,372 lots, and open interest was 480,655 lots, a decrease of 2,668 lots [1]. - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,443 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.29%, and (night session) was 9,453 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.11%. Trading volume was 163,529 lots, a decrease of 176,426 lots, and open interest was 213,040 lots, a decrease of 85 lots [1]. - **Spot Data**: - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): Spot price was 8,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [1]. - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price was 8,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [1]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price was 9,870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis Data**: - Palm oil (Guangdong): Basis was - 46 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean oil (Guangdong): Basis was 412 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Basis was 427 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: - Rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread was 827 yuan/ton, compared to 806 yuan/ton two trading days ago [1]. - Soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread was - 508 yuan/ton, compared to - 554 yuan/ton two trading days ago [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil inventory in October was expected to soar 3.5% to 2.44 million tons, the highest since October 2023. The estimated production of crude palm oil in October was 1.94 million tons, a 5.6% increase from the previous month, reaching the highest level for that month since October 2018. Exports in October were expected to increase 3.8% to 1.48 million tons, the second consecutive monthly increase and the highest in nearly a year [2][4]. - **US Soybeans**: StoneX lowered its estimate of the US 2025 soybean yield per acre from 53.9 bushels on October 1st to 53.6 bushels, and expected the 2025 US soybean production to be 4.303 billion bushels, lower than the previous forecast of 4.326 billion bushels. S&P Global Commodity Insights predicted the 2025 US soybean average yield per acre to be 53.0 bushels, consistent with the October forecast, and the production estimate was 4.260 billion bushels, previously 4.261 billion bushels [4]. - **Brazilian Crops**: StoneX's estimates of the Brazilian 2025/26 soybean and summer corn harvests remained largely unchanged. The November estimate of the 2025/26 soybean crop was 0.1% higher than the October estimate, expected to reach 178.9 million tons, mainly due to an increase in the estimated planting area in Goiás state. Irregular rainfall caused delayed sowing in several areas, and some plots needed replanting. Long - term forecasts indicated favorable weather for the harvest [5]. - **Regional Data**: In Mato Grosso state, the soybean crushing profit from October 27th - 31st was 502.44 reais/ton, up from 467.42 reais/ton the previous week. In Paraná state, the 2025/26 soybean planting area had reached 79% of the expected area, an 8 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, with 93% of the evaluated areas in good growth condition [5]. - **EU Imports**: As of November 2nd, the EU's 2025/26 palm oil imports were 960,000 tons, compared to 1.19 million tons last year; soybean imports were 3.81 million tons, compared to 4.59 million tons last year; soybean meal imports were 6.11 million tons, compared to 6.24 million tons last year; and rapeseed imports were 1.26 million tons, compared to 2.19 million tons last year [6]. - **Kazakhstan Exports**: In September 2025, Kazakhstan's feed meal exports reached a record high of 305,000 tons, 2.5 times that of the same period last year and 14.5 times that of September 2023 [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of palm oil was 0, and that of soybean oil was also 0, indicating a neutral outlook for both [7].

Group 1 - Smithfield Foods is rated with a buy rating, indicating a positive outlook for the company's profitability in the coming years [1] - The company is focused on increasing its revenues, although specific targets or strategies are not detailed in the provided text [1] Group 2 - Daniel Mellado, an economist with a Master's Degree in Statistics, has experience in analyzing agricultural commodities and managing trading and data analysis teams [1] - Mellado's expertise includes developing strategies for algorithmic trading and analyzing financial statements, regulations, and macroeconomic variables to generate investment recommendations [1]

Company Overview - Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (NYSE: ADM) is involved in the production of oilseeds, corn, wheat, cocoa, and other agricultural commodities [1] - ADM is one of the four major companies dominating the global grain market, alongside Cargill, Louis Dreyfus, and Bunge [1] Investment Analysis Approach - The company specializes in analyzing US bonds and commodities, with a focus on medium to long-term investment horizons while also considering short-term price movements [1] - The typical research process includes identifying undervalued or overvalued assets, reviewing fundamentals, and assessing technical and economic signals if the fundamentals yield meaningful results [1] - The analysis is primarily value-driven and contrarian, focusing on mispriced assets [1]