新华财经北京1月27日电债市周二（1月27日）延续盘整，期现券尤其是超长端品种午后稍走弱，中短端 品种基本持稳，国债期货多数收平，银行间现券收益率上行0.5-1BP；公开市场单日净投放780亿元，资 金利率有所回落，月末流动性基本无虞。 机构认为，本周地方债发行偏多，叠加月末之际，流动性波动或对现券构成扰动。当前市场真正博弈焦 点在供需面，而年初以来供需错位是收益率下行修复的主要推动力。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘多数持平，30年期主力合约跌0.33%报112.09，10年期主力合约收平报108.185，5年期主 力合约收平报105.84，2年期主力合约收平报102.386。 欧元区市场方面，当地时间1月26日，10年期法债收益率跌5.8BPs报3.434%，10年期德债收益率跌 3.9BPs报2.865%，10年期意债收益率跌4.7BPs报3.464%，10年期西债收益率跌4.2BPs报3.227%。其他市 场方面，10年期英债收益率跌1.5BP报4.496%。 【一级市场】 农发行91天、5年期金融债中标收益率分别为1.4896%、1.7023%，全场倍数分别为3.56、3.08，边际倍 数分别为7.5、 ...

【1月26日香港特区政府行政长官称人民币债券市场规模2024年破万亿】1月26日，香港特区政府行政长 官李家超在亚洲金融论坛透露，香港人民币债券市场持续活跃。2024年，该市场规模突破1万亿元人民 币，2025年预计维持这一水平。 李家超强调，香港作为连接世界与内地繁荣发展的门户，将继续探索 深化内地与香港金融市场互联互通举措。包括在港推出离岸国债期货、拓展"沪深港通"下的利率衍生品 业务。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

1月26日，香港特区政府行政长官李家超在亚洲金融论坛上表示，香港人民币债券市场持续活跃，2024 年市场规模突破1万亿元人民币，2025年预计维持这一水平。香港是连接世界与内地繁荣发展的门户， 李家超强调，香港将继续探索深化内地与香港金融市场互联互通的举措，在港推出离岸国债 期货、拓 展"沪深港通"下的利率衍生品业务。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japanese government bond yields and stocks experienced a decline as U.S. and Japanese authorities indicated readiness to intervene in the currency market to support the yen, leading to a rebound in the Japanese currency [1] Group 1 - Japanese government bond yields fell on Monday, reflecting market reactions to potential government intervention [1] - Stock prices in Japan also dropped, indicating a broader market response to currency stabilization efforts [1] - The yen showed signs of recovery following the announcements from U.S. and Japanese authorities, suggesting a direct impact on currency valuation [1]

Investment Opportunities - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts often signal a turning point for investors, making borrowing cheaper and prompting a shift towards higher return assets [1] - Rate cuts create distinct winners and losers across various asset classes, influencing investment strategies [1] Bonds and Bond Funds - The bond market is a primary beneficiary of falling interest rates, as existing bonds with higher interest rates become more valuable, leading to price increases [2] - Diversified bond funds allow investors to lock in current yields while providing potential upside if rates continue to decline, serving as a stabilizer in portfolios [3] - Long-duration bonds may offer the most benefit from rate drops but also carry higher risks if inflation rises [3] Growth Stocks and Technology Companies - Lower interest rates tend to support growth stocks, particularly in technology, as reduced borrowing costs enable cheaper investments in expansion and lower discount rates on future earnings [4] - Historically, growth stocks perform well during early phases of rate-cutting cycles, but performance is contingent on the economic context of the rate cuts [5] - Selective exposure to growth stocks is advised rather than blanket optimism due to potential uneven gains following economic slowdowns [5] Housing and Homebuilder-Related Investments - The housing market is highly sensitive to interest rates; falling rates typically lead to lower mortgage rates, enhancing affordability and stimulating market activity [6] - Homebuilders and companies related to building materials may benefit from increased demand and reduced financing costs, although rate cuts alone won't resolve all housing market challenges [7] Dividend-Paying and Income-Focused Stocks - With declining interest rates, income investors face lower yields from cash and bonds, making dividend-paying stocks more appealing as an alternative [8]

Barclays Research Some of the best performing US debt in the first weeks of this year is the lowest rated, implying that corporate defaults are low on the list of investor fears now. Debt rated in the CCC tier, the lowest ratings that commonly trade in the US, gained 1.15% this year through Thursday’s close on a total return basis. That’s better than just about every other kind of US debt, including other types of junk bonds. Treasuries are down about 0.2%, according to Bloomberg index data. Most Read ...

Core Insights - Investors are currently experiencing significant volatility in Japan's bond market, indicating potential shifts in interest rates and investor sentiment [1] - There is a notable rally in small-cap stocks, suggesting a growing confidence in smaller companies and potential opportunities for higher returns [1] - Prices for natural gas, gold, and silver are surging, reflecting increased demand and possibly inflationary pressures in the market [1]

Core Insights - The central bank's policy operations may lead to an increase in expectations for loose monetary policy, with the recent weak performance of long-term government bonds providing more room for subsequent rebounds as the 10-year government bond yield approaches the lower limit of 1.80% [1] Group 1: Central Bank Policy and Bond Market Trends - The bond market's performance is significantly influenced by monetary policy, with the market's trajectory divided into three phases since 2024, reflecting the central bank's verbal and operational guidance [2][15] - In the first phase, the bond market experienced a bull run, with the central bank emphasizing the need to align long-term bond yields with growth expectations, leading to a market adjustment [2][17] - The second phase saw a stronger policy intervention from the central bank, which effectively cooled the previously enthusiastic bullish sentiment in the bond market [3][18] - The third phase indicated a self-adjustment in the bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield stabilizing within a narrow range of 1.80% to 1.90%, suggesting that the current yield levels may be acceptable to the central bank [4][19] Group 2: Expectations for Loose Monetary Policy - Signals of monetary policy easing have gradually emerged, with the central bank indicating that there is still room for rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [5][20] - The government has accelerated the issuance of bonds, with cumulative issuance of 12,170 billion for 2026, the highest since 2021, indicating a proactive fiscal policy approach [5][24] - The liquidity needs of financial institutions are expected to rise, potentially leading to increased liquidity pressure on banks as government bond issuance continues at a rapid pace [5][24] Group 3: Long-term Yield Spread and Investment Opportunities - The performance of long-term government bonds has been significantly weaker than that of short-term bonds, creating a favorable environment for potential rebounds in long-term yields [8][26] - The spread between 30-year and 10-year government bonds reached approximately 50 basis points, the widest since 2023, suggesting that there may be opportunities for investors to capitalize on this spread as expectations for loose monetary policy grow [8][26]

Group 1: Treasury Yields and Economic Indicators - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.24% as of January 23, 2026, while the 2-year note was at 3.60% and the 30-year note at 4.82% [1] - An inverted yield curve occurs when longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, which is often a precursor to recessions, with the 10-2 spread being a reliable leading indicator [2] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Group 2: Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs for banks, which typically affects mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed's rate cuts starting in September 2024 [7] - The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.09%, marking one of the lowest levels since October 2024 [7] Group 3: Treasury ETFs - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]

Key Points Foreign governments may not want to hold as many U.S. Treasury bonds from here on out. If they start to dump those Treasuries, it'll send the market into turmoil. Bitcoin will be dragged along for the ride, for better or for worse. 10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin › When the biggest and "safest" investments in the world start to get questioned, it's necessary to take a hard look at what the idea of "safety" actually means. On that note, if major foreign holders in the European U ...