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Bianco: Brace for Long-Term Tariff Volatility, Barbell Investment Strategies
Youtube· 2025-10-13 19:30
Market Reactions - The recent market fluctuations are largely reactions to tariff news, particularly the 100% tariff on China and subsequent reassurances from Trump that the situation will resolve itself [1][2] - The market rebound only recovered about half of the losses experienced on the previous Friday, indicating lingering skepticism among investors [2] Bond Market Insights - The bond market is currently seen as an alternative to the stock market, providing lower risk with returns of about 5-6% annually, compared to stock market returns of 10-15% [4][5] - Rising bond yields, particularly approaching 5%, can negatively impact the stock market as investors may prefer the safety of bonds over stocks [5][6] Bianco Research Index - The Bianco Research Total Return Index is designed as an actively managed fixed income fund, aiming to outperform traditional indices [7][11] - The index is currently underweight in corporate bonds due to high stock market valuations and tight corporate spreads, while being overweight in mortgages [9][10] Emerging Market Debt - Emerging market local currency debt is yielding approximately 6.8%, benefiting from a weakening dollar, making it an attractive alternative to stocks [12][13] - The strategy includes being underweight in China and other tariff-affected regions to mitigate risks associated with potential trade issues [13][14] Inflation Concerns - There are ongoing concerns about inflation, with expectations for the upcoming CPI report to show core inflation at 3.1%, which remains problematic despite being lower than previous highs [15][16] - The company maintains a long position in short-term TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) due to the belief that inflation will continue to be an issue [15][16]
11 Investment Must Reads for This Week (Oct. 14, 2025)
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-13 18:55
Group 1: ETF Market - ETFs are approaching $1 trillion in net inflows for 2025, with $997 billion recorded as of October 9, marking a significant achievement as this milestone was first reached only last December [1] - The demand for alternative investments such as cryptocurrency and gold is increasing alongside the popularity of ETFs [1] Group 2: Private Credit - Aksia's research indicates that private credit may be experiencing a capital glut, with significant cash inflows potentially driving equity valuations higher and increasing systemic risk [2] - The analysis covered over 630 private credit managers and more than 40,000 private credit loans [2] Group 3: Nontraded REITs - The backlog of redemptions in nontraded REITs has been largely resolved, with only one fund still experiencing significant redemption requests [3] Group 4: Private Equity and Liquidity - Private equity firms are innovating to enhance liquidity, with notable transactions such as PAI Partners' $4.2 billion recap of Froneri, which includes a new continuation vehicle [4] - HarbourVest is targeting $20 billion in its latest megafund initiative [4] Group 5: Private Markets Valuation - A surge in retail investment into private markets is expected to lead to more frequent portfolio valuations by money managers, as scrutiny over private market valuations has increased [5] Group 6: Public/Private Investing - Morningstar emphasizes that semiliquid offerings may not suit every investor, highlighting the importance of understanding underlying holdings, leverage, fees, and redemption limits before investing [6] Group 7: Hedge Funds - Hedge funds have seen a resurgence with $37.3 billion in inflows amid market volatility, attracting institutional investors back to active management [9] Group 8: Emerging Markets - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for the MSCI EM index to 1,480 over the next 12 months, up from 1,373, with emerging market currencies expected to continue outperforming [10] Group 9: Bitcoin Financial Services - Unchained has launched a bitcoin wealth platform by merging its RIA affiliate into Gannett Trust Company, responding to the rising demand for financial structures that accommodate digital assets [11]
American Century's Greenblath Talks Corporate Bonds, Yields
Etftrends· 2025-10-13 15:34
Core Insights - Interest rates have decreased, leading to a changing fixed income landscape where investors are seeking higher yields [1] - Jason Greenblath from American Century Investments highlights the potential in corporate bonds and the advantages of an active fixed income strategy [2][4] Corporate Bond Opportunities - Greenblath emphasizes that despite tight spreads, there are still significant opportunities in the investment-grade universe, which consists of around 8,000 bonds from nearly 800 borrowers [2] - The focus is on short maturity, BB-rated high yield bonds, which can yield mid-single digits, often exceeding 6%, compared to the index yield of 4.75% [3] KORP ETF Strategy - The American Century Diversified Corporate Bond ETF (KORP) actively invests in corporate bonds, charging a fee of 29 basis points, aiming to provide both yield and income [4] - KORP seeks to capture income through newer vintage bonds with attractive coupons of 5% to 7%, which were not issued during the pandemic [4] Investment Approach - KORP's strategy involves a concentrated portfolio with 200 to 300 line items, allowing for deep scrutiny of potential investments, unlike the broader index [3][4] - The ETF can adapt to market conditions and capitalize on specific events related to top borrowers, such as AT&T and JP Morgan, when spreads are expected to tighten [5][6] Portfolio Role - KORP may serve as a core component in investor portfolios, providing corporate exposure while maintaining similar interest rate risk to the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index [7] - The active management of KORP allows it to capture themes that the index may overlook, making it an appealing option for those seeking additional yield [6][8]
债市日报:10月13日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-10-13 08:07
新华财经北京10月13日电(王菁)债市周一(10月13日)期现券表现有所分化,国债期货主力全线收 涨,银行间现券买盘却远不及周六调休日,收益率午后明显回升;公开市场单日净投放1378亿元,资金 面平稳偏宽局面不改,央行逆回购投放呵护下,短期流动性预期无忧。 机构认为,四季度债市或震荡修复,利差或逐步压降,加杠杆与哑铃策略依然占优。10月资产供给节奏 放缓,而资金持续宽松,同时叠加基本面数据逐步落地,预计债市将逐步进入修复阶段。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线上涨,30年期主力合约涨0.37%报114.440,10年期主力合约涨0.10%报108.065,5年 期主力合约涨0.03%报105.685,2年期主力合约涨0.02%报102.370。 【一级市场】 农发行182天、3年、5年期金融债中标收益率分别为1.6173%、1.7065%、1.7883%,全场倍数分别为 1.79、2.63、3.16,边际倍数分别为1.56、3.3、2.02。 【资金面】 公开市场方面,央行公告称,10月13日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1378亿元7天期逆回购操作, 操作利率1.40%,投标量1378亿元,中标量1378亿元 ...
大类资产早报-20251013
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 02:43
| 11 20 22 111 | | --- | | CAN CONTRACTOR COLLECTION COLLEGION | | and the first the first of the first of the first of the first of the first of the first of the first of the first of the first of the first of the first and | | | | 一周变化 | 1.49% | 2.22% | 1.63% | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一月变化 | 2.79% | 1.90% | 8.25% | | | | | 一年变化 | -2.94% | 9.47% | 17.39% | | | | | 信用债指数 | | | | | | | | | 美国投资级信 | 欧元区投资级 | 新兴经济体投 资级信用债指 | 美国高收益信 | 欧元区高收益 | 新兴经济体高 收益信用债指 | | | 用债指数 | 信用债指数 | | 用债指 ...
【债市观察】假期前后债市转暖 避险需求促利率下行
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-10-13 02:30
新华财经北京10月13日电(王柘)长假前后的六个工作日(2025年9月28日至9月30日、10月9日至10月11日),债市情绪回暖,收益率 连续多日下行,10年期国债收益率走低逾5BP。收益率主要跌幅出现在9月30日和10月11日,前者受到央行重启国债买卖传闻推动,后者 则因美再度威胁加征关税大幅提振市场避险情绪。 行情回顾 2025年10月11日,中债国债到期收益率1年期、2年期、3年期、5年期、7年期、10年期、30年期、50年期较2025年9月26日分别变 动-1.34BP、-3.03BP、-3.72BP、-4.4BP、-6.18BP、-5.62BP、1.58BP、-1.05BP。 | | | 中债国债收益率曲线(到期)$ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标准期限(年) | 9月26日 | 10月11日 | 变动BP | | 0 | 1.043 | 1.0982 | 5.52 | | 0.08 | 1. 3186 | 1.1685 | -15.01 | | 0. 17 | 1.3751 | 1.2915 | -8. 36 | | 0. 25 | 1.4 | 1. 2949 ...
Notice of additional Housing bond calls to be paid on 15 December 2025
Globenewswire· 2025-10-09 15:32
The IL Fund, pursuant to the Housing Act No. 44/1998, is authorised to make additional calls of Housing Bonds. This authorisation corresponds to the authorisation of real estate mortgagors to make additional payments on their morgages or to repay the debt in full prior to maturity. Provisions to this effect have existed in housing affairs legislation ever since the adoption of Act No. 75/1989, which established the Housing Bond system. By virtue of the above, the IL Fund has arranged for an additional draw ...
债市日报:10月9日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 08:53
新华财经北京10月9日电(王菁)国庆长假过后首个交易日(10月9日),债市期现券同步回暖,午后长 端品种表现更趋强势,国债期货主力全线收涨、银行间现券收益率下行1-2BPs;公开市场单日净回笼 14513亿元,月初资金利率普遍显著回落。 机构认为,10月流动性缺口可能季节性走阔,央行节前公告买断式逆回购释放了一定宽松信号,当前收 益率曲线较为平坦,后续或"先牛陡后牛平"的概率更大。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线上涨,30年期主力合约涨0.46%报114.530,10年期主力合约涨0.15%报108.045,5年 期主力合约涨0.07%报105.730,2年期主力合约涨0.02%报102.394。 银行间主要利率债收益率普遍下行,30年期国债"25超长特别国债02"收益率下行1.25BP报2.117%,10年 期国开债"25国开15"收益率下行0.65BP报1.956%,10年期国债"25附息国债11"收益率下行1BP报 1.773%。 中证转债指数午盘上涨0.65%,报488.64点。万得可转债等权指数上涨0.70%,报238.03点。豪美转债、 微导转债、精达转债、雪榕转债、科达转债涨幅居前,分别涨13. ...
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-10-06 22:10
Traders are bracing for an auction of 30-year government bonds in Japan after pro-stimulus conservative Sanae Takaichi’s surprise victory in the ruling party leadership race sent shock waves through the nation’s debt markets https://t.co/fHi6sOv3WR ...
Treasury market swept up in global jitters tied to resignation of French prime minister after less than a month
MarketWatch· 2025-10-06 15:39
U.S. government bond yields followed their counterparts in Europe higher on Monday in reaction to the shocking resignation of French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, who held the job for less than a month. ...