维持"买入"评级，维持目标价14 港币 根据公司披露，受混合式AI 推动，PC 营收+18%yoy，其中AI PC 渗透率超过30%且持续提升；Moto 品 牌智能手机销量和激活量双双创历史新高。 展望4Q 及FY27，我们预计联想能够发挥其规模和供应链优势，部分吸收存储涨价影响，AI 有望驱动 IDG 业务收入稳定增长。 ISG：Neptune 液冷营收同比大增300%，4Q 有望扭亏为盈ISG 3QFY26 收入+31% yoy 至51.8 亿美元， 主要受益于云基础设施和ToB的企业基础设施业务需求的双重驱动。3QFY26，公司AI 服务器业务营收 实现高双位数同比增长，项目储备高达155 亿美元，部署首个联想NVIDIAGB300 NVL72 机架级解决方 案，订单储备强劲。行业领先的Neptune 液冷技术营收3Q同比大增300%，继续巩固公司在节能AI 基础 设施的领导地位。 利润方面，受一次性重组费用2.85 亿美元影响，ISG 录得1,100 万美元经营亏损（环比收窄66%），营 业利润率环比改善0.6pct 至-0.2%，显示企稳回升。展望未来，ISG 业务或受益于：1）AI 进入推理兑现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve stable growth driven by the increasing penetration of AI PCs, strong orders for AI servers, and resilient supply chain management, leading to an upward revision of FY2026 earnings forecasts while maintaining projections for FY2027-2028 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For FY2026Q3, the company reported revenue of $22.204 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates of $20.76 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 18.1% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit for FY2026Q3 was $589 million, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates of $463 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.5% [1] - The company has revised its FY2026-2028 non-GAAP net profit estimates to $1.81 billion, $2.07 billion, and $2.36 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.5%, 14.5%, and 13.9% [1] Group 2: Business Segments - In the IDG segment, revenue reached $15.755 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, with Lenovo's PC shipments growing 14.4% compared to the industry average of 9.6% [1] - The AI devices within the IDG segment saw a significant year-on-year growth of 71%, accounting for 40% of the segment's revenue [1] - The ISG segment generated revenue of $5.176 billion, up 31.4% year-on-year, driven by the deployment of GB300 NVL72 and a 59% increase in AI infrastructure revenue [1] Group 3: Operational Metrics - The operating profit margin (OPM) for the IDG segment was 7.32%, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.07 percentage points, demonstrating the company's supply chain resilience amid rising component costs [1] - The SSG segment achieved revenue of $2.652 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.5%, with deferred revenue increasing by 20% to $3.78 billion, enhancing business predictability [2] - The OPM for the SSG segment was 22.48%, up 2.12 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong operational resilience [2]

机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：黄忠煌/王开元 ISG 基础设施解决方案：AI 服务器双位数高增，首次披露在手订单155 亿美元。FY25/26Q3ISG 板块实 现营业收入51.76 亿美元，同比+31.42%。拆分来看，AI 服务器高两位数增长，且公司首次披露订单储 备金额155 亿美元，后续增长动能强劲。FY25/26Q3 ISG 板块的经营利润为-1085 万美元，较上一财季 继续缩亏，公司AI 服务器业务转型持续推进。预计在规模效应+全球供应链体系的加持下，ISG 板块有 望在下一财季实现扭亏。 市场逐步消化存储冲击预期，同时，预计公司后续将有效应对存储涨价带来的影响。公司供应链体系完 善，且为业内较大的采购商，在过去多轮部件涨价周期中积累了丰富且完备的应对方案。一方面，公司 对B 端客户具备一定的成本传导能力；另一方面，若涨价带来C 端需求的下滑，实际是利润的递延。市 场正在逐步消化存储涨价对公司带来的冲击。预计公司后续将有效应对存储涨价带来的影响。 维持"买入"评级。我们维持此前盈利预测，预计公司FY25/26-FY27/28 财年实现收入794.9、915.5、 1052.4 亿美元，实现归母净利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global technology industry is undergoing a significant restructuring, characterized by soaring prices in core components like memory chips and aggressive investments in AI by tech giants. Lenovo Group has found a path to evolve amidst these changes, demonstrating strong financial performance and growth potential in the AI ecosystem [2]. Financial Performance - Lenovo Group reported a revenue of 157.5 billion RMB for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2025/26, representing an over 18% year-on-year growth. Adjusted net profit increased by 36%, with profit growth outpacing revenue growth [2]. - The company’s PC shipments grew by 15% year-on-year, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of outperforming the market, and its global PC market share rose to 25.3%, leading the second-place competitor by 5.2 percentage points [5]. Market Dynamics - The memory chip price surge is creating a "Matthew Effect," where leading brands like Lenovo are expected to gain market share while smaller brands struggle due to weaker bargaining power [4]. - Lenovo's strategy during the memory supply crisis involves securing inventory through long-term procurement contracts, which enhances the value of its stock during price surges [5][6]. ISG Business Growth - Lenovo's Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) achieved a revenue of 36.7 billion RMB, growing over 30% year-on-year, driven by strong demand in the server market [8]. - The ISG segment is expected to turn profitable in the upcoming quarter, with a focus on aligning product lines with future trends and capitalizing on AI infrastructure demand [9]. AI Strategy and Market Position - Lenovo's AI server revenue grew by 59% year-on-year, indicating a robust demand for AI-related infrastructure as tech giants continue to invest heavily in AI capabilities [11]. - The company aims to enhance user engagement with AI on devices, targeting an increase in daily active users from 40%-50% to 70%-80% [12]. Long-term Growth Potential - Lenovo's mixed AI strategy, combining personal and enterprise intelligence, is expected to drive sustainable growth and profitability, with AI-related revenue accounting for 32% of total revenue, reflecting a 72% year-on-year increase [13]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the evolving landscape of AI and smart agents, with a focus on maintaining a competitive edge through vertical integration and proprietary technology [9][12].

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo Group reported a record revenue of $22.2 billion for Q3 of the fiscal year 2025/2026, with a year-on-year growth of over 18% and a net profit increase of 36%, indicating strong operational performance across all business segments [2][6]. Business Performance Summary - All business segments of Lenovo achieved double-digit revenue growth in Q3, with personal computer sales continuing to outperform the market for ten consecutive quarters, leading to a historic market share high for the fiscal year 2025 [2]. - The ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) segment generated $5.2 billion in revenue, marking a year-on-year growth of over 31%, and is approaching profitability [5]. - The SSG (Solutions and Services Group) reported an 18% year-on-year revenue increase, achieving a 22.5% operating profit margin [2]. AI Revenue Growth - AI-related revenue for Lenovo grew by 72% year-on-year, now accounting for 32% of total revenue, highlighting the increasing importance of AI in the company's business model [3][4]. ISG Segment Insights - The ISG segment's revenue growth is attributed to structural optimization in enterprise servers, data centers, and industry solutions, with a focus on a dual-track strategy of cloud and enterprise infrastructure [7]. - The CSP (Cloud Service Provider) business saw a 37.1% revenue increase, while the E/SMB (Enterprise/Small and Medium Business) segment also achieved double-digit growth [7]. - Lenovo's strategic restructuring in the ISG segment aims to enhance productivity and competitiveness, with an expected annual net cost saving of approximately $200 million over the next three years [5][17]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The market for AI computing is rapidly evolving, with a predicted shift from training to local data center and edge inference, presenting significant opportunities for Lenovo [10][20]. - The global AI infrastructure market is expected to triple by 2028, driven by the increasing demand for AI-ready infrastructure [10]. - Lenovo's focus on local inference capabilities aligns with the anticipated growth in AI applications, emphasizing the importance of edge computing for businesses [19][20]. Operational Efficiency and Supply Chain Management - Lenovo's global and localized supply chain management has provided resilience and efficiency, allowing for cost control and improved delivery times [15][16]. - The company has strategically stockpiled storage chips to ensure production continuity through 2026, mitigating potential supply chain disruptions [17]. Long-term Strategic Vision - Lenovo's commitment to innovation and operational excellence is reflected in its ability to transition ISG from a loss-making phase to a path of profitability, with expectations of breakeven by the end of the fiscal year 2025/2026 [6][23]. - The company's long-term strategy emphasizes the importance of AI as a fundamental direction rather than a bubble, focusing on practical applications and infrastructure development [18][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its performance and market position [8]. Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected earnings, with a significant order backlog of $15.5 billion for AI servers, showcasing strong growth potential in this segment [2][8]. - The company’s revenue for FY25/26Q3 reached $22.204 billion, reflecting an 18.13% year-over-year increase, while adjusted net profit rose by 35.54% [8]. - The PC segment continues to lead the industry, with revenue of $15.755 billion in FY25/26Q3, a 14.30% increase year-over-year, outperforming global PC shipment growth [8]. - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) reported revenue of $5.176 billion, a 31.42% increase, with AI servers showing double-digit growth [8]. - The company is expected to effectively manage the impact of rising storage costs due to its robust supply chain and procurement capabilities [8]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for FY25/26, FY26/27, and FY27/28 are $79.485 billion, $91.551 billion, and $105.244 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of $1.672 billion, $2.029 billion, and $2.433 billion [7][9]. - The company’s net profit margin is expected to improve, with a projected PE ratio of 8.5x for FY25/26, decreasing to 5.9x by FY27/28 [8].

Core Viewpoint - JLT Mobile Computers reported a year of growth in order intake and sales despite challenges in the warehousing and logistics market, with a focus on cost reduction and diversification into other segments to improve performance [2][3][12]. Financial Performance - Order intake for the full year 2025 reached SEK 141.6 million, a 37% increase from SEK 103.0 million in 2024, while net sales grew to SEK 131.5 million, an 11% increase from SEK 118.4 million [1]. - Operating profit improved to SEK -1.9 million from -9.7 million the previous year, and profit after taxes was -2.5 million compared to -7.7 million in 2024 [1][5]. - Cash flow for the year was SEK 3.7 million, down from SEK 6.8 million in 2024 [1]. Market Dynamics - Demand in the warehousing and logistics segment remained low due to geopolitical uncertainties, prompting the company to explore opportunities in ports and construction machinery [3][12]. - The US dollar's depreciation against the Swedish krona negatively impacted earnings, leading to a gross margin decline of 8 percentage points to 38% [5]. Cost Management - The company implemented cost reduction measures, consolidating software development and discontinuing operations of JLT Software Solutions AB, resulting in a decrease in operating expenses to SEK 52 million [4]. - Inventory levels decreased to SEK 25.5 million, down SEK 13 million from the previous year, as the company focused on reducing excess stock [7]. Strategic Developments - Key events included a record-high order intake in the first quarter, the introduction of a new fixed-mount computer in the second quarter, and the launch of an AI-based safety solution in the third quarter [8][9][10]. - The company validated its computers for port operations and signed a partnership with MākuSafe in the fourth quarter, enhancing its position in the port segment [11]. Future Outlook - The company aims to leverage its strong market position in rugged vehicle computers and anticipates growth as market conditions improve in 2026 [12].

Core Insights - Lenovo Group reported a revenue of 157.5 billion RMB for the third quarter of the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 18% and an adjusted net profit growth of 36%, doubling the revenue growth rate [1] Group Performance - All three major business segments of Lenovo achieved double-digit growth: - The IDG smart devices segment generated over 110 billion RMB in revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, maintaining industry-leading profitability and achieving a historic high market share in personal computer sales for the fiscal year 2025 [1] - The ISG infrastructure solutions segment reached 36.7 billion RMB in revenue, growing over 31% year-on-year, marking a historic high and moving closer to profitability [1] - The SSG solutions and services segment saw an 18% year-on-year revenue growth, achieving double-digit growth for the nineteenth consecutive quarter, with an operating profit margin rising to 22.5%, supporting overall profitability [1] AI Business Growth - AI-related revenue became a significant growth driver for Lenovo, with a year-on-year increase of 72% in the third quarter, accounting for 32% of total revenue. This includes high double-digit growth in AI PCs, triple-digit growth in AI smartphones, high double-digit growth in AI servers, and triple-digit growth in AI services, indicating a shift towards high-value business structures [1] Industry Trends - Lenovo's leadership highlighted that the computing industry is undergoing unprecedented restructuring driven by AI, with deep integration of hardware and software becoming the main theme of industry development. The value distribution of technology is being reshaped as computing power is embedded in end devices and industry scenarios [2] - The CEO of Lenovo emphasized the commitment to promoting hybrid AI to seize opportunities brought by AI's integration into daily life and business operations, aiming for accelerated growth and improved profitability for sustainable returns to shareholders [2]

Group 1 - The AI industry chain is experiencing a collective surge, with significant activity in AI hardware sectors such as CPO and chips, leading to an increase in relevant indices [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board Artificial Intelligence Index rose by 2.0%, while the CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship Artificial Intelligence Index increased by 1.1%, and the CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme Index went up by 0.9% [1] - The E Fund Artificial Intelligence ETF (159819) saw a net subscription of 16 million units during the morning session [1] Group 2 - The indices focus on leading companies in the AI sector, comprising 50 stocks with large market capitalizations involved in AI foundational resources, technology, and application support, with nearly 90% representation from the electronics, communications, and computer industries [3] - The E Fund Artificial Intelligence ETF tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Artificial Intelligence Index, which includes 30 large-cap stocks in the AI sector, focusing on computing power and application segments, with over 85% representation from electronics and computer industries [3]

Company Overview - Khaveen Investments is a global investment advisory firm serving high-net-worth individuals, corporations, associations, and institutions [1] - The firm is a registered investment adviser with the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) [1] - It offers comprehensive services including market and security research, business valuation, and wealth management [1] Investment Strategy - The flagship Macroquantamental Hedge Fund maintains a diversified portfolio with exposure to hundreds of investments across various asset classes, geographies, sectors, and industries [1] - The investment approach integrates top-down and bottom-up analysis, blending three core strategies: global macro, fundamental, and quantitative [1] Core Expertise - The firm specializes in disruptive technologies that are reshaping modern industries [1] - Key focus areas include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, 5G, Autonomous and Electric Vehicles, FinTech, Augmented and Virtual Reality, and the Internet of Things (IoT) [1]