国泰海通证券发布最新研报指出，联想集团(0992.HK)FY26Q3业绩表现亮眼，AI相关业务加速放量，三 大核心业务板块全面实现双位数增长。在全球AI从集中训练向推理阶段迁移的产业趋势下，公司通 过"混合式AI"战略构建终端、算力与服务的生态闭环，正实现从PC龙头向AI生态核心枢纽的跃迁。维 持"增持"评级，目标价13.3港元。 智能设备业务(IDG)实现营收1100亿元，同比增长14%。在核心元器件成本快速上行的情况下，IDG本 季度仍实现15%的运营利润增长，体现出较强的盈利韧性。 2)ISG高增创历史新高。 基础设施方案业务(ISG)营收达367亿元，同比增长超31%。其中AI服务器收入实现高双位数增长，AI服 务器储备订单已超过155亿美元；"海神"液冷技术业务同比增长达300%，显示公司在高性能算力领域的 竞争力持续提升。 3)SSG盈利能力领先。 方案服务业务(SSG)经营利润率达22.5%，为集团最高。非硬件绑定服务收入占比提升至60%，AI服务收 入同比实现三位数增长，"即服务"模式加速放量——DaaS营收同比增长32%，IaaS同比增长57%，标志 混合式AI解决方案正从试点阶段迈向规模化 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lenovo Group, with a target price adjusted to HKD 13.3 based on a FY2027 PE of 11x [11][13]. Core Insights - Lenovo Group is transitioning from a PC giant to a core hub of the AI ecosystem, driven by a closed-loop ecosystem of terminals, computing power, and services, resulting in significant revenue and profit growth [3][11]. - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 157.5 billion in FY26Q3, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, with adjusted net profit rising by 36% [11]. - AI-related revenue surged by 72% year-on-year, now accounting for 32% of total revenue, showcasing the effectiveness of Lenovo's mixed AI strategy [11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY2026E, FY2027E, and FY2028E are adjusted to USD 80.5 billion, USD 87.8 billion, and USD 94.8 billion, respectively, with Non-IFRS net profits projected at USD 1.74 billion, USD 1.95 billion, and USD 2.11 billion [5][13]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong operating profit growth across all three major business segments, with IDG, ISG, and SSG all achieving double-digit growth [11]. - The PE ratio is projected to decrease from 14.7 in 2024 to 7.1 in 2028, indicating a potential undervaluation compared to peers [5][15]. Business Segments Performance - IDG (Intelligent Devices Group) reported revenue of RMB 110 billion, with a 14% year-on-year growth, maintaining operational profit growth despite rising core component costs [11]. - ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) achieved a record revenue of RMB 36.7 billion, with over 31% year-on-year growth, driven by high double-digit growth in AI server revenue [11]. - SSG (Solutions and Services Group) led with a 22.5% operating profit margin, marking the scaling phase of AI services, with non-hardware-bound service revenue reaching 60% [11]. AI Strategy and Market Position - Lenovo's mixed AI strategy aligns with industry trends, focusing on AI PCs, AI servers, and edge computing, with a dual product system for personal and enterprise AI solutions [11]. - The company has established a closed-loop ecosystem for AI, collaborating with major players like NVIDIA to enhance its market position [11].

AI 驱动价值跃迁，生态闭环筑牢增长确定性 联想集团(0992) ——联想集团 FY26Q3 业绩点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 秦和平(分析师) | 0755-23976666 | qinheping@gtht.com | S0880523110003 | | 刁云鹏(研究助理) | 021-38674878 | diaoyunpeng@gtht.com | S0880125070016 | 本报告导读： 顺应 AI 从训练向推理转型趋势，联想集团构建终端、算力、服务生态闭环，营收与 利润增长显著，实现从 PC 巨头向 AI 生态核心枢纽的转型。 投资要点： | 财务摘要(百万美元) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 56,864 | 69,077 | 80,456 | 87,789 | 94,819 | | 同比增长（%） | -8.2% | 21.5% | 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo Group reported a record revenue of $22.2 billion for Q3 of the fiscal year 2025/2026, with a year-on-year growth of over 18% and a net profit increase of 36%, indicating strong operational performance across all business segments [2][6]. Business Performance Summary - All business segments of Lenovo achieved double-digit revenue growth in Q3, with personal computer sales continuing to outperform the market for ten consecutive quarters, leading to a historic market share high for the fiscal year 2025 [2]. - The ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) segment generated $5.2 billion in revenue, marking a year-on-year growth of over 31%, and is approaching profitability [5]. - The SSG (Solutions and Services Group) reported an 18% year-on-year revenue increase, achieving a 22.5% operating profit margin [2]. AI Revenue Growth - AI-related revenue for Lenovo grew by 72% year-on-year, now accounting for 32% of total revenue, highlighting the increasing importance of AI in the company's business model [3][4]. ISG Segment Insights - The ISG segment's revenue growth is attributed to structural optimization in enterprise servers, data centers, and industry solutions, with a focus on a dual-track strategy of cloud and enterprise infrastructure [7]. - The CSP (Cloud Service Provider) business saw a 37.1% revenue increase, while the E/SMB (Enterprise/Small and Medium Business) segment also achieved double-digit growth [7]. - Lenovo's strategic restructuring in the ISG segment aims to enhance productivity and competitiveness, with an expected annual net cost saving of approximately $200 million over the next three years [5][17]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The market for AI computing is rapidly evolving, with a predicted shift from training to local data center and edge inference, presenting significant opportunities for Lenovo [10][20]. - The global AI infrastructure market is expected to triple by 2028, driven by the increasing demand for AI-ready infrastructure [10]. - Lenovo's focus on local inference capabilities aligns with the anticipated growth in AI applications, emphasizing the importance of edge computing for businesses [19][20]. Operational Efficiency and Supply Chain Management - Lenovo's global and localized supply chain management has provided resilience and efficiency, allowing for cost control and improved delivery times [15][16]. - The company has strategically stockpiled storage chips to ensure production continuity through 2026, mitigating potential supply chain disruptions [17]. Long-term Strategic Vision - Lenovo's commitment to innovation and operational excellence is reflected in its ability to transition ISG from a loss-making phase to a path of profitability, with expectations of breakeven by the end of the fiscal year 2025/2026 [6][23]. - The company's long-term strategy emphasizes the importance of AI as a fundamental direction rather than a bubble, focusing on practical applications and infrastructure development [18][21].

Core Insights - Lenovo Group reported a strong performance in Q3 of the fiscal year 2025/26, with ISG infrastructure solutions revenue reaching 36.7 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of over 31% [1] Business Performance - The AI server revenue showed impressive growth, maintaining a high double-digit growth rate, with a backlog of orders amounting to 15.5 billion USD, making it one of the core growth engines for ISG [1] - The Neptune liquid cooling technology business achieved a remarkable year-on-year growth of 300% [1] Segment Analysis - The cloud infrastructure (CSP) business continued to benefit from the expanding demand for AI training, sustaining a high level of prosperity [1] - The enterprise infrastructure (E/SMB) business not only saw revenue growth but also improved gross margins through pricing management optimization and operational efficiency enhancements [1] - In terms of regional performance, ISG's business in China made significant breakthroughs, with enterprise infrastructure becoming an important source of profit [1]

本财季，联想ISG基础设施方案业务集团营收367亿人民币，同比增长超31%。其中，云基础设施(CSP) 业务持续受益于AI训练需求扩张，延续高景气度；企业基础设施(E/SMB)业务营收增长的同时，通过定 价管理优化与运营效率提升，实现毛利率持续改善。区域层面，ISG中国业务实现关键突破，企业基础 设施成为利润的重要贡献来源。 值得关注的是，本财季联想ISG业务亏损继续大幅收窄。公司介绍称，这主要得益于ISG于第三财季启 动战略性重组。预计该重组将在未来三年带来每年14亿人民币的净成本节省，推动盈利能力持续改善。 值得注意的是，本财季AI服务器收入保持高速增长，并拥有高达155亿美元的订单储备。同时，联想披 露了其部署了首个基于GB 300 NVL72的机架式解决方案，并同步完善产品矩阵，发布包括AI推理服务 器SR675i、SR650i和边缘计算服务器SE455i在内的推理优化产品组合，覆盖从数据中心到边缘侧的多层 级推理应用场景。此外，受益于企业级推理需求持续释放，其海神液冷技术业务同比增长300%，进一 步巩固该公司在高能效AI基础设施领域的市场地位。 2026年2月12日，全球AI生态链领先企业联想集团 ...

Group 1: Alphabet's Market Position - Alphabet's stock price rose by 2.43% to $321.98, increasing its market capitalization to $3.88 trillion, surpassing Apple for the first time since 2019 [1] - Since 2025, Alphabet's stock has surged over 60%, marking its best annual performance since the 2009 financial crisis, while Apple's stock increased by less than 10% [1] - The market's reaction reflects a shift in focus towards AI capabilities, indicating a restructured landscape for tech giants in the AI era [1] Group 2: AI Industry Development - Alphabet's market cap surpassing Apple is seen as a catalyst for accelerated AI industry development, prompting tech companies to invest in AI core competencies [2] - The focus on AI infrastructure and application development highlights the importance of energy as a core bottleneck, with companies like Lenovo leading in liquid cooling technology to address energy challenges [2] Group 3: Computing Power and Infrastructure - Computing power is the primary beneficiary of AI development, with Google aiming to double its computing capacity every six months and achieve a 1000-fold increase in the next 4 to 5 years [3] - Lenovo has established partnerships with major chip manufacturers like NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, and Qualcomm to enhance its AI computing infrastructure [3][4] Group 4: Energy Supply Challenges - The expansion of AI infrastructure necessitates a robust energy supply, leading major tech companies to invest directly in energy solutions [4] - Alphabet's acquisition of Intersect for $4.75 billion highlights the urgency for large tech firms to address energy bottlenecks in AI development [4] Group 5: Liquid Cooling Technology - Lenovo's liquid cooling technology has seen a 154% year-on-year revenue increase, significantly outpacing the server market growth [5] - The technology reduces system power consumption by 40% compared to traditional air cooling, with over 80,000 units deployed globally [5] Group 6: AI Model and Chip Integration - Google's Gemini series has surpassed OpenAI's GPT series, capturing 18% of the generative AI web traffic, indicating a competitive shift in the AI model landscape [8] - Google's TPU chips are now being marketed as alternatives to NVIDIA GPUs, with projected shipments reaching 3.7 million and 5 million units in 2026 and 2027, respectively [9] Group 7: Lenovo's Strategic Positioning - Lenovo's integration of Google's Gemini model into its products, such as the Lenovo Qira personal AI, showcases its strategy to leverage partnerships while maintaining a diverse AI application ecosystem [10] - As a key supplier of AI computing infrastructure, Lenovo's liquid cooling technology aligns well with Google's TPU chip requirements, enhancing its competitive edge [10] Group 8: Future Outlook - Alphabet's stock continued to rise, further solidifying its market lead over Apple, as the tech industry's focus shifts towards AI [11] - Companies like Lenovo are positioning themselves to become core players in the AI landscape by expanding their advantages in both computing power and application development [11]

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo Group benefits from AI-driven growth, maintaining its leading position in the PC market with rapid performance improvement [1] Group Summaries Business Performance - All three business groups achieved double-digit growth in the first half of the fiscal year 25/26, with AI-related revenue accounting for 29% of total revenue, a 15 percentage point increase year-on-year, indicating AI as the core growth driver [2] - The Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) saw a 15% year-on-year revenue increase, with global PC market share rising by 1.8 percentage points to a historical high of 25.6%, maintaining the top position globally [2] - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) experienced a significant 30% year-on-year revenue growth, driven by strong demand for AI servers, with proprietary liquid cooling technology achieving over 100% revenue growth in the second fiscal quarter [3] - The Solutions and Services Group (SSG) reported a 19% year-on-year revenue increase, achieving a record operating profit margin of 22%, with steady growth in support services and project solutions [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is executing its "Hybrid AI for All" strategy, launching a complete range of AI-driven devices and experiences across consumer, commercial, and mobile sectors [2] - The AIPC segment, a focus of the AI strategy, saw its shipment volume rise to 33% of total PC shipments, maintaining a 31.1% share in the global Windows AI PC market [2] - The company is increasing strategic investments in product development and business expansion to capitalize on AI opportunities, despite a reported operating loss of $118 million in the ISG segment [3] Financial Projections - The company maintains its earnings forecast, projecting revenues of $76.911 billion, $84.379 billion, and $92.349 billion for fiscal years 2026-2028, with net profits of $1.694 billion, $1.913 billion, and $2.196 billion respectively, corresponding to current P/E ratios of 9, 8, and 7 times [4]

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo Group reported a strong growth in the first half of the 2025/26 fiscal year, with revenue and net profit (under non-Hong Kong financial reporting standards) increasing by 18% and 24% respectively. All three major business groups achieved double-digit year-on-year growth, demonstrating the effectiveness of the hybrid AI strategy [1][5]. Group Summaries IDG Group - The Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) saw a revenue increase of 15% year-on-year, with the global market share of personal computers reaching a historic high of 25.6%, up by 1.8 percentage points. The AI PC penetration rate rose to 33% of total PC shipments, maintaining a leading position in the global Windows AI PC market with a share of 31.1% [2][5]. ISG Group - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) experienced a significant revenue growth of 30% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for AI servers. The proprietary Neptune liquid cooling technology saw revenue more than double year-on-year, supported by over a hundred patents developed over the past decade, creating competitive advantages in the liquid cooling sector. However, the group reported an operating loss of $118 million, which widened due to increased strategic investments in product development and business expansion [3][5]. SSG Group - The Solutions and Services Group (SSG) achieved a revenue growth of 19% year-on-year, reaching a historic high with an operating profit margin of 22%. Support services, operational services, and project solutions all showed steady growth, with operational and project solutions services accounting for 58.9% of total revenue. The order volume for TruScale doubled year-on-year, reflecting the successful promotion of Device as a Service (DaaS) and Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) [4][5]. Investment Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting revenues for the fiscal years 2026-2028 to be $76.911 billion, $84.379 billion, and $92.349 billion respectively, with net profits of $1.694 billion, $1.913 billion, and $2.196 billion, corresponding to current P/E ratios of 9, 8, and 7 times. The "Buy" rating is upheld [1][5].

Core Insights - Lenovo Group reported a record revenue of 146.4 billion RMB for Q2 of the fiscal year 2025/26, marking a 15% year-on-year increase, significantly exceeding market expectations [1] - Adjusted net profit rose by 25% to 3.66 billion RMB, indicating a faster growth rate compared to revenue [1] - The CEO emphasized the company's strategic clarity, operational excellence, and continuous innovation as key drivers behind the record performance [1] Revenue Breakdown - The Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) generated 108.1 billion RMB, a 12% increase, with PC market share surpassing 25% for the first time [1] - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) achieved approximately 29.3 billion RMB in revenue, up 24%, with significant growth in AI infrastructure [1] - The Solutions and Services Group (SSG) reported nearly 20% revenue growth, marking the 18th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth [1] AI Business Growth - AI-related revenue now accounts for 30% of total revenue, a 13 percentage point increase year-on-year, highlighting AI's role as a core growth driver [2] - Lenovo's AI PC market share in the Windows AI PC segment is 31.1%, reinforcing user recognition of Lenovo's AI terminal experience [2] - AI server revenue saw high double-digit growth, with liquid cooling technology revenue increasing by 154% year-on-year [2] Future Outlook - The CEO stated the company will leverage its unique "global resources, local delivery" model to navigate uncertainties and seize opportunities presented by hybrid AI [3]