Core Viewpoint - Coherent reported strong financial results for Q2 FY2026, with adjusted EPS of $1.29 and revenue of $1.69 billion, driven by significant demand from AI data centers, although the stock fell 2% post-announcement due to profit-taking pressures [3][11][52]. Financial Performance - Adjusted EPS of $1.29 exceeded market expectations of $1.22, marking a 35% year-over-year increase [11][52]. - Revenue reached $1.69 billion, surpassing expectations and setting a quarterly record, with a year-over-year growth of 22% [11][52]. - Non-GAAP gross margin improved to 39%, reflecting operational efficiencies and cost reductions [52][53]. Demand and Orders - The company experienced a "step-function increase" in orders, particularly in the data center sector, with a book-to-bill ratio exceeding 4 [11][41]. - Demand for 1.6T transceivers is accelerating, with expectations for significant growth in both 800G and 1.6T products throughout 2026 [22][62]. - Most of the 2026 calendar year capacity has been booked, with orders extending into 2027 and even 2028 for some major clients [15][61]. Production and Capacity Expansion - Coherent achieved breakthroughs in 6-inch indium phosphide (InP) production, increasing wafer output by over four times and reducing costs by approximately 50% [6][26]. - The company plans to double its internal InP capacity by the end of this year, with current wafer starts reaching 80% of the target [23][58]. - The strategic shift to 6-inch wafers is expected to enhance supply capabilities and pricing power in the market [27][75]. Product Development and Market Opportunities - Coherent secured a significant CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) order from a leading AI data center client, indicating a shift from concept to substantial deployment [28][45]. - The OCS (Optical Circuit Switching) platform has gained traction, with over 10 clients and a growing backlog, suggesting a market opportunity exceeding $2 billion [32][46]. - The transition from 800G to 1.6T in AI data centers is expected to drive demand for high-bandwidth, low-power interconnect solutions [21][18]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued strong revenue growth in the upcoming quarters, driven by robust demand and capacity expansion [36][49]. - Guidance for Q3 FY2026 projects revenue between $1.7 billion and $1.84 billion, with non-GAAP gross margins expected to range from 38.5% to 40.5% [15][60].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference discusses the trends in the optical module industry, focusing on technologies such as CPO (Co-Packaged Optics), NPO (Near-Packaged Optics), CPC (Co-Packaged Copper), and their implications for network architecture and cloud service providers [1][2][4][19]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Network Architecture Breakdown**: The network architecture can be divided into two main approaches: Scale Up and Scale Out, further detailed into six specific scenarios, which helps clarify the application of different technologies [3]. - **CPC Technology**: CPC is noted for its ability to reduce losses and is expected to remain relevant until 2030. Major companies are developing 3.2T pluggable module solutions [4][15]. - **NPO vs. CPO**: NPO offers advantages in maintenance and is more accepted by cloud service providers due to its open ecosystem, while CPO faces challenges with packaging yield and maintenance costs [6][11][12]. - **Market Acceptance**: Cloud service providers show low acceptance of CPU technologies, with companies like Google explicitly rejecting them in favor of NPO, which aligns better with their preference for open ecosystems [12][13]. - **Challenges for NVIDIA**: NVIDIA faces challenges in promoting its CPU solutions due to limited CoWoS capacity from TSMC and the need to prove reliability through extensive testing [7][12]. Technical Comparisons - **CPU vs. NPU**: The commercial speed of NPU is faster due to its detachable design and simpler packaging, with expected shipments starting in 2027, while CPU testing is lengthy and slow [8]. - **Performance Metrics**: In terms of bandwidth, power consumption, loss, and latency, both CPU and NPU show similar performance, with CPU having a slight edge in power consumption [9]. - **Cost Considerations**: Currently, NPO is seen as having a cost advantage over CPO due to lower maintenance costs and better yield rates, despite CPO's theoretical lower costs [10][11]. Future Trends and Market Dynamics - **Shift in Supplier Strategies**: Companies like Broadcom are shifting towards supporting NPU technologies, reflecting a broader market trend away from CPU reliance [13][14]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The valuation of optical module companies is currently low, presenting a potential investment opportunity as market misjudgments may lead to undervaluation [21]. - **Technological Advancements**: The rapid development of silicon photonics technology is expected to enhance product margins and market share, with leading companies like Xuchuang making significant advancements [20]. Additional Important Insights - **Industry Consolidation**: The optical module industry is expected to see increased competition and consolidation, with leading firms maintaining high profit margins due to their technological advancements [20]. - **Future of Optical Module Companies**: These companies are transitioning from mere assembly to comprehensive solution providers, requiring capabilities in semiconductor design and advanced packaging [19].

今天上午，A股调整，截至上午收盘，上证指数微跌，接近平盘报收，深证成指下跌0.92%，创业板指下跌1.74%。 盘面上，顺周期行情走强，资源股、地产基建产业链、大消费、化工等板块表现活跃。AI硬件和AI应用板块跌幅较大，引发市场关注。 具体看，AI硬件方面，中际旭创（300308）、新易盛（300502）两大光模块龙头股开盘就持续下跌，盘中均一度跌超10%。两大龙头股的走势，直接"带 崩"了AI硬件板块，胜宏科技（300476）、工业富联（601138）、英维克（002837）等其他细分领域的硬件龙头股均下跌。截至上午收盘，中际旭创、新 易盛分别下跌5.24%、5.66%。 | 中际旭创 ▽ | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300308 ■ 深股通 L1 | | | | | 高 558.80 525.13 代 | | 2.06 574.55 市值 6208.9亿 量比 流通 6177.5亿 换 | 3.58% | | -30.90 -5.24% 开 | | 570.00 市盈 72.72 额 216.96亿 | | | 同花顺 帮诺 | | 异动解读：资金流出+板块回调 ...

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Performance Highlights - New Yi Sheng (300502.SZ) expects net profit between 9.4 billion and 9.9 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 231.24% to 248.86% due to rising demand for high-speed optical modules driven by global computing power investments[4] - Han's Chip (688256.SH) anticipates net profit between 1.85 billion and 2.15 billion CNY, turning from a loss of 450 million CNY last year, benefiting from the growing demand for AI computing power[5] - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) projects net profit between 9.8 billion and 11.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year growth of 89.50% to 128.17%, driven by strong customer investment in computing infrastructure[6] - Runze Technology (300442.SZ) expects net profit between 5 billion and 5.3 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 179.28% to 196.03%, largely due to non-recurring gains from public REITs issuance[10] Underperformance Highlights - Great Wall Motors (601633.SH) forecasts net profit of 9.912 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 21.71% due to increased marketing expenses and competitive pressures[36] - GAC Group (601238.SH) expects a net loss between 8 billion and 9 billion CNY, turning from a profit of 824 million CNY last year, impacted by fierce competition and increased asset impairment provisions[39] - Xiexin Integrated (002506.SZ) anticipates a net loss between 890 million and 1.29 billion CNY, shifting from a profit of 68 million CNY last year due to structural supply-demand issues in the photovoltaic industry[41] - Baile Tianheng (688506.SH) projects a net loss of around 1.1 billion CNY, down from a profit of 3.708 billion CNY last year, primarily due to increased R&D expenses[42] Industry Trends - Technology-driven sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals are leading growth, with companies like New Yi Sheng and Han's Chip benefiting from strong demand and technological advancements[69] - Cost control is becoming a critical competitive advantage, particularly in the energy and manufacturing sectors, as seen with companies like Datang Power (601991.SH) benefiting from lower coal prices[70] - Traditional cyclical industries such as real estate and agriculture are facing significant downward pressure, with companies like Vanke (000002.SZ) and Tianbang Foods (002124.SZ) experiencing substantial losses due to market adjustments[72]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Overseas computing power and optical module market - **Key Companies Mentioned**: 西部通信 (West Communication), 中际旭创 (Zhongji Xuchuang), 新易盛 (Xinyi Sheng), 英维克 (Yingweike), 福晶科技 (Fujing Technology) Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Optical Module Market**: - Strong demand and material shortages expected in H1 2026, with leading companies showing supply chain advantages [1] - Market sentiment is improving as previous suppressive factors are alleviated, allowing funds to enter the market early [1] - Key price catalysts will emerge as industry guidance for 2027 becomes clearer, particularly after the OFC conference in March [1] - Performance in H1 2026 is anticipated to be the highest among leading optical module companies, with H2 2026 expected to see accelerated performance due to material supply easing [1] 2. **Liquid Cooling Solutions**: - 2026 is projected to be the first year of significant adoption for liquid cooling solutions, with major companies like NV, Meta, and Google leading the way [2] - Estimated value of liquid cooling solutions is approximately $1,400 per 1kW chip, translating to a market potential of $21 billion for 15 million chips [2] - Domestic leaders in liquid cooling for ASIC chips are expected to capture over 20% market share, with overseas orders potentially yielding double the profit margins compared to domestic [2] 3. **Price Increases in Communication Products**: - Recommendations to invest in core communication products due to ongoing price increases driven by supply constraints [2] - Significant supply reductions from global suppliers of Faraday rotators, with Japanese company Granopt reducing production and issuing supply cut notices [2] - Domestic manufacturers like 森一 (Senyi), 飞锐特 (Feiruite), and 福晶科技 (Fujing Technology) are positioned to increase their market share through domestic substitution [2] 4. **Self-Sufficiency in SGGG Crystals**: - 福晶科技 has achieved self-sufficiency in SGGG crystal materials, which is expected to alleviate expansion bottlenecks and significantly increase market share [3] 5. **Data Center Fiber Pricing**: - Continuous price increases for fiber cables noted since January, with expectations of rising demand and prices from domestic operators [3] - Fiber optic cable manufacturers are adopting "same-day valid" pricing due to volatility in raw material costs, leading to a cautious expansion approach [3] Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the overseas computing power sector is shifting positively, with early investments being made in anticipation of future growth [1][2] - The liquid cooling market is set for rapid growth, with significant opportunities for domestic companies to capture market share [2] - The supply chain dynamics in the optical module and communication product markets are critical, with potential for substantial price increases due to supply constraints [2][3]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Overseas computing power and optical modules - **Key Companies Mentioned**: 西部通信 (West Communication), 中际旭创 (Inspur), 新易盛 (NewEase), 英维克 (Invec), 福晶科技 (Fujing Technology), 长飞光纤 (Changfei Fiber), 亨通光电 (Hengtong Optic), 中天科技 (ZTE Technology) Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Optical Module Demand**: Strong demand and material shortages expected in H1 2026, with leading companies showcasing supply chain advantages. The release of previous performance forecast suppression is alleviating, and market pressures are easing, allowing funds to enter early in a strong industry trend [1] 2. **Future Catalysts**: Attention is shifting to clearer industry guidance for 2027, anticipated post the OFC conference in March, and new technology trends (NPO/CPO) that will promote scale-up scenarios. The short-term performance realization will depend on upstream supply chain material and capacity resolution [1] 3. **Liquid Cooling Solutions**: 2026 is projected to be the first year of significant liquid cooling adoption, with NV, Meta, and Google leading commercial applications. The estimated value of liquid cooling solutions for ASIC chips is substantial, with potential market size reaching $21 billion [2] 4. **Market Share Potential**: Domestic leaders in liquid cooling solutions for ASIC chips are expected to capture over 20% market share, with overseas orders potentially yielding double the profit margins compared to domestic ones [2] 5. **Price Increases in Key Components**: Recommendations include focusing on core price-increasing products in communication, particularly SGGG crystals and Faraday rotators. Global supply reductions are creating significant gaps, with domestic manufacturers poised to increase their market share [3] 6. **Data Center Fiber Pricing**: Continuous price increases for fiber optic cables are noted, with domestic operators expecting both volume and price increases. Manufacturers are adopting "same-day effective" pricing due to raw material price volatility, indicating a cautious expansion approach [3] Additional Important Insights - **Performance Realization Timing**: The performance realization for leading optical module companies is expected to be highest in H1 2026, with H2 2026 anticipated to see accelerated performance due to easing material supply [1] - **Investment Recommendations**: Strong buy recommendations for 中际旭创 and 新易盛 based on anticipated strong alpha in H1 2026, and 英维克 is expected to see significant acceleration in Q2 2026, with potential for valuation premium in 2027 [2] - **Domestic Production Capabilities**: 福晶科技 has achieved self-sufficiency in SGGG crystal materials, which could alleviate expansion bottlenecks and significantly enhance market share [3]

用业绩消化估值，光模块龙头中际旭创交出了一份让市场满意的答卷。 1月30日晚，中际旭创发布了2025年度业绩预告，预告显示，2025年预计公司实现净利润98亿元至118亿元，同比增长89.50%至128.17%，去年同期净利润为 51.71亿元；实现扣非净利润97亿元至117亿元之间，同比增长91.38% 至130.84%，去年同期为50.68亿元。 | 项目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司股 | 盈利: 980,000 万元 - 1,180,000 万元 | 盈利: 517,148.60 万元 | | 东的净利润 | 比上年同期增加:89.50% - 128.17% | | | 扣除非经常性损益 后的净利润 | 盈利: 970,000 万元 - 1,170,000 万元 | 盈利:506.835.63 万元 | | | 比上年同期增加:91.38% - 130.84% | | 从整体增速来讲，经过2024年的爆发式增长，2025年的营收增速有所放缓，但净利润增速依旧保持在高位水平。 按照第2025年前三季度71.32亿元的净利润水平来看，若按照预告 ...

上周五上证指数报4117.95点(-0.96%)，深证成指报14205.89点(-0.66%)，创业板指逆势收涨1.27%。沪深 两市成交额约2.84万亿元，较前一交易日缩量近4000亿元。涨幅居前的板块包括CPO(共封装光学)、农 业(种业、大豆)、通信设备及春节消费相关影视、白酒等，其中长飞光纤、亨通光电、天孚通信、杰普 特等多只光模块概念股涨停；跌幅方面，有色金属板块集体重挫，尤其是贵金属方向领跌，晓程科技、 湖南白银、白银有色等多股跌停，板块整体跌幅近8%，主因国际金银价格大幅回调及前期获利盘集中 兑现。 在今日券商晨会上，华泰证券认为，重视胜率，关注绩优、低位方向；中信证券认为，脱虚向实，重视 涨价线索的扩散；东方财富证券认为，春季行情未完，小结构需要出现调整切换。 华泰证券：重视胜率，关注绩优、低位方向 上周A股高位震荡，大盘价值占优。向后看，节前风险偏好抬升的制约因素偏多：外部，凯文·沃什或接 任联储主席，由于其此前被认为是通胀鹰派，美元、美债利率上行，风险资产承压；内部，随着行情向 白酒等估值低位板块扩散，轮动加快下攫取超额收益的难度加大，技术性调整压力和长假效应下资金获 利了结意愿上升。但本 ...

Group 1 - Baidu Intelligent Cloud has set an ambitious AI-related revenue growth target of 200% by 2026, up from the previous target of 100%, aiming to lead the AI cloud market [1] - According to IDC, the global AI cloud market is expected to exceed $400 billion by 2030, indicating significant growth potential [2] - In 2025, major Chinese cloud vendors are projected to secure a total of 341 contracts related to large models, amounting to approximately 2.7 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - Baidu Intelligent Cloud has secured 109 projects with a total bid amount of about 900 million yuan, maintaining the top position in both project count and bid amount for two consecutive years [2] - Citic Securities reports that the demand for AI computing power is expanding, with the optical module industry experiencing continued upward momentum [2] - Citic Securities also notes that Amazon's recent 15% price increase for its AI computing service EC2 marks a break from the long-standing trend of decreasing cloud service prices, reflecting tight supply conditions [2] Group 3 - Citic Securities suggests monitoring cloud service providers that may follow suit with price increases, while continuing to recommend the AI computing power sector and AI applications [3] - The AI computing power sector is currently experiencing a period of adjustment, which is viewed as an opportunity by Citic Securities [4] - Relevant Hong Kong stocks in the AI computing power sector include Changfei Optical Fiber and Cable, Cambridge Technology, Hong Teng Precision, and Huiju Technology [5]