（原标题：市值已蒸发超万亿美元，软件业会成为下一个"报纸"吗？） 由于投资者担忧AI工具会对软件行业造成颠覆性的冲击，一月下旬以来，美股市场软件股市值已蒸发 超过一万亿美元。 当地时间2月17日周二，美国市场在周一休市后迎来本周首个交易日，软件板块主要基准ETF基金 iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF（IGV）收报80.96美元，下跌2.19%，2026年初以来该ETF累 计跌幅超过23%，表现显著落后于标普500指数。 AI智能体将"颠覆"软件行业？ 美股软件板块早在2025年后期就出现相对疲软迹象，投资者担忧AI技术会使相当部分的软件被AI应用 或AI智能体取代，进而颠覆软件行业的传统商业模式。2026年1月以来，部分SaaS（软件即服务）公司 发布保守业绩指引，提及销售周期延长及企业评估AI智能体的影响，导致整个板块估值开始调整。 最大的催化因素可能出现在1月12日，人工智能公司Anthropic推出Claude大模型的工具Cowork及其行业 特定插件，大模型插件涵盖法律、金融、销售、营销、数据分析等领域，该工具将Claude Code的智能 体能力扩展 ...

在受人工智能工具威胁的软件股暴跌后，华尔街正在重估其被过度抛售的可能性，而散户投资者正在排 队逢低买入。据城堡证券股票及股票衍生品策略主管Scott Rubner称，散户交易员在城堡证券平台上购 买软件股票的支出创下历史新高。该公司自 2017 年开始追踪该数据。 Rubner周二在给客户的报告中写道："我们平台上的净名义金额已达到前所未有的水平。购买活动的规 模、持续时间和广度都显著超过了之前的峰值，凸显了散户在2026年初作为新增需求主要来源的作 用。" 自 Anthropic PBC 推出一款专为企业内部法律团队量身定制的效率工具以来，从小型软件开发商到大型 财富管理公司，所有相关企业都受到了抛售潮的影响。法律软件和出版类股随后也遭遇暴跌。Altruist Corp. 推出税务策略工具后，跌势进一步加剧，导致嘉信理财(SCHW.US)和LPL Financial(LPLA.US)的股 价下跌。 Rubner写道："在过去的 42 周中，散户期权投资者有 41 周倾向于净买入，这种一致性表明风险偏好持 续存在，而不是零星的仓位变动。" 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 全面买入 责任编辑：安东 ...

智通财经APP获悉，在受人工智能工具威胁的软件股暴跌后，华尔街正在重估其被过度抛售的可能性， 而散户投资者正在排队逢低买入。据城堡证券股票及股票衍生品策略主管Scott Rubner称，散户交易员 在城堡证券平台上购买软件股票的支出创下历史新高。该公司自 2017 年开始追踪该数据。 Rubner周二在给客户的报告中写道："我们平台上的净名义金额已达到前所未有的水平。购买活动的规 模、持续时间和广度都显著超过了之前的峰值，凸显了散户在2026年初作为新增需求主要来源的作 用。" 自 Anthropic PBC 推出一款专为企业内部法律团队量身定制的效率工具以来，从小型软件开发商到大型 财富管理公司，所有相关企业都受到了抛售潮的影响。法律软件和出版类股随后也遭遇暴跌。Altruist Corp. 推出税务策略工具后，跌势进一步加剧，导致嘉信理财(SCHW.US)和LPL Financial(LPLA.US)的股 价下跌。 全面买入 软件领域的抛售潮波及整个市场，投资者纷纷抛售所有被认为会被人工智能技术取代的公司的股票，即 使只有极小风险。 当包括对冲基金在内的专业投资者以创纪录的速度加大反向做空力度时，散户投资 ...

【欧股】德国DAX30指数涨264.43点，涨幅1.06%，报25,269.77点；英国富时100指数涨131.73点，涨幅 1.25%，报10,687.90点；法国CAC40指数涨67.57点，涨幅0.81%，报8,429.03点；欧洲斯托克50指数涨 80.81点，涨幅1.34%，报6,102.66点；西班牙IBEX35指数涨240.36点，涨幅1.34%，报18,195.76点；意大 利富时MIB指数涨565.43点，涨幅1.24%，报46,329.50点。 周三，三大指数收涨，科技股领涨。美联储最新会议纪要显示，官员们再次表达了对通胀的担忧，几位 政策制定者建议，如果通胀持续高于目标，央行可能需要加息。 【美股】截至收盘，道指涨129.47点，涨幅为0.26%，报49662.66点；纳指涨175.25点，涨幅为0.78%， 报22753.63点；标普500指数涨38.09点，涨幅为0.56%，报6881.31点。明星科技股多数走高，英伟达 (NVDA.US)涨1.63%，美光科技(MU.US)涨5.3%，微软(MSFT.US)涨0.69%。 城堡证券：软件股惨遭抛售之际，散户正以"前所未见"速度抄底。 ...

当地时间2月18日（周三），美股三大指数集体收高，截至收盘，道指涨129.47点，涨幅为0.26%，报49662.66点；纳指涨175.25点，涨幅为0.78%，报 22753.63点；标普500指数涨38.09点，涨幅为0.56%，报6881.31点。 当天（北京时间2月19日凌晨），美联储公布了1月货币政策会议纪要。纪要显示，官员在利率前景问题上出现明显分歧，在抑制通胀和支持劳动力市场之 间摇摆不定。其中，多位参会官员表示，如果通胀按其预期下降，进一步降息很可能将是合适的。部分决策官员则对进一步降息持谨慎态度。值得注意的 是，会议纪要还首次提到，有官员讨论了加息的可能性。 此外，美国声称仍然存在对伊朗动武的可能性，导致国际油价大涨。 美联储发布会议纪要 美联储会议纪要显示，与会者普遍赞同将关键利率维持在3.5%至3.75%区间不变的决定。然而，官员们对随后的货币政策方向存在分歧。 会议纪要显示，"几乎所有"美联储官员都赞同维持利率稳定的决定，认为这是在去年降息75个基点后评估经济状况的一种方式。不过，美联储的两位理事 斯蒂芬·米兰和克里斯托弗·沃勒投出了反对票，他们倾向于降息25个基点。 会议纪要将1月份 ...

Market Overview - The short-term probability of interest rate cuts in the US stock market appears low, making it difficult to provide support [6] - After a recent sell-off in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, US stocks have stabilized, with the S&P 500 index rising by 38.09 points, or 0.56%, to 6881.31 points as of February 18 [1] - The "Tech Seven" stocks, including Nvidia and Amazon, saw significant gains, with Nvidia's stock rising nearly 1.63% due to a new agreement with Meta [2] Technology Sector Insights - Despite some Wall Street firms believing the AI sell-off is nearing its end, skepticism remains among investors regarding the impact of large capital expenditures on tech giants' cash flow and buyback ratios [1][2] - The software sector has faced a significant decline, with a drop of approximately 24% over the past three months, although future earnings estimates are projected to be about 5% higher [2] - High capital expenditures from major cloud service providers are expected to account for 92% of their operating cash flow this year, surpassing investment intensity seen in the late 1990s [4] Earnings and Profitability - The S&P 500 is expected to report double-digit earnings growth for the fifth consecutive quarter, with profit margins reaching a record 12.6% [5] - The disparity in performance between the equal-weighted S&P 500 and the market-cap weighted index is attributed to the "Tech Seven" stocks' negative returns of -5.9% [4] AI and Software Market Dynamics - Traders are increasingly warming to the idea of buying software stocks at lower prices, despite the recent sell-off [3] - AI technology is viewed as a powerful enhancement rather than a fundamental replacement, relying heavily on existing record systems for data [3] Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with a focus on inflation risks [7] - The labor market's stability and the anticipated growth in AI capital expenditures are expected to drive GDP beyond expectations, complicating the outlook for inflation [8]

Market Overview - Major indices closed higher, with technology stocks leading the gains. The Dow Jones increased by 129.47 points (0.26%) to 49,662.66, the Nasdaq rose by 175.25 points (0.78%) to 22,753.63, and the S&P 500 gained 38.09 points (0.56%) to 6,881.31 [1] - European markets also saw gains, with the DAX30 up by 264.43 points (1.06%) to 25,269.77, the FTSE 100 rising by 131.73 points (1.25%) to 10,687.90, and the CAC40 increasing by 67.57 points (0.81%) to 8,429.03 [1] Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin fell over 1.8% to $66,298, while Ethereum dropped more than 2% to $1,947.26 [2] Commodities - Spot gold briefly surpassed $5,000 before closing at $4,976.39 [3] - WTI crude oil rose by 4.6%, closing around $65 per barrel, while Brent crude surpassed $70 per barrel for the first time in over two weeks [4] Economic Data - U.S. industrial production growth reached its highest level in nearly a year, with a 0.7% increase driven by broad manufacturing growth and healthy utility output. Manufacturing output alone grew by 0.6%, marking the largest increase since February 2025 [5] - New housing starts in the U.S. rose to their highest level in five months, with a year-over-year increase of 6.2%, reaching an annualized rate of 1.4 million units [5] Federal Reserve Insights - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed a shift in focus from labor market risks to inflation concerns, with officials warning that progress in reducing inflation may be slower and more uneven than expected [7] - There is little willingness among Federal Reserve officials to lower interest rates, with most preferring to see more progress on inflation before considering any cuts [8] Company News - Figma reported Q4 revenue of $300 million, a 40% year-over-year increase, exceeding guidance. The company anticipates Q1 revenue between $315 million and $317 million [10] - Bank of America is expanding its rewards program to attract more customers, allowing all checking account holders to enjoy rewards regardless of their balance, aiming to double profits in its consumer business to $20 billion by the end of the decade [11]

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - Technology and energy stocks were the main drivers of the US stock market's rise on Wednesday, with the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks all closing higher, led by Amazon and Nvidia, which both saw intraday gains of nearly 3% [1] - Nvidia's stock price benefited from a new agreement with Meta to deploy millions of Nvidia chips over the coming years [1] - Amazon's stock was supported by a 65% increase in holdings from Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, despite a 77% cut in holdings by Berkshire Hathaway [1] - Major US stock indices showed gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.56% to 6881.31 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.26% to 49662.66 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.78% to 22753.635 points [10] Group 2: Economic Data and Federal Reserve - Strong economic data, including December new housing starts and core capital goods orders, exceeded expectations, temporarily overshadowing AI-related concerns and supporting gains in major US stock indices [2] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed internal divisions regarding interest rate decisions, with some officials advocating for the inclusion of potential rate hikes in guidance, which led to a reduction in stock gains [3] Group 3: Energy Sector - Energy stocks were boosted by a rebound in oil prices, with US oil prices rising over 5% at one point, marking the largest increase in nearly four months [33] - The potential for military action against Iran by the US has increased, contributing to the rise in oil prices, with WTI crude oil closing at $65.19 per barrel, up 4.59% [34] Group 4: Precious Metals - Gold prices initially rose above $5000 but fell back below this level after the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes were released, with spot gold closing at $4985.45, up 2.2% for the day [35][37] - Silver prices also saw significant gains, with COMEX silver futures rising 5.5% to $77.598 per ounce [38]

本文源自：金融界AI电报 随着华尔街因受AI工具威胁而疯狂对软件制造商股票重新定价，一群投资者正排队逢低买入。据城堡 证券股票及股票衍生品策略主管斯科特·鲁布纳称，散户交易者在其平台上抢购软件股的金额达到创纪 录水平。该公司自2017年开始追踪该数据。"我们平台上的净名义价值已达到我们从未见过的水平，"鲁 布纳在周二给客户的报告中写道，"买入活动的规模、持续性和广度已大幅超过之前的峰值，突显出散 户在2026年初作为增量需求主要来源的角色。"自从Anthropic PBC推出了一款为内部法律团队定制的生 产力工具以来，从小型软件开发商到大型财富管理公司等各种股票都卷入了抛售潮。 ...

昨夜的美股出现了戏剧性逆转，盘初的时候纳斯达克指数跌幅达到了1.29%，道琼斯指数一度跳水330点，但是凌晨之后，三大指数开始收复了失地，道指 从下跌转为上涨，纳指收盘时还上涨了0.14%。 至于说原因，一来是高盛的研究报告，表明了虽然人工智能对企业有一些负面影响，不过华尔街的分析师依然提高了对软件行业的收益预期，这使得市场情 绪有所缓解； 二来是美联储部分官员们的讲话，比如说旧金山联储主席表示，在达到中性利率之前，美联储大约还有75个基点的降息空间；还比如说芝加哥联储主席古尔 斯比表态，如果通胀率持续下降，未来美联储依然会有多次降息空间。 说说我个人的看法： 不是我对美股悲观，而是过去三个月的美股几乎没有怎么向上拓展空间，持续维持在高位横盘震荡，出现这种走势的因素也很简单，美股大型科技公司的创 新出现了停滞，或者说没有值得让市场更为兴奋的促发点。 要知道此前美股的牛市，就是科技公司不断推出颠覆市场认知的产品和技术，让全球资金对美股的认知达到情绪高点，如今看这些光环好像已经不再了，当 然了如果后续创新的逻辑继续爆发，我相信美股还会继续走高的。 不过从我自身的角度而言，对当前的美股还是要保持警惕，我始终觉得未来 ...