Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The return of everyday dining and the rise of home-cooked meals are significant trends, with the market for casual dining exceeding 1.2 trillion RMB, emphasizing high cost-performance [5][58] - The creator economy, particularly in the music streaming sector, is experiencing stable growth, with platforms enhancing their bargaining power through non-music content [22][24] - The casual dining market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.1% from 2023 to 2028, reaching 55.87 billion RMB by 2028 [56][58] Summary by Sections 1. Trend in Casual Dining - The average spending on Chinese dining has decreased from 87.6 RMB in 2023 to 79.2 RMB in 2024, a decline of 9.6% [53][55] - The casual dining market is characterized by a shift towards high cost-performance and practicality, with a significant increase in home cooking frequency [53][56] - The market for affordable casual dining (under 100 RMB per meal) is the largest segment, accounting for 88.7% of the total dining market, with a current size of 36.18 billion RMB [56][58] 2. Creator Economy and Music Streaming - The global music streaming market is projected to reach over 20.4 billion USD in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.3% [27][30] - Subscription users in the music streaming sector are expected to grow to 263 million in 2024, reflecting an increase of 11% year-on-year [30] - Spotify's market penetration in emerging markets is driving user growth, with a CAGR of 35% from 2021 to 2025 [26][30] 3. Trends in Toy and Creator Economy - The online sales of trendy toys in June 2025 reached 1.348 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 16% [12][14] - The sales of blind boxes and plush toys showed strong performance, with blind boxes growing by 109% year-on-year [12][13] - The creator economy is bolstered by the growth of non-music content, enhancing platforms' bargaining power [22][24] 4. Beauty and Personal Care Market - The skincare market on Tmall has seen a concentration increase, with the top 20 brands accounting for 46.2% of the total GMV [66] - Domestic brands have seen a decline in both quantity and market share, while international brands have experienced double-digit growth [66][67]

Industry Environment - Traditional luxury brands with similar aesthetics are being surpassed by more agile and culturally rooted competitors, facing a significant challenge in the global luxury market with an expected decline of 2%-5% in 2024 [1] - The luxury market is experiencing varied performance across regions, with the US and China showing weakness, while Europe remains stable and the Middle East and Southeast Asia demonstrate resilience [1] - Brands are responding to market challenges through innovation, diverse experiences, and entry-level products, emphasizing the need for creativity, technology, and customer relationships to attract younger consumers [1] Emotional Economy - The popularity of Labubu highlights the potential of the emotional economy in the toy market, with projected sales exceeding 3 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - There is a growing focus on the emotional needs of the elderly, with a significant increase in searches and sales for senior-friendly toys, reflecting demands for social interaction and cognitive training [2] - The senior toy market is moving towards standardization and technological innovation, aiming to foster intergenerational emotional connections and enhance the well-being of older adults [2] Outdoor Sports - Outdoor sports are becoming increasingly popular among young people, with a surge in sales of related products on e-commerce platforms [3] - The 95 post-90s generation participates in outdoor activities to relieve stress and connect with nature, pushing the industry from niche to mainstream [3] - Despite potential market bubbles, the outdoor equipment market is projected to reach 65.93 billion yuan by 2030, necessitating a balance between marketing and product development for sustainable growth [3] Fashion Trends - The shift from loose silhouettes to fitted tailoring is evident in Martine Rose's spring/summer collection, inspired by childhood experiences and retro styles [4] - The fashion industry is returning to traditional fitted designs to address creative stagnation, with brands like Acne Studios and Saint Laurent also emphasizing tailored cuts [4] Luxury Goods Market - During the Tmall 618 shopping festival, luxury brands saw significant growth, with Tmall's GMV increasing by 10% year-on-year and luxury goods outperforming other categories [5] - The platform's initiatives, such as the "Red Cat Plan," have driven traffic and doubled brand sales through live streaming and AI technology [5] Footwear Market - High-priced running shoes have become a status symbol among China's middle class, serving both health and social purposes [6] - As consumers become more price-conscious, the market is seeing increased competition, necessitating a return to value and technological innovation for sustained growth [6] Brand Communication - Luxury brands like LOEWE and Balenciaga are enhancing their brand narratives through immersive experiences and deep content storytelling in response to fragmented online communication [7] - These brands are leveraging social media to create cohesive content matrices that improve communication efficiency and meet consumer expectations for depth and sincerity [7] Men's Fashion Trends - The Pitti Uomo men's fashion exhibition highlighted the influence of cycling and active lifestyles on men's fashion, showcasing brands that emphasize lightness, functionality, and comfort [8] - Emerging brands are focusing on innovation and sustainability, reflecting a shift in design inspiration towards diverse athletic scenarios [8] Sunscreen Market - The sunscreen clothing market is experiencing rapid growth, projected to reach 95.8 billion yuan by 2026, despite issues like misleading UPF ratings and quality concerns [9] - As consumers become more discerning, brands must focus on genuine needs and improve product quality to succeed in a competitive landscape [9] Toy Industry - The toy industry is evolving with the rise of emotional consumption, as seen in the success of Labubu and the increasing interest in collectible blind boxes [10][11] - The market is becoming more concentrated, with leading companies like 52TOYS and TOPTOY accelerating their development, while the sustainability of industry hype remains in question [10][11] Footwear Trends - Barefoot shoes are gaining popularity as a niche category in the sports shoe market, aligning with the trend of returning to nature and healthy living [12] - Despite challenges like product homogeneity, future winners in this space will rely on technological development and community engagement to convert concepts into value [12] FIFA's Fashion Venture - FIFA is launching its own high-end fashion brand, FIFA1904, in collaboration with VFiles, aiming to expand its cultural influence and revenue streams [13] - This move reflects FIFA's strategy to diversify its commercial operations ahead of the 2030 World Cup, despite concerns over market positioning and identity compliance [13] Women's Sportswear - The sizing of women's sportswear is causing new body image anxieties, with a shortage of larger sizes in the domestic market [14] - Brands are encouraged to address diverse body types and provide more inclusive sizing options to meet the evolving consumer demands [14] Brand Developments - Non-Fungible Group appointed Victor Herrero as co-CEO, reflecting a strategic focus on brand transformation and supply chain management [15] - The new store opening for "Benlai" in Shanghai emphasizes sustainable fashion and community engagement through art installations and eco-friendly initiatives [16] Gender-Neutral Fashion - HOPE brand promotes gender fluidity through its "Style Before Gender" philosophy, focusing on timeless designs and practical aesthetics [25] - The brand's latest collection merges narrative and functionality, establishing itself as a benchmark in Swedish fashion [25]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rise of the潮玩 (trendy toy) industry in Shipaizhen, Dongguan, emphasizing the shift from being mere OEM factories for brands like Pop Mart to developing original IPs, reflecting a broader trend in the toy manufacturing sector in China [3][4][15]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Shipaizhen is a significant hub for潮玩 production, with over 400 toy manufacturers and a total output value of 132.2 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 12.3% year-on-year increase [3][4]. - Dongguan, known as the "world's factory," produces 1/4 of global anime derivatives, with Shipaizhen accounting for 50% of潮玩 products in Dongguan [9][10]. - The潮玩 industry in Shipaizhen has evolved from a focus on OEM production to a growing emphasis on original IP development, with the number of original IPs increasing from over 30 in 2021 to over 100 in 2024 [20][24]. Group 2: Company Dynamics - Many toy factory owners in Shipaizhen aspire to create their own original IPs, moving away from low-margin OEM work, which typically yields profits of only 3-10% [11][15]. - Pop Mart's collaboration with local factories has raised industry standards and introduced higher craftsmanship requirements, prompting factories to seek their own IPs for better profit margins [15][16]. - ToyCity, founded by a former OEM factory owner, has successfully developed around 20 original IPs, demonstrating the potential for local companies to transition from OEM to original content creation [18][19]. Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - The transition to original IP development is fraught with challenges, including high costs and the need for effective marketing strategies, as many companies lack experience in market promotion [29][30]. - The investment required for IP development can be substantial, with companies often needing to cultivate a loyal fan base to ensure profitability [31][33]. - Despite the difficulties, the potential for success in the潮玩 market drives companies to explore various paths for IP development, including licensing and content creation [33][34].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on undervalued downstream brands or OEM industries with low expectations and dividend attributes, indicating a positive investment outlook for these sectors [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need to identify high-potential companies that can generate quality profits, particularly in the new consumption sector, as the market approaches the mid-year reporting season [2]. - It highlights the importance of focusing on companies with strong brand power and those that can benefit from the ongoing expansion of the overseas market, particularly in the context of the new consumption narrative [2][20]. - The report also notes that various sectors, such as light manufacturing, textiles, and home appliances, are showing signs of stabilization or growth, suggesting potential investment opportunities [3][5][25]. Summary by Relevant Sections Light Manufacturing - New tobacco products are expected to grow steadily, with a clear expansion trend in the overseas vaping market and a positive outlook for the HNB industry [3][20]. - The home furnishings sector is stabilizing, with a focus on companies that can demonstrate resilience and growth potential [3][20]. - The paper industry is entering a demand peak in Q3, with significant price recovery potential [3][21]. - The toy industry continues to expand, with strong performance from leading companies like Pop Mart [3][21]. Textiles and Apparel - The apparel sector is experiencing weak consumer demand, but there are opportunities in unique and differentiated brands, especially in new retail formats [3][23]. - The export market faces uncertainties due to potential tariffs, which could impact pricing and demand [3][23]. Beauty and Personal Care - The beauty sector is advised to focus on leading companies with strong mid-year performance and those with significant potential for price recovery [3][24]. Home Appliances - Skyworth's acquisition of Philips' North American business is expected to enhance its market presence and product offerings in high-end segments [3][25]. - The TV market is experiencing price declines, but demand is anticipated to recover in Q3 [3][25][26]. Retail and Social Services - The retail sector is under pressure, but there are signs of improvement in certain areas, such as instant retail and dining services [3][27][28]. - The report notes that the tourism and restaurant sectors are maintaining high levels of activity, indicating a positive trend [3][27]. Overall Market Trends - The report suggests that the new consumption narrative is gaining traction, with a focus on companies that can deliver high-quality profits and those that are well-positioned for growth in the evolving market landscape [2][8].

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart is at a crossroads, experiencing explosive growth with its IP Labubu, which saw a revenue increase of 726.6% in 2024, accounting for 23.3% of total revenue. This has raised questions about whether the company is genuinely expanding production or intentionally controlling supply to maintain scarcity [1][15]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Labubu has been in high demand, leading to consumers queuing overnight and paying significant premiums for second-hand products. This popularity has resulted in stock shortages and delayed deliveries across multiple product lines [2][4]. - The company has faced criticism for potentially employing "hunger marketing" strategies, where limited supply is used to enhance perceived value and maintain market interest [3][4]. - Despite the apparent production capabilities of domestic factories, Pop Mart has not significantly increased production, suggesting a deliberate strategy to keep supply constrained [4][10]. Group 2: Production Challenges - The production of Labubu is not particularly complex, with many factories capable of producing it within 2 to 4 weeks. However, existing agreements with factories may limit the ability to rapidly scale production [8][9]. - Factors such as raw material shortages and technical requirements may also contribute to production limitations, impacting the ability to meet surging demand [9][10]. - Pop Mart's supply chain is under strain due to demand exceeding capacity, leading to a reassessment of production strategies and potential delays in new product launches [11][10]. Group 3: IP Strategy and Market Positioning - Pop Mart's revenue structure has evolved, with Labubu's series becoming a significant contributor, while other IPs have seen a decline in revenue share despite absolute growth [15][16]. - The company aims to balance the performance of various IPs to avoid over-reliance on a single product, which could pose risks to long-term stability and market expectations [16][17]. - The founder emphasizes the importance of a balanced approach in managing IPs, suggesting that while a hit product is beneficial, a diversified portfolio is crucial for sustainable growth [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart is facing a supply-demand imbalance, particularly with its Labubu IP, which is experiencing a significant revenue surge of 726.6% in 2024, accounting for 23.3% of total revenue [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for Labubu products has exceeded production capacity, leading to market shortages and consumer conflicts in stores [1] - Industry insiders suggest that Pop Mart may be employing "hunger marketing" strategies to maintain product scarcity and perceived value [1][2] - A representative from a toy factory indicated that many domestic manufacturers have the capability to scale production, but Pop Mart appears to intentionally limit supply to enhance market interest [2] Group 2: Company Response and Strategy - In response to the supply challenges, Pop Mart is actively working to expand production capacity and is considering delaying the launch of some new products [2] - The company aims to redistribute production capacity across existing product lines and initiate pre-sales in batches to better manage consumer access and curb secondary market speculation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the disparity between the high market prices of Labubu toys and the low wages of the workers involved in their production, exemplified by the story of Hu Meiyu, a worker who earns a meager income from her labor in the toy manufacturing process [8][11][24]. Group 1: Labubu Toy Market - Labubu toys, produced by Pop Mart, have gained immense popularity globally, with initial products fetching auction prices as high as 1.08 million yuan [8][11]. - The demand for Labubu has led to long queues at Pop Mart stores and even violent incidents among scalpers trying to acquire the toys [8][11]. - The secondary market for Labubu products has seen a significant price drop, with prices falling by approximately 50% during recent sales events [23]. Group 2: Worker Experience - Hu Meiyu, a 60-year-old worker, earns about 0.035 yuan per piece for trimming excess material from the Labubu toy faces, resulting in a daily income of around 50-60 yuan [10][11][24]. - The labor-intensive process involves multiple steps and workers, with Hu's role being just one of many in the production chain [16][19]. - Despite the low wages, Hu expresses pride in her work, noting that her output is often of higher quality than that of her peers [13]. Group 3: Production Process - The production of Labubu toys involves various stages, including molding, trimming, painting, and assembly, requiring the collaboration of numerous workers [15][19]. - In Dongguan, a major toy manufacturing hub, there are over 4,000 toy production companies, with many supplying to Pop Mart [16]. - The article describes the working conditions and pay disparities among different roles in the production process, highlighting the significant markup from production to retail [17][20].

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a significant surge in revenue from its IP Labubu, which increased by 726.6% in 2024, accounting for 23.3% of total revenue, raising questions about potential intentional supply constraints to maintain scarcity [1][2][15]. Revenue and Growth - In 2024, the THE MONSTERS series, which includes Labubu, generated a total revenue of 30.4 billion, marking a dramatic increase from 5.8% to 23.3% of the company's total revenue compared to 2023 [15]. - Other IPs have seen a decline in revenue share, although their absolute revenue has still increased, indicating a balanced growth strategy [15]. Supply Chain and Production Challenges - The company is facing supply shortages due to overwhelming demand for Labubu, leading to delayed shipments across multiple product lines [4][11]. - Industry insiders suggest that the production of Labubu is feasible, but the company may be intentionally controlling output to create a sense of scarcity and maintain market value [5][6][8]. Marketing Strategy - There are indications that the company employs "hunger marketing" tactics, where limited availability enhances consumer desire and perceived value [5][6][16]. - The company aims to balance the market demand across different IPs to avoid over-reliance on a single product, which could pose long-term risks [16]. Production Capacity and Future Plans - The company is actively working to expand production capacity and is considering delaying the launch of new products to better manage existing demand [12][14]. - A new project at a manufacturing facility is set to increase production capabilities significantly, indicating a strategic move to meet growing demand [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of three prominent Hong Kong-listed consumer companies, referred to as the "Hong Kong Three Sisters," highlighting their unique stories of success and the cultural significance behind their branding [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Background - Wang Ning, the founder of Pop Mart, received a 2 million yuan angel investment, which marked the beginning of his entrepreneurial journey [1]. - The "Hong Kong Three Sisters" consist of Pop Mart, Mixue, and Laopuhuangjin, each having their own unique growth stories and market presence [1][2]. - The narrative of these companies resonates with the public's fascination with grassroots success, showcasing how ordinary individuals can achieve extraordinary outcomes [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The consumer market in China is undergoing a transformation, with a growing emphasis on emotional value and brand storytelling, as seen in the rise of these companies [4][5]. - The article emphasizes that the success of these companies is not just about products but also about the emotional connection they create with consumers [4][22]. - The shift towards new consumption patterns is evident, as these companies adapt to changing consumer preferences and market demands [5][22]. Group 3: Key Milestones - In 2025, significant milestones for the "Hong Kong Three Sisters" include Pop Mart's listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the rapid increase in its market valuation [4][23]. - Mixue's expansion strategy led to a significant increase in its store count, particularly in lower-tier cities, which has been crucial for its growth [22]. - Laopuhuangjin's focus on high-end gold products and its rebranding efforts have positioned it as a leader in the luxury market [22][18]. Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - The companies faced various challenges, including market skepticism and operational hurdles, but they managed to pivot and find success through innovation and strategic decisions [13][16]. - The article highlights the importance of resilience and adaptability in the face of market fluctuations and consumer trends [23][22]. - The ongoing evolution of consumer preferences presents both challenges and opportunities for these companies as they navigate the competitive landscape [22][23].

Group 1: Consumption Policies and Market Trends - The "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" has effectively stimulated consumption as a core driver of economic growth in the first half of 2025 [1] - Emerging economic forms such as the trendy toy economy, tea beverage consumption, pet economy, outdoor economy, and silver-haired economy are rapidly rising, becoming new engines for market vitality and economic growth [1] Group 2: Trendy Toy Economy - The trendy toy economy is reshaping the offline commercial ecosystem, driven by emotional value and the healing economy, with a market value of approximately 600 billion yuan in 2023, expected to reach 1.101 trillion yuan by 2026, with a growth rate of over 20% [2] - Major brands like Pop Mart are achieving significant revenue growth, with Pop Mart's revenue projected to reach 13.04 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 106.9% [2][3] - The number of trendy toy-related enterprises in China has reached 22,300, with a notable increase in registrations since 2021, indicating a growing market [3] Group 3: Tea Beverage Consumption - The tea beverage industry is experiencing a transformation driven by product innovation and globalization, with several major brands successfully listing on stock exchanges in 2025 [4] - The market for tea beverages is increasingly focusing on health, cross-industry collaborations, and cultural connections, enhancing emotional ties with consumers [4][5] - Tea brands are actively expanding into lower-tier cities, with significant proportions of their stores located in third-tier and below cities, indicating a strategic focus on tapping into domestic demand [5][6] Group 4: Pet Economy - The pet economy is rapidly growing, with a market size of 592.8 billion yuan in 2023, expected to reach 1.15 trillion yuan by 2028, driven by individualization and the single economy [7] - The number of pet-related enterprises has surged, with over 4.5775 million existing companies, reflecting a strong entrepreneurial interest in the sector [7] - During the "618" shopping festival, pet-related sales saw significant growth, with many brands achieving record sales figures [8] Group 5: Outdoor Economy - The outdoor economy is emerging as a new consumption trend, with online consumption expected to reach 300 billion yuan in 2024, driven primarily by the 24 to 34 age group [11] - International outdoor brands are increasingly opening their first stores in China, indicating a growing interest in the outdoor market [11] - The integration of outdoor activities into modern lifestyles is reshaping commercial real estate, with a focus on creating immersive consumer experiences [12] Group 6: Silver-Haired Economy - The silver-haired economy is becoming a significant pillar of the consumption market, with projections indicating that the population aged 60 and above will reach 370 million by 2030 [13] - This sector is expanding beyond traditional elderly care services to encompass a full range of consumer needs, reflecting a shift towards a more quality-oriented consumption mindset among older adults [14] - The travel and care industry for the elderly is experiencing robust growth, with participation numbers expected to rise significantly by 2024 [13][14]