投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期货涨跌互现，农副产品涨幅居前 ——中信期货晨报20250624 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读 本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 资料来源：Wind 公开资料 中信期货研究所 | | | | 25, 804 Th 500 UR BA THE | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | | 日庚涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 | | | | 殷指 | 沪深300期货 | 3797.4 | 0.63% | 0.634 | 1.21% | -1.59% ...

Group 1 - The first Shaanxi Province Excellent Engineer Competition has been launched, themed "Qin Innovation Together, Forge the Future" [1] - The competition includes two tracks: the Challenge Competition and the Sci-Tech Innovation Competition, focusing on eight key industries [1] - The Challenge Competition aims to gather urgent technical issues from enterprises, universities, and research institutions related to traditional industries and emerging sectors [1] Group 2 - The Sci-Tech Innovation Competition allows engineers or teams to submit projects based on their independent research and technological achievements [1] - The competition will have a total of three rounds: preliminary in mid-August, semi-finals in October, and finals in November [1] - Awards include gold, silver, bronze, and merit awards, with monetary rewards for winners and priority recommendations for national awards [2]

Group 1 - Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) is enhancing rural credit system construction and focusing on high-quality financial development for agriculture, contributing to agricultural harvest and farmers' income [1] - Since the beginning of the year, PSBC has deployed financial support for spring farming, issuing 320 loans totaling 33.24 million yuan for spring farming preparations [1] - From April onwards, PSBC has launched initiatives to support summer grain procurement, issuing a total of 592 million yuan in grain procurement loans to meet the short-term funding needs of farmers [1] Group 2 - Binzhou Guosheng Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd., a prominent grain producer in Binzhou, urgently sought funding from PSBC for wheat procurement and agricultural machinery operations [2] - PSBC simplified the loan process, providing a 4 million yuan pure credit industry loan to the company within three days, addressing the financing challenges faced by the client [2] - PSBC remains committed to serving the agricultural sector, focusing on grain production and enhancing credit support for agricultural entities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to continue its oscillating trend in the upcoming week due to weak market sentiment and technical indicators suggesting a downward trend [1][2]. Market Overview - The liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index was 1.23, indicating current market liquidity is 1.23 times higher than the average level over the past year [2]. - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF options increased to 1.06, reflecting a growing caution among investors regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2]. - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A were 0.81% and 1.37%, respectively, indicating a decrease in trading activity [2]. Macroeconomic Factors - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates experienced slight fluctuations, with weekly changes of -0.03% and 0.14%, respectively [2]. - Recent economic data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in May, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.8% year-on-year, and retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% [2]. - Fixed asset investment for the first five months of the year rose by 3.7% year-on-year, with high-tech manufacturing and digital economy sectors showing significant growth [2]. Technical Analysis - The Wind All A index broke below the SAR point on June 19, indicating a bearish trend [2]. - The market score based on the moving average strength index is currently at 102, which is at the 39.7% percentile since 2021 [2]. - The sentiment model scored 1 out of 5, indicating weak market sentiment, while the trend model signal is positive and the weighted model signal is negative [2]. Market Performance - For the week of June 16-20, the SSE 50 index fell by 0.1%, the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.45%, the CSI 500 index dropped by 1.75%, and the ChiNext index declined by 1.66% [3]. - The overall market PE (TTM) stands at 19.2 times, which is at the 52.3% percentile since 2005 [3]. Factor Observations - The crowding degree for small-cap factors has decreased, with a current score of 0.79 for small-cap factors, -0.14 for low valuation factors, -0.11 for high profitability factors, and 0.00 for high profitability growth factors [3]. - The industry crowding degree is relatively high for sectors such as comprehensive, environmental protection, machinery equipment, banking, and non-ferrous metals, with notable increases in banking and medical biotechnology sectors [3].

Group 1 - The decline in foot traffic at large commercial complexes, which were once popular, is attributed to the emergence of new shopping centers and changing consumer preferences towards online shopping [1][3] - Older commercial complexes are facing challenges such as outdated facilities, slow management updates, and low rates of new brand entries, making it difficult to compete with newly opened malls [3] - To attract popular brands and increase foot traffic, older malls should consider offering incentives to tenants, such as rent reductions, to enhance sales per square meter [3] Group 2 - Specific examples of declining foot traffic include the Dinghao Plaza in Jinan, where many shops, especially restaurants, have closed, leading to a stark contrast in customer presence on different floors [1] - The overall trend indicates that both new and old shopping malls are experiencing a decrease in overall revenue, with older malls being more significantly affected [3] - The need for improved environment, atmosphere, and service in commercial complexes is emphasized as a way to retain customers and boost revenue from dining and entertainment [3]

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月23日 金融工程日报 沪指午后拉升，稳定币概念再度大涨、油气股反复活跃 市场表现：今日(20250623) 大部分指数处于上涨状态，规模指数中中证 2000 指数表现较好，板块指数中北证 50 指数表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 价 值指数表现较好。综合金融、综合、计算机、国防军工、煤炭行业表现较好， 食品饮料、家电、钢铁、通信、汽车行业表现较差。稳定币、数字货币、中 日韩自贸区、跨境支付、第三方支付等概念表现较好，白酒、品牌龙头、光 模块(CPO)、啤酒、高速公路精选等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：今日收盘时有 83 只股票涨停，有 3 只股票跌停。昨日涨停股票 今日高开高走，收盘收益为 3.97%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为 1.26%。 今日封板率 77%，较前日提升 1%，连板率 38%，较前日提升 15%。 市场资金流向：截至 20250620 两融余额为 18125 亿元，其中融资余额 18009 亿元，融券余额 115 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.3%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 7.8%。 折溢价：20250620 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是在线消费 ...

Market Liquidity Overview - R007 increased from 1.5811% to 1.591%, a rise of 0.99 basis points, while DR007 decreased from 1.502% to 1.4941%, a drop of 0.79 basis points. The spread between R007 and DR007 widened by 1.78 basis points [9][11] - The net outflow of funds this week was 320.904 billion, an increase of 391.818 billion from the previous week. Fund supply was 144.097 billion, and fund demand was 465.001 billion [11][12] Industry Sector Liquidity Tracking - Most sectors in the CITIC first-level industry recorded declines, with the banking sector showing the strongest performance, up 3.13%. The pharmaceutical and textile sectors led the declines, falling 4.16% and 4.10% respectively [16][17] - The pharmaceutical industry had the highest overall congestion score, indicating significant market activity and potential risk [27][28] Style Sector Liquidity Tracking - The consumer style index experienced the largest decline of 3.90%, while the financial style saw a slight increase of 0.05%, making it the only sector with positive returns [32][33] - The growth style maintained the highest daily trading volume share at 52.43%, significantly ahead of other styles, and also had the highest turnover rate at 2.33% [30][32]

[Table_Title] 每日复盘 证券研究报告 2025 年 06 月 23 日 2025 年 6 月 23 日市场全天低开高走，稳定币概念股再度 活跃 报告要点： 2025 年 6 月 23 日市场全天低开高走，稳定币概念股再度活跃。上证指 数上涨 0.65%，深证成指上涨 0.43%，创业板指上涨 0.39%。市场成交额 11224.57 亿元，较上一交易日增加 548.70 亿元。全市场 4501 只个股上涨， 862 只个股下跌。 风格上看，各指数涨跌幅排序为：成长>金融>周期>稳定>消费>0；小盘 成长>大盘价值>小盘价值>中盘价值>中盘成长>大盘成长；中证全指表现优 于基金重仓。 分行业看，30 个中信一级行业普遍上涨；表现相对靠前的是：综合金融 （5.03%），综合（3.22%），计算机（2.21%）；表现相对靠后的是：食品饮料 （-0.78%），家电（-0.43%），钢铁（0.02%）。概念板块方面，多数概念板块 上涨，昨日连板、昨日连板_含一字、数字货币等大幅上涨；低碳冶金、白 酒、啤酒等板块走低。 资金筹码方面，主力资金 6 月 23 日净流入 86.96 亿元。其中超大单净流 入 9 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 从品类角度看，在2025年"618"大促期间综合电商平台热门品类中，家用电器、美容护肤、洗护清洁销售 额占比分别为12.9%/5.0%/2.7%。 阿里巴巴：品牌表现良好，用户粘性持续提升 商品方面，2025年"618"大促期间，453个品牌在天猫"618"成交破亿元（截至6月18日24点），同比去年增 长24%，其中苹果、美的、海尔、小米等成交突破10亿，天猫平台上品牌表现突出；同时国补拉动作用显 著，家电家装、3C数码等行业整体成交同比双位数增长，参加国补的品类成交总额较2024年"双十一"增长 116%。消费者方面，2025年天猫"618"来访用户及活跃度均有提升，全周期购买用户实现双位数增长，其 中高净值88VIP会员突破5000万，品牌会员数同比增长15%。 京东集团：多业态拉动用户增长，外卖日单量突破2500万单 2025年"618"大促期间（2025年5月30日20:00至6月18日23:59），京东整体下单用户数同比增长超过 100%，京东零售线上业务、线下业态及京东外卖整体单量超过22亿单。分品类来看，京东平台3C、家电 品类规模、增速均为行业第一，服饰美妆、日 ...

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