通胀阴云笼罩下的华尔街暗流涌动，城堡投资创始人肯·格里芬的一席话让我这个量化投资者陷入了深思。这位金融巨鳄对美国 通胀局势的判断，与我十年来观察到的市场规律不谋而合——表面数据往往掩盖着更深层的真相。 前三次反弹时，"主导动能"显示的是普通的回补行为（蓝色柱体），但缺乏"机构库存"（橙色柱体）的配合。这说明什么？很可 能是散户的自发补仓行为。而第四次反弹时，"回补"行为与持续的"机构库存"同时出现，这才是真正的机构震仓信号。 格里芬指出美国通胀率虽从9%降至2.9%，但实际仍具粘性。这让我联想到股市中的一个奇特现象：牛市中的暴跌往往比熊市更 剧烈。为何会出现这种反直觉的现象？这与格里芬揭示的通胀表象何其相似——市场总是在制造错觉。 人类天生厌恶损失的心理特征，在牛市中表现得淋漓尽致。记得2020年疫情期间的市场波动，多少人因为恐惧而在底部割肉？我 自己也曾犯过这样的错误。直到我开始用数据说话，才发现牛市中的暴跌往往暗藏玄机。 主力资金在牛市中惯用两种手法：一种是真出清，利用市场流动性好的特点快速切换仓位；另一种则是假摔洗盘，通过剧烈震荡 吓退跟风盘。这两种情况在表面走势上几乎一模一样，但背后的资金意图却截然不 ...

上实资本2025年度投资人大会中，上实集团与国泰海通完成签约，共同发起沪港战略产业基石投资基 金。该基金的设立旨在为企业上市的"最后一公里"提供融资支持，也是沪港携手深入服务上海战略产业 发展的重要举措。随着基石基金的启动，上实资本的基金矩阵布局进一步扩容，也将成为国内为数不多 的覆盖股权投资全阶段的机构。（21世纪经济报道） ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is characterized by irrational elements, which contribute to its appeal, and understanding this can help investors adjust their mindset and avoid negative feelings towards market fluctuations [1]. Group 1: Market Insights - Li Bei from Banxia Investment discussed the concepts of "old stocks" and "small stocks," emphasizing that market adjustments are necessary for a better understanding of its dynamics [1]. - The current market structure and style are not aligned with Li Bei's expertise, yet she has managed to outperform the CSI 300 index this year [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Li Bei has chosen to indirectly participate in the technology boom by buying CSI 500 index futures [1]. - Lin Yuan expressed that holding stocks from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board is a passive strategy due to the market capitalization requirements for new stock subscriptions [1]. - Lin Yuan admitted to experiencing significant stress from investing in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, indicating regret over his decisions and sleepless nights due to market volatility [1].

Group 1: Precious Metals Prices - International platinum prices surged, with London gold rising 0.29% to $3759.895 per ounce, London silver increasing 2.46% to $45.994 per ounce, marking a new high since May 2011, international palladium up 1.7% to $1305.3 per ounce, and international platinum up 3.61% to $1611.52 per ounce [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index for August showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, consistent with previous values, while the overall PCE price index rose 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7% compared to 2.6% previously [2][4] - Personal income in August grew by $95.7 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, while personal consumption expenditure rose by $129.2 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, both exceeding prior expectations by 0.1 percentage points [4] Group 3: Consumer Confidence - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. fell to 55.1 in September, a decrease of about 5% from August, with the current economic conditions index dropping from 61.7 to 60.4, and the consumer expectations index falling from 55.9 to 51.7 [5] - Nearly 70% of U.S. consumers expect inflation to exceed income growth in the coming year, while about 65% anticipate an increase in unemployment rates [5] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman emphasized the need for decisive and preemptive interest rate cuts to address worsening labor market issues [7][8] - Recent data indicates a significant increase in labor market vulnerability, prompting calls for immediate action to prevent further deterioration [8] - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts has increased, with strong economic data complicating the outlook for potential rate reductions [10] Group 5: Gold Price Forecasts - Several institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with JPMorgan predicting spot gold prices could exceed $4000 per ounce by Q1 2026, and Goldman Sachs maintaining a target of $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025 [11] - The potential impact of U.S. government shutdown risks and ongoing global central bank gold purchases are expected to support gold's long-term investment appeal [11]

Core Viewpoint - Tether is seeking significant external funding, potentially reaching a valuation of $500 billion, which would solidify its position as one of the most valuable private companies globally [3][4]. Group 1: Investment Details - SoftBank and Ark Investment Management are in early discussions to invest in Tether, marking Tether's largest external financing attempt to date [3][4]. - Tether plans to raise between $15 billion to $20 billion by selling approximately 3% of its shares through a private placement [3][4]. Group 2: Company Background - Tether's primary product is USDT, a digital asset pegged to the US dollar, allowing users to transfer funds outside traditional banking systems [4]. - Tether has accumulated significant wealth by investing its reserve funds in cash-like assets, such as US Treasury bonds, and earning interest [4]. Group 3: Leadership and Valuation Impact - Tether is led by CEO Paolo Ardoino and co-founder Giancarlo Devasini, who is also the largest shareholder [5]. - If Tether's valuation reaches $500 billion, Devasini's stake could be valued at approximately $224 billion [5]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Ark Investment Management has previously invested in stablecoins, including Tether's main competitor, Circle Internet Group, which has a market cap of around $74 billion [5]. - Tether's market cap for user-held tokens is approximately $173.5 billion, significantly higher than Circle's [5].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Shango Holdings has experienced a significant decline of 14.26% despite receiving a cumulative net buy of HKD 10.17 billion from southbound funds over three consecutive days [2] Group 1: Trading Activity - On September 26, the total trading volume of active stocks through the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached HKD 629.00 billion, with a net buying amount of HKD 44.50 billion [2] - Shango Holdings recorded a trading amount of HKD 29.92 billion through the Hong Kong Stock Connect on September 26, with a net buying amount of HKD 1.30 billion [2] - The stock has seen a cumulative net buying amount of HKD 10.17 billion over the last three days [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to invest 30 million RMB in a private equity fund named "Future Industry Fund," which focuses on early and growth-stage projects in the nuclear fusion industry [1] Investment Details - The company will act as a limited partner alongside Hefei Comprehensive Science Center Energy Research Institute and other partners [1] - The investment amount of 30 million RMB represents 60% of the partnership's share [1] - The total raised capital for the fund is 50 million RMB [1] Fund Management - The fund is established by general partner Xingfu Investment Management Co., Ltd. and other limited partners [1] Financial Impact - This investment does not constitute a related party transaction or a major asset restructuring [1] - The funding source is the company's own funds, and it will not significantly impact the company's financial and operational status [1]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Future Industry Fund plans to invest in six sub-funds, focusing on various innovative sectors [1] - The fund has a total capital of 10 billion yuan, fully funded by the Shanghai municipal government, aimed at fostering disruptive innovation and early-stage investments in cutting-edge technologies [3] - The fund's strategy emphasizes early and small investments in hard technology, positioning itself as a patient and strategic capital partner for co-investing and incubating frontier technologies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The investment in future industries is characterized by high uncertainty, and the key to overcoming challenges lies in the collaboration of state-owned capital, market-oriented institutions, and industrial capital to identify genuine opportunities in cutting-edge fields such as quantum technology, AI, and semiconductors [2][3][21]. Group 1: Challenges in Future Industry Investment - The main challenges in future industry investment include the professional judgment of technology, the tolerance for long investment cycles, and the cross-disciplinary capabilities of talent teams [3][4][12]. - State-owned capital plays a crucial role as "patient capital" and in building industrial ecosystems, while market-oriented institutions focus on early-stage investments to uncover technological potential [4][6]. - The investment cycle for early-stage projects can extend up to 7 to 10 years, requiring a high tolerance for risk and a long-term vision [7][8]. Group 2: Strategies for Overcoming Challenges - Investment institutions should enhance their capabilities by collaborating with top general partners (GPs) and nurturing local emerging investment firms [6][7]. - The integration of traditional industries with future industries through mergers and acquisitions is becoming a new growth driver, allowing for collaborative development [4][15]. - The need for investment teams to include technology experts who understand the nuances of future industries is emphasized to improve investment logic and decision-making [9][10][11]. Group 3: Relationship Between Traditional and Future Industries - Traditional industries are seen as stable but face slow growth, while future industries, though uncertain, hold significant growth potential [14][15]. - Mergers and acquisitions are highlighted as a key method for integrating emerging assets into traditional frameworks, facilitating synergy and value creation [18][21]. - The focus on innovation and upgrading within traditional sectors is essential for attracting investment and fostering sustainable growth [15][16]. Group 4: Conclusion and Future Outlook - The investment landscape for future industries is evolving into a systemic ecological competition, where the ability to secure long-term funding, invest in top projects, and achieve ideal returns remains a significant challenge for most GPs [20][21]. - The collaboration of state-owned capital, market-oriented VC/PE, and industrial capital is crucial for accelerating commercialization and linking traditional industries with technological innovation [21].

天眼查App显示，近日，佛山市富有投资有限公司成立，法定代表人为胡远想，注册资本500万人民 币，经营范围为一般项目：以自有资金从事投资活动；五金产品零售；五金产品批发；机械设备销售； 机械零件、零部件加工；通用零部件制造；通用设备制造（不含特种设备制造）；模具制造；汽车零部 件及配件制造；金属材料制造；金属制品销售；有色金属合金销售；国内贸易代理。（除依法须经批准 的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活动）。 ...