1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of urea this week is a fluctuating decline. The short - term driving force is neutral, with the intraday price approaching the upper limit of valuation during the week, and spot trading weakening, leading to a short - term weak correction. Near the delivery of the 01 contract, the increase in warehouse receipts is obvious, and it is expected that the futures price will fluctuate under pressure. The support mainly comes from continuous purchases in the Northeast. The fundamental driving force of urea is currently neutral, and the continuous reduction of explicit inventory supports the price. In the medium - term, the 01 contract has strong fundamental pressure at 1700 yuan/ton, and the lower support is expected to be between 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation End: Price and Spread - The report presents multiple charts showing urea basis, monthly spreads, and warehouse receipts, as well as domestic and international spot prices, including data from 2018 - 2025, which can help analyze price trends and market relationships [5][9][15][19] 3.2 Domestic Supply 3.2.1 Capacity - In 2025, the expansion pattern of urea production capacity continues. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 3920,000 tons, and in 2025, new production capacity is also being added. For example, Shaanxi Shanhua completed capacity replacement in January 2025, with a net increase of 400,000 tons [23]. 3.2.2 Production Plan - Many urea production enterprises have maintenance plans, including routine maintenance and loss - based maintenance. For example, Yangmei Fengxi Fertilizer Industry Co., Ltd. carried out routine maintenance from November 10 - 17, 2025 [25]. 3.2.3 Output - The production profit is around the break - even line, and the daily output of urea remains at a high level. The charts show the daily output, capacity utilization rate, and output of coal - based and gas - based urea from 2018 - 2025 [26][27]. 3.2.4 Cost - Raw material prices are stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has increased. The report provides cost calculations for Shanxi's fixed - bed factories and shows the complete cost trends of urea's fluidized - bed, fixed - bed, and natural - gas production processes from 2018 - 2025 [29]. 3.2.5 Profit - The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. The report shows the cash - flow profit and production profit of different production processes from 2018 - 2025 [35][36]. 3.2.6 Net Import (Export) - During the reserve period, export policies are tightened. The report provides monthly net import (export) data from 2018 - 2025 (E), showing that exports have increased significantly in 2025 [41]. 3.3 Domestic Demand 3.3.1 Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand shows seasonal strengthening. Different regions and crops have different fertilizer - using seasons. Also, the construction of high - standard farmland has increased the demand for urea from corn [47][50]. 3.3.2 Industrial Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: The report shows the production cost, inventory, production profit, and capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers from 2019 - 2025 [54][55][56]. - **Melamine**: The report presents the production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine from 2018 - 2025 [57][58][60]. - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand for panels from the real estate sector has limited support, but panel exports are resilient. The report provides data on panel export volume, real - estate completion area, and construction area from 2020 - 2025 [62][63]. 3.4 Inventory - The inventory of urea production enterprises has increased. As of December 3, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1,290,500 tons, a decrease of 73,400 tons from the previous week. As of December 4, 2025 (week 49), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 105,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous week [65][68]. 3.5 International Urea - The report shows the FOB prices of large - granular urea in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as the CFR price of large - granular urea in Brazil from 2018 - 2025, which can help analyze the international urea market [71][72][73]

贸易商上头的原因其实无外乎因为缺货，一铵、二铵企业自身压力较大，受限价限制着，加之上游原料 涨价，下游则不接受高价，多面夹击使得一铵、二铵企业要么不愿报价，要么就维持限价，企业多不接 单，前期待发尚未全部发完，原料硫磺等库存已不多，后续不得不采购高价原料，因此企业会想办法慢 点消耗原料库存，部分企业仍在检修中，一定程度上缓解供应压力。 需求方面暂时集中在工业方面，业内喜好用64%二铵，但因缺货，55%粉铵和57%二铵等价格也在不断 上行，不过近期多集中在贸易商层面上，高价采购就要抓紧背靠背卖出去，趁着市场缺货，下游规模型 复合肥企业会分批次采购，但对于前期未采购的小厂，近期确实在抓狂，硬性需求下，厂家会适当采 购，量都不大，二铵企业放货暂时较少，工业需求急促，就不得不采购高价二铵，农业需求尚早，后期 还要考虑基层能否接受这么高的价格，接受的可能性应不大。 综上，供需及近日原料政策变化都已考虑，剩下的就是磷矿石的行情，冬季限采期，价位应不会有大幅 变化，液氨价格虽然不高，但对一铵、二铵成本影响不太大，后期一铵、二铵要面临的挑战还很多，接 下来还要面对农业方面是否接受涨价后的磷酸铵，政策、原料、供需多方压力之下， ...

（来源：中肥化肥网） 单从国内尿素企业的总设计产能上来看，截至目前较去年增加大概550万吨，不过实物产量上增加的尚 不明显，因新项目投产时间基本是从二季度到近期，那也就意味着明年尿素市场将面临严峻的考验，另 外还有部分新产能正在建设中，据不完全统计或不包含后期变数较大的项目，基本确定在建的尿素新产 能差不多还有400多万吨，（另有存在变数或有投产预期而尚未建设的产能）；不管是哪种情况，都说 明本就过剩的尿素市场将雪上加霜。 但为何尿素市场还没迎来大洗牌，关键应在于今年尿素的出口表现佳，前10个月尿素的出口总量401万 吨，已然带走了部分国内新增产能给市场造成的供应压力；其次新产能释放后的实物产量影响尚可承 受。所以说考验在明年，一是出口表现，即政策走向，二是新增产能释放的情况。但实际也不能说尿素 市场完全没洗牌，如山西及河南地区少数企业在技改，再比如大颗粒项目的投产，一定程度上缓解了企 业的成本压力，只是程度尚且不太明显。 近期尿素整体行情表现较佳，大小颗粒报价均有上涨，尤其是大颗粒行情要优于小颗粒，据中肥网了解 统计截至周五苏皖地区小颗粒尿素主流出厂报价1650-1730元/吨左右，大颗粒主流出厂报价涨至1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese fertilizer industry has achieved significant reduction and efficiency improvements over the past decade, becoming a key example of sustainable agricultural transformation globally. Since the launch of the "Zero Growth Action for Fertilizer Use" in 2015, the national fertilizer application has decreased for nine consecutive years, from 60.23 million tons to 49.88 million tons, a reduction of 17.2% [1][13][35]. Group 1: Industry Transformation and Achievements - The fertilizer application rate for the three major grain crops has increased from 35% to 42.6%, indicating more scientific and precise fertilization methods [1][13]. - The total grain production in China has remained stable at over 1.3 trillion jin since 2015, with a projected first-time increase to over 1.4 trillion jin in 2024, further ensuring food security [1][13]. - The actions taken have cumulatively avoided approximately 126 million tons of fertilizer application from 2015 to 2024 [1][35]. Group 2: Policy and Market Mechanisms - The transformation of the fertilizer industry is a result of multiple policies and market mechanisms working in synergy, involving technological innovation, management optimization, and production structure adjustments [1][12]. - The "dual carbon" goals of the state are driving the fertilizer industry towards a green and low-carbon direction, facing complex challenges in balancing food security, environmental protection, and economic benefits [1][12]. Group 3: Global Context and Future Outlook - The process reflects not only domestic agricultural modernization but also provides reference value for global agricultural sustainable development [2]. - The fertilizer industry must explore more efficient and environmentally friendly development paths to support the dual goals of food security and ecological protection [2].

巴西媒体12月2日综合报道，中巴两国农业"单向贸易"格局开始发生变化。中国是巴农产品的最大 买家，同时来自中国的产品也逐渐进入巴市场。截至10月，巴西自中国进口的农产品相关商品达61亿美 元，比2024年同期增长24%。变化最显著的是化肥供应，根据巴外贸秘书处数据，今年中国以977万吨 的出口量首次超过俄罗斯的972万吨，成为巴西最大化肥供应国。中国对巴西的化肥出口增速也明显加 快，今年前十月同比增加51%。中国主要向巴西出口硫酸铵（氮肥），俄罗斯则是巴西氯化钾（钾肥） 的重要战略供应国，两国合计占巴西化肥进口量的一半。今年前十个月，巴化肥进口总量达到3830万 吨，同比增长4.6%；进口额达132亿美元，同比增长16%。按进口量排名，巴西前五大化肥供应国依次 为中国、俄罗斯、加拿大、摩洛哥和埃及。 （原标题：中国超越俄罗斯成为巴西最大化肥供应国） ...

证券之星消息，截至2025年12月5日收盘，亚钾国际(000893)报收于47.59元，上涨3.03%，换手率 1.32%，成交量10.7万手，成交额5.06亿元。 12月5日的资金流向数据方面，主力资金净流入524.04万元，占总成交额1.04%，游资资金净流出891.88 万元，占总成交额1.76%，散户资金净流入367.83万元，占总成交额0.73%。 近5日资金流向一览见下表： | | | | | 日期 收盘价 涨跌幅 主力净流入 主力净占比 游资净点比 游资净占比 散户净占比 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-12-05 | 47.59 | 3.03% | 524.04万 | 1.04% | -891.88万 | -1.76% | 367.83万 | 0.73% | | 2025-12-04 | 46.19 | -0.77% | 795.85万 | 2.50% | 936.81万 | 2.95% | -1732.67万 | -5.45% | | 2025-12-03 | 46.55 | 4 ...

需求回升，企业库存延续去化 尿素月报 2025/12/05 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 刘洁文（能源化工组） 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 月度评估及策略推荐 月度总结 | 行情回顾 | 11月市场延续震荡上行为主，现货上涨修复基差，市场储备需求以及复合肥需求的季节性走高带来整体需求的小幅好转，企 | | --- | --- | | | 业库存高位持续去化，尿素整体估值依旧偏低，供需好转带来价格的走高，下方支撑依旧存在。 | | 基本面 | 供应  11月份国内尿素产量600万吨，环比增12.9万吨，同比增42.7万吨，处于高位。  11月储备需求以及复合肥开工的季节性走高，尿素需求边际好转。 | | |  随着冬季气头装置停车，后续整体企业开工以季节性回落为主。 | | | 需求  11月国内复合肥产量438万吨，环比增76万吨，同比处于高位。 | | |  后续需求关注淡储以及出口需求变化。 | | |  随着 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 弱势回调 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 5 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素高开低走，日内震荡下跌。尿素现货价格小幅上涨，待发支撑 下，报价依然坚挺。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价范围多在 1630-1700 元/吨，河南工厂报价偏低端，其他地方工厂成交价略有上移。日产 回落后，压力有缓解，但目前肥易通数据显示，依然在 19 万吨以上徘徊。后续 随着西南地区装置的不断停车，将继续降低产量。需求端继续走强，本期复合 肥工厂开工负荷提升 3.47%，冬储肥生产阶段，厂内成品库存开始累积增加， 终端备肥相对顺畅，工厂将继续提升开工负荷，支撑原料端价格。其他工业需 求同样稳中有增，尚且未拖累尿素需求。储备型需求及复合肥开工率增加带来 的需求增量，促使库存进一步去化，预计后续随着气头装置的停产限产，库存 将依然表现为流畅去化。综合来看，近期限气预期、宏观提振及出口传闻，冬 储需求均支撑尿素价格，盘面下方有支撑，临近移仓换月，谨慎多空，关注周 末收单情况。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1696 元/吨开盘, 高开低走，日内震荡下跌， 最终收于 1673 元/吨，收成一 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Heyou Chemical Co., Ltd. has successfully navigated 55 years of challenges and transformations, evolving from a small nitrogen fertilizer enterprise to a comprehensive chemical company, while actively responding to national calls and embracing social responsibilities [3][4][22]. Group 1: Company History and Transformation - Founded in 1970 as a local state-owned fertilizer plant, the company has undergone three significant reforms, transitioning from survival to growth without experiencing bankruptcy [4][5]. - The first reform involved shifting from a planned economy to a market economy, where the company adopted a proactive development strategy to improve production and market presence [5][6]. - The second reform marked the transformation from a state-owned enterprise to a limited company, establishing a modern corporate structure that revitalized the business [6][7]. - The third reform transitioned to a shareholding system, fundamentally changing the company's development philosophy and enhancing its market competitiveness [7][8]. Group 2: Green Transformation and Technological Advancements - The company has committed to green development, implementing various projects aimed at energy conservation and environmental protection, including a 200,000 tons/year ammonia energy-saving and emission-reduction upgrade project [10][11]. - Notable technological advancements include the development of low-temperature, low-pressure ammonia synthesis technology, breaking a 30-year foreign monopoly and significantly reducing energy consumption and emissions [10][11]. - The company has achieved impressive results, such as reducing ammonia synthesis system pressure from 31.2 MPa to below 12.7 MPa and cutting CO2 emissions by approximately 11.6 million tons annually [11][14]. Group 3: Social Responsibility and Employee Welfare - Heyou Chemical emphasizes social responsibility, prioritizing community welfare and environmental sustainability while ensuring stable growth and profitability [22][23]. - The company has implemented various employee welfare programs, including skill training, insurance systems, and financial assistance for families in need, ensuring that employees benefit from the company's success [24][23]. - The commitment to safety and quality has earned the company numerous accolades, reinforcing its reputation as a trustworthy partner in the industry [23][24].

Group 1 - The national production material market prices remained stable from November 24 to 30, showing little change compared to the previous week [1] - Basic chemical raw material prices generally increased, with sulfuric acid, methanol, and soda ash rising by 2.6%, 0.9%, and 0.1% respectively, while polypropylene decreased by 0.7% [2] - Steel prices saw slight increases, with rebar, high-speed wire, and hot-rolled strip steel priced at 3349 yuan, 3535 yuan, and 3493 yuan per ton, rising by 0.4%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively [2] Group 2 - Fertilizer prices remained stable with a slight increase, as urea prices were flat compared to the previous week, while compound fertilizer rose by 0.3% [3] - Non-ferrous metal prices experienced minor fluctuations, with zinc and copper increasing by 0.3% and 0.2%, while aluminum decreased by 0.4% [4] - Rubber prices saw a slight decline, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber dropping by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively [5] Group 3 - Coal prices experienced a slight decrease, with thermal coal and coking coal priced at 789 yuan and 1069 yuan per ton, declining by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively, while smokeless lump coal increased by 0.1% [5] - Wholesale prices of finished oil products slightly decreased, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline dropping by 0.6%, 0.6%, and 0.5% respectively [6]