地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 28 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 1 月 28 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨多跌少，沪铝涨近 6%，集运欧线涨超 4%，沥青涨近 4%，铸造铝合金、沪金、氧化铝涨 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：情绪扰动，偏强运行 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 28 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素日内冲高回落，整体偏强。现货行情点燃，部分工厂出现停售现 象。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价范围多在 1690-1740 元/ 吨。基本面来看，2 月份初依然有复产气头装置，目前暂无检修安排，上游装 置提供尿素产量充裕，日产已接近 20.5 万吨附近。天气温暖，农需启动节奏同 比偏快，本期复合肥工厂开工继续增加，目前已同比往年偏高，主要今年过年 时间略晚，工厂放假时间未到，同时为了保障春耕，开工连续居高，但受到磷 钾肥成本支撑下，复合肥价格拉锯，下游拿货不足，市场价格倒挂，不排除利 润挤压后的降负荷，工厂缺乏追高情绪，板厂等工业下游逐渐放假中。库存本 期虽继续去化，但变动量极低，随着上游产量的增加，上下游产销基本平衡， 但农需逐渐启动，库存少许去化。今日市场出口消息传言影响盘面上冲，但日 内情绪稳定小幅下滑，目前上下游紧平衡，农需启动中，盘面整体情绪偏强为 主，关注下游放假进度。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1795 元/吨开盘, 日内冲高回落，整体偏强。 最终 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hong Sifang (603395) is focusing on its core business and aims to actively promote mergers and acquisitions through both internal development and external expansion in line with domestic agricultural development and fertilizer industry trends [1] Group 1 - The company will strictly adhere to information disclosure rules for any related plans in the future [1] - Relevant information will be disclosed through designated information disclosure media [1]

Group 1 - The company, Luzhou Laojiao, forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 25 million to 35 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 54.1% to 67.22% [1] - The basic earnings per share are expected to be between 0.016 yuan and 0.022 yuan [1] - The primary reason for the decline in operating performance compared to the previous year is the significant drop in the price of the company's main product, urea, leading to a substantial decrease in profits year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The industry is witnessing a significant shift in battery technology, with semi-solid state batteries expected to be equipped in multiple new vehicles this year, indicating a year of iteration for power battery technology [1]

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao has announced its annual performance forecast, expecting a significant decline in net profit for 2025 due to a sharp drop in urea prices compared to the previous year [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 25 million to 35 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 54.10% to 67.22% [1] - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between -50 million and -40 million yuan for 2025 [1] Market Conditions - The primary reason for the decline in the company's operating performance is the substantial decrease in the price of its main product, urea, compared to the same period last year [1]

Group 1 - Zhonghua Fertilizer (00297) saw a stock increase of over 4%, specifically a rise of 4.57%, reaching HKD 1.83, with a trading volume of HKD 85.3784 million [1] - The company announced a meeting on January 27 to ensure the supply and price stability of potash fertilizer, particularly for the critical spring farming period in 2026 [1] - The meeting was organized under the guidance of relevant national departments and involved key potash fertilizer suppliers and producers, aiming to establish annual long-term agreements to stabilize supply and demand relationships [1] Group 2 - Representatives from 11 key potash fertilizer supply companies expressed their commitment to actively sell and meet downstream demand during the meeting [1] - The event facilitated direct negotiations between supply and demand parties, leading to clear intentions for annual long-term agreements [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhonghua Fertilizer (00297) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at 1.83 HKD with a transaction volume of 85.38 million HKD, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Zhonghua Fertilizer is actively participating in ensuring the supply and price stability of potash fertilizers, particularly for the critical spring farming period in 2026 [1] - A potash supply and demand matching meeting was organized on January 27, involving key potash supply enterprises and compound fertilizer producers, aimed at establishing annual long-term agreements to stabilize supply and demand relationships [1] - Representatives from 11 key potash supply enterprises expressed their commitment to actively sell and meet downstream demand during the meeting [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent urea market has shown an upward trend, with improved trading atmosphere and a slight price increase due to better demand conditions [1] Group 1: Market Price and Trends - As of January 27, the average price of medium-sized urea in China is 1763.10 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.17% [1] - Urea companies are experiencing a decrease in inventory, currently at 820,000 tons, which is a 2.14% decline from the previous period [1] Group 2: Demand and Production - The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has improved to 49.27%, up by 6.11 percentage points week-on-week, indicating a recovery in production [1] - Some fertilizer companies are preparing for post-holiday shipments, with production in Hubei and Henan provinces gradually resuming [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - In early February, production is expected to increase as maintenance facilities in Chongqing and Inner Mongolia come back online, potentially raising daily output to over 210,000 tons [1] - As the Spring Festival approaches, it is anticipated that the operating rates of downstream compound fertilizer and industrial enterprises will gradually decline [1] - Urea companies currently have good pre-receipt orders, leading to limited downward price pressure, with expectations of narrow price adjustments before stabilizing for the holiday period [1]

Summary of Company and Industry Insights Company Overview - **Company Name**: 云图控股 (Yuntu Holdings) - **Industry**: Compound Fertilizer Key Points Company Positioning - Yuntu Holdings is a leading enterprise in the compound fertilizer sector, with an annual production capacity of 7.45 million tons of compound fertilizer and ongoing capacity expansion in Guangxi and Xinjiang [1] - The company is projected to achieve a compound fertilizer sales volume of 3.46 million tons in 2024, reinforcing its position as a market leader in the compound fertilizer industry [1][2] Market Dynamics - The company has significant channel and brand advantages, which are expected to drive rapid growth in compound fertilizer production and sales as market share consolidates among leading companies [2] - The construction of urea production capacity includes a 700,000-ton ammonia synthesis facility and a 1 million-ton urea facility in Hubei, with all urea produced being used internally [2] Cost Management and Pricing Outlook - Urea prices are anticipated to rise from their bottom levels by 2026, which could lead to substantial cost savings for the company [2] - Excess ammonia can be utilized for the production of soda ash, thereby reducing production costs for soda ash [3] Resource Development - The company owns three phosphate mines, with the Aju Luo Xia phosphate mine having a capacity of 2.9 million tons per year. Production is steadily increasing, and once fully operational, self-sourced phosphate is expected to grow at a higher rate [4] - The company has developed technology for the extraction and purification of wet phosphoric acid, allowing for graded utilization based on different concentrations, which can lead to low-cost production of high-value products [4] - The cost advantages of iron phosphate and monoammonium phosphate are highlighted, along with the company being a leader in sulfuric acid production from iron sulfide with a capacity of 1.2 million tons per year [4] Current Market Conditions - High sulfur prices currently favor the company's sulfuric acid production from iron sulfide, providing significant cost savings [5]

Company and Industry Summary Company: Yuntu Holdings (云图控股) Industry: Compound Fertilizer Key Points - **Leading Position in Compound Fertilizer Industry** Yuntu Holdings is recognized as a leading enterprise in the compound fertilizer industry, with a national production capacity that reflects its scale advantages. The company has a phosphate fertilizer production capacity of nearly 8 million tons, with projected sales of 4.1797 million tons for 2024. In the first half of the year, the phosphate fertilizer business generated revenue of 7.222 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.55%, with stable sales growth maintained [1][1][1] - **Production Base Locations** The existing production bases are located in various regions including Hubei (应城, 荆州, 宜城), Sichuan (眉山), Henan (宁陵), Shandong (平原), Liaoning (铁岭), Heilongjiang (肇东, 佳木斯), and Xinjiang (昌吉). Additionally, there are ongoing construction projects for compound fertilizer production capacity totaling 1.9 million tons in Hubei, Guangxi, and Xinjiang [1][1][1] - **Future Capacity Expansion** As the new production capacity is gradually released, the scale advantages of the company's phosphate fertilizer main business are expected to further enhance overall profitability [2][2][2] - **Synthetic Ammonia Project Progress** The synthetic ammonia project at the Yuncheng base, which includes a 700,000-ton synthetic ammonia facility, is progressing smoothly. This facility will support the production of 600,000 tons of water-soluble compound fertilizer, 400,000 tons of slow-release compound fertilizer, and a 1.5 million-ton refined salt project. The refined salt production line has already been completed and is in trial production [3][3][3] - **Self-Sufficiency in Nitrogen Fertilizer Raw Materials** The Guigang base will construct production lines with an annual capacity of 2 million tons of synthetic ammonia, 3 million tons of urea, and 1.2 million tons of high-efficiency compound fertilizer in three phases. Once operational, these projects will effectively fill the urea production capacity gap and achieve self-sufficiency in nitrogen fertilizer raw materials, further strengthening the company's low-cost advantage and solidifying its leading position in the industry [3][3][3] - **Phosphate Mining Project Development** The company owns three phosphate mines in Leibo County, Sichuan, with a total resource reserve of approximately 549 million tons. Ongoing projects include the orderly advancement of the 2.9 million-ton mining and selection project at the Ajuoluo phosphate mine and the 4 million-ton mining project at the Niuniuzhai site, which is currently in the "exploration to mining" phase. By 2024, the phosphate acid grading utilization industry chain under the company's Jingzhou New Energy subsidiary will have reached full production capacity, ensuring a stable supply of high-quality phosphoric acid for production [3][3][3] - **Cost Advantages and Product Structure Transformation** The comprehensive utilization of phosphate resources is expected to continuously enhance the company's cost advantages and synergistic effects, driving the transformation of phosphate fertilizer product structure towards greener, more refined, and higher value-added directions [3][3][3] - **Risk Factors** Potential risks include lower-than-expected downstream demand, intensified industry competition, and delays in capacity deployment [4][4][4]