1. Report Overview - Report Name: Hualian Futures Silver Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 18, 2025 [1] - Author: Zeng Ke [1] - Transaction Consultation Number: Z0022773 [1] - Qualification Number: F03118676 [1] 2. Market Performance - Price Increase: In 2025, the cumulative increases were 148% and 129% respectively [1] - Spread: Last week, the spread between domestic and foreign silver futures continued to climb, closing at a maximum spread of 2330; the London spot gold - silver ratio fell below 50 during the week and finally closed at 51.02 [1] 3. US Economic Indicators - Manufacturing PMI: In December, the US manufacturing PMI was 47.9, lower than the expected 48.4 and the previous value of 48.2 [1] - Employment: In December, non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 65,000, and the data for the previous two months was significantly revised downward; the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5% [1] - Inflation: In December, the US CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, the same as in November, in line with market expectations; the core CPI rose 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, the same as in November, lower than the expected 2.7% [1] - Interest Rate: Last week, the yield on the 10 - year US Treasury note rose 6 basis points, and the US dollar index continued to strengthen [1] 4. Silver Supply and Demand - Supply - demand Gap: In 2025, the global silver market's supply - demand gap is expected to exceed 100 million ounces, with the market in a state of supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year [1] - Investment Demand: As of January 16, 2026, the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, SLV, were 16,070 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.444% [1] - Inventory: The LBMA inventory has dropped to a historical low. As of December, there were about 27,817 tons of silver inventory, but most of it is silver physically linked to ETFs and cannot be freely circulated, so the available inventory is tight [1] 5. Market Views and Strategies - View: Last week, silver rose strongly and then adjusted, remaining at a high level overall. The market's safe - haven demand support remains strong. The supply side of silver has significant growth difficulties, while the demand side has obvious increments. The structural trend of silver has not changed, and the medium - to - long - term trend is expected to remain strong [9] - Strategy: It is recommended to hold long positions in AG2604 in the medium term [9] 6. Risk and Disclaimer - Risk: The report reminds investors to carefully judge the accuracy and integrity of the information and bear investment risks independently [1][11][13] - Disclaimer: The information in the report comes from publicly available information, and the report does not guarantee the completeness and authenticity of the information. It does not constitute the final basis for buying or selling relevant futures varieties [91]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles revolves around the sudden drop in precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver, due to political uncertainty in the U.S. and regulatory actions in China [1][3][9] - On January 16, 2026, gold prices fell below $4600 per ounce, closing at $4583.86, while silver dropped to $89.41 per ounce, marking a significant decline of 6% for silver and 1.7% for gold [1][3] - The market's reaction was triggered by President Trump's comments regarding the potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which raised concerns about the future of monetary policy [3][4] Group 2 - Trump's hesitation about Hassett's nomination, who is viewed as a "dovish" candidate, led to fears that the Fed may not pursue a more accommodative monetary policy, impacting gold's attractiveness [3][4][7] - The market's focus shifted to Kevin Walsh, a known "hawk," suggesting a potential tightening of monetary policy, which further fueled uncertainty [4][7] - The uncertainty surrounding the Fed's direction caused traders to reassess their expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a decrease in the predicted likelihood of rate reductions in 2026 [7][12] Group 3 - In addition to U.S. political factors, a regulatory crackdown in China on high-frequency trading significantly impacted silver prices, which had previously surged due to speculative trading [9][11] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange implemented measures to limit the maximum number of new positions traders could open in silver futures, effectively curbing speculative trading [11] - Recent strong economic data from the U.S., including lower unemployment claims and rising retail sales, further dampened expectations for imminent rate cuts by the Fed, reinforcing a high-rate environment [12][14] Group 4 - The announcement that the U.S. government would not impose tariffs on key minerals, including silver, alleviated some short-term risks that had previously supported silver prices [14] - Technical analysis indicated that both gold and silver were experiencing significant corrections after reaching extreme overbought conditions, with gold hitting a resistance level at $4643 [14][15] - Overall, the precious metals market is currently influenced by a combination of policy expectations, market sentiment, and regulatory changes, leading to heightened volatility [15]

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding the selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chairman has led to a decline in precious metals prices, despite some weekly gains in various commodities [1] Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold decreased by 0.44% to $4,595.23 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 1.91% [1] - COMEX gold futures fell by 0.57% to $4,597 per ounce, showing a weekly rise of 2.12% [1] Group 2: Silver Market - Spot silver dropped by 2.72% to $89.9079 per ounce, but recorded a significant weekly increase of 12.70% [1] - COMEX silver futures declined by 2.82% to $89.740 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 13.12% [1] Group 3: Platinum and Palladium Markets - Spot platinum fell by 3.32% to $2,332.33 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 2.42% [1] - Spot palladium decreased by 0.72% to $1,809.76 per ounce, marking a weekly decline of 0.67% [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent surge in gold prices, surpassing $4600 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and central bank purchases [1] - New entrants in the market often worry about making poor investment choices rather than just price movements [1] Group 2: Platform Selection Criteria - Regulatory credentials are crucial when selecting a gold trading platform, with AA membership from the Hong Kong Gold Exchange being a significant indicator of reliability [3] - Platforms should ensure fund segregation and third-party bank custody to enhance trust [3] - User experience is vital, with a focus on platform usability, execution speed, and the availability of educational resources for beginners [4] Group 3: Stability and Risk Management - Platform stability is essential during market volatility, as server issues can lead to significant financial losses [5] - Features such as backup systems, 24/7 customer support, and effective risk management tools like stop-loss orders are important for traders [5] - New traders are advised to start with small real accounts to familiarize themselves with the trading environment [5] Group 4: Standards for Legitimate Trading Platforms - Legitimate platforms must have clear regulatory backgrounds, transparent fund management, and clearly stated trading costs [6] - Understanding trading terms such as leverage, spreads, and overnight fees is critical before engaging in trading [6] - Providing educational materials on market fundamentals can help traders make informed decisions [6]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing unprecedented interest and price movements, driven by geopolitical tensions and changes in trade policies, leading to a significant decline in the gold-silver ratio for the first time in 14 years [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Silver prices have surged, with the gold-silver ratio dropping below 50, indicating a strong market shift [1]. - The U.S. has classified silver as a critical mineral, while China has imposed stricter export controls, intensifying trade tensions [3]. - Investor interest in silver has increased significantly, supported by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and diversification trends in investment portfolios [4]. Group 2: Trading Activity - Current trading activity in silver is 2.1 times its three-month average, surpassing both gold and cryptocurrencies in retail momentum and abnormal capital inflows [6]. - Retail investors have injected a record $921.8 million into silver-related ETFs over the past 30 days, marking the largest buying scale in history [8]. - The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) has seen an unprecedented 169 consecutive days of net inflows from retail investors, indicating a fundamental shift in asset allocation rather than mere opportunistic buying [8]. Group 3: Price Volatility and Future Outlook - Anticipation of potential U.S. tariffs on silver, possibly up to 50%, has led to liquidity pressures in the London market, amplifying price volatility [10]. - Goldman Sachs notes that while silver has shown strong performance, its volatility is higher than gold, which could lead to significant fluctuations in the gold-silver ratio [16]. - The structural advantages of gold remain, with expectations of continued central bank purchases, projected to average 70 tons per month by 2026, significantly higher than the 17 tons per month average in 2022 [14].

Group 1 - Precious metal prices are experiencing a pullback, with spot silver falling below $90 per ounce and London silver down over 1% as of the report date [2] - Analyst Kyle Rodda indicates that stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data has reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, leading to decreased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The U.S. Department of Labor reported a decrease of 9,000 in initial jobless claims, bringing the total to 198,000, which is below the expected 215,000 by Reuters economists [2] Group 2 - Despite the pullback in precious metal prices, silver demand is at an all-time high, with the U.S. Mint halting silver sales [4] - SPDR Gold Trust's holdings increased by 0.05% to 1,074.80 tons, marking the highest level in over three and a half years [4] - Vanda Research reports that silver has become the most crowded commodity trade, with individual investors rapidly purchasing silver [4] - Analysts from Yide Futures suggest that current investment and physical demand remain strong, with potential downside for silver prices mainly stemming from financial attributes, particularly the weakening expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the silver market is experiencing significant volatility, with a sharp decline observed, dropping over 7% to a low of $86.403 per ounce, and later stabilizing around $89.55 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 4% decrease [1] - Short-term risks in the precious metals market are highlighted, including increased margin requirements by the CME, which may curb high-leverage speculative trading, and the potential for profit-taking by investors [1] - The Bloomberg Commodity Index's annual rebalancing has led to a substantial reduction in the weight of precious metals, resulting in passive liquidation by index-tracking funds, which could exert downward pressure on prices [1] Group 2 - The medium-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations that the price center will continue to rise due to persistent geopolitical risks in regions like the Middle East and the Americas, providing long-term safe-haven support [2] - The initiation of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle is anticipated, with expectations of two additional rate cuts by 2026, which will lower the opportunity cost of holding precious metals, thus supporting prices in the medium to long term [2] - Structural supply shortages in silver have persisted for five consecutive years, alongside growing global central bank demand for gold, which are fundamental factors expected to sustain high price levels for precious metals [2]

Core Insights - Central banks globally have significantly increased their gold purchases, surpassing their holdings of US Treasury bonds for the first time in history, indicating a shift in trust from traditional safe assets to gold [1] - Hong Kong is emerging as a critical hub for gold logistics and storage, with plans to increase its gold storage capacity to 2,000 tons, equivalent to Germany's official gold reserves [3][4] Group 1: Hong Kong's Role - Hong Kong's unique position allows it to connect with mainland China's vast gold consumption market, which accounts for over 70% of global physical gold demand [4] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has designated Hong Kong warehouses as offshore delivery points, enabling international investors to directly access gold contracts traded in Shanghai [4][6] - Hong Kong aims to establish itself as a new center for global gold pricing and settlement, leveraging its geographical and regulatory advantages [10] Group 2: Financial System Transformation - The traditional global trade model, which relied on the US dollar, is being challenged as Hong Kong seeks to create a new cycle based on gold, allowing countries to bypass the dollar in trade settlements [6][7] - Gold is becoming a universal "passport" across financial systems, providing a stable alternative for countries wary of US sanctions and dollar volatility [7] - The rise of private institutions holding significant gold reserves, such as those backing stablecoins, is enhancing gold's role in the modern digital financial system [9] Group 3: Implications for Investors - The increasing linkage between the Chinese yuan and gold is making gold-denominated assets, like gold ETFs, more attractive to investors, as they hedge against currency risks [11] - Companies involved in gold storage, financial infrastructure, and precious metal trading in Hong Kong are seeing their business prospects reassessed positively [11] - The shift towards gold as a strategic asset is gradually changing asset management practices, encouraging diversification away from dollar-denominated assets [11][12]

Group 1 - Recent spot silver prices have surpassed $90 per ounce for the first time, with a year-to-date increase of 25%, and a market capitalization exceeding $5 trillion, surpassing Nvidia [1] - Citigroup has raised its silver price target to $100, indicating a potential bull market in precious metals [1] - Historical data shows that approximately 90% of retail investors have been trapped after chasing prices in the $70-$80 range over the past three months [1] Group 2 - Paper silver trading has a hidden cost of 0.04 yuan per gram, leading to an implicit loss of 0.5% for investors upon entry at current prices [3] - The margin ratio for COMEX silver futures has decreased to 12%, but price fluctuations exceeding 3% can trigger forced liquidation [3] - In September 2025, an investor faced a $230,000 debt to a brokerage due to leveraged trading leading to a margin call [3] Group 3 - Physical silver investment carries risks, with a commercial bank quoting a premium of 21% over spot prices for 1 kg silver bars, and an 8% loss fee upon buyback [5] - Investors need silver prices to rise to $98.7 to break even at the current $90 price point, excluding additional costs like storage and insurance [5] - The RSI indicator for silver has remained above 70 for 14 consecutive days, indicating overbought conditions, while the number of open futures contracts has surged by 37% [5] Group 4 - The London Bullion Market Association's inventory data shows an 82% year-on-year increase in delivery stocks, contradicting claims of physical shortages [7] - The negative correlation between the US dollar index and silver prices is weakening as expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts diminish [7] - Historical patterns suggest that the current market dynamics, where retail investors are going long while institutional investors are shorting, resemble the conditions before the 2020 oil crisis [5][7]

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of selecting a reliable gold trading app, focusing on three critical aspects: licensing, fund security, and trading experience [1] Group 2 - Licensing is crucial as it serves as the platform's "identity card," with a strong emphasis on regulatory approval from reputable markets like Hong Kong [3] - Fund security is highlighted as a "lifeline," stressing the need for segregated accounts where trading margins are kept separate from the platform's operational funds [4] - Trading experience should be transparent and smooth, with clear pricing, minimal delays, and verifiable transaction codes to ensure fairness [5] Group 3 - Common pitfalls for beginners include being lured by promises of "high returns, zero risk," neglecting to verify the platform's licensing, and overlooking the benefits of using a demo account to familiarize with the trading environment [6]