本周工业硅现货价格下跌。过去一周（2025年4月3日-9日），主力合约收盘价从9820元/吨震荡波 动至9485元/吨，跌幅为3.41%。全国综合价格为9922元/吨，下跌310元/吨，其中分牌号来看，553为 9701元/吨、441为10158元/吨、421为10551元/吨，分别下跌318元/吨、301元/吨、313元/吨和324元/吨， 新疆、云南、福建和四川的综合价格为9831元/吨、10578元/吨、15268元/吨和10650元/吨。FOB价格上 涨60美元/吨。 短期来看，供需关系难以改善，较高的行业库存去化较为困难，工业硅价格上方压力较大，下方需 求支撑较弱，整体市场情绪较为悲观，预计价格仍将维持底部区间震荡。 （李敏） 本周工业硅市场仍以按需采购为主，盘面接连下跌叠加下游需求不振，现货价格下跌。供应端，北 方地区按计划减产，南方地区在当前市场行情下开工意愿较低，整体开工情况未有明显变化。需求端， 有机硅单体厂或会进一步加大减产力度，整体产量有减少预期，对工业硅需求减少；多晶硅厂有新增产 能投放和企业检修，总体产量持稳，对工业硅需求持稳；铝合金企业按需采购，整体需求有继续小幅减 少的预期。价格 ...

工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 4 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 点评 7 日多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2506 收于 43265 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.67%，持仓增仓 1788 手至 33190 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 42000 元/吨，现货对主力贴水收至 1265 元/吨。工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2505 收于 9550 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.7%，持仓减仓 9409 手至 17.02 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 10605 元/吨，较上一交易日下调 45 元/吨。最低交割品#553 价格降至 9650 元/吨，现货贴水收至 20 元/吨。企业联合 减产量级有限且需求持续疲弱，硅厂关于后续减产扩大与否仍未达成共识，难以形 成持续有效去库效果。预计减产在消息端有一定稳定市场情绪作用，但过剩压力高 企状态下，市场对再次减产的反应将逐步弱化。4 月多晶硅交割业务开启，交仓承 载结构性需求，但现货成交未见增速，且期现贸易商和厂家关于远月定价意见分 歧。供需错配预期加码、多晶硅延续近强远弱格局，持续跟踪交割进度及产业库存 去化节奏。 工业硅日报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FU ...

存维持高位，操作上建议，工业硅主力合约2505，震荡区间9700-10100，止损价格9600和10200，注意操 工业硅产业日报 2025-04-02 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 9760 | -30 主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 192480 | -17564 | | | 前20名净持仓(日,手) | -38440 | 2566 广期所仓单(日,手) | 70034 | 324 | | | 5-9月合约价差 | -85 | -15 | | | | 现货市场 | 通氧553#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 10200 | 0 421#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 11050 | 0 | | | Si主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 440 | 30 DMC现货价(日,元/吨) | 14400 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 硅石平均价(日,元/吨) | 410 | 0 石油焦平均价(日,元/吨) | 1650 | 0 | | | 精煤平均 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market remains stable with no significant improvement, facing a dual reduction in supply and demand, leading to a pessimistic market sentiment and expectations of price fluctuations within a bottom range [1] Supply Side - The main contract price fluctuated from 9920 CNY/ton to 9760 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.61% over the past week [1] - In March, manufacturers maintained normal production levels, resulting in a slight increase in output compared to February, but with a projected overall reduction of about 8% as northern manufacturers implement production cuts [1] - Some new production capacity is expected to come online, but the overall reduction in supply is greater than the increase [1] Demand Side - The operating load of organic silicon monomer plants continues to decline, leading to reduced demand for industrial silicon [1] - The operating levels of polysilicon plants remain stable, maintaining demand for industrial silicon [1] - Aluminum alloy plants are purchasing industrial silicon based on demand, with an overall slight decrease in demand expectations [1] Price Dynamics - Some monomer plants are experiencing significant inventory pressure, leading to a strong desire to reduce stock, which is causing downward pressure on transaction prices [1] - Polysilicon prices remain stable despite the overall market conditions [1] - The industrial silicon market is expected to face pressure due to high inventory levels, contributing to a pessimistic market outlook [1]

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 4 月 2 日） 一、研究观点 点评 1 日多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2506 收于 43560 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.28%，持仓增仓 890 手至 26637 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 42000 元/吨，现货对主力贴水扩至 1560 元/吨。工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2505 收于 9790 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.31%，持仓减仓 10118 手至 21 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 10680 元/吨，较上一交易日持稳。最低 交割品#553 价格降至 9650 元/吨，现货贴水收至 65 元/吨。近期企业联合减产消息 出现，但仍未达成共识。在大厂出现大规模减产动作前，工业硅库存难以形成有效 去化，延续探底节奏。缅甸地震导致国内西部拉棒核心产区云南、宜宾一带厂家出 现焖锅、炸棒、炸炉等情况，叠加进入 4 月交割带动部分需求，多晶硅下方有支 撑，但近期终端抢装消化组件库存，稀释需求传导，上方空间有限制。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监测 三、图表分析 3.1 工业硅及成本端价格 图表 1： ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 31, polysilicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2506 closing at 43,460 yuan/ton, an intraday decline of 1.36%, and the position increasing by 159 lots to 27,527 lots. The SMM polysilicon N-type silicon material price was 42,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount to the main contract narrowed to 1,460 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon also fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2505 closing at 9,785 yuan/ton, an intraday decline of 1.12%, and the position decreasing by 9,139 lots to 220,200 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 10,680 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 grade dropped to 9,650 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 130 yuan/ton. Recently, there have been reports of joint production cuts by enterprises, but no consensus has been reached. Before large manufacturers implement large-scale production cuts, it is difficult to effectively reduce industrial silicon inventories, and the price will continue to bottom out. The earthquake in Myanmar has caused problems such as furnace shutdowns, rod explosions, and furnace explosions in factories in Yunnan and Yibin, the core rod-drawing regions in western China. Coupled with the demand driven by the April delivery, there is support for the polysilicon price. However, the recent end-market rush to install has digested component inventories, diluting the demand transmission, and there is limited upside potential [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,820 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 9,780 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades remained stable compared to the previous trading day. The current lowest deliverable price was 9,650 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed by 90 yuan to -130 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange remained unchanged at 69,791 tons, and the total industrial silicon inventory (weekly) increased by 2,345 tons to 348,955 tons. The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 2,200 tons to 407,700 tons [4] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract and the near-month contract both decreased by 190 yuan/ton to 43,460 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price was 42,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed by 190 yuan to -1,460 yuan/ton [4] - **Organic Silicon**: The DMC price in the East China market remained stable at 14,500 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil decreased by 1,200 yuan/ton to 14,800 yuan/ton [4] - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers remained unchanged, the prices of battery cells remained unchanged, and the prices of some photovoltaic modules increased slightly [4] 2. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices**: The charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6] - **Downstream Product Prices**: The charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13] - **Inventory**: The charts show the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19] - **Cost and Profit**: The charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [25] 3. Team Introduction - The nonferrous metals team of Everbright Futures Research Institute consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng has more than a decade of commodity research experience and has won multiple industry awards. Wang Heng focuses on the research of aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi focuses on the research of lithium and nickel [35]

Industrial Silicon - In February, the spot price of industrial silicon remained stable initially but then declined towards the end of the month due to low market activity and a lack of consensus on price expectations between buyers and sellers [1] - The supply side is expected to increase with the resumption of production by major manufacturers and the introduction of new capacity, while demand remains weak with no significant growth anticipated [1] - Overall, industrial silicon prices are expected to remain stable at low levels due to high inventory and cost support from the lower end [1] Polysilicon - In February 2025, the polysilicon market price remained stable, with n-type raw material monthly average prices at 41,700 CNY/ton and n-type granular silicon at 39,000 CNY/ton [2] - The market saw limited transaction volume as downstream companies completed post-holiday restocking, leading to uneven distribution of raw material inventory [2] - The supply of polysilicon is expected to remain below 100,000 tons in March, with demand primarily driven by rigid procurement [2] Monocrystalline Silicon - The price of silicon wafers remained stable, with N-type G10L at 1.18 CNY/piece, N-type G12R at 1.30 CNY/piece, and N-type G12 at 1.55 CNY/piece [4] - The stability in prices is supported by the proactive response of specialized silicon wafer companies to industry self-discipline and a recovering domestic component market driven by power market reforms [4] - The supply-demand relationship for G12R has improved significantly due to strong downstream purchasing demand, leading to price increases for G12R series batteries [4]