证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 21 日 湘财证券研究所 策略研究 策略月报 2 月热点或将延续 1 月的科技、有色等方向 ——2026 年 02 月 A 股策略 率窄幅震荡》 2025.11.25 证书编号：S0500519120001 Tel：(8621) 50295323 Email：qh3062@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： 相关研究： 2026 年宏观短周期和中周期有望形成向上共振格局 1. 《20251125湘财证券-策略研 究-12月等待政策定调，市场大概 2. 《20251222湘财证券-策略研 究-1月市场大概率继续窄幅震荡》 2025.12.22 我们预判 2026 年宏观中周期和宏观短周期均处于底部反弹的阶段，有望形 成向上共振格局。具体原因有：一是海外方面，中美贸易冲突缓和，有助于 减轻经济下行压力。二是"十五五"规划即将落地，新质生产力依然是重要 发展方向，随着人工智能等科技领域的快速发展，将有效推动我国产业升级。 三是 2025 年 12 月中央经济工作会议定调 2026 年宏观政策为继续实施更加 积极的财政政策、适度 ...

《通知》要求，要检查生产设施及沟渠，确保棚膜覆盖严实无破损，防止积雪压垮；露地蔬菜确 保"三沟"畅通，防止渍害与冻害叠加发生。要强化保温控温，必要时可用应急加温设备进行控温；露地 蔬菜可进行浮面覆盖或搭小拱棚覆盖。要细化农事操作，降雪期间及时清除棚面或覆盖物积雪；设施大 棚在保证温度的前提下，白天尽早揭开保温被，必要时进行人工补光；暂停整枝、打杈、疏花疏果等农 事操作，及时采收成熟果蔬，减少养分消耗。要做好低温冻害防治，可喷施叶面肥，提高植株抗寒能 力，根系生长弱的可酌情增施促根肥料，设施蔬菜尽量不浇水或少浇水。要加强病虫害预防，若发生病 害，宜选用高效、低毒、低残留药剂，并严格执行农药安全间隔期规定。要确保安全生产，使用加温设 备时，防止火灾和一氧化碳中毒事故发生，雨雪天气进行农事操作时，务必做好安全防护。 省园艺技术工作站相关负责人表示，各设区市园艺（蔬菜、农技）站（中心）及杨陵区果蔬管理局 要迅速行动，抓紧落实各项防灾减灾关键技术措施，最大限度减轻灾害损失。（记者：吴莎莎） 1月19日，记者从省农业农村厅获悉：陕西省园艺技术工作站日前下发《关于切实做好近期强降温 及雨雪冰冻天气蔬菜生产防灾减灾工作的通知 ...

Investment Rating - The overall industry investment rating is "Positive" for the planting and livestock sectors, "Neutral" for forestry and aquaculture, and "II" for agricultural product processing [7][8]. Core Insights - The pig price is experiencing a seasonal rebound, with the average price at 12.78 CNY/kg, a slight increase of 0.15 CNY from the previous week. However, the mid-term outlook remains pessimistic due to ongoing market pressures [6][23]. - The livestock industry is undergoing a capacity reduction, with the number of breeding sows decreasing to 39.90 million heads, down 1.1% month-on-month. This trend is expected to continue due to low market prices, rising epidemic risks, and policy pressures [7][24]. - The chicken industry is facing high capacity levels, with prices expected to fluctuate in the mid-term. The average price for broiler chickens is currently at 3.77 CNY/kg, reflecting a slight decrease [8][25]. - The yellow chicken market is anticipated to see price increases due to low production levels, with the average price at 12.95 CNY/kg [10][27]. - The veterinary medicine sector is experiencing a price rebound for key antibiotics, with a year-on-year increase of over 20% expected [11][27]. - The seed industry is benefiting from favorable policies and the advancement of genetically modified crops, which is expected to enhance sales and pricing for quality seed companies [13][28]. - Grain prices are projected to rise in the mid-term due to reduced imports and supportive domestic policies, with corn prices currently at 2369 CNY/ton [14][29]. Summary by Sections Livestock Industry - The average price for live pigs is 12.78 CNY/kg, with a slight increase of 0.15 CNY from last week. The average price for piglets is 25.14 CNY/kg, up 0.66 CNY [6][23]. - The operating rate of large-scale slaughterhouses is 38.58%, down 1.19 percentage points from last week [6][23]. - The number of breeding sows has decreased to 39.90 million heads, down 1.1% month-on-month, indicating a trend of capacity reduction [7][24]. Chicken Industry - The average price for broiler chickens is 3.77 CNY/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.03 CNY from last week [8][25]. - The industry is at a historically high capacity level, with prices expected to remain volatile in the mid-term [9][26]. - The yellow chicken market is expected to tighten supply, with prices likely to rise due to low production levels [10][27]. Veterinary Medicine - Key antibiotic prices are rebounding, with a year-on-year increase of over 20% expected [11][27]. - The market for veterinary vaccines is also growing, with increased sales anticipated for domestically produced vaccines [12][27]. Seed and Grain Industry - The seed industry is benefiting from favorable policies and advancements in genetically modified crops, which are expected to drive sales and pricing [13][28]. - Grain prices are projected to rise due to reduced imports and supportive domestic policies, with corn prices currently at 2369 CNY/ton [14][29].

Group 1 - The fourth Yangtze River Delta Agricultural and Rural Ecological Green Low-Carbon Development Academic Seminar was held in Rugao, showcasing new technologies for straw returning and soil quality improvement [1] - The province produces approximately 40 million tons of straw annually, with straw returning technology having been promoted for 13 years, facing challenges such as slow decomposition and pest issues [1] - New technologies presented include flame deactivation technology, which can quickly deactivate surface microorganisms on straw, leading to a yield increase of 65 kilograms per mu for rice when combined with biological agents [1] Group 2 - The provincial agricultural research team's microbial synergistic degradation technology has significantly increased straw degradation rates, while deep plowing returning technology reduces greenhouse gas emissions and enhances soil organic matter [2] - The team has innovatively proposed deep plowing to a depth of 20-25 centimeters, promoting microbial activity and accelerating the conversion of straw carbon to soil organic carbon [2] - In demonstration bases in Rugao, deep plowing has resulted in a yield increase of 600 jin per mu, with a 46% improvement in seedling emergence rates compared to conventional tillage [2] - These technologies have been promoted across various types of problematic soils in Jiangsu, improving soil quality by 0.5 to 1 grade [2]

如何分辨彩色小麦和普通小麦呢？杨艳霞说，目前田里的麦子还处于麦苗阶段，现在种植的紫色小麦品 种比普通小麦矮小一些，如果只从叶片或外形来看其实差别不大，一般很难分辨。随后，她向记者展示 了紫色、黑色、绿色等颜色的麦粒，"最直观的办法是等麦子结出麦穗，通过麦穗颜色来进行分辨。" 杨艳霞介绍，彩色小麦的种植过程、田间管理等和普通小麦没有太大区别，彩色小麦的抗病性、抗倒伏 要强一些，结出来的麦粒比普通的麦粒要小一些。 紫色、黑色、绿色……专家揭秘彩色小麦： 从左至右依次为黑色、紫色、绿色的小麦麦粒。 紫色、黑色、绿色的麦粒，你见过吗？近期，新品种彩色小麦在成都种下，它结出的麦粒颠覆了人们的 认知，不是普通的黄色，而是紫色、黑色、绿色等。彩色小麦是怎么来的？和普通小麦有什么区别？近 日，记者进行了实地走访，同时采访了农业专家进行揭秘。 彩色小麦和普通小麦 仅从麦粒颜色分辨 在成都市郫都区一处农田，记者看到田里整齐长着几厘米高的麦苗，一片绿油油的海洋。"这些就是彩 色小麦。"家庭农场负责人杨艳霞指着身后介绍，这些彩色小麦是2025年11月下旬种植的，由于遇到下 雨，比正常种植期晚了10天左右，预计今年5月左右收割。"今年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [3][5]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is expected to experience upward price trends, particularly in beef and dairy, while grain prices are stabilizing at historical lows [1][3][5]. - The supply-demand dynamics for corn and soybeans remain loose, with global ending stocks projected to increase, while domestic prices are expected to find strong support at current low levels [1][2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - The USDA January supply and demand report forecasts a global corn production increase of 13.05 million tons (approximately +1.02%) to 1.283 billion tons for the 25/26 season, with a corresponding increase in the global ending stocks-to-use ratio by 0.86 percentage points to 22.38% [15][16]. - Domestic corn prices are currently at a historical low, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.04% and a year-on-year increase of 10.30% [18]. Soybeans - The USDA report indicates a global soybean production increase of 3.14 million tons, with ending stocks projected to rise by 2.04 million tons (approximately +1.67%) to 124 million tons for the 25/26 season [33][34]. - Short-term support for soybean prices is expected from import costs, while long-term trends are anticipated to improve as Brazilian soybeans come to market [35]. Wheat - The USDA report predicts a global wheat production increase of 4.36 million tons (approximately +0.52%) for the 25/26 season, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio increasing by 0.37 percentage points to 33.77% [47][48]. - Domestic wheat prices are expected to stabilize at low levels, with current prices at 2,515 yuan per ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.15% [50]. Beef - The USDA forecasts a decrease in U.S. beef production for 2026, with prices expected to rise by approximately 5.1% year-on-year [3][19]. - Domestic beef prices are anticipated to maintain an upward trend due to reduced production capacity and lower imports [3][19]. Dairy - The USDA predicts a slight reduction in U.S. milk ending stocks, with prices expected to remain favorable due to a contraction in domestic dairy cow capacity [3][24]. - The interplay between meat and dairy sectors is expected to drive a recovery in dairy prices [3][24]. Pork - The USDA projects a 2.69% increase in U.S. pork production for 2026, with prices expected to remain stable at high levels [4][28]. - Domestic breeding sow capacity is being managed to support industry profitability [4][29]. Poultry - U.S. chicken production is expected to recover, with prices projected to perform well due to improved consumer demand [6][30]. - Domestic egg supply is anticipated to be ample, with a year-on-year increase in ending stocks by 23.5% [6][33]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include leading companies in the livestock, pork, poultry, and pet sectors, such as YouRan Agriculture and MuYuan [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [1][3]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the beef prices in the US are expected to maintain an upward trend in 2026, while global corn and soybean ending stocks for the 25/26 season are projected to increase [1][3]. - The agricultural products in the planting chain are currently in a bottom consolidation phase, awaiting upward movement [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - The USDA's January supply and demand report forecasts a global corn production increase of 13.05 million tons (approximately +1.02%) to 1.283 billion tons for the 25/26 season, with a corresponding increase in global ending stocks [15][16]. - The ending stocks-to-use ratio is expected to rise by 0.86 percentage points to 22.38%, with China's ratio increasing by 1.94 percentage points [15][17]. - Domestic corn prices are at historical lows, with a current price of 2318 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.04% and a year-on-year increase of 10.30% [18]. Soybeans - The USDA report predicts a global soybean production increase of 3.14 million tons for the 25/26 season, with ending stocks projected to rise by 2.04 million tons (approximately +1.67%) to 124 million tons [33][34]. - The ending stocks-to-use ratio is expected to increase by 0.39 percentage points to 29.40% [33][34]. - Short-term focus is on South American weather, while long-term trends are expected to improve due to reduced domestic soybean stocks and strong import support [35][37]. Wheat - The USDA's January report indicates a global wheat production increase of 4.36 million tons (approximately +0.52%) for the 25/26 season, with ending stocks projected to rise by 3.38 million tons [47][48]. - The ending stocks-to-use ratio is expected to increase by 0.37 percentage points to 33.77% [47][48]. - Domestic wheat prices are currently at 2515 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.15% [50][52]. Beef - The USDA forecasts a decrease in US beef production for 2026, with an expected overall price increase of approximately 5.1% [3][19]. - The report anticipates that domestic beef prices will maintain a bottoming upward trend due to reduced production capacity and import constraints [3][22]. Dairy - The report notes a slight decrease in US milk ending stocks for 2026, with expectations for domestic raw milk prices to begin an upward trend due to reduced production capacity and import reductions [3][24][26]. Pork - The USDA predicts a 2.69% increase in US pork production for 2026, with overall prices expected to remain high [4][28]. - Domestic breeding sow capacity is being steadily controlled, which is expected to support industry profitability [4][29]. Poultry - The report indicates that US chicken supply is expected to recover, with a slight increase in production and consumption [6][30]. - Domestic egg supply is projected to remain ample, with a year-on-year increase in ending stocks by 23.5% [6][33][34]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies in the livestock, pork, poultry, and pet sectors, including YouRan Agriculture, Modern Agriculture, and MuYuan Co., among others [6][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the role of technological innovation in empowering agricultural development in China, particularly in Gansu Province, where smart greenhouse projects are thriving despite the winter season [2][3][4] - Gansu Province has rapidly developed facility agriculture, achieving "four seasons of freshness and year-round stable supply" through the implementation of smart agricultural technologies [3][4] - The establishment of 14 intensive smart seedling bases and 1,265 standardized greenhouses equipped with IoT devices has enabled precise control of water, light, and nutrients, enhancing the growth of fruits and vegetables [3][4] Group 2 - The "super factory" for roses in Linxia Hui Autonomous Prefecture showcases the integration of advanced technologies, producing over 72 million fresh-cut roses annually, with plans for significant exports by 2025 [3][4] - The shift from traditional agriculture to smart agriculture is highlighted by the use of digital and intelligent systems for real-time monitoring and management of crops and livestock across various regions in China [4][6] - Gansu Agricultural Group is leading the modernization of agriculture by adopting new technologies and establishing smart agriculture demonstration zones, significantly improving farming efficiency [4][6] Group 3 - The development of new cold-resistant oilseed rape varieties in Gansu is a practical example of enhancing agricultural productivity and combating desertification [6][7] - The implementation of 104 key technologies and 62 intelligent equipment breakthroughs during the 14th Five-Year Plan period reflects China's commitment to advancing smart agriculture [6][7] - The transition from "experience-based management" to "technology-driven farming" is effectively empowering agricultural industry development [7]

建设更高标准和美乡村。学习运用"千万工程"经验，分类有序、片区化推进乡村振兴，争创省级片区4 个以上。新改建农村公路220公里，完成80个村供水管网改造，实施文明乡风建设工程，解决好农村改 厕、垃圾围村等问题，持续整治提升农村人居环境。 筑牢更高水平粮食根基。严守耕地保护红线，加快推进盐碱地综合利用，新改建高标准农田20万亩以 上。深入实施粮食产能提升"0543"工程，强化良种繁育，加强农业防灾减灾能力建设，打造齐鲁粮仓核 心区。加快推进智慧型粮食仓储等项目建设，构建国家粮食物流核心枢纽城市。 健全更高效益生产体系。全力提升"食域滨州""粮油金三角"区域品牌价值，推动冬枣、鸭梨、水杏、蜜 桃等巩固优势、提升品质，滨州盐田虾、博兴肉禽、无棣芝麻等壮大规模、拓展市场，小麦、大豆、玉 米、肉牛等发展精深加工、迈向产品高端，积极发展名特优新水产品设施养殖，"好品山东"品牌达到25 个，让更多滨州"土特产"成为富民增收"摇钱树"、乡村振兴"金名片"。 打造更高质量增收模式。完善兜底式保障、强化开发式帮扶，确保不发生规模性返贫致贫。培育壮大富 民产业，发展新型农业经营主体，拓宽群众增收渠道。完善联农带农机制，新增新型农业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The planting industry sector experienced a decline of 0.83% on January 20, with Shennong Seed Industry leading the drop [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14155.63, down 0.97% [1] - The planting industry sector saw a net outflow of 346 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 287 million yuan [2] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Shennong Seed Industry (300189) closed at 6.72, down 7.82%, with a trading volume of 1.8634 million shares and a transaction value of 126.7 million yuan [2] - Qiu Le Seed Industry (920087) closed at 17.19, up 1.66%, with a trading volume of 64,300 shares and a transaction value of 110 million yuan [1] - Zhongxing Fungi Industry (002772) closed at 15.44, up 1.58%, with a trading volume of 99,400 shares and a transaction value of 151 million yuan [1] Group 3: Fund Flow Analysis - Major funds saw a net inflow in Qiu Le Seed Industry of 8.296 million yuan, while retail investors had a net inflow of 264,100 yuan [3] - North China Agricultural University (600598) had a net outflow of 11.4282 million yuan from major funds, but a net inflow of 8.2526 million yuan from retail investors [3] - The overall fund flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with retail investors showing interest despite the overall sector decline [2][3]