核心观点： | | | | [Table_ 货币单位：人民币 Finance] | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 7,950 | 7,759 | 8,539 | 9,323 | 10,094 | | 增长率（ % ） | 1% | -2% | 10% | 9% | 8% | | EBITDA（百万元） | 1,585 | 2,078 | 2,435 | 2,843 | 3,348 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,700 | 2,860 | 2,206 | 2,561 | 2,998 | | 增长率（ ） % | 108% | 68% | -23% | 16% | 17% | | EPS（元/股） | 8 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 14 | | 市盈率（x） | 19 | 11 | 15 | 13 | 11 | | ROE（%） | 15% | 21% | 14% | 14% | 14% | | EV/EBITDA（x） | 20 | 15 | ...

Summary of Earnings Call for NetEase Cloud Music Company Overview - **Company**: NetEase Cloud Music - **Fiscal Year**: 2025 Key Financial Metrics - **Total Revenue**: 77.6 billion, down 2% year-over-year (yoy) [1] - **Operating Profit**: 16.2 billion, up 39% yoy [1] - **Adjusted Net Profit**: 28.6 billion, up 68% yoy [1] - **Operating Profit for 2H25**: 7.8 billion, up 36% yoy [1] - **Adjusted Net Profit for 2H25**: 8.6 billion, up 15% yoy [1] - **Online Music Revenue**: Up 12% yoy [1] Membership and User Growth - **Monthly Active Users (MAU)**: Significant growth with independent monthly users exceeding one million, up 29% yoy [1] - **Daily Active Users (DAU) to MAU Ratio**: Greater than 30% and steadily increasing [1] - **Subscription Revenue**: Up 13% yoy, with mid-teens growth expected [2] - **Non-Subscription Revenue**: Up 5% yoy, but down 7% in 2H25 [2] Revenue Breakdown - **Subscription Revenue**: - 1H25: 15% growth - 2H25: 12% growth, indicating a slowdown [2] - **Non-Subscription Revenue**: - 2H25 decline attributed to fluctuations in digital sales and advertising base effects [2] - **Social Entertainment and Other Revenue**: - Down 32% yoy, with a notable recovery in the latter half of the year [2] Profitability and Cost Management - **Gross Margin**: 35.7% for the year, with a notable improvement from 32.4% in 2H24 [3] - **Cost Control**: - Sales expense ratio stable, management and R&D expenses decreased, indicating high operational efficiency [3] Strategic Insights - **Market Position**: Company has been minimally affected by competition, with stock price adjustments reflecting pessimistic expectations [3] - **Future Outlook**: - Emphasis on young users and potential for subscription business growth in 2026 through promotional reductions rather than price increases [3] - Focus on operating profit growth, with a projected 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% [3] - **Cash Position**: Over 12 billion in net cash at the end of 2025, indicating strong value proposition [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the Non-IFRS net profit forecast for NetEase Cloud Music (09899) for 2026/27, with a target price of HKD 224, indicating a 22% upside from the current price [1] Financial Performance - For 2025, the company's revenue reached RMB 7.759 billion, aligning closely with CICC's expectation of RMB 7.807 billion, while the Non-IFRS net profit was RMB 2.860 billion, also in line with expectations [2] - Online music revenue for 2025 was RMB 5.994 billion, reflecting a 12% year-on-year increase, with subscription revenue growing by 13.3% and non-subscription revenue by 5.2% [2] - The company aims to expand its paid user base in 2026, with expectations for online music revenue to grow by 10.8% year-on-year, and subscription revenue to increase by 12.1% [2] Cost Management and Profitability - The gross margin for 2025 improved to 35.7%, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Sales, management, and R&D expenses decreased year-on-year, indicating a disciplined approach to spending [2] - CICC forecasts a 20% increase in operating profit for 2026, projecting it to reach RMB 1.95 billion [2] Industry Dynamics - The industry is experiencing concerns regarding stability, but NetEase Cloud Music's user base remains relatively stable compared to competitors [3] - The company has launched its self-developed AI recommendation model, Climber, and is focusing on user experience and innovation [3] - CICC emphasizes the importance of monitoring competitors' strategies in copyright and user acquisition [3]

Group 1: Company Overview - NetEase Cloud Music reported FY25 revenue of 7.76 billion RMB, a 2% year-on-year decline, slightly below the consensus estimate of 7.91 billion RMB [2] - Adjusted net profit for FY25 increased by 68% to 2.86 billion RMB, in line with consensus expectations [2] - The adjusted operating profit rose by 32% to 1.73 billion RMB, excluding the impact of deferred income tax credits [2] Group 2: Performance Analysis - In 2H25, online music revenue growth slowed to 8% year-on-year, down from 16% in 1H25 [2] - Overall gross margin in 2H25 decreased by 1.4 percentage points compared to 1H25, primarily due to a decline in high-margin non-member business revenue [2] - Despite the slowdown in non-member business performance, the music membership business remained robust in 2H25 [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The FY26 total revenue forecast has been slightly adjusted downwards by 1% due to the weaker performance of non-member business [2] - The target price for NetEase Cloud Music has been revised down to 245.0 HKD, based on a 23x FY26E non-GAAP PE, reflecting a downward adjustment in sector valuations [2] - The current valuation corresponds to a 15x FY26E PE, combined with a stable profit growth outlook for FY26, making the risk-reward ratio more attractive [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase Cloud Music [7] Core Insights - The company is enhancing collaboration with copyright holders to enrich audio content, resulting in a year-on-year increase in user scale and activity [3] - The report forecasts NetEase Cloud Music's revenue for 2026-2028 to be 84.3 billion, 92.1 billion, and 101.5 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth of +8.6%, +9.3%, and +10.1% respectively [26] - Adjusted net profit is projected to be 22.6 billion, 26.1 billion, and 30.0 billion RMB for the same period, with a year-on-year change of -21.2%, +15.8%, and +14.4% [26] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at 7,950 million RMB, with a slight increase of 1.1% [5] - Gross profit is expected to reach 2,682 million RMB in 2024, with a gross margin of 33.7% [5] - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected at 1,700 million RMB, with an adjusted PE of 13.5 [5] - The company achieved a revenue of 39.3 billion RMB in the second half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [26] - The gross margin for the same period was 35.0%, up by 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [26] Business Performance - Online music revenue in the second half of 2025 was 30.3 billion RMB, up 8.3% year-on-year, with subscription revenue increasing by 11.6% to 25.8 billion RMB [26] - The proportion of subscription revenue in online music services was 85.3% [24] - Social entertainment and other business revenues faced a decline of 16.6% year-on-year, totaling 9.1 billion RMB [26] User Engagement - The platform's user scale and activity both saw year-on-year growth, with the DAU/MAU ratio maintaining above 30% [26] - Daily listening time for mobile users has also shown improvement [26] Strategic Developments - The company has launched its self-developed AI generative recommendation model, Climber, to enhance personalized content distribution [26] - New content from Korean labels has been introduced to supplement the Chinese music library, along with an increase in film soundtracks and variety show music [26]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music's stock performance has recently underperformed the market, with a decline of 5.80% in its Hong Kong shares from January 2 to February 12, 2026, indicating weak market momentum [1] Stock Performance - As of February 12, 2026, Tencent Music's U.S. stock was priced at $15.14, down 10.63% in a single day, while its Hong Kong stock was at HKD 65.00, down 2.26%. During the same period, the Nasdaq index fell by 2.24% and the Hang Seng index decreased by 0.86% [2] Recent Events - Increased competition is evident as ByteDance's "Qishui Music" has rapidly grown to 140 million monthly active users, putting pressure on the industry landscape. Concurrently, Tencent Music's user growth has peaked, leading management to lower its net user growth guidance [3] Operational Status - The company's social entertainment service revenue continues to decline, with a 2.7% year-over-year drop in Q3 2025. Monthly active users have plummeted by 31.6%. The growth in online music revenue is primarily driven by an increase in average revenue per paying user, despite a 4.3% year-over-year decline in music monthly active users [4] Institutional Perspectives - There is a divergence in institutional views. Daiwa upgraded its rating to "Buy" in January 2026 but lowered its target price. Citibank maintained a "Buy" rating in February 2026, believing the company's current valuation is undervalued and optimistic about new business potential [5] Business Development - The company is actively expanding into new businesses such as offline performances, artist merchandise, and AI social products. In Q3 2025, non-subscription revenue surged over 50% year-over-year, although these businesses have lower gross margins, resulting in a quarter-over-quarter decline in overall gross margin [6]

在线音乐收入增速略微放缓 维持"买入"评级 机构：华泰证券 考虑到会员结构对ARPU 的摊薄影响以及公司计划加大营销投入，我们下调26/27、引入28E 调整后归 母净利润为22.39/25.20/27.50 亿元（下调16%/16%/-）。基于26 年调整后归母净利润，给予公司20.71x 26E PE（同可比公司彭博一致预期均值），目标价239.40 港元（前值360.42 港币/27xPE），维持"买 入"评级。 研究员：夏路路/詹博/朱珺/郑裕佳 风险提示：订阅用户增长放缓；内容成本抬升；行业监管收紧等。 25H1/H2 在线音乐收入同比增速分别为15.9%/8.3%，其中会员订阅收入同比增长15.2%/11.6%，我们估 计环比降速主因会员结构变化带来月度ARPU摊薄，料订阅会员规模仍维持稳健增长。公司预计26 年将 继续聚焦热爱音乐的年轻群体，以扩大会员规模为核心重点，加大市场营销和内容自制投入，同时优化 部分渠道折扣力度，有望推动订阅收入量价齐升。 推广费用持续优化，净利润略超预期 25 全年公司毛利率同比上升2pct 至35.7%，主因社交娱乐收入分成下降，同时内容授权成本控制良好。 25 全 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase Cloud Music [7] Core Insights - The company is enhancing collaboration with copyright holders to enrich audio content, resulting in a year-on-year increase in user scale and activity [3] - The report forecasts revenue growth for NetEase Cloud Music, with expected revenues of 84.3 billion, 92.1 billion, and 101.5 billion RMB for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of +8.6%, +9.3%, and +10.1% [26] - Adjusted net profit is projected to be 22.6 billion, 26.1 billion, and 30.0 billion RMB for the same years, with a year-on-year change of -21.2%, +15.8%, and +14.4% [26] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 7,950 million RMB, with a slight increase of 1.1% year-on-year, and expected to reach 10,145 million RMB by 2028, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.1% [5] - Gross profit is expected to rise from 2,682 million RMB in 2024 to 4,259 million RMB in 2028, with gross margin improving from 33.7% to 42.0% [5] - Adjusted net profit is anticipated to increase from 1,700 million RMB in 2024 to 2,987 million RMB in 2028, with a significant jump of 107.7% in 2025 [5] Business Performance - In the second half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 39.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, with a gross margin of 35.0%, up by 2.7 percentage points [26] - Online music revenue reached 30.3 billion RMB in the second half of 2025, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, with subscription revenue increasing by 11.6% to 25.8 billion RMB [26] - The company is focusing on high-quality development of its core music ecosystem, with user engagement metrics showing improvement [26] Market Data - The stock price range over the past 52 weeks is between 130.70 and 302.40 HKD, with a current market capitalization of 36,038 million HKD [8]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that NetEase Cloud Music's revenue for the second half of 2025 is expected to grow by 1.4% year-on-year to 3.932 billion yuan, which is lower than both the bank's and market expectations by 4% and 2.3% respectively [1] Financial Performance - Gross profit is projected to be 1.377 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 35%, both lower than the bank's and market expectations [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit is expected to be 828 million yuan, which is 1.9% higher than the bank's forecast due to strict cost control measures [1] Segment Analysis - Revenue from the online music business is anticipated to increase by 8% year-on-year to 3.027 billion yuan, which is lower than the bank's expectations by 6% and 4.7% [1] Market Outlook - The bank anticipates that the market's weakening outlook on NetEase Cloud Music's core music business will have negative repercussions, although recent stock price movements may have already reflected this [1] - Investor focus will be on strategies to drive music user base growth and average revenue per paying user, profit outlook, and the latest developments in the competitive landscape [1] Investment Rating - The bank sets a target price of 350 HKD for NetEase's stock and maintains a "Buy" rating [1]

证券研究报告 网易云音乐 (9899 HK) 港股通 积极布局会员扩容与价值提升 SAC No. S0570523100002 SFC No. BTP154 华泰研究 年报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(港币): 239.40 夏路路 研究员 xialulu@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 詹博 研究员 zhanbo@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 朱珺 研究员 SAC No. S0570520040004 SFC No. BPX711 zhujun016731@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 郑裕佳 研究员 SAC No. S0570524070002 SFC No. BTB676 zhengyujia@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 基本数据 | 收盘价 (港币 截至 2 月 11 日) | 183.00 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (港币百万) | 39,872 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (港币百万) | 191.98 | | 52 周价格范围 (港币) | 123.60-303.40 ...