Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance reported a stable and orderly fiscal operation in the first three quarters of 2023, emphasizing a proactive fiscal policy aimed at stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations while ensuring necessary expenditure intensity and increasing funding for basic livelihoods and key areas [1] Fiscal Revenue - Total public budget revenue reached 16.39 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5%. The revenue growth showed a recovery trend, with the third quarter seeing a notable increase of 2.5% [1] - Tax revenue, as the main component of fiscal income, grew by 0.7% year-on-year. The domestic value-added tax, reflecting the performance of the industrial and service sectors, increased by 3.6%, outperforming the overall public budget revenue growth by 3.1 percentage points [2] - Corporate income tax rose by 0.8%, with an acceleration of 2.7 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, indicating improved market vitality and recovery in industrial profits [2] Non-Tax Revenue - Non-tax revenue decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, a decline of 4.1 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. However, income from the paid use of state-owned resources grew by 4% [3] Local Government Revenue - Local public budget revenue increased by 1.8% year-on-year, with 27 out of 31 regions maintaining positive growth, despite some areas being affected by falling prices of major commodities [3] Fiscal Expenditure - Total public budget expenditure reached 20.81 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. Key areas such as social security and employment saw a 10% increase in expenditure, marking the highest growth rate in three years for several categories [3] Future Fiscal Policy - The Ministry of Finance plans to advance the issuance of new local government bond quotas for 2026 to support major projects and stabilize local fiscal operations. This includes early allocation of quotas to facilitate project funding and enhance project quality through improved review mechanisms [4]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported that the general public budget revenue for the first three quarters of 2023 reached 16.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [1][3] - Tax revenue, which is the main component of fiscal income, grew by 0.7% year-on-year, with significant contributions from value-added tax and corporate income tax [5][7] - Public budget expenditure for the same period was 20.81 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.1%, with notable increases in social security, education, and health spending [8] Revenue Analysis - The general public budget revenue totaled 163,876 billion yuan, with tax revenue at 132,664 billion yuan and non-tax revenue at 31,212 billion yuan [1] - Tax revenue growth was driven by a 3.6% increase in domestic value-added tax, which is indicative of the performance in the industrial and service sectors [5] - Corporate income tax saw a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, indicating a recovery in industrial profits as market vitality improves [7] Expenditure Analysis - Public budget expenditure reached 208,064 billion yuan, with central government expenditure at 31,008 billion yuan (up 7.3%) and local government expenditure at 177,056 billion yuan (up 2.4%) [1] - Key areas of expenditure included social security (up 10%), education (up 5.4%), and health (up 4.7%), marking the highest growth rates for these sectors in three years [8] Debt Management - The Ministry of Finance plans to continue the practice of pre-allocating the new local government debt limit for 2026, which is expected to support major projects and stabilize the government bond market [9][10] - This approach aims to enhance the completeness of local budget preparation and ensure timely funding for key projects [9]

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal revenue growth in China has significantly improved in Q3 2025, indicating a stable and upward trend in the overall economic operation, with key areas of fiscal expenditure reaching the highest levels in nearly three years [1][5]. Fiscal Revenue Summary - In the first three quarters of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 163,876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%. Tax revenue was 132,664 billion yuan, growing by 0.7%, while non-tax revenue decreased by 0.4% to 31,212 billion yuan [1][5]. - The quarterly breakdown shows a decline of 1.1% in Q1, a recovery to 0.6% growth in Q2, and a notable increase of 2.5% in Q3, reflecting a significant improvement [5]. - Among the tax revenues, the domestic value-added tax, which reflects the performance of the industrial and service sectors, grew by 3.6%, while corporate income tax increased by 0.8%, showing a recovery in industrial profits [5][6]. Fiscal Expenditure Summary - Total general public budget expenditure for the first three quarters was 208,064 billion yuan, marking a 3.1% increase year-on-year. Key areas such as social security and employment, education, health, science and technology, energy conservation and environmental protection, and culture and sports saw growth rates of 10%, 5.4%, 4.7%, 6.5%, 8.8%, and 4% respectively, all reaching the highest levels in three years [9][10]. - Government fund budget expenditure reached 74,900 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 23.9%, driven by accelerated use of bond funds [11][12]. Measures to Support Economic Recovery - To consolidate the economic recovery, the Ministry of Finance announced two measures: allocating 500 billion yuan from the local government debt limit to support local finances, an increase of 100 billion yuan from the previous year, and the early issuance of the 2026 new local government debt limit [3][14][17]. - The allocation aims to enhance local financial capacity and support effective investment projects, particularly in economically significant provinces [15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The suspension of the "reciprocal tariff" for 90 days has been postponed from July 9 to August 1, keeping investors' risk appetite at a high level. Amid the rising expectation of the second supply - side reform, corresponding investment opportunities are worth exploring. In the equity market, pay attention to industries with low capacity utilization; in the bond market, uncertainty may bring some benefits, but the downward space of interest - rate bonds is limited; for commodities, gold is expected to benefit from the increased risk - aversion sentiment and has short - term long - making opportunities [12]. 3. Summary by Related Information Stock Market - In the past week (20250630 - 20250706), U.S. stocks rose, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changing by 1.62%, 1.72%, and 2.30% respectively, while the Nasdaq China Technology Index fell by 0.60%. The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.52% [2]. - Most A - share sectors or industries rose. The Wind All - A Index rose 1.22%. From a style perspective, in the Shanghai market, blue - chips rose and growth stocks fell; in the Shenzhen market, both blue - chips and growth stocks rose, and the North Securities 50 Index fell. Among 30 CITIC industries, 25 rose, led by steel, banking, building materials, and medicine with weekly gains of over 3.50% [3]. Bond Market - In the past week (20250630 - 20250706), the price of interest - rate bonds rose slightly, and the yield curve steepened. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.05%, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond fell 0.29 BP to 1.6433%. Most maturity yields declined, with larger declines in maturities of 6 months and less [4]. - The capital price dropped significantly, and the central bank conducted a net withdrawal in the open - market operations. As of July 4, 2025, R007 was 1.4881%, down 43.20 BP from June 27, 2025; DR007 was 1.4222%, down 27.46 BP. The central bank net withdrew 1375.3 billion yuan in the past week [5]. - The bond - market leverage level decreased. The 7 - day capital cost is higher than the 5 - year Treasury bond yield. The trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase (5 - day average) decreased from 7.77 trillion yuan on June 27, 2025, to 7.60 trillion yuan on July 4, 2025 [6]. - U.S. Treasury yields increased, and the curve shifted upward. As of July 4, 2025, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose 6 BP to 4.35%. Yields of all maturities increased, with larger increases in maturities of 7 years and less [7][8]. Foreign Exchange and Commodity Market - The U.S. dollar depreciated, and the price of gold rose. In the past week (20250630 - 20250706), the U.S. dollar index fell 0.28%. The price of London gold spot rose 1.84% to $3331.90 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures rose 1.94% to $3332.50 per ounce. Domestic Shanghai gold also rose [9]. Policy and Events - The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission may raise expectations for the second - round supply - side reform. The meeting mentioned governing low - price and disorderly competition and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity. Industries such as food manufacturing, chemical raw materials and products manufacturing have low capacity utilization [10]. - The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the U.S. officially came into effect, which may increase the U.S. fiscal deficit. The act involves large - scale tax cuts, structural adjustment of fiscal expenditures, and raising the debt ceiling. The CBO estimated that it will add $3.25 trillion in deficits in the next 10 years [11].

Core Insights - The latest VAT invoice data from the State Taxation Administration indicates that the real economy continues to grow, with sustained innovation and increasing sales revenue across multiple sectors in May [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - In May, the sales revenue of the manufacturing sector accounted for 30.1% of the total sales of national enterprises, providing significant support for economic growth [1] - The sales revenue of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.5% year-on-year, indicating robust performance [1] Group 2: Sector-Specific Growth - Notable growth was observed in specific segments of the manufacturing sector, with sales revenue for railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment increasing by 15.1%, and for computer and communication equipment by 13.1%, while electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing saw an 8.6% increase [1]

Group 1 - Shanghai's GDP reached 1.27 trillion yuan in Q1, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [1] - The information transmission, software, and IT services sector contributed over 60% to the city's GDP growth, with a value added of 172.61 billion yuan, growing 13.0% year-on-year [1] - The financial sector added 218.33 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.4%, contributing 4.3 percentage points above the overall GDP growth rate [1] Group 2 - Shanghai's industrial production accelerated, with an industrial value added growth of 3.6% and total industrial output growth of 3.5%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - Key industries such as computer, communication, and electronic equipment manufacturing saw a production value increase of 23.3%, while transportation equipment manufacturing grew by 22.6% [1] - The three leading industries—artificial intelligence, biomedicine, and integrated circuits—saw a manufacturing output growth of 7.2%, outpacing the overall industrial output growth by 3.7 percentage points [2] Group 3 - The artificial intelligence manufacturing sector grew by 13.2%, integrated circuits by 8.9%, and biomedicine by 2.8% [2] - New industrial products showed rapid growth, with industrial robot production increasing by 18.6% and semiconductor storage disk production by 18.4% [2] - Investment in emerging sectors like integrated circuits and biomedicine surged, with electronic information product manufacturing investment up by 37.6% and biomedicine investment by 17.6%, driving overall manufacturing investment growth of 23.4% [2]