Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Budweiser APAC (01876) is expected to see a 25% year-on-year decline in EBITDA for Q4 2025, which is 12% lower than market consensus, with a 4% year-on-year drop in sales [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Budweiser China is the main drag on performance, with sales and EBITDA declining by 11% and 42% year-on-year respectively, primarily due to increased promotional activities and significant deleveraging effects [1] - Budweiser Korea's Q4 2025 sales and EBITDA are expected to decline by 1% and 6% year-on-year, respectively, outperforming industry growth, impacted by a one-time $49 million drag from a tax dispute with the Korean government [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Budweiser China has shown signs of improvement in sales momentum starting Q4 2025, with plans to reignite growth in FY2026 by increasing investments in at-home consumption distribution capabilities [1] - The company forecasts a 3.4% and 5.4% year-on-year growth in sales and EBITDA for 2026, respectively [1] Group 3: Dividend Policy - Budweiser has announced a dividend payout of $750 million for FY2025, with a payout ratio of 150% and a dividend yield of 5.7% [1] - The company is expected to maintain its current policy of sustaining or increasing the annual dividend per share, which implies a projected dividend yield of 5.7% based on a current 19x P/E ratio for 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price reaction of Budweiser APAC after the announcement of Q4 2025 results was weak, attributed to sluggish performance in China, management's cautious outlook on the recovery of the dining channel in 2026, and uncertainties surrounding the dividend plan [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Budweiser APAC's management is focusing on home and O2O (online-to-offline) channels, but the recovery is expected to be gradual [1] - The company anticipates that sales recovery may be offset by additional investments and reductions in average selling prices [1] Group 2: Financial Forecasts - Citi has downgraded Budweiser APAC's earnings forecasts for the fiscal years 2026-2027 [1] - Despite the downgrade, the valuation has been moved forward by one year, maintaining the target price at HKD 9 [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The outlook for the dining industry remains uncertain, with the company waiting for clear catalysts [1] - Positive news regarding the dining industry or O2O channels could present upside risks [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 8.90, indicating a potential upside of 13.7% from the current price of HKD 7.83 [1][7][13]. Core Insights - The Chinese market is still in need of recovery, but the attractive dividend yield provides defensive value. The target price has been slightly lowered due to soft demand in the ready-to-drink segment and industry competition, while the overall financial health supports dividend payments [2][7]. - The company experienced a 4.2% year-on-year decline in revenue for Q4 2025, primarily due to a downturn in the Chinese market, despite strong double-digit growth in the Indian market. Adjusted EBITDA fell by 24.7% [6][7]. - Management aims to reignite growth in the Chinese market by focusing on expanding non-ready-to-drink channels, optimizing the product mix, and increasing digital investments [6][7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for 2026 are set at USD 6.07 billion, reflecting a 5.3% year-on-year growth, while net profit is expected to reach USD 679 million, a significant recovery from the previous year's loss [3][14]. - The adjusted EBITDA for 2026 is forecasted at USD 1.71 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 28.2% [8][14]. - The company’s dividend yield is projected to be over 5%, providing a cushion against downside risks [7][14]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of +3.16%, with a 52-week high of HKD 9.74 and a low of HKD 7.47, indicating some volatility in the market [5][6]. - The stock price is currently trading below its 200-day moving average of HKD 8.10, suggesting potential for recovery [5][6]. Regional Performance - In the Asia Pacific West region, revenue declined by 5.6% in Q4, with price pressures outweighing volume growth. The Chinese market specifically saw an 11.4% revenue decline, driven by both volume and price decreases [6][7]. - Conversely, the Asia Pacific East region, particularly South Korea, showed resilience with minor revenue declines and effective price management [6][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Budweiser APAC reported a decline in its 2025 performance metrics, with Q4 revenue, sales volume, average price, and EBITDA decreasing by 4.2%, 0.7%, 3.5%, and 24.7% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting organic growth rates [1] - In China, the revenue, sales volume, average price, and EBITDA also saw significant declines of 11.4%, 3.9%, 7.7%, and 42.3% year-on-year [1] - The report suggests that the company's performance continues to adjust in line with expectations, and it is prioritizing growth for 2026, indicating a potential bottoming out [1] Group 2 - The company is expected to moderately increase its investments, leading to a downward revision of the 2026 EBITDA forecast by 7.1% to $1.593 billion, while introducing a 2027 EBITDA estimate of $1.637 billion [1] - Due to the support from the dividend yield, the target share price is maintained at HKD 9.8, with a rating of "outperforming the industry" [1]

该行称，百威亚太公布2025年第四季业绩后股价反应疲弱，可能由于中国业务疲软、管理层对2026年餐 饮渠道复苏持保守态度，以及股息计划存在不确定性。该行认为餐饮业复苏前景不明朗，尽管认同管理 层聚焦家用及O2O渠道的策略，但预期复苏将是渐进过程，且销量回升可能被额外投资及平均售价下调 所抵销。 里昂发布研报称，下调百威亚太(01876)2026-2027财年盈利预测，但同时将估值前移一年，故目标价维 持9港元。该行指，仍在等待明确催化剂，餐饮业或O2O渠道若传出好消息，可能构成上行风险，惟需 时等待。维持"跑赢大市"评级。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，里昂发布研报称，下调百威亚太(01876)2026-2027财年盈利预测，但同时将估值前 移一年，故目标价维持9港元。该行指，仍在等待明确催化剂，餐饮业或O2O渠道若传出好消息，可能 构成上行风险，惟需时等待。维持"跑赢大市"评级。 该行称，百威亚太公布2025年第四季业绩后股价反应疲弱，可能由于中国业务疲软、管理层对2026年餐 饮渠道复苏持保守态度，以及股息计划存在不确定性。该行认为餐饮业复苏前景不明朗，尽管认同管理 层聚焦家用及O2O渠道的策略，但预期复苏将是渐进过程，且销量回升可能被额外投资及平均售价下调 所抵销。 ...

摩根大通发表研报指，百威亚太公布去年末季收入为10.73亿美元(有机收入按年跌4.2%)，相对市场预期 为10.8亿美元，大摩预期为10.7亿美元；经调整EBITDA为1.67亿美元(有机收入按年跌24.7%)，低于市 场预期的1.83亿美元，亦低于大摩预期的2.02亿美元；经调整净亏损1200万美元。期内，集团在中国市 场销售下跌11.4%，销量下跌3.9%(跌幅收窄，市场份额回稳)，有机平均售价按年下跌7.7%，主因贸易 渠道及居家/新兴渠道投资增加。该行予集团目标价9港元，评级"增持"。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876.HK) with a current price of HKD 7.83 [1] Core Insights - Budweiser APAC reported a revenue of USD 5.764 billion for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.1%. The normalized EBITDA was USD 1.588 billion, down 9.8% year-on-year. In Q4 2025, revenue was USD 1.073 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 4.2% [5] - The company plans to distribute dividends of USD 750 million for 2025, unchanged from 2024 [5] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - For 2025, Budweiser APAC achieved a total sales volume of 796.58 million hectoliters, down 6.0% year-on-year. The revenue per hectoliter for the year decreased by 0.2% [5] - In Q4 2025, the sales volume was 135.18 million hectoliters, with a slight decline of 0.7% year-on-year. Revenue per hectoliter fell by 3.5% [5] Regional Performance - In the Western Asia-Pacific region, Q4 2025 sales volume grew by 0.1% year-on-year, but revenue and revenue per hectoliter declined by 5.6% and 5.7%, respectively. Normalized EBITDA in this region fell by 40.0% year-on-year [6] - The Indian market showed strong growth, with high-end and super high-end products accounting for over two-thirds of total revenue, contributing more than 20% to revenue growth [6] - In the Eastern Asia-Pacific region, Q4 2025 revenue declined by 0.6% year-on-year, with sales volume down 3.7%. Revenue per hectoliter increased by 3.2% [6] China Market Focus - The Chinese market remains under pressure, with Q4 2025 sales volume down 3.9% year-on-year, primarily due to weak on-the-go channels and delayed shipments related to the Lunar New Year [7] - The company is increasing investments in channel and product mix expansion, focusing on high-end and digital channel strategies for 2026 [8] Profitability Forecast - The report lowers the net profit forecast for 2026 and 2027 to USD 621 million and USD 680 million, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 9% and 7% [8] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 21x for 2026, 20x for 2027, and 18x for 2028, indicating a favorable outlook for the company's competitive advantage in high-end and super high-end segments [8]

Market Overview - On February 12, Hong Kong stocks opened lower and closed down, with the Hang Seng Index falling 233 points (0.8%) to close at 27,032 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 91 points (1.6%) to close at 5,408 points, with total market turnover increasing to HKD 238.7 billion[1] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 4.57 billion, down from the previous day's net inflow of HKD 4.82 billion[1] Company Performance - Tencent (700 HK) fell 2.3% to a six-month low, with a year-to-date decline of over 8% due to perceived lag in AI development compared to competitors like ByteDance and Alibaba[1] - SenseTime (20 HK) surged 6.7%, while Zhizhu (2513 HK) rose 28.7% after releasing a new flagship model[1] - Lenovo Group (992 HK) reported a 36% year-on-year increase in adjusted net profit for Q3, yet its stock price fell 4.6%[1] U.S. Market Insights - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased from 232,000 to 227,000, slightly above expectations, while continuing claims rose to 1.862 million, exceeding the expected 1.85 million[2] - The Dow Jones Index fell 669 points (1.3%) to 49,451 points, the Nasdaq dropped 469 points (2.0%) to 22,597 points, and the S&P 500 declined by 108 points to 6,832 points[2] - Gold and silver prices fell by 3% and 8%, respectively, as investors awaited inflation data[2] Macro Dynamics - The China Passenger Car Association reported a 13.9% year-on-year decline in retail sales of passenger cars in January, with new energy vehicle sales down 20.0%[3] - The decline was attributed to market factors and adjustments in the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy[3] Industry Trends - In the consumer sector, Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) reported a 4.2% year-on-year decline in revenue for Q4, with an adjusted EBITDA drop of 24.7%, leading to a 5.2% stock price decrease[4] - The healthcare sector saw the Hang Seng Healthcare Index drop 1.4%, with WuXi Biologics (2269 HK) down 0.1% despite strong project acquisition capabilities[4] - The renewable energy and utilities sector experienced gains, with notable increases in stock prices for Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) by 12.4% and Harbin Electric (1133 HK) by 13.7%[5]

Core Viewpoint - CICC has lowered Budweiser APAC's (01876) 2026 EBITDA forecast by 7.1% to $1.593 billion and introduced a 2027 EBITDA forecast of $1.637 billion, maintaining a target price of HKD 9.80 per share, indicating a potential upside of 25.2% from the current price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's 4Q25 performance was in line with expectations, with revenue, sales volume, ASP, and EBITDA declining by 4.2%, 0.7%, 3.5%, and 24.7% year-on-year, respectively [2] - In China, 4Q25 revenue, sales volume, ASP, and EBITDA saw declines of 11.4%, 3.9%, 7.7%, and 42.3% year-on-year, respectively, indicating continued adjustments in performance [2] Group 2: Regional Analysis - In China, 4Q25 sales volume decreased by 3.9% due to weak performance in key channels such as dining and nightlife, while ASP fell by 7.7% due to increased investment in off-premise channels [3] - In the Eastern Asia region, 4Q25 sales volume declined by 1.3% due to a weak consumption environment in South Korea, although ASP increased by 2.5% due to price hikes in core categories [4] - The Indian market continues to show strong growth, helping to offset some pressures from the Chinese market [4] Group 3: Strategic Outlook - The company is prioritizing growth in 2026, adopting a proactive approach to market challenges, with expectations of stabilization as the industry’s on-premise channel share is at a historical low [5] - The company may release stronger-than-industry elasticity if the on-premise channel recovers, supported by macroeconomic stabilization and strategic adjustments [5]