证券研究报告 公司研究 [Tabl 点评报告 e_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 中国石油(601857.SH) ➢ 油气板块贡献显著，助力业绩持续增长。油价端，2025 年一季度国际 油价整体呈现先跌后涨的两阶段态势，第一阶段受特朗普新政、美国 计划提升原油产量、俄乌冲突缓和等因素影响，国际油价震荡下跌； 第二阶段受美国加强对伊朗和委内瑞拉等产油国的制裁影响，国际油 价有所反弹。2025 年一季度布伦特平均油价为 75 美元/桶，同比下降 8%，环比增长 1%。分板块盈利看，油气及新能源、炼化及新材料、 销售和天然气销售板块分别实现经营利润人民币 461、54、50、135 亿元，同比+30、-27、-17、+12 亿元，环比+306、-7、+14、-152 亿 元。总体来看，公司油气板块利润贡献依旧突出，炼油与化工板块毛 利较去年同期均有所下滑，炼化板块整体承压。 ➢ 降本增效成果突出，上游板块经营效益逆势增长。2025 年一季度公司 坚持高效勘探，油气产量稳步增长，新能源业务持续突破。油气方 面，2025 年第一季度，公司实现油气当量产量 467.0 百万桶，同比增 长 ...

2025 年 4 月 30 日 公司研究 25Q1 业绩稳步提升，全产业链优势引领穿越油价周期 ——中国石油（601857.SH/0857.HK）2025 年一季报点评 A 股：买入（维持） 执业证书编号：S0930523070003 021-52523800 caijiahao@ebscn.com 分析师：王礼沫 执业证书编号：S0930524040002 010-56513142 wanglimo@ebscn.com 市场数据 | 总股本(亿股) | 1830.21 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿元)： | 14531.87 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 7.33/10.46 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 5.02% | 当前价：7.94 元 H 股：买入（维持） 当前价：5.80 港元 作者 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 分析师：蔡嘉豪 股价相对走势 -26% -14% -3% 9% 21% 04/24 07/24 10/24 01/25 中国石油 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- ...

564只个股今日获机构买入型评级，11股最新评级被调高，38股机构首次关注。 行业来看，医药生物行业最受青睐，东阿阿胶、迈瑞医疗等50只个股上榜机构买入评级榜。电子、机械 设备等行业也较受机构关注，分别有49只、47只个股上榜。（数据宝） 机构今日买入型评级个股 | 代码 | 简称 | 买入评级 | 今日涨跌 | 动态市盈 | 行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 家数 | 幅（%） | 率（倍） | | | 600519 | 贵州茅台 | 11 | 0.19 | 18.10 | 食品饮料 | | 600809 | 山西汾酒 | 7 | 0.55 | 9.36 | 食品饮料 | | 600938 | 中国海油 | 6 | -0.36 | 8.13 | 石油石化 | | 601233 | 桐昆股份 | 6 | 3.03 | 10.71 | 石油石化 | | 600398 | 海澜之家 | 6 | 5.46 | 10.66 | 纺织服饰 | | 002244 | 滨江集团 | 6 | 3.08 | 8.26 | 房地产 | | 002345 | 潮宏基 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月30日 中国海油（600938.SH） 优于大市 油气产量稳增长，2025 年第一季度实现归母净利润 365 亿元 公司 2025 年第一季度实现归母净利润 365 亿元，盈利韧性凸显，业绩超预 期。公司 2025 年第一季度实现营业收入 1068.6 亿元（同比-4.1%，环比 +13.1%），归母净利润 365.3 亿元（同比-8.0%，环比+71.9%），扣非 归母净利润 370.3 亿元（同比-6.2%，环比+111.2%）。2025 年第一季度 布伦特原油期货均价为 75.0 美元/桶（同比-8.3%），公司受益于油气 产销量上升、降本增效、人民币贬值、实现气价上升等因素，部分抵销 了实现油价下跌的影响，业绩超预期。 公司油气净产量稳步增长，成本管控成效显著。公司 2025 年第一季度油气 销售收入为 882.7 亿元（同比-1.9%，环比+4.9%），油气净产量达到 188.8 百万桶油当量（同比+4.8%），其中国内净产量 130.8 百万桶油当量（同比 +6.2%），占比 69.3%，主要得益于渤中 19-6 等油气田贡献，海外净产量 58.0 百万桶油当量（ ...

25Q1 油气当量产量维持高增，天然气产量同比增长10.2%公司持续加快上产步伐，25Q1 实现净产量 188.8 百万桶油当量，同比增长4.8%。其中，原油产量同比+3.4%，天然气产量同比+10.2%；中国净产 量130.8百万桶油当量，同比+6.2%，主要得益于渤中19-6 等油气田的贡献；海外净产量58 百万桶油当 量，同比+1.9%，主要由于巴西Mero2 等项目的贡献。实现价格方面，25Q1 公司平均实现油价72.65 美 元/桶，同比-7.7%，平均实现天然气价格为7.78 美元/千立方英尺，同比+1.2%。2025Q1，公司资本支出 277 亿元，有力支撑新项目建设和产量增长。 25Q1 公司共获得2 个新发现，并成功评价14 个含油气构造。其中，惠州19-6油田探明地质储量超1 亿 吨油当量，涠洲10-5 油气田展示了北部湾盆地潜山领域广阔的勘探前景；成功评价绥中36-1 南，有望 成为中型油田。期内，番禺10/11 区块联合开发项目、东方29-1 气田开发项目、渤中26-6 油田开发项目 （一期）、文昌19-1 油田二期项目以及巴西Buzios7 项目等多个新项目已成功投产。其他新项目正在 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [1] Core Views - The company's performance demonstrates resilience during periods of oil price fluctuations, with significant cost reduction and efficiency improvements [6][11] - CNOOC's net profit for Q1 2025 is projected to be 366 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7.95% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 71.84% [5][11] - The company continues to enhance its production capacity and maintain cost advantages, with a focus on high-quality development and stable production growth [10][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, CNOOC achieved total revenue of 1,069 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.14% but an increase of 13.09% compared to the previous quarter [5] - The average realized oil price was 72.65 USD per barrel, down 7.7% year-on-year, while natural gas prices increased by 1.2% to 7.78 USD per thousand cubic feet [7] Production and Exploration - CNOOC's net production in Q1 2025 reached 188.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, with natural gas production growing by 10.2% [7] - The company made two new discoveries and successfully evaluated 14 oil and gas structures during the quarter, indicating strong exploration potential [8] Cost Management - The company reported a decrease in oil production costs to 27.03 USD per barrel, down 2.0% year-on-year, showcasing its effective cost control measures [9] - CNOOC's operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was 573 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% but maintaining a high level of cash flow [6] Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - CNOOC plans to maintain high capital expenditures in 2025, with a budget of 1250-1350 billion yuan to support stable production growth [10] - The company aims for a production target of 760-780 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2025, with a focus on sustainable growth in the following years [10][11]

一项竞争性要约收购计划，正在以更加戏剧性发展，演绎整个A股历史上前所未见的生死时速戏码！ 4月28日晚间，油气开采运营企业ST新潮（600777）(600777.SH)发布了一则"关于预计无法按期披露定 期报告的风险提示性公告"。 该公告称，原定于2025年4月30日披露2024年年度报告及2025年第一季度报告，因定期报告涉及的部分 财务信息需要进一步补充提供，公司预计无法在法定期限内(即4月30日前)披露年报。 按照交易所上市规则，若ST新潮在4月30日前确系无法披露定期报告，那么公司将从5月6日，即劳动节 假期后首个交易日起停牌。若依然持续无法披露年报，那么公司股票将在7月7日被标注退市风险警示， 若此后依然不披露，则将在9月8日被交易所采取强制退市举措，股票届时将进入退市整理期。 值得注意的是，目前ST新潮正面临浙江金帝石油勘探开发有限公司(以下简称"金帝石油")和B股上市公 司伊泰B(900948.SH)——两方势力对公司竞争性要约收购的关键时刻。而这一突如其来的退市风险，给 本已胜券在握的伊泰B要约收购方案，带来极大的不确定性。 考虑4月30日将是ST新潮可能长期停牌的最后一个交易日，ST新潮的所 ...

此外，阎洪涛还表示，公司始终坚持全球配置油气资产的原则，如若国际油价继续下跌，对于中国海油这种有大 量现金流、桶油成本较低且利润率较高的公司而言，或是较好的并购机会。公司将根据彼时的市场情况、国际形 势，以及公司的技术专长和管理能力，具体分析并决策，按照市场运行原则，寻求调整和优化公司油气资产组合 的机会。 "基于对全球石油供需长期情况的预判，我们并不悲观。低油价不会影响中国海油的长期发展战略，公司2025年的 投资计划和产量目标指引也不会调整。"阎洪涛指出，当前低油价是受特朗普政府相关关税政策影响，市场预期未 来全球经济下行将影响石油需求，"低油价是结果，而非原因。"基于此，他认为，低油价不会造成石油行业在全 球所有行业中地位变弱，也不代表石油公司的经济性、地位在全球范围内下降，特朗普关税政策对全球的影响 是"一贯且连续的"。 面对国际油价低位震荡现状，阎洪涛表示，中国海油将继续坚持低成本策略，始终在全球主要石油公司中保持桶 油成本优势。"在高油价时不盲目乐观，不大手笔花钱、增加桶油成本；低油价时也不悲观，要坚守成本优势。" 不过，油气销量上升，以及公司对桶油成本的控制一定程度抵消了油价下跌影响。今年一季度 ...

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, despite an increase in oil and gas production, highlighting the impact of falling international oil prices on financial performance [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, CNOOC achieved operating revenue of 106.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 36.56 billion yuan, down 7.9% year-on-year [1] - The average realized oil price was 72.65 USD/barrel, a decrease of 7.7% year-on-year, while the average realized gas price increased by 1.2% to 7.78 USD/thousand cubic feet [2] Production and Exploration - CNOOC's net production reached 188.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year, with domestic production rising by 6.2% [1][2] - The company made two new discoveries and successfully evaluated 14 oil and gas structures during the quarter [2] - Significant contributions to production came from the Bohai region and overseas projects, particularly from Brazil's Mero2 [1][2] Capital Expenditure and Projects - Capital expenditure for the quarter was approximately 27.71 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.5% year-on-year [2] - Several new projects, including the Panyu 10/11 block and the Wenchang 19-1 oil field, have been successfully put into production [2][3] - The Wenchang 9-7 oil field development project was announced to have commenced production, with an expected peak output of about 12,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2027 [3][4] Future Outlook - CNOOC's controlling shareholder announced plans to increase shareholdings in the company by 2 to 4 billion yuan over the next 12 months, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term investment value [3] - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency and achieve its annual production and operational targets [3]

Core Viewpoint - ST New潮 is facing significant challenges, including the inability to disclose its 2024 financial report on time and the looming risk of delisting, primarily due to internal control issues and a complex ownership structure that has led to a lack of actual control over its assets [1][29]. Financial Performance - ST New潮 has reported impressive financial figures, including overseas oil and gas assets valued at over 30 billion, a net profit of 7.376 billion as of September 2024, and retained earnings of 6.947 billion [1]. - However, approximately 99% of these assets and profits are trapped in its U.S. subsidiaries, with the domestic parent company failing to distribute dividends for 15 years and accumulating significant debt [1]. Corporate Governance Issues - The company has been under scrutiny for its internal control deficiencies, leading to its designation as ST (Special Treatment) and increasing the risk of delisting [1][29]. - The lack of a real controlling shareholder and the ongoing governance disputes have resulted in a complex web of ownership and financial maneuvers that have left the company vulnerable [1][11]. Acquisition Interest - Despite its challenges, ST New潮 has attracted interest from major capital players, with significant bids for acquisition, including a recent 11.8 billion cash offer from Inner Mongolia's coal giant Yitai Group [4][18]. - The competition for ST New潮's assets highlights the perceived value of its overseas oil and gas holdings, despite the inherent risks associated with its governance and financial structure [4][23]. Historical Context - ST New潮 has a long history, originally established as a textile factory in 1985, and has undergone multiple transformations, ultimately becoming a "super shell" in the A-share market [5][6]. - The company has experienced numerous significant equity transfers and asset maneuvers, totaling over 15 major transactions involving more than 15 billion [9][11]. Regulatory Challenges - The complexity of ST New潮's asset control chain has raised concerns among regulators, particularly regarding the transparency and veracity of its overseas operations [24][32]. - The company's recent internal control audit revealed that only 18% of its overseas assets were subject to review, raising alarms about the reliability of its financial reporting [24][27]. Future Outlook - The potential acquisition of ST New潮 poses a high-risk gamble for interested parties, as the ability to effectively manage and repatriate its overseas assets remains uncertain [30][32]. - The ongoing governance issues and the intricate ownership structure could hinder any new owner's ability to realize the value of ST New潮's substantial overseas assets [30][32].