交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-22原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2512： 1.基本面：美国总统特朗普与俄罗斯总统普京原定举行峰会的计划周二被搁置，因莫斯科拒绝立即在 乌克兰停火的提议，令谈判前景蒙阴；美国能源部表示，它正在寻求购买100万桶原油，并将其交付给 战略石油储备(SPR)，以利用相对较低的油价帮助补充库存；特朗普回绝了民主党国会领袖提出的举行 会晤的要求，称除非政府停摆结束；中性 2.基差：10月21日，阿曼原油现货价为62.47美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为61.24美元/桶，基差 29.53元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至10月17日当周API原油 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has signed a framework agreement with GEOJADE RESOURCES PTE. LTD. for the exclusive sale of crude oil from its Iraq project, which aims to optimize sales and manage risks associated with price fluctuations and payment timelines [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Related Transactions - The company has signed a series of contracts with the Iraqi government and national oil companies for upstream oil and gas projects in Iraq, focusing on the extraction of Basra crude oil [2]. - The company has appointed GRL as the exclusive seller of all Basra crude oil extracted from the Iraq project, which will help the company concentrate on upstream development and manage buyer credit risks [2]. 2. Introduction of Related Parties - The largest shareholder of the company, Guangxi Zhenghe Industrial Group Co., Ltd., holds 12.25% of the company's equity, with HUILING (Xu Ling) being the actual controller [3]. - GRL is a private limited company established in Singapore with a registered capital of $23 million and specializes in the trade of crude oil and other commodities [4]. 3. Financial and Credit Status of GRL - As of September 15, 2025, GRL has total assets of approximately $57.56 million and net assets of about $22.92 million, with revenues of $35.76 million and operating profits of $1.1 million for the year-to-date [4]. - GRL has received a trade credit line of $200 million from Bank of China, indicating sufficient capacity to fulfill the transaction [6]. 4. Main Content of the Framework Agreement - The agreement stipulates that GRL will be the exclusive seller of all crude oil extracted by the company from the Iraq project, with pricing and payment terms following international market practices [9]. - GRL is required to pay a $5 million annual delivery deposit before the first shipment [9]. 5. Purpose and Impact of the Related Transaction - The transaction aims to help the company focus on upstream development, reduce risks related to price fluctuations and payment timelines, and effectively manage buyer credit risks [10]. - The agreement is deemed beneficial for the company and its shareholders, particularly minority shareholders, with no adverse effects on their rights [10]. 6. Review Procedures for the Related Transaction - The independent directors unanimously approved the agreement, stating it effectively mitigates risks and supports the company's core business [11]. - The board of directors also approved the agreement with full attendance and unanimous support [11].

Core Viewpoint - The company has signed a series of contracts with the Iraqi government and various national oil companies to invest in upstream oil and gas blocks and supporting infrastructure projects in Iraq, focusing on the extraction and sale of Basra crude oil [1] Group 1: Project Details - The project involves the extraction of different grades of Basra crude oil, including light, medium, and heavy varieties, in accordance with local regulations [1] - The company has appointed GRL as the exclusive seller of all Basra crude oil extracted from the project, ensuring timely sales and optimized pricing [1] Group 2: Strategic Benefits - This partnership allows the company to concentrate on upstream development, reducing risks associated with price fluctuations and payment timelines [1] - GRL, with its experienced management team from leading international oil companies, provides extensive marketing channels and risk control capabilities, enhancing the management of buyer credit risk [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil prices remained mainly volatile, rising at the end of the week and then falling back. After the OPEC+ production increase in August, the market also anticipates a continued increase in September. The supply side has relatively high certainty. As the peak demand season approaches, major mainstream institutions have significant differences in their expectations for the peak season, but currently, the peak - season demand cannot be disproven. Subsequently, the market inventory situation should be continuously and closely monitored. If inventory continues to accumulate, the market's peak - season demand expectations will be disappointed, and oil prices are expected to return to the trading logic of supply surplus. Overall, at present, crude oil has insufficient drivers and may mainly experience a weak rebound. In the medium - to - long term, it is advisable to try short positions at high prices [24][25] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Indicators and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Key Event Review - **Fundamentals**: Iraq set different official selling prices for August - bound Basra Medium crude oil to different regions; Saudi Arabia's crude oil production increased by 173,000 barrels per day in June, and OPEC's crude oil production increased by 220,000 barrels per day; the US API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 11 was 839,000 barrels; the UAE's Fujairah Port's refined oil inventory decreased by 1.131 million barrels; the US EIA reported changes in multiple indicators such as crude oil exports, domestic production, and inventories; Indonesia's biodiesel consumption reached 7.42 million kiloliters as of July 16; the US oil drilling rig count decreased to 422 as of July 18 [10][15] - **Macroeconomic**: China - US trade teams are accelerating the implementation of the London framework results; China's exports to the US decreased by 9.9% in the first half of the year, and imports decreased by 7.7%; China's June social消费品 retail总额 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and industrial added value increased by 6.8%; the US June unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.9%, and the unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.7%; the US June PPI annual rate was 2.3% [14][18] - **Geopolitical Conflicts**: Trump may announce a new plan to arm Ukraine, including offensive weapons; the US and European powers set the end of August as the deadline for reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran; Iran's foreign minister said Iran is waiting for the US to show "real determination" [19][22] - **Institutional Forecasts**: Goldman Sachs raised its price forecast for Brent and WTI crude oil in the second half of 2025 but maintained its forecast of a supply surplus, expecting prices to fall in 2026 [22] 3.1.2 Next Week's Core Indicator Calendar - Key indicators to be released next week include the US API and EIA crude oil inventories, the Eurozone's European Central Bank deposit mechanism rate, the US initial jobless claims, the US durable goods orders month - on - month rate, and the US oil drilling rig count [23] 3.2 Price Basic Data 3.2.1 Crude Oil Basic Price - Provided price data for Brent, WTI, SC main contract, and Middle - East main contract from July 2024 to July 2025, along with week - on - week, month - on - month, and year - on - year changes [32] 3.2.2 Crude Oil Forward Price - Presented forward curves for Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil [55] 3.2.3 Crude Oil Monthly Spread - Included daily data on monthly spreads for Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil [57] 3.2.4 Crude Oil Disk Spread - Showed daily data on spreads such as Brent - WTI, Brent - Oman, and Brent - SC [65] 3.2.5 Main Oil Type Premiums and Discounts - Provided monthly data on premiums and discounts for various oil types from different countries to Asia and other regions, as well as the Shandong refinery's crude oil arrival premium and discount [71][84] 3.2.6 US Dollar Index - Displayed the relationship between the US dollar index and WTI crude oil price [86] 3.3 World Crude Oil Supply and Demand 3.3.1 OPEC Crude Oil Supply and Demand Forecast - Provided OPEC's world supply - demand balance sheet from 2022 to 2026, including production, demand, and inventory data in different regions; also presented the quarterly supply - demand differences and OPEC production balance values [95][106] 3.3.2 EIA Crude Oil Supply and Demand Forecast - Provided EIA's world supply - demand balance sheet in July 2025, including production, demand, inventory extraction, and end - of - period inventory data; also showed the quarterly supply - demand differences [108][111] 3.3.3 OPEC Major Oil - Producing Countries' Production and Export - Showed monthly production data for OPEC major oil - producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran, as well as Iran's crude oil export data [115][119]

Group 1 - Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) has set the official selling price for Basrah Medium crude oil for August at a premium of $1.35 per barrel over the average price of Oman/Dubai for sales to Asia [1] - The official selling price for Basrah Medium crude oil for sales to Europe is set at a discount of $1.70 per barrel compared to the benchmark Brent crude oil [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) has set the official selling price for Basrah Medium crude oil to North America and South America for August at a discount of $1.15 per barrel compared to Argus sour crude [1]

Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: June 11, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ actual production increase is lower than market expectations, and the peak travel season in Europe and the United States is gradually starting, so there is some upward momentum for oil prices in the short term [7] - In the later stage, as tariff negotiations continue to advance, demand expectations are expected to be further raised, but still lower than the level before the tariff war [7] - The balance sheet adjustment is limited, and inventory accumulation is still expected in the 2nd - 4th quarters [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - WTI's opening price was $64.8, closing price was $65.38, with a high of $65.43, low of $64.20, a rise of 1.24%, and trading volume of 21.11 million lots; Brent's opening price was $65.85, closing price was $66.34, with a high of $66.39, low of $65.38, a rise of 0.93%, and trading volume of 21.62 million lots; SC's opening price was 478.2 yuan/barrel, closing price was 479.8 yuan/barrel, with a high of 482.4 yuan/barrel, low of 474.8 yuan/barrel, a rise of 1.27%, and trading volume of 9.24 million lots [6] - OPEC+ 5 member countries' crude oil production increase in May was still lower than the commitment, basically in line with expectations, which promoted the recent rise in oil prices [6] - Saudi Arabia has stated to increase production, but the actual production increase of 8 member countries has not reached the declared level. If the production increase falls short of expectations, it will provide additional support to the supply side [7] - In the 5 - month report, due to the suspension of the Sino - US tariff conflict, the three major institutions adjusted the demand expectations, with the overall improvement. The IEA significantly raised the demand expectation, while the adjustment range of EIA and OPEC was relatively limited. Due to the supply growth expectations of OPEC+ and countries like Brazil and Guyana, the balance sheet adjustment was limited, and inventory accumulation was still expected in the 2nd - 4th quarters [7] 2. Industry News - Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization SOMO will set the official selling price of Basra Medium crude oil sold to Asia in July at a premium of $0.30 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai crude oil average price [8] - The oil production of five OPEC+ member countries participating in the production increase increased by 180,000 barrels per day in May, lower than the promised increase of 310,000 barrels per day [8] - Due to refinery shutdowns, fuel imports in California, USA reached the highest level in 4 years [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI and Brent fund positions, spot prices of various crude oils, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventory [10][12][18]

Energy - Iraq's SOMO announced that the official selling price of Basrah medium crude oil for July shipments to Asia will be $0.30 per barrel above the average price of Oman/Dubai crude [1] - A survey indicated that five OPEC+ member countries increased oil production by 180,000 barrels per day in May, which is below the committed increase of 310,000 barrels per day [1] - Due to refinery shutdowns, fuel imports in California reached their highest level in four years [1] - The Israeli military stated that its naval vessels attacked Houthi targets in Yemen's Hodeidah port [1] Precious Metals and Mining - Chile's central bank reported that copper export revenue fell to $4.48 billion in May [2] Agriculture - On June 10, the first meeting of the China-U.S. trade negotiation mechanism will continue [3] - Japanese trade negotiators will visit the U.S. and Canada from June 13 to 18 for negotiations [3] - The U.S. Department of Justice requested the court to extend the stay on the enforcement of the ruling invalidating Trump's tariffs [3] Other - An Iranian parliamentary spokesperson indicated that if the International Atomic Energy Agency pressures Iran and triggers mechanisms, Iran plans to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty [4] - Iran's foreign ministry stated that the U.S. proposal regarding the nuclear agreement is "unacceptable" [4] Additional Information - South Korean egg prices have reached a four-year high [5] - The Japanese government will release an additional 200,000 tons of reserve rice [5] - Malaysia's MPOB reported that palm oil production in May was 1,771,621 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.05% [5] - Local growers and officials indicated that India is expected to have a surplus of sugar for two consecutive years [5]

Core Viewpoint - Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) has set the official selling price for Basra Medium crude oil to Asia in July at a premium of $0.30 per barrel over the average price of Oman/Dubai crude oil [1] Group 1 - Iraq will sell Basra Medium crude oil to Asia at a price that is $0.30 higher than the average price of Oman/Dubai crude oil [1]

伊拉克国家石油营销组织SOMO：伊拉克将7月售往北美和南美的巴士拉中质原油官方售价定为较阿格 斯含硫原油贴水1.05美元/桶。 ...