Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The opening of the Lujiazui Forum today announced a series of measures, such as eight financial opening - up initiatives. Overall, the released information had no obvious unexpected highlights, so the market reaction was flat, maintaining a volatile state with no significant change in trading volume. The current economic fundamentals are still in a weak recovery state, lacking a clear trend and having limited driving force for the index. Coupled with the turbulent external situation and the sharp escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, there are still uncertainties overseas, posing significant resistance to the short - term upward movement of the index. However, the management is determined to stabilize the market, so the downside space of the stock index is limited. In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate within a range, waiting for new driving factors [4]. Market Review - Today, except for the CSI 300 Index, all other stock indexes closed down. In terms of capital flow, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 1.6146 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IC increased in volume and price, while IH and IM increased in price with reduced volume [2]. Important Information - The central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, announced eight major financial opening - up initiatives, including setting up a trading report repository in the inter - bank market, a digital RMB international operation center, and a personal credit information agency; conducting a comprehensive reform pilot of offshore trade financial services in the Lingang New Area of Shanghai; developing free - trade offshore bonds; optimizing and upgrading the functions of free - trade accounts; piloting innovative structural monetary policy tools in Shanghai; and promoting RMB foreign exchange futures trading in conjunction with the CSRC [3]. - The CSRC announced that starting from October 9, 2025, qualified overseas investors will be allowed to participate in on - site ETF options trading for hedging purposes only [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold and wait and see [5] Market Observation Futures Index Market | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | 0.23 | 10.5667 | 1.0037 | 23.8264 | 0.0486 | | IH | 0.01 | 4.843 | - 0.2249 | 8.1317 | - 0.1259 | | IC | 0.03 | 8.8945 | 0.2632 | 21.9162 | 0.0926 | | IM | 0.10 | 18.8199 | 0.8241 | 32.1988 | - 0.7768 | [5][6] Spot Market | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | 0.04 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | 0.24 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 0.52 | | Trading Volume of the Two Markets (100 million yuan) | 1191.067 | | Trading Volume MoM (100 million yuan) | - 1.6146 | [6]

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至6月18日收盘主力合约短纤2508,涨跌+3.05%,成交量22.60万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净 空，差额头寸为1984手。 短纤期货全合约总计成交40.29万手，比上一日新增6.28万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓24.02万手，比上一日增加8287手。全合约 前20席位空头持仓24.59万手，比上一日增加7132手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为中信期货，总持仓26938、国泰君安，总持仓22256、银河期货，总持仓15813；空头前三席位 为国泰君安，总持仓26772、中信期货，总持仓25290、浙商期货，总持仓16632； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：银河期货、持仓10099、增仓1361，海通期货、持仓8110、增仓1171，乾坤期货、 持仓11433、增仓1150；多头减仓前二名分别是：中信建投、持仓5732、减仓-3455，永安期货、持仓5729、减仓-2000； 2025年6月18日短纤主力合约2508持仓数据一览 | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | 会员 | 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | ...

Group 1: Methanol - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: High imports are being realized, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It is in a period of negative news realization. Pay attention to the actual inventory accumulation situation. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the United States, it's hard to determine the unilateral direction. Due to the low valuation, it is advisable to consider buying at low prices [1] - Summary of related data: From June 11 to June 17, 2025, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801, the price of江苏现货 increased from 2383 to 2595, the日度变化 was 10, and the盘面MTO利润 remained at - 1001 except for - 986 on June 11 [1] Group 2: Plastic (Polyethylene) - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The inventory of polyethylene is neutral overall. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. The external markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in June decreased month - on - month, and the domestic linear production increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [6] - Summary of related data: From June 11 to June 17, 2025, the price of东北亚乙烯 increased from 790 to 800, the price of华东LL increased from 7210 to 7415, and the仓单 decreased from 5734 to 5556 [6] Group 3: PP (Polypropylene) - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The upstream and middle - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around - 1000, the propylene price is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up is stable. The拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The downstream orders are average currently, and the raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6] - Summary of related data: From June 11 to June 17, 2025, the price of山东丙烯 increased from 6340 to 6410, the price of华东PP increased from 7015 to 7140, and the出口利润 remained at - 20 [6] Group 4: PVC - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The basis has strengthened to 09 - 200, and the factory - pickup basis is - 380. The downstream start - up is seasonal, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventories of the middle and upstream are continuously decreasing. There are seasonal maintenance of northwest plants in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In June, pay attention to the realization of new plant commissioning and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders are acceptable. In June, macro - factors to watch include the ZZJ meeting and the US interest - rate decision. Coal prices are weak, and the cost of semi - coke is also weak. Calcium carbide may have difficulty expanding profits with PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 400. Pay attention to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 500. Currently, the static inventory at a high level is continuously decreasing, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up [10] - Summary of related data: From June 11 to June 17, 2025, the price of西北电石 decreased from 2350 to 2300, the price of山东烧碱 decreased from 872 to 852, and the price of电石法 - 西北 increased from 4420 to 4450 [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Short - term investors are advised to closely monitor the impact of changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation on risk - aversion sentiment and focus on the statements of the Fed's June FOMC meeting regarding inflation, the economy, and interest rate prospects. Short - term corrections are still regarded as medium - to long - term buying opportunities [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On Tuesday, the precious metals market showed gold fluctuating and silver rising. The surrounding US dollar index rose, the 10Y US Treasury yield fell, and the US stock market declined, indicating an increase in the demand for US dollar safe - haven assets. The final closing prices were: COMEX gold 2508 contract at $3406.5 per ounce, down 0.32%; US silver 2507 contract at $37.18 per ounce, up 2.01%; SHFE gold 2508 main contract at 785.08 yuan per gram, down 1.46%; SHFE silver 2508 contract at 8864 yuan per kilogram, up 0.45% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 97.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.7%. In July, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 85.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 14.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.3%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 36.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 54.8%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 8.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point rate cut is 0.2% [3]. - In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 4.01 tons to 945.94 tons, while the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 39.58 tons to 14675.36 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 20.2 tons to 1215.1 tons, and SGX silver inventory increased by 59.6 tons to 1378.9 tons in the week ending June 13 [3]. 3.3 Key Events This Week - The US retail sales month - on - month rate announced on Tuesday was - 0.9%, lower than the expected - 0.7%, and the previous value was revised down. The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on Tuesday maintained the third on - hold stance this year. The focus this week is on the Fed's June FOMC meeting early on Thursday. The Fed will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary at 02:00 on Thursday, and Fed Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference at 02:03. The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision at 19:00 on Thursday [4]. 3.4 Technical Analysis and Trading Suggestions - For London gold, the short - term technical trend has weakened. Support levels are around 3365, with strong support at 3300, and resistance levels at 3400, 3450, and strong resistance in the 3500 area. For London silver, the short - term trend has strengthened. Support levels are in the 36.9 - 37 area, then 36, 35.5, with strong support in the 34.8 - 35 area, and the upside space has opened up to the 40 area, and even 45 is possible [5]. 3.5 Other Market Data - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of precious metal futures and spot prices, including SHFE gold and silver, SGX gold and silver, CME gold and silver, and the CME gold - silver ratio [6]. - The table presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of stock, bond, and commodity markets, such as the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot price, LmeS copper 03 price, 10Y US Treasury yield, 10Y US real interest rate, and 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread [24].

南华期货铅风险管理报告 2025年6月17日 南华有⾊⾦属研究团队 肖宇⾮ 投资咨询证号： Z0018441 林嘉玮 从业资格证号：F03145451 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1290号 铅价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 预测区间 | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 16860 | 16300-17100 | 8.95% | 17.0% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 铅风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铅主力期货合约 | 沪铅主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 17000 | | | | | 暂无 | 沪铅期权 | 暂无 | 暂无 | 暂无 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪铅主力期货合约 | 沪铅主力期货合 ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - The current Sino-US tariff policy expectations continue to cause disturbances. After the first meeting of the Sino-US London Economic and Trade Consultation Mechanism, there is no policy adjustment related to reciprocal tariffs or the textile and clothing sectors. During the off - season of demand, the upside space for cotton prices is limited, and there may be a short - term decline. Attention should be paid to the support around 13,000, as well as further adjustments to Sino - US policies [4] Group 2: Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for cotton is 12,800 - 13,700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0545 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.0339 [3] Risk Management Strategy Inventory Management - For enterprises with high inventory worried about cotton price decline, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 13,600 - 13,800. They can also sell call options (CF509C13800) to collect premiums, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 200 - 250 [3] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 12,600 - 12,800. They can also sell put options (CF509P12800) to collect premiums, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 150 - 200 [3] Group 3: Market Situation Analysis Bullish Factors - Affected by high tariffs, cotton imports this year have dropped significantly, and there is no reserve cotton sale. Although Xinjiang cotton production is high, inventory is being depleted quickly, and the spot basis remains strong. As of the end of May, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in the country was 4399800 tons [5] Bearish Factors - In the 24/25 season, the processing cost of new cotton in northern Xinjiang is mostly around 15,000 yuan/ton, and there is still some new cotton not hedged. The downstream is in the traditional off - season, with slow sales, reduced load of spinning and weaving mills, general procurement enthusiasm for raw materials, strong wait - and - see sentiment, and continuous inventory accumulation of finished products [5] Group 4: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Cotton 01 | 13530 | 0 | 0% | | Cotton 05 | 13535 | 5 | 0.04% | | Cotton 09 | 13525 | - 5 | - 0.04% | | Cotton Yarn 01 | 0 | - 19690 | - 100% | | Cotton Yarn 05 | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Cotton Yarn 09 | 19775 | 10 | 0.05% | [5][6] Group 5: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Cotton Basis | 1337 | 47 | | Cotton 01 - 05 | - 5 | - 5 | | Cotton 05 - 09 | 10 | 10 | | Cotton 09 - 01 | - 5 | - 5 | | Cotton - Yarn Spread | 6250 | 0 | | Domestic - Foreign Cotton Spread | 1146 | - 89 | | Domestic - Foreign Yarn Spread | - 689 | 0 | [7] Group 6: Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes | Index | Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CCI 3128B | 14862 | 42 | 0.28% | | CCI 2227B | 12968 | 36 | 0.28% | | CCI 2129B | 15172 | 44 | 0.29% | | FCI Index S | 13880 | 18 | 0.13% | | FCI Index M | 13691 | 17 | 0.12% | | FCI Index L | 13461 | 18 | 0.13% | [8]

玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/06/17 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 玻璃：供应端整体保持低位波动状态不变；价格低位，冷修预期将增强 纯碱：5月-6月厂家检修逐步兑现；出口超预期，缓解国内过剩压力 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 900-1100 | 29.21% | 78.7% | | 纯碱 | 1000-1250 | 21.17% | 20.3% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 玻璃纯碱套保策略表2 | | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | 具 | | （%） | | | 玻 璃 | 库存 管理 | 产成品库存偏高， 担心玻璃价格下跌 | | 为了防止存货叠加损失 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The fundamentals of the LPG market are marginally improving but still under pressure, with significant geopolitical risks. It is recommended to operate with caution [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Data and Analysis 3.1 Price and Basis Changes - **Daily Price Changes**: On June 16, 2025, compared to the previous day, the prices of civil LPG in Shandong, East China, and South China changed to 4610 (down 10), 4616 (up 53), and 4720 (up 80) respectively; the price of ether - post carbon four increased by 30 to 4980. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil LPG at 4610. The PG futures price rose significantly, with the basis of the 07 contract changing to 212 (down 9) and the 07 - 09 spread changing to 178 (down 17) [1] - **Weekly Changes**: The civil LPG price increased significantly, with the cheapest deliverable being East China civil LPG at 4603. The 07 contract basis weakened to 221 (down 130), and the 07 - 09 spread was 195 (up 10). The PG - CP spread was 18 US dollars (up 27), and the FEI - CP spread was - 19 (up 31) [1] 3.2 Market Factors - **Supply - related Factors**: The US - to - Far East arbitrage window closed. Port and factory inventories decreased. Arrivals and out - shipments declined, and it is expected that out - shipments will increase and arrivals will decrease in the future. The waiting time at the Panama Canal for VLGCs decreased [1] - **Demand - related Factors**: Chemical demand improved overall. The PDH operating rate increased to 64.3%, the alkylation operating rate increased to 48.18%, and MTBE production increased significantly. With rising temperatures, combustion demand is expected to decline [1] 3.3 Profit and Spread Analysis - **Profit Changes**: PDH production profit deteriorated, with FEI production profit lower than CP on a weekly basis and higher than CP on a daily basis. Alkylation oil profitability decreased significantly, MTBE gas - fractionation etherification profit increased, and isomerization etherification profit decreased [1] - **Spread Movements**: FEI - MOPJ and naphtha crack spreads decreased [1] 3.4 Other Information - The number of registered warrants was 9005 lots (down 335) [1]

文章来源:新浪期货 | | | | | 2025年6月17日原木主力合约2507持仓数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 増減 | 会员 | 持买单 | 増減 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | ਹ | 中信期货 | 14,003 | 3,439 | 中信期货 | 1,904 | 170 | 国泰君安 | 2,333 | 245 | | 2 | 东证期货 | 7,472 | 1,837 | 国泰君安 | 1,419 | -84 | 中信期货 | 1.682 | -562 | | 3 | 花拳期货 | 6,296 | 3,183 | 首创京都 | 1.344 | 468 | 国贸期货 | 1,605 | 14 | | 4 | 海通期货 | 5,082 | 1,977 | 创元期货 | 1,153 | 24 | 首创京都 | 1,186 | ರಿಕ | | 5 | 国泰君安 | 3,630 | 288 | 东证期货 | 1,099 | 207 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily: Geopolitical Conflicts Dominate Gold Prices in the Short Term [1] - Date: June 17, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of gold prices is mainly influenced by the fluctuations in the Middle East geopolitical situation, and investors are advised to closely monitor the development of the situation [2] - In the medium - to - long - term, the precious metals market may be bullish. In the short - term, investors should pay attention to the impact of the Middle East geopolitical situation on risk - aversion sentiment and the statements of the Fed's June FOMC meeting on inflation, the economy, and interest rate prospects [5] Summary by Directory Market Quotes - On Monday, the precious metals market saw gold prices decline and silver prices remain stable. The COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3404.3 per ounce, down 1.4%; the SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 792.3 yuan per gram, down 0.08%. The SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8858 yuan per kilogram, up 0.45%; the COMEX silver 2507 contract closed at $36.37 per ounce, up 0.04% [2] Interest Rate Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 99.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 0.2%. In July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 87.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 12.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 35.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 57.2%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 7.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point rate cut is 0% [3] - Long - term funds: The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 1.44 tons to 941.93 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF's holdings increased by 39.58 tons to 14714.94 tons. In terms of inventory, the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 15.1 tons to 1194.3 tons per day; as of the week ending June 6, the SGX silver inventory decreased by 28.2 tons to 1319.3 tons per week [3] This Week's Focus - In terms of data, the overall data this week is light. Pay appropriate attention to the US retail sales data on Tuesday evening, and focus on the Fed's June FOMC meeting early on Thursday [4] - In terms of events, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday; at 02:00 on Thursday, the Fed FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary; at 02:03, Fed Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference; at 19:00 on Thursday, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision [4] Nanhua's Viewpoint - In the short - term, London gold is expected to fluctuate strongly, with resistance moving up to $3450 and strong resistance in the $3500 area; support is at $3400, and strong support is in the $3300 area. London silver adjusted in a range last week, but there is also strong buying below. The short - term support is at $36 and $35.5, and the strong support is in the $34.8 - $35 area. The upside space has opened up to the $40 area, and there is even a possibility of reaching $45. Short - term pullbacks are still regarded as medium - to - long - term buying opportunities [5] Price and Inventory Data - The report provides price data for various gold and silver contracts, including SHFE gold and silver main contracts, SGX gold and silver TD, CME gold and silver main contracts, etc., as well as inventory and position data for gold and silver, such as SHFE gold and silver inventories, CME gold and silver inventories, and ETF holdings [6][15][17] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - Data on the US dollar index, US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot price, LmeS copper 03 price, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread are provided [23]