Core Insights - The main contract for polysilicon (2509) closed at a price increase of 7.24% as of July 17, with a trading volume of 506,000 contracts and a net long position of 17,683 contracts among the top 20 positions [1][3]. Trading Volume and Positions - Total trading volume for all polysilicon contracts reached 1,095,400 contracts, an increase of 132,600 contracts from the previous day [1][4]. - The top 20 positions showed a total long position of 286,600 contracts, up by 32,200 contracts from the previous day [1][4]. - The total short position among the top 20 positions was 247,300 contracts, which increased by 33,300 contracts compared to the previous day [1][4]. Major Players - The top three long positions were held by Guotai Junan Futures (46,504 contracts), CITIC Futures (38,778 contracts), and Zheshang Futures (36,788 contracts) [1][4]. - The top three short positions were held by CITIC Futures (29,949 contracts), Guotai Junan Futures (25,716 contracts), and CITIC Jiantou (24,825 contracts) [1][4]. Changes in Positions - Among the top 20 positions, the largest increases in long positions were from Guotai Junan Futures (5,499 contracts), Haitong Futures (2,941 contracts), and Guomao Futures (2,673 contracts) [1][4]. - The largest decreases in long positions were from Yong'an Futures (-1,516 contracts), Wukuang Futures (-229 contracts), and Baocheng Futures (-55 contracts) [1][4]. - The largest increases in short positions were from CITIC Jiantou (3,711 contracts), Dongwu Futures (2,673 contracts), and CITIC Futures (2,039 contracts) [1][4]. - The largest decreases in short positions were from Yong'an Futures (-465 contracts), Zhaoshang Futures (-360 contracts), and Shenyin Wanguo (-202 contracts) [1][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but short - term fluctuations will intensify. It is recommended to control positions. For London gold, pay attention to the support at the 3300 mark, and for London silver, the support is around 37.3. The strategy of buying on dips is still maintained [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the precious metals market adjusted. The sharp rise of the US dollar index and the 10Y US Treasury yield was a negative factor. The surrounding US stocks and Bitcoin declined, crude oil fluctuated, and the South China Non - ferrous Metals fluctuated. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3330.5 per ounce, down 0.85%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $37.985 per ounce, down 1.95%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was 780.4 yuan per gram, up 1.06%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was 9225 yuan per kilogram, up 0.52% [1] Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of an interest rate cut in September has slightly cooled. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 45.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 53.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 1.4%. In October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 22%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 49.2%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 28.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 0.7%. The daily holdings of SPDR Gold ETF remained at 947.64 tons, and the holdings of iShares Silver ETF decreased by 110.22 tons to 14856.02 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 1 ton to 1223 tons daily, and SGX silver inventory increased by 7.3 tons to 1327.2 tons in the week ending July 4 [2] This Week's Focus - This week, focus on the US CPI data on Tuesday evening. On Thursday at 02:00, the Fed will release the Beige Book of Economic Conditions; at 05:30, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak on the US economy and monetary policy. In addition, US President Trump plans to make a "major statement" on the Russian issue this week [3] Precious Metals Spot and Futures Prices - SHFE gold main continuous contract was 780.4 yuan per gram, down 1 yuan, or - 0.13%; SGX gold TD was 776.13 yuan per gram, down 1.33 yuan, or - 0.17%; CME gold main contract was $3330.5 per ounce, down $21.6, or - 0.64%. SHFE silver main continuous contract was 9225 yuan per kilogram, up 18 yuan, or 0.2%; SGX silver TD was 9184 yuan per kilogram, up 12 yuan, or 0.13%; CME silver main contract was $37.985 per ounce, down $0.425, or - 1.11%. SHFE - TD gold was 4.27 yuan per gram, up 0.33 yuan, or 8.38%; SHFE - TD silver was 41 yuan per kilogram, up 6 yuan, or 191.67%. CME gold - silver ratio was 87.6793, up 0.4078, or 0.47% [5] Inventory and Holdings - SHFE gold inventory was 28872 kilograms, up 15 kilograms, or 0.05%; CME gold inventory was 1143.012 tons, unchanged; SHFE gold holdings were 198270 lots, up 7187 lots, or 3.76%; SPDR gold holdings were 947.64 tons, unchanged. SHFE silver inventory was 1222.959 tons, down 1.023 tons, or - 0.08%; CME silver inventory was 15447.1139 tons, up 0.3878 tons, or 0%; SGX silver inventory was 1327.23 tons, up 7.335 tons, or 0.56%; SHFE silver holdings were 450115 lots, up 2020 lots, or 0.45%; SLV silver holdings were 14856.023289 tons, down 110.213 tons, or - 0.74% [11] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The US dollar index was 98.6303, up 0.5171, or 0.53%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.1858, up 0.0139, or 0.19%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 44459.65 points, up 88.14 points, or 0.2%; WTI crude oil spot was $66.98 per barrel, down $1.47, or - 2.15%; LmeS copper 03 was $9643.5 per ton, down $19.5, or - 0.2%. The 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.43%, unchanged; the 10Y US real interest rate was 2.09%, up 0.05, or 2.45%; the 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was 0.53%, unchanged [16][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, affected by macro - factors, chemical products generally declined. PE has a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectation, with its spot performance being weak recently but fundamentals expected to be better. If the current demand growth rate is maintained, the PE supply - demand structure is expected to be in a tight - balance state. The month - spread has changed from back to contango, and pressure on L09 is expected to be relieved when the PE spot shows positive feedback [3] - There are both positive and negative factors for PE. Positive factors include some full - density device conversions and potential import reduction from Iran due to conflicts. Negative factors are the planned commissioning of multiple HDPE devices in the middle of the year and weak spot prices [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Prediction and Volatility - The monthly price range prediction for polyethylene is 7100 - 7400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.32% and a historical percentile of 21.7% over 3 years [2] 3.2 Hedging Strategies 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for inventory management, it is recommended to short L2509 plastic futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7250 - 7300 to prevent inventory depreciation. Also, sell L2509C7300 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2] 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When procurement inventory is low and aiming to lock in costs, buy L2509 plastic futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 7100 - 7150 to prevent price increases. Sell L2509P7100 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at 40 - 80 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2] 3.3 Market Data Table 3.3.1 Futures Prices and Spreads - On July 15, 2025, the plastic main basis was 14 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 58 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 14 yuan/ton. The L01, L05, and L09 contracts were 7239, 7214, and 7221 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 49, - 44, and - 63 yuan/ton and weekly changes of 14, 14, and - 24 yuan/ton [6][8] 3.3.2 Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - On July 15, 2025, spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7150, 7290, and 7270 yuan/ton respectively. The East - North and East - South regional spreads were 140 and 20 yuan/ton with daily changes of 30 and 30 yuan/ton and weekly changes of - 10 and - 30 yuan/ton [8] 3.3.3 Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - On July 15, 2025, the spreads between HDPE film and LLDPE film, HDPE hollow and LLDPE film, etc. showed various changes compared to previous days and weeks [8] 3.3.4 Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - On July 15, 2025, the Brent crude oil price was 69 dollars/barrel, the US ethane price was 0.245 dollars/gallon, and there were different profit situations for oil - based, coal - based, and other PE production methods [8]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: July 15, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Zhou Fuhan (Z0020173), Chen Mintao (F03118345) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Hedging Price Forecast - Silicon Iron Price Range (Monthly): 5300 - 6000, Current Volatility: 20.20%, Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years): 54.1% [2] - Silicon Manganese Price Range (Monthly): 5300 - 6000, Current Volatility: 13.67%, Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years): 18.9% [2] Hedging - Inventory Management: For high finished - product inventory, short SF2509 and SM2509 futures with a 15% hedging ratio, recommended entry range: SF 6200 - 6250, SM 6400 - 6500 [2] - Procurement Management: For low procurement inventory, buy SF2509 and SM2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio, recommended entry range: SF 5100 - 5200, SM 5300 - 5400 [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction and Market Trend - Last week, driven by anti - involution sentiment, ferroalloys maintained a slow upward trend. With profit recovery, the operating rate increased, and production was above the seasonal level. Production slightly increased, but downstream demand didn't change significantly. Silicon iron showed a stockpiling trend, and the de - stocking speed of silicon manganese slowed down. Considering factors such as the reduction of manganese ore quotes in August, the resumption of Australian ore shipments, and the negative feedback expectation of the black market in the off - season, ferroalloys are expected to remain weak. After the market recovery, there is a high possibility of increased production due to profit repair, and supply pressure may gradually increase. Silicon iron is under pressure at 5600 - 5700, and silicon manganese at 5800 - 5900. However, the overall price center of the black sector has moved up, and coal prices are strengthening, so the downside space of ferroalloys is limited. Ferroalloys may maintain a volatile trend [3] Group 4: Bullish Factors Silicon Iron - Inner Mongolia production area profit: - 261.5 yuan/ton (+70); Ningxia production area profit: - 98 yuan/ton (+50). With profit repair, there is a possibility of increased production. The weekly operating rate of silicon iron producers is 31.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75%, and the weekly output is 9.87 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5% [3] Silicon Manganese - The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon manganese industry. The profit in the northern region is - 57.9 yuan/ton (+100.58), and in the southern region is - 393.26 yuan/ton (+96.32). The enterprise inventory is 22.08 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.67%; the warehouse receipts are 42.52 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.1%; the total inventory is 64.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.96% [5] Group 5: Bearish Factors Silicon Iron - This week, the enterprise inventory is 7.02 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.78%. The warehouse receipt inventory is higher than the historical level after re - registration following the June cancellation rule. The expected decline in hot metal production weakens the support for ferroalloys [6] Silicon Manganese - In the long term, the sluggish real estate market and the decline of the black sector make the market skeptical about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon manganese. The weekly operating rate of silicon manganese producers is 40.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%, and the weekly output is 18.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.22% [7] Group 6: Daily Data Silicon Iron - On July 14, 2025, the basis in Ningxia is 66, the 01 - 05 spread is - 60, the 05 - 09 spread is 134, the 09 - 01 spread is - 74. The spot prices in different regions and the prices of related raw materials and warehouse receipts are also provided [8] Silicon Manganese - On July 14, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia is 168, the 01 - 05 spread is - 34, the 05 - 09 spread is 74, the 09 - 01 spread is - 40, the double - silicon spread is - 298. The spot prices in different regions, the prices of manganese ore and other raw materials, and warehouse receipts are also provided [9][10] Group 7: Seasonal Charts - The report provides seasonal charts of silicon iron market price, basis, futures spreads, and total inventory, as well as silicon manganese market price, basis, futures spreads, and inventory [11][12][13][14][15][16][17][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Industrial Silicon**: In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerating the elimination of backward production capacity and entering the de - stocking process. The supply pressure will be continuously released with the implementation of production plans in Southwest China during the wet season. The downstream demand support is expected to strengthen, but inventory remains at a historical high. Overall, the price will show a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of placing long orders for industrial silicon at low prices [4]. - **Polysilicon**: In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is in a stage where fundamental logic and "anti - involution" logic alternate. Fundamentally, the expected reduction in electricity prices and increased profits may boost production capacity. However, demand growth is limited, and high inventory pressure persists. If effective industry integration or coordinated production reduction measures are implemented, it may reverse the current situation. It is recommended to focus on the positive spread opportunity between PS2509 - PS2511 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon **Futures Data** - The industrial silicon futures main contract shows a wide - range oscillation, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 34.5%, a daily decline of 0.19%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of current volatility of 96.3%. The main contract's closing price was 8785 yuan/ton, with a 1.04% increase; trading volume was 1,416,898 lots, down 3.87%; and open interest was 396,653 lots, down 1.55% [2][12]. - The SI09 - 11 spread was 90 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SI11 - 12 spread was - 290 yuan/ton, down 9.43% [14]. **Spot Data** - Spot prices of industrial silicon in various regions have increased, such as the East China 553 at 9150 yuan/ton, up 1.67%, and the East China 421 at 9500 yuan/ton, up 2.15%. The East China 553 basis was 365 yuan/ton, up 19.67%, and the East China 421 basis was 715 yuan/ton, up 18.18%. The East China 421 - 553 spread was 350 yuan/ton, up 16.67% [16]. **Basis and Warehouse Receipts** - The total industrial silicon warehouse receipts were 50,258 lots, up 29.69%. Warehouse receipts in various delivery warehouses showed different changes, such as a 6.59% increase in the Tianjin delivery warehouse to 10.1 million tons [22][23]. Polysilicon **Futures Data** - The polysilicon futures main contract also shows a wide - range oscillation, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 44.05%, a daily decline of 0.94%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of current volatility of 82.57%. The main contract's closing price was 42,470 yuan/ton, with a 1.69% increase; trading volume was 565,746 lots, up 20.29%; and open interest was 69,821 lots, down 10.86% [2][25]. - The PS08 - 09 spread was 350 yuan/ton, up 9.38%; the PS08 - 11 spread was 1530 yuan/ton, down 5.56%; the PS09 - 11 spread was 1180 yuan/ton, down 9.23%; the PS11 - 12 spread was - 2270 yuan/ton, down 5.34% [27]. **Spot Data** - Spot prices of polysilicon showed little change. For example, the N - type polysilicon price index remained at 43.45 yuan/kg, and the particle silicon price decreased by 1.15% to 43 yuan/kg [32]. **Basis and Warehouse Receipts Data** - The polysilicon main contract basis was 980 yuan/ton, down 41.84%; the PS2509 contract basis was 1330 yuan/ton, down 33.7%; the PS2511 contract basis was 2510 yuan/ton, down 24.05%. Warehouse receipts in various regions remained unchanged [39][41].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: Continue to hold [1] Core Viewpoints - The bearish factors in the bond market have basically been exhausted today. The central bank's press conference on Monday and the outright repo have alleviated market concerns about regulatory and capital tightening. The June economic data has further highlighted the supply - demand contradiction, and the market's judgment on the fundamentals has been verified again. The Central Urban Work Conference in the afternoon focused on modernization, innovation, livability, and smart cities, and the expectation of shantytown renovation has also been dashed. The market sentiment has reversed, and the market may continue to rise in the short term, but after the sentiment is digested, the market may return to a volatile pattern [3] Content Summary by Related Catalogs Disk Review - Treasury bond futures opened slightly higher, quickly rose after the release of economic data during the session, and strengthened throughout the day, closing higher across the board. In the open market, 69 billion yuan matured today, and the central bank conducted 342.5 billion yuan of 7 - day pledged repurchase, with a net investment of 273.5 billion yuan [1] Intraday News - On the 15th, Sheng Laiyun, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, stated at a press conference that relevant departments are formulating measures to regulate market order, which is conducive to promoting the improvement of market supply - demand relations, price recovery, corporate profits, and economic structure adjustment [2] Market Judgment - The bearish factors in the bond market have basically been exhausted. The central bank's press conference and the outright repo have eased market concerns; the economic data has verified the market's judgment on fundamentals; the Central Urban Work Conference disappointed the market in terms of shantytown renovation expectations. The market sentiment has reversed, and it may continue to rise in the short term, but will return to a volatile pattern after the sentiment is digested [3] Data Overview - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On July 15, 2025, compared with July 14, 2025, TS2509 rose 0.036 to 102.414, TF2509 rose 0.13 to 106.015, T2509 rose 0.19 to 108.885, and TL2509 rose 0.57 to 120.77 [4] - **Contract Positions and Changes**: TS contract positions increased by 324 to 124,685 hands, TF contract positions decreased by 2,605 to 206,300 hands, T contract positions decreased by 2,210 to 236,332 hands, and TL contract positions decreased by 276 to 152,088 hands [4] - **Basis and Changes**: TS basis (CTD) rose 0.0193 to 0.0192, TF basis (CTD) rose 0.0223 to 0.0428, T basis (CTD) fell 0.0301 to - 0.0004, and TL basis (CTD) fell 0.007 to 0.3404 [4] - **Transaction Volume and Changes**: TS main contract trading volume decreased by 767 to 32,348 hands, TF main contract trading volume decreased by 14,377 to 48,707 hands, T main contract trading volume decreased by 1,759 to 67,445 hands, and TL main contract trading volume decreased by 820 to 91,330 hands [4] - **Funding Rates and Changes**: DR001 rose 0.0813 to 1.424, DR007 rose 0.0642 to 1.536, and DR014 rose 0.0249 to 1.5609. DR001 trading volume decreased by 380.50451 billion yuan to 2,336.61307 billion yuan, DR007 trading volume increased by 78.7651 billion yuan to 1,063.5984 billion yuan, and DR014 trading volume increased by 2.2952 billion yuan to 110.983 billion yuan [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply - demand structure of asphalt shows a weakening trend, with weekly production increasing by 28% year - on - year and demand growing by 10% year - on - year. The inventory structure shows factory inventory accumulation and social inventory depletion, and speculative demand is weakening. The basis in Shandong and East China has weakened due to increased operating rates, while the crack spread remains high. Currently, the supply increase exceeds expectations slightly, and the demand is still in the off - season due to rainfall. The overall fundamentals have weakened month - on - month. In the medium to long term, demand is expected to pick up as construction conditions improve in August, and the peak season is still worth looking forward to. Short - term attention should be paid to the cargo flow situation and the details and authenticity of the fuel oil consumption refund policy in Shandong [2] - There are both positive and negative factors for asphalt. Positive factors include low factory inventory pressure, seasonal peak demand, low operating rates and the expectation of catch - up construction in the South. Negative factors include the resumption of production in some refineries after maintenance, short - term demand drag from the plum rain season in the South, and weakening basis [3][6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Asphalt Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the month is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.98% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 40.88% [1] 2. Asphalt Risk Management Strategy - For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about asphalt price drops, enterprises with long spot positions can short the bu2509 asphalt futures at a hedging ratio of 25% in the price range of 3650 - 3750 to lock in profits and make up for production costs [1] - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase according to orders, enterprises with short spot positions can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures at a hedging ratio of 50% in the price range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in procurement costs in advance [1] 3. Asphalt Spot and Futures Prices and Related Indicators - **Spot prices**: On July 14, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3810 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, - 10 yuan/ton week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3780 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, - 50 yuan/ton week - on - week), the North China spot price was 3750 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day and week - on - week), and the South China spot price was 3610 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, - 20 yuan/ton week - on - week) [4] - **Spot 09 basis**: The Shandong, Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China spot 09 basis all decreased by 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, with weekly decreases of - 90, - 130, - 80, and - 100 yuan/ton respectively [4] - **Crack spread**: The Shandong spot crack spread against Brent was 153.4511 yuan/barrel, a daily decrease of - 0.2613 yuan/barrel and a weekly decrease of - 9.1929 yuan/barrel. The futures main contract crack spread against Brent was 125.0318 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 6.6702 yuan/barrel and a weekly increase of 6.4031 yuan/barrel [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry will be in a cycle of accelerating the clearance of backward production capacity and entering the de - stocking process. The supply pressure will be released with the implementation of production plans in Southwest China during the wet season. The downstream demand is expected to strengthen, with the photovoltaic industry potentially boosting demand, while organic silicon and aluminum alloy enterprises maintaining stable demand. The price will show a wide - range fluctuation. Suggestions include looking for opportunities to go long on industrial silicon at low prices, SI2509 - SI2511 positive spread trading, and going long on industrial silicon while shorting polysilicon [4]. - Positive factors are the "anti - involution" policy, limited downward space for costs, and better - than - expected demand. Negative factors are the release of production capacity in Southwest China during the wet season and potential weakening of demand due to industrial integration in the polysilicon industry [5][6]. Polysilicon - In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is in a stage where fundamental and "anti - involution" logics alternate. Fundamentally, lower electricity prices and higher profits may increase production capacity. However, demand growth is limited, and high inventory persists. If industry integration is effective, it may drive prices up. The suggestion is to focus on PS2508 - PS2511 positive spread trading [8]. - Positive factors are potential industry integration and increased external demand from the US. Negative factors are inventory accumulation if integration fails [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The industrial silicon main contract shows wide - range fluctuations, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 34.7%, a daily increase of 1.09%, and the current volatility at the 96.4% historical percentile in 3 years. The main contract closing price is 8695 yuan/ton, up 3.33% from the previous period; the trading volume is 1473993 lots, up 54.58%; the open interest is 402890 lots, up 9.54%. SI09 - 11 spread is 90 yuan/ton, up 28.57% [2][13][15]. Spot Data - The prices of 553 and 421 industrial silicon in different regions have increased to varying degrees. For example, the price of East China 553 is 8850 yuan/ton, up 1.14%. The East China 553 basis is 435 yuan/ton, up 55.36%, and the East China 421 - 553 spread is 350 yuan/ton, unchanged [17]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total warehouse receipts are 50090 lots, down 139 lots or 3.58% from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventories in different delivery warehouses have different changes [24]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The polysilicon main contract also shows wide - range fluctuations, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 44.99%, a daily increase of 0.01%, and the current volatility at the 84.73% historical percentile in 3 years. The main contract closing price is 41765 yuan/ton, up 1.05%. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts have different changes. PS08 - 09 spread is 320 yuan/ton, down 3.03% [2][27][29]. Spot Data - The prices of different types of polysilicon, such as P - type and N - type, have different daily changes. For example, the N - type polysilicon price index is 43.45 yuan/kg, down 3.01% [34]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The polysilicon main contract basis is 1685 yuan/ton, down 51.44% from the previous period. The warehouse receipts in different regions remain unchanged [41][43]. Risk Management Strategies - For inventory management of industrial silicon and polysilicon, when product inventory is high, strategies include shorting futures, selling call options, and buying out - of - the - money put options. For procurement management, when there is a risk of rising raw material prices, strategies include buying forward futures contracts, selling put options, and buying out - of - the - money call options [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity market is strong, showing a resonant upward trend. Fundamentally, caustic soda has strengthened in the near - term, and the decline in liquid chlorine has led to cost increases. Shandong's liquid caustic soda inventory is low year - on - year, with little spot pressure, and the market may anticipate the peak season. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm of downstream inventory replenishment. In the medium - to - long - term, as production resumes and new production capacity is gradually put into operation, supply - side pressure may gradually emerge [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2200 - 2600. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.38%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility over 3 years is 6.6% [3]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can sell SH2509 call options at a 50% hedging ratio in the 2600 - 2650 range to collect premiums and short caustic soda futures to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell SH509C2600 call options at a 50% hedging ratio in the 60 - 70 range to lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy SH2509 futures at a 50% hedging ratio in the 2350 - 2400 range to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs. They can also sell SH509P2400 put options at a 50% hedging ratio in the 40 - 50 range to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [3]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Futures and Spot Price Information - **Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads**: On July 14, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2564 (up 28 or 1.1% from July 11), the 09 contract was 2496 (down 11 or - 0.44%), and the 01 contract was 2509 (up 33 or 1.33%). The monthly spread (5 - 9) was 40 (up 6), (9 - 1) was 20 (up 5), and (1 - 5) was - 60 (down 11) [5]. - **Base Prices**: The 05 contract base price (Shandong Jinling) was - 36 (up 5), the 09 contract was 4 (up 11), and the 01 contract was 54 (up 30) [6]. - **Factory Prices**: The 32% caustic soda factory price in Shandong Jinling on July 14, 2025, was 2563 (up 62.5 or 2.5% from July 11). The 50% caustic soda factory price of Jinling was 2660 (up 80 or 3.1%) [6][7]. - **Market Prices**: The flake caustic soda market prices in various regions remained unchanged on July 14, 2025, compared with July 11 [7]. 3.4 Caustic Soda Brand/Regional Spreads - On July 14, 2025, the spread between Shandong 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda was 98 (up 17.5), the spread between Jiangsu 49% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda was 13 (up 71), and the spread between Jiangsu - Shandong (32% caustic soda converted to 100%) was 244 (down 31.25) [8]. 3.5 Caustic Soda Futures Monthly Spread Seasonality - Seasonal charts of caustic soda futures monthly spreads (07 - 09), (09 - 11), (11 - 01), and (09 - 1) are provided, sourced from wind and Nanhua Research [10][11].

南华贵金属日报: 金震银涨 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年7月11日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属市场金震银涨，周边资产看，美指、美债收益率震荡略偏强，美股和比特币上涨，原油下跌， 南华有色金属大涨。最终COMEX黄金2508合约收报3333美元/盎司，+0.36%；美白银2509合约收报于 37.625美元/盎司，+2.72%。 SHFE黄金2510主力合约收报773.3元/克，+0.49%；SHFE白银2510合约收 8919元/千克，+0.22%。关税方面，特朗普对铜征收50%的关税，8月1日起生效，引发海外铜铜库存抢在8 月1日关税落地前运送至美国，铜市上涨，以及美国相交伦敦铜溢价走扩。8月"大限"前缅甸争取特朗普猛 砍关税，提议对美或可零关税。巴西总统：将与美国进行关税谈判，若无效将对等反制。美联储理事沃勒表 示，可以考虑7月降息，支持继续缩表，增加短期资产比重。沃勒是美联储当红理事，也是美国总统特朗普考 虑提名为下一任美联储主席的候选人之一。特朗普此前曾多次呼吁美联储降息。 【降息预期与基金持仓 】 降息预期总体稳定。据CME"美 ...