Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Views - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4,272 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.37%) from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China market was 4,382 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.11%); the spot basis in East China was 91 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -72 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the production profit of coal - made syngas EG was -144 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton [1]. - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 465,000 tons, up 6,000 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 363,000 tons, down 13,000 tons. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 85,000 tons, and the port inventory remained stable with a slight increase. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 94,000 tons [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load remains high, and there are still many overseas supply losses. There are two or more Saudi Arabian plants in shutdown or low - load operation, and some ocean - going cargoes are still postponed for shipment. The import volume from September to October may be revised down. On the demand side, the demand recovery is slow, and the order connection is insufficient. The polyester load is expected to increase slightly, but the increase may be limited [2]. - In September, the EG balance sheet is slightly balanced, and the main port inventory is expected to remain low. However, the advanced commissioning plans of two new plants, Yulong and Ningxia Changyi, suppress market sentiment [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,272 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the East China market was 4,382 yuan/ton. The spot basis in East China was 91 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -72 dollars/ton, and that of coal - made syngas EG was -144 yuan/ton [1]. International Spread - Not elaborated in the text. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - The demand recovery is slow, the order connection is insufficient, and the polyester load is expected to increase slightly, but the increase may be limited [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 465,000 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 363,000 tons. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 85,000 tons, and the planned arrival this week is 94,000 tons [1].

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Low inventory limits the downside, but the advanced commissioning plans of Yulong and Ningxia Changyi's new plants dampen market sentiment [3] - In September, the EG balance sheet is slightly in equilibrium, and the main port inventory is expected to remain low, but the advanced commissioning plans of new plants suppress the market [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4288 yuan/ton (+16 yuan/ton, +0.37% compared to the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 4377 yuan/ton (-1 yuan/ton, -0.02% compared to the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 102 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 72 dollars/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 8 dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was - 131 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 34 yuan/ton) [1] - The domestic ethylene glycol load remains high and stable, and there are still many supply losses overseas [2] International Price Difference - Not mentioned in the text Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - Current demand is recovering slowly with insufficient order connection. It is expected that the polyester load will stabilize and increase slightly, but the increase may be limited. Pay attention to the time of concentrated order placement in the later period [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 46.5 tons (a month - on - month increase of 0.6 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 36.3 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1.3 tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 8.5 tons, and the port inventory remained stable with a slight increase. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 9.4 tons, with a neutral arrival volume [1] - In September, the main port inventory is expected to remain low, but the advanced commissioning plans of new plants suppress the market [2]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, the inventory level of inland methanol enterprises decreased due to pre - National Day holiday stocking by middle and downstream industries and increased external procurement by some olefin enterprises in Inner Mongolia. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and it is expected to keep the accumulation rhythm this week. The import demand may be stable, and the specific accumulation amplitude depends on the unloading speed of foreign vessels. The start - up rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin is expected to rise after hedging. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2410 in the short term [3] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2375 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 22 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 805,395 lots, an increase of 21,504 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 148,677 lots, a decrease of 36,491 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 16,131, unchanged [3] 2. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2295 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2135 yuan/ton, up 17.5 yuan. The East - West price difference is 160 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 80 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 265 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars; in Southeast Asia, it is 326 dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 293 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia is - 61 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.04 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.08 dollars [3] 4. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 108.95 tons, up 8.72 tons; at South China ports, it is 46.08 tons, up 3.54 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 1.19 yuan/ton, down 15.09 yuan. The monthly import volume is 110.27 tons, down 11.75 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 342,600 tons, up 1500 tons. The methanol enterprise start - up rate is 84.58%, down 0.26% [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of formaldehyde is 43.13%, up 5.4%; dimethyl ether is 4.86%, up 0.03%; acetic acid is 83.11%, down 1.13%; MTBE is 61.69%, down 0.53%; olefins is 81.57%, down 3.15%. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefin is - 955 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan [3] 6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 12.72%, up 0.38%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.57%, down 0.88%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 15.54%, up 0.06%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 15.55%, up 0.07% [3] 7. Industry News - As of September 10, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 34.26 tons, down 0.45 tons (1.31% MoM); the orders to be delivered were 25.07 tons, up 0.94 tons (3.91% MoM). The total port inventory was 155.03 tons, up 12.26 tons. As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 82.66%, down 3.16% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene: Domestic new capacity will be concentrated from August to September, domestic existing plants are operating, and the rhythm of imports has slowed down. Downstream pick-up has peaked and declined, and port inventories have also declined. However, the downstream of pure benzene is still weak, with large inventory pressure in the CPL - PA6 - nylon industry chain, and the operating rates of aniline, phenol, and styrene have decreased [1][2]. - Styrene: During the peak season, the downstream pick - up volume remains at a relatively high level, and the port inventory has declined. The plant will be shut down for maintenance in the first and middle of September, and the operating rate will decline, but it will rebound in the second half of September. The operating rates of PS and EPS among the downstream have recovered well, and the operating rate of ABS has also rebounded from a low level but with large inventory pressure [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Figures include pure benzene's main basis, main futures contract price, main contract basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of pure benzene, as well as EB's main contract trend and basis, main contract basis, and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of styrene [8][15][17] II. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between FOB Korea price of pure benzene and CFR Japan price of naphtha, non - integrated production profit of styrene, the difference between FOB US Gulf and FOB Korea prices of pure benzene, the difference between FOB US Gulf and CFR China prices of pure benzene, the difference between FOB Rotterdam and CFR China prices of pure benzene, import profits of pure benzene and styrene, and the differences between FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China prices of styrene [20][23][34] III. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show the East China port inventory and operating rate of pure benzene, and the East China port inventory, commercial inventory, factory inventory, and operating rate of styrene [39][41][44] IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - Figures present the operating rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [52][55][57] V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Figures display the operating rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, as well as the production profits of PA6, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [62][69][75] Strategies - Unilateral: None [3] - Basis and Inter - period: Do positive spreads for the EB2510 - EB2511 spread when it is low [3] - Cross - variety: Expand the EB2510 - BZ2603 spread when it is low in the short term [3]

Oil Industry - International oil prices rebounded overnight, with Brent 11 contract rising by 0.88%. Geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and potential US sanctions on Russia are increasing, providing short-term support to the oil market [1] - However, medium-term supply-demand pressures are expected to increase, with projected global oil market surpluses of 1.64 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2.67 million barrels per day in 2026. The most significant surplus pressure is anticipated in the first quarter of next year [1] - Global oil inventories have increased by 1.2% since the beginning of the second half of the year, confirming ongoing expectations of a loose balance sheet [1] Precious Metals - Precious metals maintained strength overnight, with market pricing indicating that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times this year. Focus is on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and Powell's guidance on future paths [2] Copper Industry - Copper prices reached a new high for the year, driven by technical breakthroughs and active trading in LME special warehouses, supported by new US-China negotiations and rising precious metal prices [3] - Domestic industrial value added continued to slow down, with SMM copper social inventory increasing to 154,200 tons [3] Aluminum Industry - Shanghai aluminum showed a strong oscillation, with downstream operations continuing to seasonally recover, although aluminum ingot inventories remain low [4] - The market is closely monitoring seasonal demand feedback as the short-term price is expected to test resistance at the March high [4] Zinc Industry - LME zinc inventories are at a low of 50,000 tons, with tight overseas spot markets and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts driving a rebound in zinc prices [7] - Domestic zinc prices are under pressure from weak fundamentals, with a narrow fluctuation above 22,000 [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices rebounded with general trading activity, as total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 138,500 tons, while downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 58,000 tons [11] - The market is cautiously optimistic about short-term price support, but attention is needed on external changes for long-term direction [11] Steel Industry - Steel prices continued to rebound, with rebar demand and production both declining, while hot-rolled demand significantly improved [14] - High furnace production has alleviated negative feedback pressure, but overall demand remains weak, with steel exports maintaining high levels [14] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices rose overnight, with global shipments significantly increasing, reaching a new weekly high for the year [15] - Domestic port arrivals slightly decreased, but terminal demand showed a slight recovery, supporting iron ore demand [15] Fertilizer Industry - Urea production has slightly increased due to the recovery of previously shut down facilities, maintaining a sufficient supply [23] - Industrial demand is recovering, with agricultural downstream showing signs of replenishment, particularly in the Northeast market [23] Agricultural Products - The soybean market is experiencing fluctuations as US-China trade negotiations continue, with USDA's September supply and demand report showing a slight decrease in yield but an increase in ending stocks [35] - Domestic soybean meal inventory has risen to 1.1362 million tons, indicating ample supply [35] Cotton Industry - US cotton prices showed a slight increase, with the USDA's September report indicating an upward adjustment in both production and consumption [42] - Domestic cotton sales are stable, with attention on the upcoming new cotton harvest and its impact on market dynamics [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is influenced by geopolitical factors and fundamental supply - demand situations. Most products in the sector are recommended to hold short - positions, mainly due to the high probability of supply - demand surplus in the second half of the year, especially for crude oil. Short - term geopolitical disturbances should not be over - emphasized, and investment decisions should be based on the mid - term fundamental situation [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: After a significant decline last week, a rebound on Friday night was related to geopolitical events. However, considering OPEC+ production increases and weakening US demand, the probability of supply - demand surplus in the second half of the year is high. The mid - term bearish view based on the fundamental surplus situation should be maintained [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation structure. The upper limit of the oscillation range is around 491. There is an opportunity to short at high prices near the upper limit of the range, with a stop - loss reference of 491 [2] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly level, and try short - selling at the upper limit of the range at the end of the day, with a stop - loss of 491 [2] (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The weekly fundamentals of benzene ethylene have not improved significantly. High profits, high production, and high inventory situations persist, and new device launches in September - October will increase supply pressure. The downward drive of fundamentals remains [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 7105, and the decline path remains unchanged [7] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a final stop - profit reference of 7105 [7] (3) Rubber - **Logic**: Overseas raw material prices have declined, weakening cost support. Although inventory is decreasing, the year - on - year high inventory pressure still exists. The fundamentals are currently neutral [9] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation structure, and the hourly - level is facing a decline structure. After a rebound today, pay attention to the opportunity to short if it fails to break through the hourly - level pressure of 16050 at night [9] - **Strategy**: Stop - loss the 15 - minute short - positions, and then pay attention to short - selling opportunities if it fails to break through the hourly - level pressure [9] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The supply - demand of synthetic rubber itself has no major contradictions. The main concern is the cost side, especially butadiene. With the arrival of ship cargoes and future capacity expansion, the cost side is bearish [12] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 11760, and there is potential for further decline [15] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 11760 [15] (5) PX - **Logic**: PX profits have recovered, and the operating rate has increased. The demand recovery is slower than expected. The main factor to watch is the cost - side drive from crude oil [18] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term decline structure is being tested. Pay attention to the 15 - minute upper limit pressure of 6770 [20] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle [20] (6) PTA - **Logic**: PTA supply has increased, and demand is stable. The terminal operating rate in the peak season is weaker than expected. The main factor to watch is the cost - side drive from crude oil [22] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 4700 [22] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 4700 [22] (7) PP - **Logic**: Demand has improved slightly in the peak season, but supply pressure has increased due to new capacity launches. Pay attention to the cost - side collapse logic [25] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 6985 [26] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [26] (8) Methanol - **Logic**: High operating rates and high imports have led to high inventory pressure. Although downstream MTO profits have improved, the bearish fundamental pattern remains [30] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term decline/oscillation structure, and the short - term is in a decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 2435 [30] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle cautiously, with a final stop - profit reference of 2435 [30] (9) PVC - **Logic**: High production and high inventory patterns persist due to high caustic soda profits and weak downstream demand [31] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term rise structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 4930 [33] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [33] (10) EG - **Logic**: Current supply - demand contradictions are not significant, but supply pressure may increase in the future. Pay attention to the impact of new capacity launches [34] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a decline structure. The short - term pressure is 4335 [34] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 4335 [34] (11) Plastic - **Logic**: New capacity has increased supply pressure, and demand recovery in the peak season is limited. Further decline requires the cost - side crude oil to continue to weaken [36] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 7270 [36] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 7270 [36] (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: Supply is continuously increasing, and the high - production and high - inventory pattern remains. Although the previous over - valuation has been corrected, there is no upward drive in the short term [39] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the pressure, and the decline structure remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is 1320 [39] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [39] (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supply is abundant, but demand has improved, and inventory pressure has been relieved. Mid - term attention should be paid to the impact of device maintenance and peak - season demand [43] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a decline structure. The daily oscillation did not change the decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 2625 [43] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 2625 [43]

Oil Industry - International oil prices rebounded last week, with Brent 11 contract rising by 1.84% while SC10 contract fell by 1.39%. The market remains influenced by geopolitical tensions and mid-term oversupply pressures [2] Precious Metals - The market has fully priced in the expectation of three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, leading to a strong performance in precious metals, although volatility has increased [3] Copper - Copper prices saw a pullback after a spike, with high overseas inventory levels affecting market sentiment. Domestic production capacity is stabilizing, and attention is on current copper prices and premiums [4] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices followed the overall strength in non-ferrous metals, breaking through the 21,000 yuan mark. Seasonal demand recovery is expected, with aluminum ingot inventory likely remaining low [5] Alumina - Alumina production capacity exceeds 96 million tons, with rising industry inventory levels. The market is experiencing significant oversupply, leading to price declines [6] Zinc - LME zinc inventory is low, and external supply is tight. The market is experiencing a rebound, but domestic prices lag behind. Short-term strategies should focus on macroeconomic influences [8] Lead - Lead production is expected to decrease due to factory repairs, easing supply pressure. However, demand remains weak, with limited purchasing activity from downstream sectors [9] Steel Industry - Steel prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with rebar demand and production continuing to decline. The construction sector is slowing down, impacting overall demand [15][16] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are fluctuating, with stable port inventories and a slight recovery in demand. Steel mills are expected to continue replenishing inventories in the short term [16] Fertilizer Industry - Urea prices are declining due to weak market sentiment and high inventory levels among producers. Agricultural demand remains low, leading to a continuation of weak market conditions [25] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are experiencing low volatility, with market sentiment improving slightly. Total inventory levels are decreasing, indicating potential demand recovery [12] Agricultural Products - The USDA report indicates a slight increase in soybean production despite lower yield estimates. Market sentiment remains cautious as weather conditions are expected to impact future supply [37] Cotton - Cotton prices are fluctuating, with expectations of a large new crop. The market is closely monitoring the purchasing behavior of ginners as new cotton comes to market [44] Sugar - Sugar prices are under pressure due to high production levels in Brazil, while domestic sugar sales are increasing, leading to lower inventory levels [45]

成本端疲软弱化利多预期，PX&PTA期现承压运行 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 需求端：尽管轻纺城单日成交环比明显放量，但当前聚酯环节仍处需求博 弈期。下游聚酯工厂负荷虽维持刚性，但坯布订单传导节奏偏慢导致涤丝 产销波动较大，旺季需求预期尚未被完全兑现。坯布库存消化进程与终端 消费增量能否匹配仍待验证，短期聚酯环节对PTA的采购支撑力度边际转 弱。 库存端：PTA工厂库存延续累库趋势，社会库存维持高位表明现货流动性压 力未减。加工费持续低位运行制约工厂减产意愿，而PX库存同步攀升导致 产业链上游积压压力向中游传导。在供需宽松格局下，库存矛盾仍将压制 现货贴水修复空间，被动累库节奏或延续至旺季订单落地阶段。 2. 聚酯 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 09月12日，PX 主力合约收6712.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.97%，基差 为-47.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4648.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.85%， 基差为-78.0元/吨。 成本 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. A - shares may enter a high - level shock pattern after a large increase, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental drive is needed to choose a direction. The bond market shows a differentiated trend with the long - end being weak and the short - end being strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation. Silver is in the $40 - 42 range for short - term trading [2]. - The shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as falling apparent demand and coking coal resumption. Iron ore prices are strong, while coking coal and coke prices are weak [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts heats up again. The prices of base metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are affected by different factors [2]. - The oil market is worried about marginal supply increments, dragging oil prices down. The chemical products market has different supply - demand situations and price trends [2]. - The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends for different varieties [2]. - Special commodities like soda ash, glass, and rubber have different market performances and trading suggestions [2]. - In the new energy sector, polysilicon has a rising price due to increasing production cut expectations, and lithium carbonate maintains a tight balance [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: After a large increase, A - shares may enter a high - level shock. Sell near - month put options at support levels to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is at a critical point. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and focus on changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, buy cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money options. For silver, conduct short - term band trading in the $40 - 42 range and sell out - of - the - money options at high volatility [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are suppressed. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy iron ore 2601 contracts at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and consider an iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Sell coking coal 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170, and the iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy is favorable [2]. - **Coke**: Sell coke 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650, and the iron ore - coke long - short strategy is favorable [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. The main contract reference range is 79500 - 81500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Alloys**: Aluminum prices are affected by macro - factors and cost support, with different reference ranges for different contracts [2]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of interest rate cuts improves, boosting zinc prices. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [2]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals remain strong, and the tin price is in a high - level shock. The operating range is 285000 - 265000 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about marginal supply increments drag oil prices down. Adopt a short - side strategy and pay attention to support levels [2]. - **Urea**: High short - term supply pressure drags down the price. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the support level of 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX and PTA**: The supply - demand expectations in September are different, and the prices are in a shock range. For PTA, consider a TA1 - 5 rolling reverse spread strategy [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand situations and trading suggestions, such as short - fiber, bottle - grade polyester, ethylene glycol, etc. [2] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Different grains and oils are affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends and trading suggestions [2]. - **Sugar and Cotton**: Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply prospects, and cotton has low old - crop inventories, with different trading suggestions [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: The livestock and poultry products market is affected by factors such as supply - demand contradictions and sales rhythms, with different price trends [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: The market lacks a main trading logic and is in a narrow - range shock. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: The market is affected by production lines and spot market sentiment. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment fades, and rubber prices are in a shock - down trend. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Due to increasing production cut expectations, the price is rising. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market maintains a tight balance. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, and the main contract reference range is 70000 - 72000 yuan [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - New ethylene glycol (EG) plant starts trial production ahead of schedule, putting pressure on market sentiment [1] - Domestic EG supply load has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term, with the syngas load expected to decline in September; overseas supply losses are still significant, and there is room to revise down imports from September to October [2] - Current demand recovery is slow with insufficient order connections. Polyester load is expected to increase slightly but with limited upside [2] - The September EG balance sheet is slightly balanced, and main port inventories are expected to remain low [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - EG main contract closed at 4,302 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.39%) from the previous trading day; EG spot price in East China was 4,422 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.41%); the spot basis was 106 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - Ethylene-based EG production profit was -$61/ton, unchanged from the previous day; coal-based syngas EG production profit was -69 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [1] International Price Difference - No specific data provided Downstream Sales and Operating Rate - No specific data provided Inventory Data - According to CCF, MEG inventory at East China main ports was 45.9 tons, up 1.0 tons from the previous week; according to Longzhong, it was 36.3 tons, down 1.3 tons [1] - As of September 11, the total MEG inventory at East China main ports was 36.32 tons, down 2.36 tons from Monday and 1.31 tons from last Thursday [1]