Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment in the U.S. is characterized by a weak balance in the labor market, with December non-farm employment growth at 50,000, below expectations of 73,000, and the unemployment rate decreasing to 4.4% [2][3][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Employment Trends**: The overall employment growth is slowing down, with private sector job creation concentrated mainly in the healthcare industry. Other sectors are experiencing contraction, particularly manufacturing, which has seen a continuous decline in jobs [3][4][5]. - **Government and Private Sector Employment**: Both government and private sector employment are declining, with the average monthly job creation in the private sector dropping from 203,000 in January 2025 to 29,000 in December 2025. Government jobs have also decreased significantly [4][12]. - **Impact of Policies**: The slowdown in job growth is attributed to several factors, including Trump's tariff policies, tightened immigration, and government layoffs. The rapid advancement of AI technology is leading companies to replace labor with technology, further reducing job demand [5][6]. - **Manufacturing Sector**: The manufacturing sector has not benefited from the promised "manufacturing resurgence" under Trump's administration, with a total job loss of 68,000 in 2025. The ISM manufacturing PMI has remained below 50 for ten consecutive months, indicating ongoing contraction [4][15][16]. - **Future Employment Outlook**: The expectation for 2026 is continued low growth in employment, with demand-side pressures unlikely to reverse in the short term. Even potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may have limited impact on employment [5][8]. Additional Important Insights - **AI and Productivity**: There is a debate regarding whether the rapid development of AI has significantly increased labor productivity. Despite a strong GDP growth rate of 4.3% in Q3 2025, the growth is primarily driven by AI-related investments and consumer spending supported by wealth effects, indicating a narrow growth structure [6]. - **Monetary Policy Stance**: The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current policy stance in January, with the next potential rate cut anticipated in March. The overall employment situation, while slowing, has not deteriorated enough to prompt immediate action [8][9]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the U.S. labor market, the impact of government policies, and the outlook for future employment and economic growth.

本报记者 邹 松 在联合钢铁厂，中乌员工讨论技术细节。 本 报记者 邹 松摄 工作日一大早，乌干达中乌姆巴莱工业园大门前人潮涌动，东部布塔莱贾地区的青年们汇聚到工业园内 的车间厂房。忙碌有序的生产现场，成为乌干达工业化进程的一个缩影。 奠基于2018年的中乌姆巴莱工业园，入驻企业70多家，吸纳本地员工万余名，如今已是东非地区知名的 国家级工业园。乌干达总统穆塞韦尼近期考察园区时强调："工业园区模式是乌干达实现经济现代化的 重要路径。中乌姆巴莱工业园的成功实践，为乌干达工业化提供了宝贵经验，乌中合作的一系列成就彰 显非中友谊在共同迈向现代化的进程中历久弥坚。" "汇聚的行业，与人民的生活息息相关" "爬爬垫"是一种为婴幼儿爬行而设计制造的塑料垫。在2021年中乌姆巴莱工业园内的格瑞斯工厂"爬爬 垫"生产线投产前，乌干达消费者几乎从未听说过这种产品，当地家庭也很少能买得起地毯供婴幼儿爬 行玩耍。格瑞斯工厂营销经理亨利·卡勒曼回忆说："当时别说是消费者，大多本地批发商也没见过这种 产品。"如今，乌干达民众对"爬爬垫"已不陌生。 走进格瑞斯工厂的生产车间，记者看到了"爬爬垫"制造的全过程：一包包材料通过发泡膜机定型为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 is pivotal for China's economy, showcasing resilience and vitality amidst various challenges, while 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Economic Development - China is committed to high-quality development, responding calmly to unprecedented challenges such as trade wars, and is determined to expand its openness [1] - The construction of a unified national market is crucial for promoting high-quality development and efficient resource allocation [3][4] Market Dynamics - The establishment of a unified national market is seen as a key support for the new development pattern, facilitating smoother flow of goods and resources [3] - Despite progress, hidden barriers still exist in market access and regulatory enforcement, necessitating ongoing efforts to address these issues [4] Policy Initiatives - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes breaking down barriers to market construction and improving the regulatory framework [4][5] - The introduction of the "Private Economy Promotion Law" in May 2025 marks a significant step in supporting the private sector, ensuring equal treatment in market competition [6] Consumer Demand - Expanding domestic demand is a central theme for 2025, with a focus on boosting consumption and investment efficiency [9][10] - Policies aimed at stimulating consumption have shown positive results, with retail sales increasing by 4% year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2025 [10] Investment Trends - Investment demand has weakened, particularly in real estate, but there is a shift towards high-quality investments in advanced manufacturing and green transformation [11] - The focus is on optimizing investment structure, moving from scale-based to efficiency-based investments [11] International Trade and Cooperation - China's high-level opening-up is characterized by mutual benefit and cooperation, with significant growth in service trade and foreign investment [13][15] - The number of international trade agreements and the expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative have strengthened China's position in global trade [14] Private Sector Engagement - Regular breakfast meetings between government officials and private sector leaders have facilitated effective communication and problem-solving [7] - New policies have been introduced to lower barriers for private enterprises in key sectors, enhancing their role in national projects [8]

在部署协同上，贵州印发年度工作要点、召开推进会统筹落实，联合开展数据知识产权试点，服务企业 超千家，登记数据知识产权786件。同时，5家企业入选5G工厂目录，贵阳市入选国家"制造业新型技术 改造城市试点"。 本报讯（记者 江婷婷）1月9日，记者从省工业和信息化厅获悉，2025年贵州工业领域数字化转型扎实 推进。截至2025年第三季度，全省两化融合发展水平达63.5，较2024年末提升3.4，排名全国第14位、西 部第2位（与重庆并列）。 过去一年，贵州聚焦"8+4"重点行业，累计培育50余个工业大模型典型应用场景，打造5个先进级、1个 卓越级智能工厂，建成100个数字车间，推动1200家规上企业完成数字化改造。全省数字化研发设计工 具普及率、关键工序数控化率分别提升至81%、65.2%，较2024年末提高1.8和2.4个百分点。 转自：贵州日报 服务指导方面，专项资金支持大模型、智能工厂等项目建设，完成1000家企业"智改数转"评估诊断，新 增两化融合、智能制造评估企业1262家、211家，遴选51个数字化转型典型案例。 ...

Overview - The U.S. added 50,000 non-farm jobs in December, slightly below the expected 65,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% [1][7] - The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.4% [7][10] - Market reactions were muted following the data release, with slight fluctuations in the 10-year Treasury yield and the dollar index [1][10] Structure: Understanding the Divergence Between Non-Farm Employment and Unemployment Rate - December's employment in the goods-producing sector was weak, influenced by tariff impacts and other factors [18][20] - The construction sector saw a decrease of 11,000 jobs, while manufacturing employment declined further, reflecting the lagging effects of tariffs [18][20] - Private service sector jobs increased by 58,000, up from 32,000 in the previous month [18][20] - The decline in the unemployment rate to 4.4% was primarily due to tightening labor supply and temporary layoffs being reversed [25][28] Outlook: U.S. Economy Continues "Low-Growth Balance" and Fed Rate Cut Expectations May Be "Delayed" - The characteristics of the U.S. economy in 2026 may include a "low-growth balance" in employment and "jobless prosperity" [28][30] - The anticipated tax cuts in the first half of 2026 could stimulate consumer spending and inflation, potentially leading to a delayed pace of Fed rate cuts [30][34] - The market has adjusted its forecast for Fed rate cuts in 2026 from 2.25 times to 2.10 times following the employment data release [30][34]

交易咨询号：Z0022772 审核：萧勇辉 从业资格号：F03091536 交易咨询号：Z0019917 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货宏观周报 物价温和回升 央行持续购金 20260111 作者：石舒宇 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F03117664 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 • 2025年12月全国居民消费价格（CPI）呈现温和上涨态势，同比涨幅0.8%，较11月扩大0.1个百分点，回升至2023年3月以来 新高，环比也由降转涨至0.2%。从结构上看，食品价格上涨1. ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, Guangxi's general public budget revenue is projected to reach 192.205 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, while expenditures are expected to total 674.218 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.2%, indicating a solid foundation for the "14th Five-Year Plan" with continuous growth in fiscal revenue and expenditure for 12 months [1] Group 1: Fiscal Performance - The general public budget revenue for 2025 is expected to be 192.205 billion yuan, a 4.6% increase year-on-year [1] - General public budget expenditure is projected at 674.218 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.2% year-on-year growth [1] - The fiscal revenue and expenditure growth rate has achieved continuous growth for 12 months, a first in nearly six years [1] Group 2: Investment in Major Projects - Guangxi plans to allocate over 37.3 billion yuan to major projects such as the Pinglu Canal and Beibu Gulf International Gateway Port [1] - More than 200.75 billion yuan will be used to support a new round of industrial revitalization and the development of industrial parks [1] - A total of 296.46 billion yuan will be coordinated to support the implementation of "two new" policies and accelerate the landing of "two heavy" projects [1] Group 3: Support for Enterprises - In 2025, tax reductions and refunds for technology innovation and manufacturing development are estimated to exceed 26 billion yuan [2] - Administrative and institutional fee income has decreased by 13.9% year-on-year, enhancing market vitality [2] - Over 1.151 billion yuan in preferential loans have been issued to benefit more than 44,000 business entities, reducing financing costs by over 1.2 billion yuan [2] Group 4: Technological Innovation and Development - Guangxi has established 11 policy measures aimed at allocating 15 billion yuan annually, totaling nearly 45 billion yuan over three years to support the development of new productive forces [3] - Funding for digital construction in Guangxi is set at 700 million yuan, a 133.3% increase year-on-year, to support AI infrastructure and international cooperation [3] - 30 billion yuan is allocated for innovation-driven development and technology development, promoting the integration of technological and industrial innovation [3] Group 5: Social Welfare Investment - In 2025, social welfare expenditure is projected to reach 539.235 billion yuan, accounting for 80% of general public budget expenditure, marking a historical high [3] - Expenditures in key areas such as transportation, energy conservation, social security, and cultural tourism have all seen double-digit growth [3] - Education spending is expected to be 131.71 billion yuan, a 7.4% increase, while social security and employment spending is projected at 125.144 billion yuan, growing by 10.7% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Chinese capital market has shown strong recovery momentum and resilient growth, with the total number of A-share listed companies reaching 5,469 and total market capitalization rising to 123 trillion yuan by the end of 2025 [1] - In 2025, 116 new companies were listed, while the total market capitalization of the existing 5,353 companies grew by 22.5% year-on-year, reflecting a significant recovery in market sentiment [1] - The average price-to-book ratio of A-share companies increased from 3.3 at the beginning of the year to 4.4, indicating a steady rise in market valuation [3] Group 2 - High-tech enterprises, particularly in manufacturing, scientific research, and technical services, demonstrated remarkable market performance, with total market capitalization increasing by 33.3% and 32.1% respectively, contributing to a 4.2 percentage point and 0.1 percentage point increase in their share of A-share market capitalization [3] - Nearly half of the listed companies in manufacturing and scientific research and technical services achieved a net asset return rate greater than 5%, showcasing strong overall performance [3] - The introduction of new regulations and guidelines has institutionalized market capitalization management, enhancing the proactive planning awareness of listed companies and reflecting national strategic directions [4] Group 3 - The governance structure of listed companies has been continuously improved, with over 98% of companies holding annual shareholder meetings by June 30, and more than 70% of boards consisting of 7 or 9 members [5] - Over 99% of companies disclosed their 2024 audit reports and internal control audit reports as required, with a non-qualified opinion rate exceeding 96% [5] - The steady growth of the A-share market capitalization to 123 trillion yuan and the over 20% growth of existing companies' market capitalization are seen as results of market sentiment recovery and the resonance of corporate profitability with national economic transformation [5]

Group 1 - In 2025, the general public budget revenue in Guangxi is projected to reach 192.205 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, while general public budget expenditure is expected to be 674.218 billion yuan, up 4.2%, marking the first time in nearly six years that both revenue and expenditure have shown continuous growth for 12 months [2] - Guangxi plans to allocate over 373 billion yuan to major projects such as the Pinglu Canal and the Beibu Gulf International Gateway Port, and over 200.75 billion yuan to support a new round of industrial revitalization and industrial park development [2] - The region will also utilize 296.46 billion yuan in special long-term bonds and matching funds to support the implementation of "two new" policies and accelerate the landing of "two heavy" projects, aiming to boost consumption and stimulate domestic demand [2] Group 2 - In 2025, the total tax reductions and refunds for supporting technological innovation and manufacturing development are estimated to exceed 26 billion yuan, with administrative fees decreasing by 13.9% year-on-year, enhancing market vitality [3] - The financial support plan for enterprises aims to provide over 115.1 billion yuan in subsidized loans, benefiting more than 44,000 business entities and reducing financing costs by over 1.2 billion yuan [3] - The Guangxi government investment guidance fund has facilitated investments in 147 local enterprises, including 45 high-tech companies and 34 specialized and innovative small enterprises [3] Group 3 - Guangxi has established 11 policy measures to support the development of new productive forces, with an annual budget of 15 billion yuan, totaling nearly 45 billion yuan over three years [4] - The funding for digital construction in Guangxi is set at 700 million yuan, a 133.3% increase year-on-year, aimed at supporting artificial intelligence infrastructure and international cooperation [4] - In 2025, social spending in Guangxi is projected to reach 539.235 billion yuan, accounting for 80% of general public budget expenditure, with significant increases in education, social security, and health spending [4]

Core Viewpoint - Suzhou is advancing its "Three Services" initiative to enhance the business environment, with a focus on optimizing 90 measures outlined in the "Action Plan for Building a First-Class Business Environment (2026)" [1] Group 1: Three Services Initiative - The "Three Services" initiative includes services for enterprises, projects, and parks, aiming to address challenges in financing, labor, and land use [1] - The enterprise service action will proactively resolve issues related to financing, labor, and land [1] - The project service action will enhance the quality and efficiency of the entire lifecycle of project attraction, landing, commencement, and production [1] Group 2: Platforms and Mechanisms - Suzhou plans to create six major platforms, including comprehensive enterprise services and shared investment resources [1] - Five major mechanisms will be established to facilitate direct communication between government and enterprises, as well as coordinated investment efforts [1] Group 3: Action Plan and Market Environment - The action plan focuses on 15 areas, including the construction of a unified national market and promoting market-oriented resource allocation reforms [1] - It proposes a series of optimization measures to eliminate entry barriers and promote fair competition [1] Group 4: Investment Goals - In 2025, Suzhou aims to sign 2,256 manufacturing projects with investments exceeding 1 billion yuan, totaling 6,029 billion yuan [1] - For the current year, Suzhou targets to attract over 2,400 manufacturing projects with investments exceeding 1 billion yuan [1]