Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **gold and silver markets**, as well as broader **financial market trends** influenced by U.S. monetary policy and economic conditions. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Dynamics**: The report highlights a significant drop in the stock market and a rise in the dollar, alongside an unexpected announcement regarding the Federal Reserve's leadership transition, which has implications for monetary policy [1][3]. - **Dollar Weakness**: Since Trump's inauguration, the dollar has depreciated by **12%**, which has positively impacted manufacturing in key swing states [3]. - **Historical Performance**: The report outlines that during past dollar bear markets, gold and emerging market stocks have significantly outperformed other assets, with average returns of **141%** for gold and **104%** for EM stocks [6][7]. - **Investment Strategy**: A shift in investment strategy from a traditional 60/40 portfolio to a diversified 25/25/25/25 allocation has yielded a **10-year return of 8.7%**, marking the best performance since 1992 [9]. - **Future Predictions**: Hartnett anticipates that the best trades for 2026 will include long positions in large and mid-cap bonds, international stocks, and gold, as well as short positions in the dollar and certain tech bonds [21][23][27]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Political and Economic Trends**: The report discusses various macroeconomic trends, including political populism, globalization shifts, and the transition of the Federal Reserve's independence to a more compliant stance [17][30]. - **Liquidity and Market Sentiment**: There is a noted concern about excessive optimism in the market, with liquidity conditions and potential economic prosperity being key factors influencing investor sentiment [32]. - **Debt and Economic Growth**: The U.S. faces significant debt levels, with a nominal GDP of **$31 trillion** and a national debt increase of **$15 trillion** over the past five years [27]. - **Market Risks**: The report warns of potential capital outflows if non-U.S. asset allocators reduce their stock and bond holdings by just **5%**, which could lead to a **$1.5 trillion** capital outflow [20]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the gold and silver markets, as well as broader economic trends.

Report Summary 1. Hot News - Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, but some senators oppose the nomination unless the investigation against Powell is dropped. Warsh's policy stance may combine rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction [2] - In 2025, China's national fiscal revenue was 21.6 trillion yuan, down 1.7% year - on - year, with securities transaction stamp duty revenue up 57.8% to 203.5 billion yuan. Fiscal expenditure was 28.74 trillion yuan, up 1% year - on - year, and about 10 billion yuan in child - rearing subsidies were issued [2] - China's official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points month - on - month; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points; and the composite PMI output index was 49.8%, down 0.9 percentage points [3] - Trump declares a national emergency, threatening to impose ad - valorem tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba, and warns of potential 50% tariffs on Canadian planes [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the daily price limit of silver futures contracts from 2605 to 2701 to 17% and the margin ratios for hedging and general positions to 18% and 19% respectively from the close of February 3 [3] 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch: urea, lithium carbonate, coking coal, silver, PVC [4] - Night session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 1.85%, precious metals rose 38.07%, oilseeds rose 7.90%, soft commodities rose 2.17%, non - ferrous metals rose 26.49%, coal - coking - steel - ore rose 8.22%, energy rose 2.59%, chemicals rose 9.23%, grains rose 1.00%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.48% [4] 3. Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days from January 26 to January 30, 2026 [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.96% daily, 0% monthly, and rose 3.76% year - to - date; S&P 500 fell 0.43% daily, 0% monthly, and rose 1.37% year - to - date; Hang Seng Index fell 2.08% daily, 0% monthly, and rose 6.85% year - to - date, etc. [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.06%, 5 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.01%, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures were flat [6] - Commodities: CRB commodity index fell 1.12% daily, 0% monthly, and rose 7.13% year - to - date; WTI crude oil rose 0.37% daily, 0% monthly, and rose 14.19% year - to - date; London spot gold fell 9.25% daily, 0% monthly, and rose 13.01% year - to - date [6] - Others: US dollar index rose 0.99% daily, 0% monthly, and fell 1.17% year - to - date; CBOE volatility index rose 3.32% daily, 0% monthly, and rose 16.66% year - to - date [6] 5. Stock Market Risk Appetite and Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold and silver, LME copper, etc., as well as the risk premium of the stock market [7]

Core Viewpoint - The construction of zero-carbon factories is a crucial strategy for enhancing the green and low-carbon development level of industries and improving their competitiveness in the green and low-carbon sector. The recent issuance of the "Guiding Opinions on the Construction of Zero-Carbon Factories" by five departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, marks a significant step towards promoting carbon reduction and green transformation in key industries [1][2]. Group 1: Goals and Pathways - The "Guiding Opinions" systematically outline the main goals and construction pathways for zero-carbon factory development in China, emphasizing the importance of carbon reduction and efficiency enhancement [1]. - The construction of zero-carbon factories is seen as a means to cultivate new productive forces and support the achievement of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals [1]. Group 2: Technological Innovation - Zero-carbon factory construction relies on technological innovation, structural adjustments, and management optimization to continuously reduce carbon dioxide emissions within factories [2][3]. - The focus is on achieving near-zero emissions rather than absolute zero, with an emphasis on continuous improvement under current technological and economic conditions [2]. Group 3: Standards and Management - The success of zero-carbon factory construction hinges on having standards for benchmarking, focusing on both source reduction and process decarbonization [4]. - The "Guiding Opinions" require factories to meet energy efficiency standards and implement management optimizations to ensure efficient operation of equipment [4][5]. Group 4: Supply Chain Collaboration - The "Guiding Opinions" advocate for a collaborative approach to carbon reduction across supply chains, emphasizing the analysis of carbon footprints of key products and the adoption of green low-carbon solutions in procurement and logistics [5][6]. - A digital energy and carbon management center is recommended to enhance data management capabilities, supporting process control and effectiveness evaluation [5][6]. Group 5: Financial and Policy Support - The construction of zero-carbon factories involves integrated innovation in policies, standards, and business models, with a focus on creating a collaborative ecosystem for carbon reduction [7]. - The "Guiding Opinions" highlight the role of green finance in supporting zero-carbon factory construction, including mechanisms for preferential credit and innovative financial products to lower transformation costs for enterprises [7][8]. Group 6: Carbon Offset Principles - The "Guiding Opinions" establish the principle of "reduce as much as possible, continuously improve," emphasizing that carbon offsetting should only occur after all feasible reductions have been made [8].

今日必读🏛️部分议员质疑美联储新主席提名🏭中国1月制造业活动再陷收缩🪙黄金和白银遭遇猛烈抛售获取免费中文电子报《彭博财经早茶》，洞悉全球市场动态。Catch up on what's moving China's markets in our free Chinese language newsletter. https://t.co/Jurz2812uA ...

（来源：工人日报） 有分析人士认为，根据欧盟统计局的初步统计数据，2025年12月欧元区通胀率降至2.0%，剔除能源、 食品和烟酒价格的核心通胀率为2.3%，保持在欧洲央行设定的2%通胀目标左右。通胀下滑有助于减轻 民众生活压力，欧盟和欧洲多国推出的财政刺激措施也可能会继续起效。不过，欧洲经济仍面临多重挑 战。 首先是美国关税的压力仍持续存在。根据欧美达成的贸易协议，大多数欧盟输美商品将面临15%的关 税，这一税率其实并不低。而就在近日，欧洲议会决定暂缓批准欧美贸易协议。美国还多次威胁对欧盟 征收新的关税。可以预见，2026年欧美贸易还有很大不确定性。 其次是欧洲经济面临的结构性问题仍然待解，例如劳动力短缺、产业转型慢、竞争力下滑等。以德国为 例，受美国关税和能源成本高等因素影响，本就面临激烈竞争的德国制造和化工等产业生存艰难，不少 企业宣告裁员或破产，这导致德国2026年1月的失业人数达到12年来最高水平。美国的一些政策还导致 欧洲制造业外流。 有不少分析指出，2025年欧盟经济能够实现缓慢增长，与内需拉动有关。欧盟多个成员国加大了财政支 出，通胀缓解也减轻了价格压力，欧洲央行的降息举措同样刺激了投资。在此 ...

Core Insights - Modern artificial intelligence (AI) is a product of advanced computing and is transforming various industries, evolving from early symbolic approaches to deep learning and large-scale model training [1][4]. Group 1: Historical Development of AI - The pursuit of intelligence has deep historical roots, beginning with the creation of symbolic systems for communication, which allowed for the storage and transmission of complex information [2]. - The evolution of computing technology, starting from Turing's model to the first electronic computer ENIAC, laid the foundation for AI development [3]. - The emergence of industrial robots and expert systems in the 1960s to 1980s marked the transition of AI from information processing to practical applications [3]. Group 2: Current Trends in AI - The rise of large models, such as OpenAI's GPT-3 with 175 billion parameters, demonstrates the potential of scale in AI capabilities [4]. - AI is transitioning from narrow AI, represented by expert systems and deep learning, to general AI, with advancements in generative AI and autonomous machine evolution [4]. Group 3: AI in Manufacturing - AI is becoming integral to the manufacturing sector, with a significant increase in the application of large models and intelligent agents in industrial enterprises, projected to rise from 9.6% in 2024 to 47.5% in 2025 [7]. - The establishment of smart factories in China, with over 421 national-level demonstration factories, showcases the successful integration of AI and digital twin technologies [7]. Group 4: Challenges and Solutions - The development of practical AI faces challenges such as high technical barriers and unclear implementation paths [10]. - A proposed framework for advancing practical AI includes a "perception-cognition-decision-execution" system, emphasizing the need for accurate representation of physical entities and collaborative decision-making between large and small models [11]. Group 5: Policy and Standardization - The Chinese government is promoting AI integration across all industrial processes, emphasizing a comprehensive upgrade of traditional industries through AI [8]. - Establishing a unified standard system for practical AI is crucial for supporting large-scale development and ensuring effective integration across various sectors [12].

Group 1: Industrial Growth Targets and Strategies - The core objective for China's industrial sector is to achieve a medium to high-speed growth rate of around 5% in industrial added value by 2026, supported by new production capacities and policy measures [1][2] - Various provinces have set specific growth targets for 2026, such as Zhejiang aiming for a 6% increase in industrial added value and 8% growth in digital economy core industries [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes the importance of major industrial provinces like Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong in stabilizing the industrial economy, as they collectively account for over 60% of the national industrial added value [2][3] Group 2: Investment and Project Initiatives - Shanghai plans to initiate 133 industrial projects with a total investment of 110 billion yuan in 2026, focusing on large-scale projects to support the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4] - Hebei is set to implement a "Project Construction Year" in 2026, emphasizing the completion and effectiveness of key projects while promoting the development of emerging industries [3] - The overall manufacturing investment growth is expected to improve to between 3% and 5% in 2026, compared to a low of 0.6% in the previous year [5] Group 3: Emerging Industries and Future Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" prioritizes the establishment of a modern industrial system and the strengthening of the real economy, with a focus on developing emerging industries and future industries [6] - Various regions are actively deploying strategies to foster new growth points in industries such as 6G, quantum technology, and biomanufacturing, with Guangdong and Beijing leading initiatives in these areas [7][8] - The integration of technology and industry is expected to accelerate, with significant government support for artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, and renewable energy sectors [8]

宏 观 研 究 2026 年地方"两会"跟踪 国 内 经 济 相关研究 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com 侯倩楠 A0230524080006 houqn@swsresearch.com 联系人 社零方面，多数省份设定的目标高于 2025 年实际增速。新疆、河南、海南等地将社零增速目 标定在 6%及以上；河北、吉林定在 5%左右。贵州、甘肃、辽宁及重庆的目标设定为 4%及以 上。与 2025 年目标相比，河南、新疆目标分别上调 0.5 个百分点和 1 个百分点。与 2025 年 地方实际社零增速相比，河北、吉林、河南、广东等明显调高社零增速目标。 侯倩楠 A0230524080006 houqn@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 01 日 地方"两会"观察：二十省市，三大特征 ——2026 年地方"两会"跟踪 1 月下旬以来，地方"两会"进入密集召开期。各地 2026 年 GDP 增速设定情况如何，各地 2026 年政府工作报告定量与定性分析呈现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial value added in China is expected to achieve a medium to high-speed growth rate of around 5% by 2026, supported by various initiatives aimed at upgrading traditional industries and promoting emerging sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Industrial Growth Targets - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has prioritized stabilizing industrial growth and fostering innovation as key tasks for 2026, emphasizing the need for a modern industrial system [1]. - In 2025, the industrial value added for large-scale industries grew by 5.9%, with manufacturing maintaining a stable share of GDP, indicating a strong foundation for future growth [2]. - Various provinces, including Zhejiang and Anhui, have set specific growth targets for industrial value added, aiming for increases of around 6% to 6.5% in 2026 [3]. Group 2: Major Projects and Investments - Shanghai plans to initiate 133 industrial projects in 2026, with a total investment of 110 billion yuan, focusing on large-scale projects to support the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4]. - Hebei is set to implement a "Project Construction Year" in 2026, emphasizing the completion of key projects and the development of emerging industries [3]. - The overall manufacturing investment is projected to improve in 2026, with expected growth rates between 3% and 5% due to new technologies and market demand [5]. Group 3: Emerging Industries and Future Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes building a modern industrial system and strengthening the real economy, with a focus on developing new industries and technologies [6]. - Various regions are actively promoting new growth points in sectors such as 6G, quantum technology, and biomanufacturing, aiming to enhance their industrial capabilities [8]. - The integration of technology and industry is expected to accelerate, with significant government support for artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, and future industries [8].

凯投宏观欧元区副首席经济学家杰克·艾伦-雷诺兹说，欧元升值直接削弱欧洲制造业出口竞争力，是当 前影响欧洲经济复苏的重要因素。 在对出口依赖度较高的欧洲国家，欧元升值的影响更加明显。德国长期以出口拉动经济增长，制造业在 经济结构中占据核心地位。德国总理默茨指出，美元走弱已对德国产品出口带来显著压力，使得企业在 国际市场上的价格竞争力下降。德国批发和外贸协会主席迪尔克·扬杜拉说，中型企业对冲能力有限， 更难应对汇率波动带来的成本上升。近年来，德国经济在经历连续两年衰退后仅出现有限回升，在外部 需求承压和国际竞争加剧背景下，欧元升值进一步压缩企业盈利空间。 美元疲软也通过金融渠道对欧元区经济形成潜在压力。德国联邦金融监管局局长马克·布兰森表示，金 融市场可能质疑美元作为全球储备货币的地位，而欧洲银行依赖美元短期再融资偿还债务的机制在市场 波动下或出现"流动性瓶颈"。 欧洲央行货币政策正面临新的考验。意大利欧洲政策制定研究所分析认为，欧洲长期利率高于名义经济 增速，欧洲央行加快缩减资产负债表，而美联储缩表放缓，使美元相对宽松，从而推动资金流入欧元区 市场，加剧欧元升值。欧洲央行行长拉加德指出，由于欧元债券和股票市场规 ...