来源：市场资讯 （来源：木鱼ETF） 周五盘中大金融异动和盘后监管发力分析见《大金融"三记重拳"，券商ETF正切换至"价值牛"通道》。应该说从短期算情绪炒作空间未必多大，毕竟利好 是未来兑现，但长期来看坚定长投价值很确定。 而其最大意义在于，给市场长期慢牛走势提供了信心，指数级别难有大幅调整空间，有的是资金等着低吸。 而配置角度上，偏蓝筹的非银金融、资源、现金流、宽基系等，偏景气抱团的出海赛道都有逢低配置的逻辑。对于中期来说，出海依然是机构最请青睐的 方向，参考《出海新格局下，七类ETF打开增长的第二战场》。有这么多主题，谁有低吸机会就关注谁了，不会急着追。 只是操作上，谨慎追涨以防最后风格漂移资金归位。毕竟热点一多，就刺激电风扇了。 周五午后市场情绪暴涨，一方面有资金提前知道了盘后监管层的重磅发声，尤其是保险带动指数的作用很强。另外一方面，还有两个突发利好。 -报道称，百度AI芯片业务昆仑芯计划在香港IPO -金力永磁、中科三环、宁波韵升已获得通用出口许可证 前者带动半导体、港股科技，后者刺激稀土、有色金属。 所以我们多次强调，市场就算有时很磨人，却是资金在等着机会而已。更新更低的机会，都值得一试。 周五还 ...

财经摆渡人 精研出品 破浪前行，共探财富新局 大家好欢迎收看【古今财鉴】 11月7日，中国突然宣布暂停稀土出口管制一年。 消息一出，华盛顿那边立马毕竟就在半年前，他们还因为咱们收紧出口急得跳脚。 这稀土到底是啥宝贝，能让两个大国来回拉扯？今天咱们就掰开揉碎了聊，为啥这玩意儿成了中美经贸 的"晴雨表"。 要说稀土，得先搞明白它到底是啥。 其实就是17种金属元素的总称，别看名字带"土"，用处可大了去了。 手机屏幕、新能源汽车电机、导弹制导系统，都得靠它来"调味"，所以业内管它叫"工业味精"。 少了这东西，很多高科技产品压根造不出来。 从"烂大街"到"香饽饽"，中国稀土的逆袭密码 上世纪50年代，咱们想炼点稀土，全靠土办法。 那会儿炼出来的稀土纯度低，卖不上价，国外还卡着技术不让咱们学。 直到1955年，有个叫邹元燨的科学家，闷头搞出"火法冶炼"技术，把稀土实收率提到80%，这才算在稀 土圈有了立足之地。 但真正让中国稀土站起来的，是1974年徐光宪院士的"串级萃取技术"。 你知道吗？那会儿分离镨钕元素，国外得用几百级萃取槽，成本高得吓人。 咱们国家稀土资源本来就丰富，北方内蒙古白云鄂博矿的轻稀土，南方江西、广东的 ...

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and rare earths, indicating high market activity and potential for growth [12][33][34]. Core Insights - Copper prices increased by 4.38% to $11,665.00 per ton on LME, with domestic prices rising by 6.12% to 92,800 yuan per ton, driven by supply constraints and high demand [1][13]. - Aluminum prices rose by 1.24% to $2,900.50 per ton on LME, with domestic prices up 3.4% to 22,300 yuan per ton, reflecting stable demand despite seasonal fluctuations [2][14]. - Gold prices decreased by 0.87% to $4,227.7 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical risks and market volatility, while SPDR gold holdings increased [3][15]. - Rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxide, rose by 2.79%, with expectations of increased demand due to supply constraints and favorable export conditions [4][34]. - Antimony prices decreased by 1.79%, but the outlook remains positive due to anticipated recovery in exports [4][35]. - Tin prices increased by 4.70%, supported by low inventory levels and supply disruptions in Indonesia and Myanmar [4][36]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 4.38% to $11,665.00 per ton, with domestic prices at 92,800 yuan per ton [1][13]. - Supply constraints are evident with a decrease in copper inventory and processing fees [1][13]. - Downstream demand is weakening due to high prices, leading to a decline in new orders [1][13]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.24% to $2,900.50 per ton, with domestic prices at 22,300 yuan per ton [2][14]. - Inventory levels remain stable, but processing rates have decreased slightly [2][14]. - Demand is cautious due to high prices affecting transaction volumes [2][14]. Precious Metals - Gold prices fell by 0.87% to $4,227.7 per ounce, with geopolitical factors influencing market dynamics [3][15]. - SPDR gold holdings increased, indicating a slight uptick in investor interest [3][15]. Rare Earths - Praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices increased by 2.79%, with expectations of higher demand due to supply constraints [4][34]. - Export conditions are improving, contributing to a positive outlook for the sector [4][34]. Antimony - Antimony prices decreased by 1.79%, but the long-term outlook remains optimistic due to potential export recovery [4][35]. Tin - Tin prices increased by 4.70%, driven by low inventory levels and supply disruptions [4][36].

"这无疑是从雄心到实施的真正转变，但仍有所不足，"谢弗告诉路透社，欧盟需要加紧与可供应关键矿 物的第三国谈判。他补充说："近年来，我们与国际伙伴签署了许多谅解备忘录，但这只是起点。我们 必须变得更像交易撮合者，摆脱平淡的态度，不只是空谈一切。" 他还表示，欧洲需要确保不再继续将关键稀土资产流失给美国。 据介绍，不久前，美国稀土公司"USAR"刚刚收购了英国企业Less Common Metals（LCM），而后者是 一家为数不多有能力将稀土氧化物转化为金属和合金的欧洲公司。 谢弗警告说："我们正面临危险，即稀土价值链在很大程度上被强行拉向美国。美国可能成为第二个中 国。换句话说，美国或将成为我们依赖进口磁铁的另一个国家。" EIT RawMaterials首席执行官伯恩德·谢弗资料图 【文/观察者网 齐倩】 路透社5日报道称，这意味着欧盟终于动真格了。该计划将在未来一年，在电动车、风力涡轮机和半导 体所需的关键原材料领域投资30亿欧元（247亿元人民币），以减少对单一国家的依赖。 欧盟关键矿物机构EIT RawMaterials首席执行官伯恩德·谢弗3日接受采访时称，他对于上述计划表示欢 迎，但同时提醒说，欧 ...

美国虽然宣布可以自产稀土磁铁，但这一消息并不会真正改变它在全球稀土产业中的脆弱地位。11月7 日，美国财政部长贝森特高调展示磁铁，宣称美国已突破了稀土的瓶颈，摆脱了卡脖子的困境。但实际 上，稀土产业的主导权并不掌握在美国手中，反而是中国牢牢掌控了全球约90%的稀土精炼能力以及永 磁体生产能力。中国的控制力，不仅仅是供应链的管理，它还是对全球稀土产业生态的全面把控。 此外，中国在矿石资源方面的优势也无可忽视。中国不仅拥有世界上最丰富的轻稀土和中重稀土资源， 还特别具备镝、铽等稀有元素的资源，而这些正是美国稀土供应的致命短板。美国芒廷帕斯矿的重稀土 储量有限，且开采成本极高，而其他的矿产资源质量较低，这也解释了美国为什么要在加拿大、非洲等 地投资扩展矿产资源，并试图通过与日本、澳大利亚等国家合作来缓解这一问题。 这种局面被美国经济学家形容为产业级闭环垄断，这意味着美国不仅拥有矿产资源，甚至连如何提炼这 些矿石的技术都没有。而中国的优势，特别是其技术创新和产业规模，难以轻易复制。随着中国收紧稀 土出口管制，特别是对重稀土元素如镝和铽的出口，全球市场立刻受到冲击。数据显示，管制实施后， 全球稀土磁体的交货量急剧下降， ...

Group 1 - The Chinese government is intensifying efforts to combat illegal activities related to tobacco, focusing on the entire supply chain from production to retail to protect national interests and consumer rights [1] - A new regulatory framework for listed companies in China is being introduced, aimed at enhancing supervision and promoting high-quality development in the capital market [1] - The People's Bank of China and the Monetary Authority of Macao have renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement, increasing the swap scale from 30 billion RMB to 50 billion RMB [1] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has released a draft regulation for public consultation, marking the introduction of the first dedicated administrative regulations for listed companies [1] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has announced a reduction in risk factors for various insurance company operations, including a decrease in risk factors for certain stock holdings [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 6 billion RMB for the fourth batch of poverty alleviation projects, aiming to create job opportunities for over 1.1 million low-income individuals [1] Group 3 - The Chinese government is facilitating the export of rare earth materials by simplifying the licensing process, which is expected to accelerate delivery times and support demand recovery in the rare earth permanent magnet industry [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has taken self-regulatory measures against abnormal trading behaviors, including monitoring stocks with significant volatility and reporting suspected illegal activities [1]

在广西钟山县红花镇的贺州稀有稀土矿业有限公司生产车间内，自动化生产线有条不紊地运转，监控大 屏实时跳动着各项生产数据。这里采用离子型稀土原矿绿色高效浸萃一体化技术，稀土回收率提高10% 至20%，还从源头消除氨氮污染和放射性废渣，实现高效清洁生产。 秉持"人才是第一资源"的理念，广西稀土建立健全科技创新管理、考核激励与容错机制，赋予科研团队 更大的技术决策权和资源调配权，释放创新活力；汇聚大批高级工程师、硕博研究生，并不定期邀请院 士专家把脉问诊，人才队伍结构持续优化；在技术突破上推行"揭榜挂帅"机制，组建创新团队攻克关键 工艺，使水冶车间综合运行效率提升50%以上，技术指标跻身行业前列。 中稀广西稀土有限公司负责人李学强表示，公司将进一步健全"产业链出题、创新链答题"机制，有的放 矢开展关键核心技术攻关与生产技术提升，加速打通科技成果转化"最后一公里"，为广西稀土产业向中 高端迈进、实现高质量发展提供源源不断的新动能与新引擎。 广西稀土着力构建产学研联合研发平台体系，不断完善创新生态，先后组建多个省级研发平台及博士后 科研工作站等。今年9月，中国稀土（000831）集团研究院广西分院在南宁揭牌，标志着广西稀 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discovery of a rare earth mine in Kazakhstan with over 20 million tons of reserves has attracted significant investment from U.S. companies, but challenges remain due to China's dominance in processing and geopolitical factors [1][3][11]. Group 1: Investment and Geopolitical Context - In April, Kazakhstan confirmed a rare earth deposit, prompting U.S. companies to invest $110 million for potential collaboration [3][11]. - Kazakhstan's geographical limitations and the instability of traditional export routes due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict complicate its ability to sell rare earths to the U.S. [3][5]. - The U.S. aims to reduce reliance on China for critical minerals, with Kazakhstan's involvement seen as a strategic move in this direction [11][41]. Group 2: Processing Challenges - U.S. companies face significant hurdles in processing rare earths, as they require substantially more hydrochloric acid compared to Chinese operations, indicating a major efficiency gap [17][19]. - The U.S. currently produces only about 5% of the world's rare earths, with processing capabilities lagging behind China, which dominates the market [13][17]. - The technical barriers to refining rare earths are high, and the investment required to overcome these challenges is substantial, indicating a long-term issue rather than a short-term fix [11][21]. Group 3: Regulatory Landscape - China has implemented new regulations that require permits for products containing a minimum percentage of Chinese-origin rare earths, tightening control over the supply chain [25][27]. - The strategic maneuvering by China reflects a shift from broad management to more precise regulatory frameworks, impacting international trade dynamics [25][27]. - The U.S. is attempting to navigate these regulations while balancing its own domestic needs and international partnerships, particularly with Kazakhstan [29][33]. Group 4: Future Implications - The ongoing geopolitical struggle over rare earths is reshaping global supply chains, with significant implications for industries reliant on these materials, such as electric vehicles and high-tech manufacturing [41][45]. - Predictions indicate that continued decoupling between the U.S. and China in critical minerals could lead to increased production costs and delays in the transition to electric vehicles [45][49]. - The competition is evolving from resource acquisition to defining rules and standards, highlighting the importance of technological advancement in determining future market dynamics [49][51].

转自：新华财经 广西国盛稀土新材料有限公司经过持续的科技创新，目前已经成为广西链主型龙头企业、专精特新中小 企业、制造业单项冠军企业。"我们紧紧围绕国家战略和行业发展方向，以连续8年超过3%的研发投入 强度，累计承担国家科技支撑计划、强基工程等各类研发项目近100项，参与起草各类标准7项，先后破 解了国家高端光学、电子、激光材料等高端应用领域的原材料'卡脖子'问题，累计申请专利83项，获授 权专利46项，获得国家级制造业单项冠军、中国工业大奖提名奖、广西科技进步奖等荣誉奖励近20 项。"该公司相关负责人介绍。 近年来，广西稀土紧紧围绕稀土产业链部署创新链，统筹衔接应用基础研究、关键技术攻关、科技成果 转化、产业发展支撑等各环节工作，企业科技创新能力稳步提升，多项技术均达到世界先进水平，稀土 沉淀工艺填补了稀土行业的技术空白。据统计，截至目前，广西稀土已经拥有国家级高新技术企业、国 家知识产权优势企业各2家，国家制造业单项冠军企业、国家专精特新"小巨人"企业、国家级绿色工厂 各1家，此外还有一批省级链主型龙头企业、瞪羚企业、技术创新示范企业。2025年，广西稀土成功获 得国家批准限制技术出口证书，成为全国唯一获 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The report focuses on the evolving export control policies between China and the United States, particularly in the context of strategic competition and geopolitical tensions. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Current State of US-China Relations**: The relationship has seen a temporary easing, but the long-term strategic competition remains unchanged, with high risks of tightening export control policies [1][10][21]. 2. **Export Control Risks**: Despite a pause in the implementation of new rare earth regulations announced in October, existing measures from April remain effective, indicating a strategic tightening rather than a complete abandonment of control [1][12][23]. 3. **Three Scenarios for US-China Relations**: - **Baseline Scenario**: A one-year "ceasefire" agreement is expected to marginally benefit the economy and stock market, with a potential 10 basis point increase in actual GDP growth due to tariff reductions [1][15]. - **Pessimistic Scenario**: An early breakdown of the ceasefire could lead to increased tariffs and non-tariff barriers, resulting in a decline in the MSCI China index's forward P/E ratio below 12 times [2][17]. - **Optimistic Scenario**: A framework agreement could improve economic conditions, with the MSCI China index potentially exceeding a forward P/E ratio of 14 times [2][20]. 4. **Impact on Key Sectors**: The AI and technology sectors are expected to face short-term pressures but may benefit from China's push for technological self-sufficiency in the medium term [18][19]. 5. **Geopolitical Strategy**: China is likely to use export controls as a strategic tool in its geopolitical negotiations, particularly in critical materials like rare earths, to counter US technology restrictions [11][24][25]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Long-term Strategic Competition**: The ongoing competitive dynamics between the US and China suggest that temporary agreements may not lead to lasting resolutions, with periodic tensions expected to continue [11][22]. 2. **China's Export Control Framework**: The evolution of China's export control laws indicates a shift towards a more structured and strategic approach to managing critical materials, which could impact global supply chains [26]. 3. **Market Sentiment and Valuation**: The report suggests that improved market sentiment could stabilize valuations, with the MSCI China index maintaining a forward P/E ratio in line with emerging markets [15][20]. 4. **Technological Self-sufficiency Challenges**: China's current low self-sufficiency rates in critical technology sectors, such as EDA software, highlight vulnerabilities that could be exacerbated by US export controls [27]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current landscape and future implications for investors and stakeholders in the context of US-China relations and export controls.