Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the latest data on major global asset markets, including government bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and credit bond indices, along with their changes over different time periods [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Government Bond Yields - **10 - year Government Bonds**: On April 1, 2025, the 10 - year government bond yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.170%, 4.637%, 3.400% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.077% (Italy) to 0.023% (South Korea), with significant differences in one - year changes, such as - 0.754% for Japan and 0.643% for the UK [2]. - **2 - year Government Bonds**: The 2 - year government bond yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. on April 1, 2025, were 3.890%, 4.171%, 2.019% respectively. The latest changes varied, with - 0.080% for the US and 0.021% for Japan. One - year changes also showed large disparities, like - 0.790% for the US and 0.662% for Japan [2]. Exchange Rates - **Dollar against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: On April 1, 2025, the exchange rate of the dollar against the Brazilian real was 5.683, with a latest change of - 0.41%. Against the South African rand, it was 18.472, with a latest change of 0.82%. One - year changes also differed, e.g., 14.13% for the Brazilian real and - 1.86% for the South African rand [2]. - **Renminbi**: On April 1, 2025, the on - shore renminbi was 7.270, the off - shore renminbi was 7.281, the middle - price was 7.178, and the 12 - month NDF was 7.100. The latest changes were 0.18%, 0.21%, - 0.01%, and 0.20% respectively. One - year changes were 0.98%, 0.82%, 1.17%, and 0.06% respectively [2]. Stock Indices - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: On April 1, 2025, the Dow Jones was 5633.070, the S&P 500 was 41989.960, etc. The latest changes ranged from - 0.03% (S&P 500) to 2.82% (Taiwan stock index). One - year changes also varied, such as 7.47% for the Dow Jones and - 12.72% for the Nikkei [2]. - **Emerging Economies' Stock Indices**: On April 1, 2025, the Malaysian stock index was not available, the Australian economic index was 8126.909, and another emerging economy's stock index was 1110.660. The latest changes were 0.92% and 0.84% respectively. One - year changes were 1.02% and 5.94% respectively [2]. Credit Bond Indices - On April 1, 2025, the US investment - grade credit bond index was 3373.740, the euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index was 258.470, etc. The latest changes were between 0.10% (euro - zone high - yield credit bond index) and 0.25% (US investment - grade credit bond index). One - year changes were between 4.98% (euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index) and 12.29% (emerging economies' high - yield credit bond index) [2]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: On April 1, 2025, the A - share index closed at 3348.44, with a 0.38% increase. The PE (TTM) of the S&P 500 was 24.09, with a 0.09% month - on - month change. The risk premium of the German DAX was 2.72, with a - 0.04% month - on - month change [3]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest A - share fund flow was - 236.42, and the 5 - day average was - 410.90. The latest transaction amount of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 11322.67, with a month - on - month change of - 892.63 [3]. - **Main Contract Premium and Discount**: The basis of IF was - 28.08, with a - 0.72% premium and discount rate; the basis of IH was - 0.91, with a - 0.03% premium and discount rate; the basis of IC was - 42.25, with a - 0.72% premium and discount rate [3]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - On April 1, 2025, the closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 107.760, 105.570, 107.795, and 105.600 respectively, with small changes in the range of - 0.00% to - 0.02%. The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.9246%, 1.9802%, and 1.9070% respectively, with daily changes of - 38.00, - 32.00, and 0.00 BP respectively [4].

截至2025年3月31日 09:46，30年国债指数ETF(511130)上涨0.32%，最新价报108.6元，盘中成交额已达2.92亿元，换手率4.57%。 规模方面，30年国债指数ETF最新规模达63.77亿元，创近1年新高。 份额方面，30年国债指数ETF最新份额达5888.77万份，创近1年新高。 从资金净流入方面来看，30年国债指数ETF近3天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得1.42亿元净流入，合计"吸金"1.96亿元。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。30年国债指数ETF本月以来融资净买额达611.52万元，最新融资余额达1.86亿元。 绝对收益方面，截至2025年3月28日，30年国债指数ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为5.35%，最长连涨月数为4个月，最长连涨涨幅为10.58%，涨跌月数比 为8/3，上涨月份平均收益率为1.90%，月盈利百分比为72.73%，月盈利概率为71.93%，历史持有1年盈利概率为100.00%。 回撤方面，截至2025年3月28日，30年国债指数ETF成立以来最大回撤6.89%，相对基准回撤1.28%。 费率方面，30年国债指数ETF管理费率为0.15%，托管费率为0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments in China's bond market, analyzing the reasons behind the changes and the potential future outlook for bond investments [3][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Recent Adjustments - Tightening liquidity: The central bank net withdrew 1,077.3 billion yuan in February, continuing into March, leading to a marginal tightening of liquidity [5]. - Failed interest rate cut expectations: Overly optimistic market expectations for interest rate cuts were tempered by strong economic data in January and February, reducing the urgency for rate cuts [6]. - Stock-bond effect: A recovering stock market has led to increased risk appetite among investors, causing some funds to shift from the bond market to the stock market, exacerbating the decline in bond prices [7]. - Technical correction: The rapid decline in bond yields earlier created a need for a technical correction, resulting in the recent downturn in the bond market [8]. Group 2: Basis for Continued Bond Bull Market - Monetary policy easing expectations: Despite short-term liquidity tightening, the medium to long-term outlook remains supportive of easing monetary policy, with potential for further rate cuts [10]. - Weak economic fundamentals: Current internal demand is still recovering, and external uncertainties persist, preventing a significant rise in interest rates [11]. - Improved bond investment value: After recent adjustments, some bond products have become more attractive in terms of cost-performance ratio, especially in a volatile market [12]. Group 3: Divergent Institutional Views - Optimistic perspective: Some analysts believe the recent bond market decline is a temporary adjustment, with the long-term trend remaining bullish due to ongoing weak fundamentals and supportive monetary policy [14]. - Cautious stance: Other analysts suggest that while the bond market's trend may not reverse, the potential for further declines in interest rates is diminishing, and investors should remain cautious [15]. Group 4: Adjusting Bond Investment Return Expectations - The article emphasizes the need to lower return expectations for bond investments, as previous years' capital gains are unlikely to continue, given the current yield levels and market conditions [18].

Group 1 - The government plans to issue a new inflation-indexed bond series maturing in 2050 instead of the previously planned bond maturing in 2044 [1] - The new bond issuance will include planned market making activities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant short-term adjustments, with rising government bond yields and a tightening liquidity environment impacting fund performance [1][3][9]. Group 1: Market Adjustments - As of February 26, the 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.71% and the 30-year yield to 1.91%, indicating a notable increase since February 5 [1]. - The pure bond funds have seen a maximum decline of over 2% in the past week, with more than 80 medium to long-term pure bond funds dropping over 1% in net value [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing the Bond Market - Tight liquidity is a direct factor for the current bond market adjustment, with the central bank's fund injection falling short of market demand, leading to concerns about future liquidity [3]. - The DR007 rate is at 2.33%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield, resulting in an inversion that has contributed to the market's downturn [3]. - The "spring market" has increased risk appetite, diverting funds from the bond market due to structural trends in the equity market driven by technology sector growth [4]. Group 3: Wealth Management and Redemption Risks - The overall performance of the wealth management market remains stable, with only 3.48% of products in the market being below par, indicating limited redemption risks [6]. - The rapid recovery of wealth management scale post-Spring Festival suggests that redemption pressures are manageable, supported by previous market experiences [6][7]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Industry experts believe the current bond market adjustment is short-term, with a positive long-term outlook remaining intact due to ongoing monetary policy support and economic recovery [9][10]. - The expected stabilization range for the 10-year government bond yield is between 1.65% and 1.75%, with core fluctuations projected between 1.5% and 1.9% throughout the year [9].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced significant volatility on the 25th, characterized by a "roller coaster" trading pattern, indicating a divergence in future expectations among market participants [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the 25th, all maturities of government bond futures opened significantly higher, peaked, then fell to a new low before recovering to near the opening price by midday [2][4]. - The trading volume of major contracts surged, with the 30-year contract rising by 0.69% to a volume of 99,500 contracts, the 10-year contract up by 0.25% to 156,000 contracts, and the 5-year contract increasing by 0.16% to 125,000 contracts [4]. - The 10-year government bond yield reached a new high of 1.779% during the day but later retraced all gains, reflecting market instability [4]. Group 2: Market Expectations - The significant increase in trading volume indicates a stark division in expectations regarding future interest rates and macroeconomic conditions, with both bullish and bearish positions being taken [4][6]. - The DR007 (7-day repo rate) rose to 2.21%, while the 10-year government bond yield hovered around 1.76%, indicating a notable inversion that complicates leveraged strategies for bond bulls [6]. - A report from CITIC Securities suggests that if the 10-year yield exceeds the resistance level of 1.65%, it could trigger increased selling pressure as many funds may enter a loss position [6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Analysis - Nearly 40% of fixed-income sell-side analysts have shifted their outlook to bearish, citing that current economic conditions do not support further monetary easing by the central bank [7]. - Analysts believe that the prolonged tightness in funding conditions may lead to a reassessment of the bond market's attractiveness, especially as stock markets show potential for higher returns [9][10]. - Despite the current tightening, some analysts maintain that long-term monetary easing remains a likely scenario, suggesting that the pressure on the bond market may be limited in the near term [10].

——笔记哥《交易》 我们总是明明做错了，亏钱了，但总找借口拖延止损，每天都去收集好消息以支持自己这么做，让自己每天都在充满希望、懊悔、愤怒中度过，甚至当收 益率上行到一定位置时，还认为已经上这么高了，差不多了，然后再加仓买入，美其名曰"摊薄成本"，实则错上加错。 股市多头：你们不是天天说资产荒吗？怎么资产突然不荒了？ 债市多头：资产荒不荒我不知道，我是真TM慌了。 【笔记20250224— 资产荒不荒？慌！（-？-资金紧张午后转松-基金赎回增加=中上)】 资金面先紧后松，长债收益率明显上行。 央行公开市场开展2925亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1905亿元逆回购到期。净投放1020亿元。 资金面先紧后松，资金价格仍偏贵，DR001在1.88%附近、DR007在 2.06%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 02. 24) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (b ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the resumption of land reserve special bonds is expected to improve the cash flow statements of local state-owned enterprises and urban investment companies [2][4][6] - The issuance of local government bonds is projected to significantly increase in the coming week, with a total issuance scale of 1.39 trillion yuan [4][9] - Special refinancing bonds are being issued at a faster pace compared to new local bonds, with a total issuance scale of 711.5 billion yuan, accounting for 51% of local bond issuance [4][9] Group 1: Land Reserve Special Bonds - As of February 16, the disclosed scale of land reserve special bonds in Guangdong Province is 39.7 billion yuan, with urban investment and state-owned enterprises accounting for 93.9% of the total [4][6] - The acquisition of idle land primarily focuses on land from 2021 to 2023, with respective proportions of 25.0%, 28.5%, and 20.6% for the years 2021, 2022, and 2023, totaling 74.1% [4][6] Group 2: Local Government Bond Issuance - Currently, 859.1 billion yuan of local government bonds have been issued, with an expected issuance of 527.5 billion yuan in the upcoming week [4][9] - The new local bonds (including new general bonds and new special bonds) have a total scale of 581.5 billion yuan, with Guangdong, Hebei, Hubei, Beijing, and Sichuan leading in issuance amounts [4][9][12] Group 3: Credit Market Overview - In the past week, the overall valuation of non-financial credit bonds and perpetual bonds has increased, with specific yield changes for various ratings of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds [15][18] - The net financing in the primary market for non-financial credit bonds turned negative, with a total issuance of 199 billion yuan [18][19]

2024年 债券市场大记事 笔记哥坚持十余年撰写债券投资笔记，整理了《2012年-2024年 债市大记事》。 如需获取 电子版 ，请转发本文至朋友圈，并添加"笔记助 手" 微信获 取： bijige6 ...

当我们的交易信号与内心的预期相冲突时，就很难去坚定地执行交易系统。你的预判，或许是由自己的分析体系得出的，也或许是人性弱点推动的，但只 要是内心与出入场信号不一致，在下单执行交易时就会变的犹豫纠结。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20241231— 2024债市投资666，2025债市生涯999（+制造业PMI低于预期+股市大跌+央行买断式逆回购14000亿+央行净买入国债3000亿+跨年资金 平稳=中下)】 资金面收敛转松，长债收益率明显下行。 央行公开市场开展1577亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有641亿元逆回购到期。净投放936亿元。 资金面收敛，跨年资金偏贵，DR007上行至1.98%，尾盘转松，平稳跨年。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2024. 12. 31 ) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | ...