Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for May is at 49.5%, a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points, still in the contraction zone[4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points, indicating a return to the expansion zone[4] - The new orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand[4] Group 2: Sector Performance - The new export orders index rose to 47.5%, up 2.8 percentage points, but remains below the levels seen in March (49.0%) and April[4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months[4] - Large enterprises' PMI increased to 50.7%, up 1.5 percentage points, while medium enterprises' PMI fell to 47.5%, down 1.3 percentage points[5] Group 3: Price and Inventory Trends - The raw materials price index is at 46.9%, down 0.1 percentage points, indicating ongoing price pressure[4] - The finished goods price index is at 44.7%, also down 0.1 percentage points, suggesting weak downstream demand[4] - The raw materials inventory index is at 47.4%, up 0.4 percentage points, while the finished goods inventory index is at 46.5%, down 0.8 percentage points[5] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The production activity expectation index for manufacturing is at 52.5%, up 0.4 percentage points, indicating improved business sentiment[6] - The overall economic environment shows a structural characteristic where supply exceeds demand, necessitating policy support to alleviate price pressures[4]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In May, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing activity [1] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 50.7%, up 1.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw a PMI of 47.5%, down 1.3 percentage points, and small enterprises had a PMI of 49.3%, up 0.6 percentage points [1] - The production index was at 50.7%, rising 0.9 percentage points, indicating an acceleration in production activities [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Sub-Indices - The new orders index was 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, suggesting a recovery in market demand [2] - The raw materials inventory index was 47.4%, up 0.4 percentage points, indicating a narrowing decline in inventory levels [2] - The employment index was 48.1%, up 0.2 percentage points, reflecting an improvement in employment conditions within the manufacturing sector [2] - The supplier delivery time index was at 50.0%, down 0.2 percentage points, indicating stable delivery times compared to the previous month [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - In May, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [5] - The construction industry business activity index was 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, while the service industry index was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points [8] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sub-Indices - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 46.1%, up 1.2 percentage points, indicating a rebound in market demand [10] - The input prices index was 48.2%, up 0.4 percentage points, suggesting that input prices remained below the previous month's level [10] - The sales prices index was 47.3%, up 0.7 percentage points, indicating a narrowing decline in sales prices [10] - The employment index for non-manufacturing was 45.5%, stable compared to the previous month, indicating stable employment conditions [10] Group 5: Composite PMI Overview - The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.4% in May, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating that production and business activities continued to expand overall [15]

Core Viewpoints - The manufacturing PMI for May increased marginally to 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [2][10][52] - The new export index remains low, while domestic demand, particularly in consumer goods and equipment manufacturing, shows significant improvement [2][21] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI shows overall improvement, with production and new order indices rising by 0.9 and 0.6 percentage points to 50.7% and 49.8%, respectively [2][52] - The production index has recovered above the expansion threshold, while the new order index remains in contraction territory, indicating faster production but weaker demand [2][10] - Industries with high domestic demand, such as equipment manufacturing and consumer goods, have seen PMIs rise by 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points to 51.2% and 50.2% [2][21] - Conversely, export-dependent sectors like textiles and chemicals have underperformed, with production and new order indices below the critical point [2][21] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased slightly to 50.3%, with the construction sector experiencing a notable decline due to weak real estate performance [2][67] - The construction PMI fell by 0.9 percentage points to 51%, while civil engineering activities are accelerating, as indicated by a PMI of 62.3% [29][67] - Service sector PMI saw a marginal increase to 50.2%, driven by improved activity in tourism and dining during the holiday period [40][67] Future Outlook - Uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies remain significant, necessitating close monitoring of fiscal policies' impact on domestic demand [45] - The recent court ruling against Trump's tariffs has created a temporary freeze on tariff enforcement, adding to the external uncertainties [45] - Service consumption and infrastructure investment are expected to be key areas for fiscal support, potentially enhancing domestic demand [45]

5月31日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。数据显示，5 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.5%，环比上升0.5个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数为 50.3%，环比下降0.1个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.4%，环比上升0.2个百分点，我国经济总体产出 保持扩张。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群向《证券日报》记者表示，5月份PMI指数出现回升，表明加 紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策综合成效已开始显现。同时，生产指数、采购量指数、新订单指数均出 现回升，表明在多项政策综合效应下，企业预期改善，生产经营活动有回暖迹象。 企业预期有所回升 5月份PMI环比上升，显示出经济运行有所回稳。分项指数变化显示，需求整体趋稳运行，企业生产止 降回升，新动能持续向好发展，大型企业回升向好，小型企业有所改善，企业预期有所回升。 具体来看，生产指数为50.7%，环比上升0.9个百分点，升至临界点以上，制造业生产活动有所加快；新 订单指数为49.8%，环比上升0.6个百分点。 值得关注的是，进出口指数均有回升。新出口订单指数和进口指数分别为47.5%和47.1%，分别环比上 升2. ...

Core Viewpoint - The May PMI data indicates a series of characteristics reflecting a weak but stabilizing economy, with improvements driven by eased tariffs and a package of financial policies [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The three "soft indicators" (EPMI, BCI, PMI) show consistent upward trends, suggesting a recovery in May after a downturn in April due to tariff disruptions [1][4]. - The EPMI increased by 1.6 points to 51.0, which is still the third lowest reading for the same period historically [6][7]. - The BCI rose slightly by 0.2 points to 50.3, remaining below last year's level, indicating mixed microeconomic conditions [6][7]. - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.5 points to 49.5, still below the neutral level of 50, while the non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 50.3 [7][8]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The midstream equipment manufacturing sector leads in absolute economic performance, followed by downstream consumer goods, while upstream raw materials lag behind [8][9]. - The May equipment manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2, and the consumer goods manufacturing PMI increased to 50.2, indicating positive trends in these sectors [9][10]. Group 3: Export and Demand - New export orders rose significantly by 2.8 points, reflecting a recovery in exports following the joint statement from the US and Japan [15][16]. - The production index increased to 50.7, and the purchasing volume index rose to 47.6, indicating a rebound in production and procurement activities [17]. Group 4: Price Trends and Expectations - Price indicators have not fully stabilized, but the downward pressure has eased, with the purchasing price index slightly declining to 46.9 [17][18]. - Microeconomic expectations have improved, with the production activity expectation index rising to 52.5, although still below March levels [19][20]. - The finished goods inventory index decreased to 46.5, indicating a cautious approach to inventory management by companies [22]. Group 5: Construction Sector - The construction sector remains weak, with the building PMI at 51.0, down from 51.9, indicating that real estate construction is a major drag on overall economic performance [23][24].

Core Viewpoints - The manufacturing PMI for May increased marginally to 49.5%, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity, although it remains below the expansion threshold of 50 [2][10] - The new export index is low, but domestic demand, particularly in consumer goods and equipment manufacturing, shows significant improvement [2][21] - The service sector PMI also saw a slight increase, driven by improvements in life services, particularly during the "May Day" holiday [40][67] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, with production and new orders indices increasing by 0.9 and 0.6 percentage points to 50.7% and 49.8%, respectively [2][52] - The production index has recovered above the expansion line, while the new orders index remains in contraction territory, indicating a disparity between production acceleration and weak demand [2][10] - Industries with strong domestic demand, such as equipment manufacturing and consumer goods, showed better performance, with PMIs rising by 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points to 51.2% and 50.2% [21][24] New Orders and Exports - The internal demand orders index rose above the expansion line to 50.1%, while the new export orders index increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5%, indicating a divergence in recovery between domestic and export orders [3][24] - The average value of new export orders over April and May remains lower than in March, suggesting ongoing pressure on exports [3][24] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased slightly to 50.3%, primarily due to a decline in the construction sector, which fell by 0.9 percentage points to 51% [67][29] - Despite the decline in construction, civil engineering activities are accelerating, with the civil engineering PMI rising to 62.3% [29][84] - The service sector PMI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.2%, supported by active consumer spending during the holiday period [40][67] Future Outlook - Uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies remain significant, with ongoing monitoring of fiscal policies' support for domestic demand [45][45] - The focus will be on the potential for fiscal measures to bolster service consumption and infrastructure investment, which are expected to enhance domestic demand support [45][45]

Group 1 - Under the leadership of President Nayib Bukele, El Salvador is entering a new era of economic growth, focusing on development and prosperity [1] - The Salvadoran embassy in China is actively working to strengthen and expand bilateral relations with China, a leading global economy [1] - A key topic in the Salvadoran-Chinese bilateral relationship is the ongoing free trade agreement, which aims to create new cooperation opportunities for both countries [1] Group 2 - El Salvador has already begun exporting products like sugar and coffee to China, with significant potential in processed agricultural products and beverages [1] - The successful entry of Salvadoran juice brand "Petit" into the Chinese market through e-commerce platforms demonstrates the positive reception of Salvadoran products in China [1] - The improvement in domestic security under Bukele's governance has enhanced social efficiency and production effectiveness, contributing to economic growth [1] Group 3 - International credit rating agencies, such as S&P, have upgraded El Salvador's sovereign credit rating to B-, reflecting growing confidence in the country's economy [2] - This international recognition has invigorated key sectors including plastics, textiles, energy, tourism, construction, pharmaceuticals, and agricultural processing [2] - Collaborative projects with China, such as the "Sunset" amusement park and new infrastructure developments, are examples of how bilateral cooperation is driving economic growth [2]

宏观月报 / 2025.05.31 ——5 月 PMI 数据解读 证券研究报告 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 分析师 马骏 SAC 证书编号：S0160523080004 majun@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《PMI 节前还比较弱——1 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-01-31 2. 《PMI 节后表现如何？——2 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-03-01 3. 《出口带动需求回暖——3 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-03-31 4. 《生产高位扩张，价格持续上行—— 4 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-04-31 5. 《成本压力上升——5 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-05-31 6. 《PMI 还是弱了些——6 月 PMI 数据 解读》 2024-06-30 7. 《出口订单创同期新高——7 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-07-31 8. 《外需仍有回升——8 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-08-31 9. 《PMI 再现背离，经济景气如何？— —9 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-09 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In May, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - The production index for manufacturing activities returned to the expansion zone at 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, reflecting a recovery in production activities [1] - New orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, while the business activity expectation index rose to 52.5%, indicating stable confidence among manufacturers regarding market development [1] Group 2: High-Tech and Equipment Manufacturing - The high-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 50.9%, maintaining expansion for four consecutive months, while the equipment manufacturing and consumer goods PMIs were 51.2% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing month-on-month increases [2] - New orders indices for both high-tech and equipment manufacturing remained above 52%, indicating strong market demand [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, slightly down 0.1 percentage points but still above the critical point, indicating stable growth in the service sector [3] - The service sector business activity index rose to 50.2%, driven by increased consumer activity during the "May Day" holiday, with a business activity expectation index of 56.5%, reflecting optimism among service providers [3] - The construction industry continued to expand, with the civil engineering business activity index at 62.3%, up 1.4 percentage points, indicating accelerated project construction [3] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The rise in manufacturing PMI in May suggests that proactive macroeconomic policies are beginning to show results, although the price index remains slightly down, indicating an oversupply situation [4] - Experts emphasize the need for continued government investment in public goods to support production and employment recovery, while also advocating for measures to boost domestic demand and enhance external trade [4] - The manufacturing sector's recovery is still under observation due to external uncertainties and the fact that many sub-indices remain below 50%, indicating potential risks [4]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI in May rose to 49.5%, remaining below the expansion threshold but showing a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month[4] - The production index increased to 50.7%, indicating a return to expansion after a period of contraction[7] - New export orders index rose by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5%, reflecting a slight improvement in external demand[7] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply and demand improvements are likely to be short-lived due to uncertainties in tariff policies, leading to a potential decline in production after the current export surge[2] - Companies are actively reducing inventory, as indicated by the finished goods inventory index dropping to 46.5%[7] - The purchasing price index for raw materials fell to 46.9%, while the factory price index decreased to 44.7%, indicating increasing downward pressure on prices[7] Group 3: Sector Performance - The construction PMI fell to 51%, primarily due to reduced intensity in residential construction, while infrastructure construction remains strong[7] - The service sector PMI increased to 50.2%, driven by holiday-related activities, but still lags behind historical averages since 2013[7] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To prevent a downward spiral in quantity and price, early policy intervention is necessary to support domestic demand and clarify anti-competitive regulations[2] - There is a need for measures to stimulate demand to avoid a rapid decline in production once the current export surge subsides[2]