Core Insights - The 2025 China Economic Media Conference emphasizes the importance of economic media in connecting economic sectors with the public, highlighting its role in policy interpretation and market information dissemination [1][2] - The conference aims to foster discussions on industry innovation, content quality improvement, and cross-sector integration to enhance the economic media landscape [1] Group 1: Economic Media's Role - Economic media is seen as a crucial bridge for interpreting policy directions and conveying market information, especially in the context of high-quality economic development by 2025 [1] - The need for economic media to maintain professionalism and credibility while innovating communication methods is stressed [1] Group 2: Key Themes and Directions - Two core directions for economic media are proposed: enhancing economic publicity and public opinion guidance, and improving the quality of all-media communication [2] - The focus on service industry development is highlighted as a key area for future economic growth, with an emphasis on understanding trends and dynamics within this sector [2] Group 3: Conference Outcomes - The conference will announce the results of the "Comprehensive Deepening Reform Theme Promotion Excellent Case" collection and introduce the "2025 Economic Reporting Integration Innovation Team (Studio) Top 20" [3] - A short video produced by China Economic Net titled "Unprecedented Strength! Central Heavyweight Positioning! Chinese Assets Soar Collectively" is recognized as an excellent case in the theme of comprehensive deepening reform [3]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Overview - The manufacturing PMI for November is reported at 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from October, but it has remained below the critical line for eight consecutive months [1] - The production index and new orders index for November are 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, indicating improvements in both production and demand [4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.1%, remaining above the critical point for ten months, suggesting continued growth in this sector [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The production expectations index for November is 53.1%, reflecting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [5] - The new export orders index has risen to 47.6%, up 1.7 percentage points from October, indicating a stabilization in manufacturing exports [5] - The overall manufacturing market demand is showing signs of recovery, with the new orders index increasing by 0.4 percentage points from October [5] Group 3: Price Trends and Inventory Levels - The purchasing price index for raw materials is at 53.6%, up 1.1 percentage points from October, indicating rising input costs [7] - The finished goods inventory index is at 47.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from October, suggesting smoother sales activities for enterprises [6] Group 4: Service Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index is reported at 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from October, indicating a slowdown in service sector activities [9] - The financial services sector shows strong performance, with business activity and new orders indices both exceeding 55%, indicating robust growth [13] - The construction industry business activity index has improved to 49.6%, up 0.5 percentage points from October, signaling a recovery in construction activities [14]

Core Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is reported at 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a stable economic outlook in China [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from last month, while the comprehensive PMI output index fell to 49.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points [1] - The production index and new orders index are at 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, with increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points, suggesting improvements in both production and demand [1] Manufacturing Sector - The production index returned to the expansion threshold at 50%, reflecting a recovery in manufacturing activity after a brief contraction [2] - Key industries such as agricultural and sideline food processing, as well as non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, show production and new orders indices in the expansion zone, indicating active supply and demand [1] - The production and business activity expectation index rose to 53.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, signaling improved market confidence [1] Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the slight recovery in the PMI indicates improved market confidence, influenced by the implementation of the Fourth Plenary Session's spirit and the encouraging goals of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - There is a call for enhanced macroeconomic policy adjustments to counteract cyclical downturns, with recommendations for increased government investment in public products and services to stimulate demand [2] - Predictions for December indicate a potential stabilization and recovery in manufacturing demand, driven by year-end activities and policy implementations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is 49.2%, indicating a slight improvement in economic conditions, while the non-manufacturing business activity index shows a decline, reflecting a slowdown in the service sector [1][3][8]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, signaling improved market confidence [1][3]. - Key indices such as production, new orders, and procurement volume have risen, with production index at 50.0% and new orders at 49.2%, indicating recovery in both production and demand [4][3]. - The production activity expectation index rose to 53.1%, suggesting enhanced confidence among manufacturers regarding market developments [4]. Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points, primarily due to a seasonal decline in consumer-related services following a high base from the previous month [8][9]. - Despite the overall slowdown, financial activities and information services showed robust growth, contributing positively to the economic environment [9][10]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - Investment is expected to continue supporting economic stability, with the construction business activity index rising to 49.6%, marking the second increase in the second half of the year [12][14]. - The business activity expectation index for the construction sector increased to 57.9%, indicating renewed confidence among construction firms [14]. - Analysts predict that with the acceleration of key projects and supportive policies, investment will play a crucial role in stabilizing growth towards the end of the year [14][11].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizes the importance of implementing the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, focusing on risk prevention, strong regulation, and promoting high-quality development in the capital market [1][2]. Group 1: Enhancing Market Resilience and Risk Management - The CSRC aims to strengthen the resilience and risk management capabilities of the capital market by cultivating high-quality listed companies and improving the long-term investment ecosystem [1]. - There is a focus on establishing a stable market mechanism to solidify the internal foundation for market stability [1]. Group 2: Improving Market Inclusiveness and Adaptability - The CSRC plans to deepen reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market, enhancing the nurturing functions of multi-tiered equity markets such as the New Third Board, private equity, and venture capital [2]. - Strengthening the functions of the bond and futures markets is also a priority [2]. Group 3: Enhancing Regulatory Effectiveness - The CSRC will intensify efforts to combat various securities and futures violations, accelerating the advancement of digital and intelligent regulation [1]. - There is a commitment to improving legal frameworks and enhancing the protection of investor rights [1]. Group 4: Promoting Market Openness - The CSRC aims to advance the opening of the capital market to a deeper and higher level, balancing openness with security [2]. - Efforts will be made to support Hong Kong in consolidating its status as an international financial center and to enhance international regulatory cooperation [2]. Group 5: Strengthening Internal Governance - The CSRC emphasizes the importance of party discipline and the construction of a competent regulatory team, focusing on accountability and continuous improvement in governance [2]. - There is a commitment to rigorous oversight and the promotion of a culture of integrity within the organization [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is mainly affected by capital market sentiment. Although the stock - bond seesaw effect still exists, its impact has been greatly reduced compared to the third quarter. Currently, there are few tradable hotspots in the bond market itself. It is recommended to adopt a bullish trading strategy, buying on dips and not chasing highs. Additionally, pay attention to whether there are relevant news about Sino - US trade negotiations over the weekend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions on October 24, 2025 - **Futures Market**: All varieties of Treasury bond futures closed down in a volatile manner. The short - end yields of spot bonds slightly decreased, while the long - end yields increased. The funds were loose, with DR001 at around 1.32%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 16.8 billion yuan, with a net injection of 320 million yuan [1]. - **Intraday News**: - The main goals of economic and social development during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period include significant achievements in high - quality development, a substantial improvement in technological self - reliance and self - strength, new breakthroughs in comprehensive deepening of reforms, an obvious improvement in social civilization, continuous improvement in people's living standards, new major progress in building a beautiful China, and a more solid national security barrier [2]. - Zheng Shanjie of the National Development and Reform Commission stated that China will recreate a high - tech industry in the next 10 years, develop emerging pillar industries, accelerate the development of strategic emerging industry clusters such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low - altitude economy, and promote new economic growth points such as quantum technology, biological manufacturing, hydrogen and nuclear fusion energy, brain - computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth - generation mobile communications [2]. 3.2 Impact on the Bond Market - Affected by the "14th Five - Year Plan" development goals, the A - share market opened higher and moved higher today. The technology sector led the market to break through again, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high. As a result, the bond market closed down in a volatile manner [3]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Data | Contract | October 24, 2025 | October 23, 2025 | Change Today | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.334 | 102.342 | - 0.008 | | TF2512 | 105.615 | 105.665 | - 0.05 | | T2512 | 108.015 | 108.07 | - 0.055 | | TL2512 | 115.03 | 115.3 | - 0.27 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0118 | - 0.0297 | 0.0179 | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0337 | - 0.0405 | 0.0068 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0436 | - 0.0074 | 0.051 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.136 | 0.319 | - 0.183 | | TS Contract Position (lots) | 76425 | 76588 | - 163 | | TF Contract Position (lots) | 151744 | 152409 | - 665 | | T Contract Position (lots) | 261298 | 262198 | - 900 | | TL Contract Position (lots) | 176081 | 175682 | 399 | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 26194 | 32327 | - 6133 | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 46576 | 59535 | - 12959 | | T Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 67873 | 76898 | - 9025 | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 127270 | 136162 | - 8892 | [4]