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黑色系周度报告-20251121
Xin Ji Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 11:52
1. Report Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Long - term**: Construction site funds availability has slightly increased but remains significantly lower year - on - year. Real estate data recovery is slow. Steel mills' profitability is on the decline, and the steel fundamentals are weak, with a tendency for weak oscillations. Iron ore is under pressure due to expected supply loosening and a decline in daily hot - metal production. For glass and soda ash, glass inventory is accumulating, production is decreasing, and demand is weak. The supply of soda ash is loose, and the weak supply - demand situation is hard to change [68][72]. - **Short - term**: In the macro - policy vacuum period, the sentiment in the market is weak. The steel futures market will be in a weak oscillation, and iron ore will operate at a low level. The glass futures price is on a downward trend, dragging down the soda ash futures price, and both will be under pressure in the short term [69][73]. 3. Summary by Directory Black - series Weekly Market Review - **Futures Prices**: From November 14th to 21st, 2025, among the main futures contracts, the prices of螺纹钢,热卷, and铁矿石 increased, while those of 焦炭,焦煤, glass, and 纯碱 decreased. The price of 螺纹钢 rose from 3053 to 3057,热卷 from 3256 to 3270, and 铁矿石 from 773 to 786; 焦炭 dropped from 1670 to 1615,焦煤 from 1192 to 1103, glass from 1032 to 987, and 纯碱 from 1226 to 1170 [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of 螺纹钢, 热卷, 铁矿石, 焦炭, 焦煤, 玻璃, and 纯碱 were 3220, 3270, 807, 1770, 1530, 1120, and 1261 respectively. The corresponding basis (unadjusted) was 163, 0, 22, 156, 427, 133, and 91 [3]. Rebar - **Profit**: On November 20th, the blast - furnace profit of rebar was - 31 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply**: As of November 21st, the blast - furnace operating rate was 82.19%, a decrease of 0.62 percentage points. The daily average hot - metal output was 236.28 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons, while the weekly rebar production was 207.96 tons, an increase of 7.96 tons [13]. - **Demand**: In the week of November 21st, the apparent consumption of rebar was 230.79 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.42 tons. As of November 20th, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 84,520 tons [18]. - **Inventory**: In the week of November 21st, the social inventory of rebar was 400.02 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15.73 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 153.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.1 tons [23]. Iron Ore - **Supply**: In the week of November 14th, the global iron ore shipment volume was 35.164 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.474 million tons, and the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.699 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.994 million tons [28]. - **Inventory**: In the week of November 21st, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 157.3485 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7799 million tons, and the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 90.0123 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7478 million tons [33]. - **Demand**: In the week of November 21st, the daily average port - clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 3.4339 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0311 million tons. As of November 20th, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 0.918 million tons [38]. Float Glass - **Supply**: In the week of November 21st, the number of operating float - glass production lines was 222, the same as the previous week. The weekly output was 1.110195 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3750 tons. As of November 20th, the capacity utilization rate was 79.03%, and the operating rate was 74.66% [43]. - **Inventory**: In the week of November 21st, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 63.303 million weight - boxes, a week - on - week increase of 56,000 tons, and the available inventory days were 27.5, the same as the previous week [48]. - **Demand**: In the week of November 17th, the deep - processing order days of glass downstream manufacturers were 9.9 days [52]. Soda Ash - **Supply**: In the week of November 21st, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 82.68%, a decrease of 2.12 percentage points compared with the previous week, and the output was 720,900 tons, a decrease of 18,300 tons compared with the previous week [56]. - **Inventory**: As of November 21st, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.6444 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 62,900 tons [61]. - **Sales Rate**: As of November 21st, the sales rate of soda ash was 108.73%, a week - on - week increase of 7.8 percentage points [65].
玻璃期货跌破千元大关,弱势何时方休?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-21 10:24
Core Viewpoint - The glass futures market has experienced a significant downturn, with the main contract price falling below the critical threshold of 1000 yuan/ton for the first time in over four months, raising concerns about the market's bottom and future trends [1] Market Performance - The glass futures market has shown weak performance, with the main contract price dropping over 2% in early trading on November 21 [1] - After the National Day holiday, production companies initiated price cuts to alleviate inventory pressure, leading to a decline in the average transaction price of large glass sheets in the Shahe region from approximately 1237 yuan/ton in early October to around 1117 yuan/ton by the end of October [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite some manufacturers starting cold repairs to adjust supply, the impact has been minimal, and the speed of supply adjustment is lagging behind the decline in demand [4] - Glass companies and midstream traders have significantly higher inventory levels compared to the same period last year, contributing to a persistent supply-demand imbalance [4] - The real estate sector's downturn has directly affected glass demand, with downstream processing companies facing insufficient orders, as indicated by a drop in order days to 9.9 days, a record low [8] Future Outlook - In the short term, the glass market lacks clear driving forces, and a weak trend is likely to continue; however, prices are at a low point, and expectations for further cold repairs may stimulate some mid-to-downstream demand [11] - The recovery of the glass industry in the medium to long term will depend on the extent of supply-side capacity adjustments and the recovery of demand from the real estate market [11] - Market participants should closely monitor changes in supply-side production cuts and real estate policy developments, as well as potential technical rebound risks [11]
浮法玻璃周报:分析师范阿骄-20251121
Hong Ye Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 07:43
浮法玻璃周报 2025.11.21 分析师范阿骄 从业资格证F3054801 投资咨询证号Z0016954 浮法玻璃行情分析 ➢ 现货概况:本周浮法玻璃现货价格持续阴跌,区域分化明显。截至2025年11月20日,全国5mm浮法玻璃均价为1,106元/吨,周内下跌45元/吨,跌幅约3.9%。 沙河、湖北等主要产区价格走弱,产销率偏低,部分企业为去库采取"以价换量"策略。期货价格维持下跌趋势,主力合约逼近历史低位,市场情绪偏弱。供需基 本面承压,库存高位运行,行业利润持续收窄。本周玻璃期货总成交量显著放大,11月20日单日成交量达192.29万手,为近期峰值,显示市场交投活跃但方向 分歧加剧。持仓量维持高位,截至11月21日为194.37万手,反映空头力量持续积累。 ➢ 供给端:周内本溪一600吨/日产线冷修,国内在产日产量降至15.81万吨。此为本周唯一明确的产能退出,但整体供给仍处高位,未形成系统性减产。全国 周度产量111.02万吨,环比-0.34%,同比+0.08%。 ➢ 需求端:需求偏弱难改,截至20251117,全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值9.9天,环比-8.9%,同比-24.2%。进入11月,各大 ...
菲利华11月20日获融资买入1.56亿元,融资余额14.06亿元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-21 01:28
Core Viewpoint - The recent trading activity and financial performance of Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass Co., Ltd. indicate a strong market presence and growth potential, with significant increases in shareholder numbers and profitability metrics [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Activity - On November 20, Feilihua's stock rose by 3.20%, with a trading volume of 1.485 billion yuan [1]. - The margin trading data shows a financing buy of 156 million yuan and a repayment of 188 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 32.82 million yuan [1]. - As of November 20, the total margin trading balance for Feilihua was 1.418 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 1.406 billion yuan, accounting for 3.58% of the circulating market value, indicating a high level compared to the past year [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Feilihua reported a revenue of 1.382 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.17% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 334 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 42.23% [2]. - Cumulatively, Feilihua has distributed 677 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 275 million yuan distributed over the past three years [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Feilihua reached 31,400, an increase of 115.79% compared to the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 53.66% to 16,346 shares [2]. - Notable institutional holdings include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited as the fourth-largest shareholder with 10.746 million shares, and new entrants like Southern CSI 500 ETF and Southern Military Reform Flexible Allocation Mixed A [2].
玻璃纯碱早报-20251121
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 01:16
游期现01-60到70,成交弱 玻璃产销:沙河76,湖北105,华东105,华南100 | | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025/11/13 2025/11/19 2025/11/20 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | 2025/11/13 2025/11/19 2025/11/20 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河重碱 | 1190.0 | 1130.0 | 1130.0 | -60.0 | 0.0 | SA05合 约 | 1305.0 | 1257.0 | 1232.0 | -73.0 | -25.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1210.0 | 1150.0 | 1140.0 | -70.0 | -10.0 | SA01合约 | 1239.0 | 1182.0 | 1158.0 | -81.0 | -24.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 ...
让代表“金点子”成为助推发展“金钥匙”(连线)
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-11-21 00:28
Group 1 - The article highlights the successful transformation of representative suggestions into actionable policies that support economic development in Hunan Province, particularly in the electronic glass industry [1] - Hunan Province's legislative bodies have established a comprehensive supervision system to ensure that every suggestion from representatives is effectively managed and followed up [2] - A total of 423 suggestions have been efficiently processed, integrating them with the province's 14th Five-Year Plan, legislative work, and supervision efforts [3] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of continuous communication and feedback mechanisms between representatives and the legislative bodies to ensure that suggestions lead to real solutions [2] - Specific examples include the development of a special plan for low-altitude economy and the improvement of compliance rates for ride-hailing services, which have significantly increased driver incomes [3] - The legislative bodies aim to act as facilitators and quality inspectors, ensuring that valuable suggestions are not overlooked and contribute to the province's growth [3]
持仓量创历史新高 玻璃趋势仍难反转
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-11-21 00:22
Core Viewpoint - The glass market experienced a rebound in September due to expectations of a peak season, but prices have since dropped significantly, with a decline of over 20% by November 20, indicating a challenging outlook for price recovery despite increased trading volume [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The 2601 contract for glass futures reached a recent high of 1282 CNY/ton on September 25, but fell to a low of 989 CNY/ton by November 20, reflecting a decline of more than 20% [1]. - Total trading volume surged from 1.655 million contracts on September 25 to a peak of 2.568 million contracts by November 14, marking an increase of 55.2% and setting a historical high [1][4]. - Despite the influx of capital, the potential for a price rebound is limited, and further declines may occur based on the current market structure and fundamentals [1][4]. Group 2: Holding Structure and Market Sentiment - As of November 18, the top 20 positions in glass futures held 1.3345 million long contracts and 1.6740 million short contracts, resulting in a net short position of 339,500 contracts, indicating a dominant bearish sentiment [4]. - The historical context shows that the only previous instance of holding exceeding 2 million contracts occurred in July 2023, which was followed by a significant price increase [4]. Group 3: Production Costs and Policy Impacts - The production of float glass primarily relies on three fuel types, with natural gas accounting for 59.38% of the process. Current profit margins for natural gas-based production are negative at -187.7 CNY/ton, while coal and petroleum coke processes show positive margins [5]. - A government initiative to convert coal-fired production lines to cleaner gas in the Shihezi area has faced delays, but recent reports indicate that four coal-fired lines will undergo repairs to improve efficiency and emissions, potentially supporting prices [6]. Group 4: Demand and Inventory Trends - Traditionally, the glass market sees a seasonal decrease in inventory during the peak demand period starting in September, but this year has seen an increase in inventory, with a total of 65.79 million heavy boxes reported by October 31, marking a seasonal accumulation of 3.224 million heavy boxes [8][9]. - The decline in demand is primarily driven by the real estate sector, which saw a 16.9% drop in completed area from January to October, leading to an estimated 11.8% decrease in glass demand, while automotive production increased by 13.1%, contributing a modest 2.6% to demand [9].
湖南省人大财经委、常委会预算工委——让代表“金点子”成为助推发展“金钥匙”(连线)
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-11-20 21:43
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the effective transformation of representative suggestions into actionable policies that support local industries, particularly in the electronic glass sector [1][3] - Hunan Shaohong Special Glass Co., Ltd. faced production challenges earlier this year but received 71 million yuan in special funding from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and provincial authorities, enabling the continuation of its high-end substrate glass production [1] - The Hunan Provincial People's Congress has established a comprehensive supervision system to ensure that every representative suggestion is addressed, with a focus on dynamic management and accountability [1][2] Group 2 - The Hunan Provincial People's Congress has implemented a follow-up mechanism to assess the effectiveness of suggestion handling, focusing on genuine problem-solving rather than superficial satisfaction rates [2] - A total of 423 representative suggestions have been efficiently processed this year, integrating them with the provincial "14th Five-Year Plan" and other legislative and supervisory efforts [3] - The approach taken by the Hunan Provincial People's Congress emphasizes the importance of continuous engagement with representatives to ensure that their valuable suggestions lead to meaningful development outcomes [3]
旗滨集团:截至11月10日股东数为95919户
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-11-20 10:52
Core Viewpoint - Qibin Group (601636) reported that as of November 10, 2025, the number of its shareholders is 95,919 households [1] Summary by Category - Company Information - Qibin Group has a projected shareholder count of 95,919 households by November 10, 2025 [1]
旗滨集团:公司主营玻璃产品研发制造与销售
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-11-20 10:45
Core Viewpoint - Qibin Group's main business focuses on the research, manufacturing, and sales of glass products [2] Company Summary - The company engages in the development of glass products [2] - Manufacturing is a key component of the company's operations [2] - Sales of glass products are a significant aspect of the company's business model [2]