Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The core local business of Meituan has shown excellent profit release, with a revenue of 866 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year growth. The adjusted net profit reached 109 billion yuan, a 46% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13%, up 3 percentage points [1][9] - The company is expected to increase subsidies starting Q2 2025 to maintain its competitive edge amid rising competition, particularly in the food delivery segment [2][19] - The flash purchase business has seen a 30% increase in order volume year-on-year, with a historical high in profit margins, and the company plans to enhance subsidies to expand market reach [3][22] - The in-store business is experiencing strong growth, particularly in lower-tier cities, with a 33% increase in GTV year-on-year [4][23] - New business segments, particularly overseas food delivery, are actively expanding, with a 19% increase in revenue year-on-year, although operating losses have also increased [27] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Meituan achieved a revenue of 866 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. The core local business generated 643 billion yuan in revenue, also up 18% year-on-year. The operating profit for the core local business was 135 billion yuan, a 39% increase year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 21% [1][9][17] Business Segments - The food delivery segment saw a 10% increase in order volume year-on-year, with a revenue growth of 14%. The average order value (AOV) decline has continued to narrow [2][19] - The flash purchase segment's revenue grew approximately 33%, with operating profit reaching 800 million yuan [3][22] - The in-store business's revenue increased by 21% year-on-year, with a focus on expanding in lower-tier cities [4][23] Future Outlook - The company maintains a positive long-term outlook, expecting adjusted net profits of 447 billion yuan, 587 billion yuan, and 718 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7][29] - The competitive landscape is anticipated to remain challenging, but Meituan's operational capabilities and compliance improvements are expected to support sustainable growth [7][29]

Core Insights - The collaboration between Marriott and Meituan aims to integrate resources in accommodation, dining, and local lifestyle, creating a comprehensive experience for consumers [1][2] - This partnership signifies a shift in the hospitality industry from merely selling rooms to offering a lifestyle experience, indicating a new competitive landscape focused on fulfilling diverse consumer scenarios [2][14] - The joint membership program is expected to enhance Marriott's member registration and attract a younger demographic, particularly those who are high-spending consumers on Meituan [5][6] Industry Trends - The hotel industry is witnessing a structural change, with brands like Marriott and Hilton targeting younger consumers and adapting to new market demands [2][4] - Data from STR indicates a decline in domestic hotel RevPAR by 4.3% year-on-year, highlighting the need for hotels to stabilize business travel while capturing leisure demand [4] - The collaboration is seen as a response to the evolving market dynamics, where traditional OTA models are being challenged by integrated lifestyle platforms [17] Membership and Consumer Behavior - Marriott has a global membership base of 219 million, primarily consisting of business travelers aged 30-40, while Meituan's young consumer base will complement this demographic [4][6] - The partnership allows for a high degree of synergy in consumer behavior and city distribution, with Meituan serving as a channel for Marriott to penetrate lower-tier cities [6][7] - The collaboration is expected to create a dual consumption cycle, where dining experiences can drive hotel bookings and vice versa, enhancing overall consumer engagement [10][12] Future Outlook - The partnership is viewed as a significant step towards creating a "super lifestyle membership ecosystem," moving beyond traditional loyalty programs [15][16] - Both companies aim to leverage their strengths to redefine user lifecycle value, transforming hotels into lifestyle hubs rather than mere accommodation providers [14][17] - The collaboration is anticipated to evolve further, with potential advancements driven by AI to enhance member services and operational efficiency [16]

Overall Performance - The company achieved revenue of 86.6 billion yuan in FY2025 Q1, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 85.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.1% [1] - Adjusted net profit totaled 10.95 billion yuan, surpassing the expected 9.73 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 46.2% [1] - The adjusted net profit margin was 12.6%, up by 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] Core Local Business - Revenue from core local business reached 64.3 billion yuan, growing 17.8% year-on-year, with operating profit of 13.5 billion yuan, a 39.1% increase [1] - The food delivery segment maintained healthy growth, with increased user engagement and order frequency [2] - The instant retail business, Meituan Flash Purchase, showed strong growth, with the number of flash warehouses and order proportion continuously rising [1][2] New Business Developments - New business revenue was 22.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.2%, and operating losses narrowed by 17.5% to 2.3 billion yuan [1] - Meituan's new initiatives in the education sector, such as "Anxin Study," have expanded the product categories and service range, with over 20,000 educational institutions connected [2] - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency in Meituan Youxuan, with expectations of reduced losses due to supply chain transformation and improved unit economics [3] Market Expansion and Competition - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, with Keeta launching in nine major cities in Saudi Arabia and plans to enter Brazil [3] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with JD and Ele.me increasing subsidy investments, and Alibaba upgrading its instant retail business [3] - Despite short-term performance fluctuations due to competitive pressures, the long-term growth trajectory remains positive, driven by a comprehensive local service ecosystem [3] Financial Projections - The company forecasts overall revenue of 390.4 billion, 437.7 billion, and 483.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits of 47.8 billion, 57.6 billion, and 69 billion yuan [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its robust local service network and growth potential in instant retail and overseas markets [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (3690.HK) is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - In FY2025Q1, Meituan achieved revenue of 86.6 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 85.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.1%. Adjusted net profit totaled 10.95 billion yuan, surpassing the expected 9.73 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 46.2%. Both revenue and profit exceeded expectations [2][6]. - Looking ahead, while short-term subsidy competition may disrupt profitability, Meituan's strategic determination and organizational resilience are expected to build its core competitiveness. The company is well-positioned to leverage its comprehensive local service ecosystem, driven by a three-sided transaction network of users, merchants, and fulfillment, alongside its dual engines of instant retail and in-store travel services for growth. International expansion and AI empowerment are anticipated to unlock long-term potential [2][6]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - Meituan's core local business generated revenue of 64.3 billion yuan in FY2025Q1, a year-on-year increase of 17.8%, with operating profit of 13.5 billion yuan, up 39.1%. New business revenue reached 22.2 billion yuan, growing 19.2%, with operating losses narrowing by 17.5% to 2.3 billion yuan [8]. Instant Retail Business - The food delivery segment showed steady growth, with daily order volume increasing compared to the previous quarter. The instant retail brand, Meituan Flash Purchase, launched in April, has over 30,000 flash warehouses and more than 500 million total transaction users. Flash purchase orders increased by 50% year-on-year, with significant growth in low-frequency non-instant categories [8]. In-store Travel Business - The in-store travel segment has substantial growth potential, with a 25% year-on-year increase in active merchants. New initiatives like "Anxin Study" have been introduced, connecting over 20,000 educational institutions nationwide. The company continues to invest in ecosystem development to enhance user engagement and consumption frequency across various categories [8]. New Business and International Expansion - Meituan's new business, Meituan Preferred, is improving operational efficiency, with expectations of narrowing losses. The overseas business, Keeta, has launched in nine major cities in Saudi Arabia and is expanding into Brazil, focusing on food delivery to build a high-frequency traffic network [8]. Investment Recommendations and Profit Forecast - The report anticipates that in Q2, competition from JD and Ele.me will intensify, leading to a slowdown in core local business revenue growth and a decline in operating profit margins. However, the report maintains a positive long-term outlook for Meituan's comprehensive local service ecosystem and projects overall revenues of 390.4 billion, 437.7 billion, and 483.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 47.8 billion, 57.6 billion, and 69 billion yuan [2][8].

Core Insights - The strategic partnership between Meituan and Marriott International aims to enhance customer experience by integrating hotel services with local lifestyle offerings, creating a comprehensive travel service platform [1][3] - The collaboration focuses on mutual membership benefits, allowing users to access both Meituan and Marriott's services seamlessly, particularly targeting younger consumers and emerging market users [3][5] Membership Integration - The partnership introduces a mutual recognition of membership levels, where Meituan and Dazhongdianping users can upgrade to corresponding Marriott membership tiers based on their existing status [6][8] - New members registered through Meituan can quickly access higher-tier Marriott memberships with significantly lower requirements compared to traditional standards [6][9] - Additional benefits include various vouchers and discounts for dining and hotel stays, enhancing the overall value proposition for members [6][21] Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The hotel industry is facing intense competition, with a notable decline in business travel demand and price wars, prompting high-end hotels to seek innovative ways to attract and retain members [3][9] - The collaboration is expected to tap into the growing demand from younger consumers, particularly those with significant spending power, as evidenced by the high booking rates from this demographic [9][10] - Data indicates a substantial increase in bookings for Marriott hotels following the membership integration, with a reported 88% surge in reservations on the first day of the partnership [9][10] Expansion into Lower-Tier Markets - Marriott is strategically expanding into lower-tier cities, with plans for 30%-40% of new openings in third and fourth-tier cities, capitalizing on the growing consumer base in these regions [12][14] - The shift towards lower-tier markets is driven by the saturation of first and second-tier city hotel markets, making it a new battleground for hotel groups [11][12] Enhanced Consumer Experience - The partnership aims to create a more integrated travel experience, combining accommodation with dining and entertainment options, aligning with the trend of consumers seeking comprehensive travel solutions [16][22] - Meituan's extensive platform allows for a diverse range of services, enhancing the potential for cross-selling and increasing customer loyalty through a more holistic approach to travel [23][22]

Core Viewpoint - Meituan's latest quarterly report exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching 86.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, and net profit soaring to 10.06 billion RMB, up 87% year-on-year. However, the market reacted negatively due to CEO Wang Xing's strong statement about winning competition "at all costs," leading to a lack of guidance for Q2 and the rest of the year [1][2][18]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the quarter was 86.557 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.1% [2]. - Operating profit margin increased significantly from 7.1% in the same period last year to 12.2% [1][2]. - Net profit for the quarter was 10.056 billion RMB, reflecting an 87.3% year-on-year increase [2]. - Adjusted EBITDA reached 12.302 billion RMB, a 52.4% increase compared to the previous year [2]. Business Strategy - Meituan's food delivery business has transitioned from loss to profitability, with a remarkable operating profit margin of 17.4% as of 2024, according to JP Morgan's report [4][7]. - The strategic value of the food delivery business is immense, as it helps bind user demand and provides significant cash flow, with cash and cash equivalents totaling 115 billion RMB and short-term investments at 65.4 billion RMB [8][10]. - The food delivery business also supports the rapid expansion of Meituan's "instant retail" segment, with a 50% year-on-year increase in orders [10]. Competitive Landscape - Meituan faces competition from JD.com and other platforms, which may challenge its market share and pricing power [18]. - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining user engagement and market dominance, even if it means sacrificing short-term profits [14][15]. - The strategic approach of "spending at all costs" is seen as a tactical move to deter competitors and maintain market leadership [18].

公司1Q2025综合毛利率上升2.4个百分点，核心本地商业收入同增17.8% 1Q2025公司综合毛利率为37.4%，同比上升2.4个百分点。分业务来看，1Q2025公司核心本地商业收入 643.25亿元，同比增长17.8%，经营利润134.91亿元，经营利润率21.0%，同比提升3.2pct；新业务分部收 入222.32亿元，同比增长19.2%，经营亏损22.73亿元，经营利润率-10.2%，同比提升4.6pct。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 公司1Q2025营收同比增长18.1%，经调整净利润同比增长46.2% 公司公布2025年一季报：1Q2025实现营业收入865.57亿元，同比增长18.1%，实现本公司股东应占溢利 100.57亿元，同比增长 ...

Core Viewpoint - Meituan reported a strong Q1 2025 performance with revenue of 86.6 billion yuan, marking an 18% year-on-year growth, driven by robust core business growth, explosive growth in instant retail, and successful international expansion [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Meituan's core local commerce segment revenue grew by 17.8% to 64.3 billion yuan, while new business revenue increased by 19.2% to 22.2 billion yuan, with operating losses narrowing by 17.9% to 2.3 billion yuan [2][4] - Instant retail, particularly Meituan's flash purchase service, saw significant growth, with daily order volume surpassing 18 million and cumulative transaction users exceeding 500 million [2][4] Group 2: International Expansion - Meituan's international business made significant strides, with its platform Keeta gaining popularity in Saudi Arabia, achieving 3.6 million downloads and becoming one of the top three food delivery platforms in the region [4][6] - The company plans to enter the Brazilian market with a commitment to invest 1 billion USD in the Keeta project over the next five years [6] Group 3: Ecosystem Development - Meituan is focused on building a sustainable ecosystem to enhance user experience, support merchants, and improve rider welfare, with initiatives like the "10 billion support fund" benefiting over 180,000 merchants [7][10] - Rider income has shown stable growth, with average monthly earnings in major cities ranging from 7,230 yuan to 10,100 yuan, and top-performing riders in first-tier cities earning up to 12,593 yuan [8][9] Group 4: Commitment to Industry Growth - Meituan aims to contribute to economic development by investing 100 billion yuan over the next three years to support various merchants and stimulate consumer demand [10]

Core Insights - Meituan's Q1 2025 financial results exceeded expectations, with revenue of 86.56 billion (+18.1%), operating profit of 10.57 billion (+102.8%), and adjusted net profit of 10.95 billion (+46.2%) [1] - The company maintains a strong outlook on its domestic core business barriers and growth potential, while also exploring new growth opportunities in overseas markets [1][3] Revenue Growth and Core Business Performance - Q1 revenue growth was driven by the local commerce segment, which generated 64.32 billion (+17.8%) in revenue and an operating profit of 13.49 billion (+39.1%) [1] - New business revenue reached 22.23 billion (+19.2%), although it reported an operating loss of 2.27 billion [1] Delivery and Flash Purchase Insights - In Q1, the average daily order volume for food delivery showed steady growth, supported by improved advertising monetization and subsidy efficiency, leading to a significant increase in operating profit margin (OPM) [2] - Flash purchase segment maintained rapid growth in order volume, achieving an OPM of approximately 10% driven by advertising and subsidy improvements [2] Store and Offline Business Performance - The in-store segment saw a revenue increase to approximately 15.1 billion (+20%), with a stable OPM, driven by growth in various new scenarios [2] - Q2 expectations indicate a slight slowdown in growth for the in-store segment due to competition and seasonal factors [2] New Business Expansion - Keeta is set to enter the Brazilian market, with plans to invest 1 billion USD over the next five years following a strategic cooperation agreement [3] - Despite the anticipated growth in new business revenue driven by Keeta, overall losses are expected to widen [3] Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve a core business operating profit of 53.2 billion for 2025, with an estimated net profit of 45.3 billion, leading to a target price of 156 HKD based on a 20x PE ratio [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company's Q1 2025 financial performance exceeded market expectations, with significant growth in core local business and new business revenues [1] Group 1: Overall Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 86.6 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 18% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 2% [1] - Operating profit for Q1 2025 was 10.6 billion yuan, up 103% year-over-year and 58% quarter-over-quarter [1] - Net profit for Q1 2025 was 10.1 billion yuan, reflecting an 87% year-over-year increase and a 62% quarter-over-quarter increase [1] - Non-GAAP EBITDA for Q1 2025 was 12.3 billion yuan, a 52% year-over-year increase and a 7% quarter-over-quarter increase [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.9 billion yuan, up 46% year-over-year and 11% quarter-over-quarter [1] Group 2: Core Local Business - Core local business revenue grew 18% year-over-year to 64.3 billion yuan, driven by increased transaction volume and reduced subsidy deductions [2] - Operating profit for core local business increased 39% year-over-year to 13.5 billion yuan, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 12.2 billion yuan [2] - The company anticipates a slowdown in revenue growth for Q2 2025 due to intensified industry competition [2] Group 3: Business Segments - **Food Delivery Business**: Q1 2025 food delivery orders increased by 9.3% year-over-year, with over 480 brands launching more than 3,000 high-quality satellite stores [2] - **Meituan Flash Purchase**: Q1 2025 saw strong growth in flash purchase business, with over 500 million cumulative transaction users and daily order volume exceeding 18 million [3] - **In-store Travel Business**: Q1 2025 in-store travel revenue grew 20% year-over-year, with active merchants increasing by over 25% [3] Group 4: New Business and International Expansion - New business revenue grew 19% year-over-year to 22.2 billion yuan, with operating losses narrowing to 2.3 billion yuan [4] - Keeta has become the largest food delivery platform in Hong Kong and is expanding into Saudi Arabia and Brazil, with a commitment to invest 1 billion USD over five years [4] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Long-term outlook remains positive for the company's core competencies in instant delivery and international expansion, despite increased competition [5] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 387.3 billion, 447.7 billion, and 510.6 billion yuan respectively, with Non-GAAP net profit estimates of 40.9 billion, 54.7 billion, and 67.6 billion yuan [5] - The target market capitalization for 2025 is set at 830.2 billion yuan, with a target price of 136 yuan per share [5]