Core Viewpoint - The market is currently in a consolidation phase since late August, with upward movement constrained by profit-taking after rapid gains, indicating a need for new catalysts for future performance [1] - The global monetary order is undergoing rapid restructuring, leading to a decline in the safety of dollar assets and a revaluation of RMB assets, suggesting that the foundation for market growth remains intact [1] Industry Recommendations - High consensus industries such as AI computing power and robotics are still worth focusing on in the medium term, as long as there is no significant downturn in industry prosperity [1] - Sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer electronics, batteries, and non-ferrous metals have already seen substantial gains, but they still hold good allocation value due to supply clearing and demand improvement [1] - Sub-industries within non-ferrous metals are expected to benefit directly from macro changes due to the global monetary order restructuring [1] - Industries like engineering machinery, power grid equipment, and aquaculture have not experienced significant gains but offer good cost-performance ratios when considering capacity cycle positions and overseas expansion prospects [1] Capacity Cycle Perspective - Identifying turning point industries and elastic sectors from a capacity cycle perspective remains meaningful, with a focus on sectors that can achieve capacity clearing and demand improvement [4] - The current market shows that most industries are in the deepening phase of capacity reduction, with a notable increase in industries entering the clearing phase [5] - The report highlights key industries for 2024, including communication equipment, commercial vehicles, and lithium batteries, identified through capacity cycle analysis [4][5] High-End Manufacturing - High-end manufacturing has shown significant improvement in capacity cycle positions, with key sectors like automotive parts, communication equipment, consumer electronics, components, batteries, and medical services recommended for allocation [8][9] - The battery sector is expected to lead in capacity clearing and expansion due to high demand growth and significant reductions in capital expenditure across the industry [8] Traditional Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing - Traditional manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors have seen prolonged periods of reduced capital expenditure, with higher standards for recognizing capacity clearing due to weaker demand [10] - Notable sectors for potential investment include engineering machinery, aquaculture, and feed, which have undergone significant capital expenditure reductions and are showing signs of demand stabilization [10]

Market Overview - The small metal sector experienced a decline of 0.78% on September 26, with Yunnan Zhenye leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3828.11, down 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13209.0, down 1.76% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the small metal sector included: - Zhongtung High-tech (000657) with a closing price of 18.43, up 3.48% and a trading volume of 843,200 shares, totaling 1.558 billion yuan [1] - Guiyan Platinum (600459) closed at 16.10, up 2.94% with a trading volume of 419,900 shares, totaling 689 million yuan [1] - Zhongkuang Resources (002738) closed at 44.56, up 2.46% with a trading volume of 300,500 shares, totaling 1.334 billion yuan [1] - Major decliners included: - Yunnan Cuo Industry (002428) closed at 27.52, down 3.47% with a trading volume of 336,900 shares, totaling 946 million yuan [2] - Dongfang Cuo Industry (002167) closed at 13.51, down 2.95% with a trading volume of 316,600 shares, totaling 436 million yuan [2] - Northern Rare Earth (600111) closed at 46.39, down 1.88% with a trading volume of 1,315,600 shares, totaling 6.223 billion yuan [2] Capital Flow - The small metal sector saw a net outflow of 420 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 327 million yuan [2][3] - Notable capital flows included: - Zhongtung High-tech (000657) had a main fund net inflow of 254 million yuan, but a retail net outflow of 238 million yuan [3] - Shenghe Resources (600392) experienced a main fund net inflow of 152 million yuan, with significant retail outflows [3] - Guosheng Nonferrous (600259) had a main fund net inflow of 71.7 million yuan, but retail outflows of 45.7 million yuan [3]

Company Overview - Changyuan Tungsten Industry Co., Ltd. is located in Chongyi County, Ganzhou City, Jiangxi Province, established on February 28, 2000, and listed on March 31, 2010 [2] - The company specializes in the tungsten industry chain, including products such as APT, tungsten oxide, tungsten powder, tungsten carbide powder, tungsten materials, and hard alloys [2] - The revenue composition includes tungsten carbide powder (34.10%), tungsten powder (31.47%), hard alloys (21.28%), and other products [2] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.399 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 115 million yuan, up 2.54% year-on-year [2] - Since its A-share listing, the company has distributed a total of 862 million yuan in dividends, with 269 million yuan distributed in the last three years [3] Stock Market Activity - On September 26, the stock price increased by 2.14%, reaching 12.41 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 419 million yuan and a turnover rate of 2.85%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 14.91 billion yuan [1] - Year-to-date, the stock price has risen by 93.97%, with a slight decline of 0.24% over the last five trading days and a 16.43% drop over the last 20 days [1] - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" twice this year, with the most recent appearance on August 26, where it recorded a net buy of -121 million yuan [1] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders was 54,300, a decrease of 3.46% from the previous period, with an average of 22,019 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 3.58% [2] - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 8.7857 million shares, and other significant shareholders such as Yinhua XinJia Two-Year Holding Period Mixed Fund and Southern CSI 1000 ETF [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the Shenzhen Composite Index, driven by the robust growth of technology stocks, particularly in the AI sector and other emerging industries [4]. Market Performance - The Shenzhen Composite Index reached a new high, outperforming the Shanghai market, with the ChiNext Index leading the three major indices due to strong performance in technology growth stocks [4]. - The market saw a total trading volume of 2.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a 1.9% increase, indicating high overall market activity and participation enthusiasm [7]. Sector Analysis - Key sectors showing strength include CPO (light modules), liquid-cooled servers, AI applications, gaming and media, certain renewable energy stocks, and non-ferrous metals [5]. - Conversely, sectors such as precious metals, port shipping, oil and gas extraction, textiles, agriculture, home appliances, banking, liquor (baijiu), and real estate exhibited weak performance [5]. Capital Flow - There was a net outflow of funds from major players, while retail investors showed a net inflow, indicating a shift in investment strategies [8]. - Institutional investors are favoring technology and high-end manufacturing sectors driven by policy support and high economic activity, with significant capital flowing into power equipment, computer devices, and digital economy sectors [8]. Investor Sentiment - Retail investor sentiment is at 75.85%, with a notable portion of investors increasing their positions (30.74%) while others are reducing their holdings (21.34%) [9][12]. - The overall sentiment reflects a cautious optimism among retail investors, with many actively participating in the market despite the mixed performance of various sectors [9].

Core Insights - The small metals sector experienced a rise of 1.03% on September 25, with Zhongkuang Resources leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.3, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13445.9, up 0.67% [1] Small Metals Sector Performance - Zhongkuang Resources (002738) closed at 43.49, up 4.32%, with a trading volume of 401,800 shares and a transaction value of 1.754 billion [1] - Xianglu Tungsten Industry (002842) closed at 10.60, up 3.72%, with a trading volume of 280,100 shares [1] - Western Materials (002149) closed at 17.64, up 3.40%, with a trading volume of 218,100 shares and a transaction value of 381 million [1] - Xiamen Tungsten Industry (600549) closed at 28.78, up 2.68%, with a trading volume of 1,570,900 shares and a transaction value of 1.628 billion [1] - Northern Rare Earth (600111) closed at 47.28, up 1.59%, with a trading volume of 1,483,800 shares and a transaction value of 7.025 billion [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The small metals sector saw a net inflow of 478 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 823 million [2][3] - Northern Rare Earth (600111) had a net inflow of 27.7 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 360 million from retail investors [3] - Xiamen Tungsten Industry (600549) recorded a net inflow of 126 million from institutional investors, with a significant net outflow of 198 million from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - Northern Rare Earth has shown significant stock performance with a year-to-date increase of 124.12%, despite a recent decline in the last five and twenty trading days [1][2]. Company Overview - Northern Rare Earth (China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech Co., Ltd.) is located in Baotou, Inner Mongolia, and was established on September 12, 1997. It was listed on September 24, 1997. The company specializes in rare earth raw materials, functional materials, and some terminal application products [1]. - The revenue composition of the company includes 72.25% from rare earth products, 21.39% from trading, 4.51% from environmental products and services, and smaller percentages from other categories [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Northern Rare Earth achieved an operating income of 18.866 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 45.24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 931 million yuan, a staggering increase of 1951.52% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 5.358 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 994 million yuan distributed in the last three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 10, 2025, the number of shareholders for Northern Rare Earth was 660,000, a decrease of 8.33% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 9.09% to 5,477 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include significant institutional investors, with Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holding 139 million shares, an increase of 40.4142 million shares from the previous period [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent cobalt export policy from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) extends the export suspension until October 15, 2025, and introduces a quota system starting October 16, 2025, which will significantly impact the cobalt market dynamics [2][3][6]. Group 1: Export Control and Quota System - Temporary export suspension extended until October 15, 2025 [3][4]. - Quota system to be implemented starting October 16, 2025, with specific conditions and distribution methods to be outlined in a forthcoming resolution [3][4]. - Maximum export authorization for the period from October 16 to December 31, 2025, is set at 18,125 tons, with monthly allowances specified [3][4]. Group 2: Long-term Supply Dynamics - The total export quota for 2026 is capped at 96,600 tons, consisting of 87,000 tons as "basic quota" and 9,600 tons as "strategic quota" [3][4]. - The basic quota allows for a monthly allocation of 7,250 tons, with distribution based on historical export volumes, excluding certain companies [3][4]. - Strategic quotas are designated for projects of national importance, with ARECOMS having full discretion over their allocation [4][5]. Group 3: Market Implications - The quota volume represents a 56% reduction compared to last year's exports of nearly 220,000 tons, indicating a potential tightening of supply [6][7]. - Current industry chain inventory is approximately four months, suggesting that the end of the suspension and shipping delays could lead to significant inventory depletion [6][7]. - The uncertainty surrounding future quota allocations and the limited capacity for increased supply from Indonesia highlights the challenges in meeting demand [6][7]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Short-term focus on companies less affected by DRC policies, such as Huayou Cobalt and Liqin Resources, which possess quality nickel-cobalt resources in Indonesia [6][7]. - Long-term advantages are expected for companies with substantial resource reserves and production capacity, such as Luoyang Molybdenum and flexible companies like Tengyuan Cobalt and Hanrui Cobalt [6][7].

Group 1 - The small metal sector experienced a decline of 1.67% on September 24, with Tian Gong Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.64, up 0.83%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13356.14, up 1.8% [1] - Notable gainers in the small metal sector included Dongfang Silver Industry, which rose by 6.23%, and Haotong Technology, which increased by 4.76% [1] Group 2 - The small metal sector saw a net outflow of 389 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 609 million yuan [3] - The trading volume and turnover for key stocks in the small metal sector were significant, with Yunnan Pig Industry achieving a turnover of 1.351 billion yuan [1][3]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The temporary export control has been extended until October 15, 2025, which may impact market expectations and inventory depletion pace [2][3] - The quota system will be implemented starting October 16, with specific conditions and distribution methods to be outlined in a forthcoming resolution [2] - The total quota is set at 96,600 tons for 2026, significantly lower than last year's export volume of nearly 220,000 tons, indicating a potential supply-demand tight balance or even shortage in the medium to long term [3] Summary by Sections Export Policy Changes - The export suspension period has been extended to October 15, 2025 [2] - A quota system will be introduced, with specific details to be communicated to market participants [2] Market Outlook - The quota volume is only 96,600 tons, a 56% reduction compared to last year's export, leading to a potential supply shortage [3] - Current industry chain inventory is approximately four months, which could exacerbate supply tightness if any segment holds excess stock [3] - Uncertainty regarding the distribution of future quotas and limited short-term supply from Indonesia's MHP further complicates the outlook [3] Investment Recommendations - In the short term, focus on companies not affected by the Congo (DRC) policy, such as Huayou Cobalt and Liqin Resources, which have quality nickel-cobalt resources in Indonesia [4] - In the long term, companies with substantial resource reserves and leading production capacity in the DRC will have a competitive advantage post-quota implementation [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a broad increase in small metal concept stocks, indicating positive market sentiment in this sector [1] - Huaxi Nonferrous Metals surged over 6%, reflecting strong investor interest and potential growth in the company [1] - Haotong Technology rose more than 3%, suggesting a favorable outlook for its business performance [1] Group 2 - Guiyan Platinum Industry increased by over 2%, indicating a positive trend in the precious metals segment [1] - Other companies such as China Rare Earth, Zhongkuang Resources, Guangsheng Nonferrous Metals, and Zhongtung High-tech also experienced gains, highlighting a broader rally in the small metal sector [1]