今日（2月3日）揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色ETF华宝（159876）场内价格盘中涨超4.1%，现涨2.2%，终结此前的2连跌。 成份股方面，国城矿业、中稀有色领涨超4%，湖南黄金涨逾3%，钢研高纳、紫金矿业、楚江新材等个股跟涨。权重股方面，紫金矿业涨超2%，洛阳钼 业涨逾1%。 | 序号 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 两日图 | 申万一级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 国城矿业 | 4.38% | | 有色金属 | 工业会属 | 铝锌 | 331亿 | 1.64亿 | | 2 | 中标有色 | 4.11% | mi | 有色金属 | 小金属 | 稀土 | 269Z | 3.07亿 | | | 份据歷贤 | 3.81% | M | 有色会属 | 普金属 | 商金 | 54075 | 26.18亿 | | | 钢研高纳 | 2.78% | mil | 国防军工 | 航空装备Ⅱ | 航空装备Ⅱ | 165亿 | 7952.00万 | | 34567 | 崇 ...

值得关注的是，今日现货黄金开盘反弹，截至发稿，重回4800美元/盎司，日内涨超3%。分析指出，量 化基金去杠杆化、杠杆ETF和趋势跟踪策略头寸调整所引发的强制抛售潮，其主体部分可能已基本释 放。 消息面上，特朗普称正在与伊朗对话。当地时间2月2日，针对伊朗问题，美国总统特朗普表示，美方已 向相关地区调动大型军舰，同时与伊朗保持沟通，"将观察事态如何发展"。 新湖期货认为，黄金价格中长期支撑仍存，指出沃什获提名及由此引发的汇率波动属于短期扰动，中期 市场焦点仍将集中于地缘政治风险升温与特朗普政府政策的高度不确定性；而长期来看，全球债务可持 续性恶化与去美元化趋势的深化，是支撑黄金结构性走强的核心变量。目前，上述中长期逻辑并未发生 根本性逆转。 中信证券指出，在经历2025年的大涨行情后，有色金属价格与股票行情的上涨动能依然充足，供应扰 动、需求局部高景气和囤货行为为金属价格带来强支撑，流动性宽松带来的交易活跃度上升以及地缘冲 突带来的避险情绪升温有望放大金属的价格弹性。看好贵金属、工业金属、电池金属和战略金属板块的 配置价值。 今日（2月3日）揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色ETF华宝（159876）场内价格盘中涨超 ...

今日（2月3日）揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色ETF华宝（159876）场内价格盘中涨超4.1%，现涨 2.2%，终结此前的2连跌。 成份股方面，国城矿业、中稀有色领涨超4%，湖南黄金涨逾3%，钢研高纳、紫金矿业、楚江新材等个 股跟涨。权重股方面，紫金矿业涨超2%，洛阳钼业涨逾1%。 ETF费用相关说明：投资者在申购或赎回基金份额时，申购赎回代理机构可按照不超过0.5%的标准收取 佣金，场内交易费用以证券公司实际收取为准。ETF不收取销售服务费。联接基金相关费用说明：华宝 中证有色金属ETF发起式联接基金（A类）申购费率为申购金额200万元（含）以上时1000元/笔，100万 元（含）~200万元时0.6%，100万元以下时1%；赎回费率为持有天数7日以下时1.5%，持有天数7日 （含）以上时0%，不收取销售服务费。华宝中证有色金属ETF发起式联接基金（C类）不收取申购费， 赎回费率为持有天数7日以下时1.5%，持有天数7日（含）以上时0%；销售服务费为0.3%。 | 序号 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 两日留 | 申万一级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交额 | | --- | -- ...

业内人士指出，从过往经验来看，每一轮大宗商品周期都很长(一轮完整的大宗商品周期为25~30年，其 中上行8~10年，下行15~20年)，一旦方向确立，大宗商品周期则会持续很长时间，不会在两三年结束。 展望后市，有色金属板块有望持续走牛也成为机构普遍共识。中金公司（601995）指出，2026年，有色 行业有望迎来货币、需求和供应共振向上的牛市；中信建投（601066）则认为有色牛市有望再进阶。 有色ETF华宝(159876)及其联接基金(017140)标的指数全面覆盖铜、铝、黄金、稀土、锂等行业，涵盖 贵金属(避险)、战略金属(成长)、工业金属(复苏)等不同景气周期，全品类覆盖能够更好把握整个板块的 贝塔行情。 中国银河（601881）证券建议把握"AI飞跃+百年变局"共振下的有色金属超级周期。回顾历史，每一轮 超级铜周期都对应一段清晰而强大的宏观叙事，而本轮周期同时叠加了"AI科技革命"与"全球秩序重 塑"两大长期逻辑，其持续性和战略意义不亚于战后重建、我国对外开放等历史阶段。 经历了前两日的大跌，2月3日，有色板块迎来反弹，热门ETF品种——有色ETF华宝(159876)早盘高开 高走，目前大涨3%。最近 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices rebounded to over $4800 per ounce, with a daily increase of more than 3% [1][7] - The forced selling wave caused by quantitative funds deleveraging and adjustments in leveraged ETFs has likely been mostly released [1][7] - Bank of America views gold as a crucial hedge against dollar depreciation, stating that "currency devaluation is the basic scenario" [1][7] - JPMorgan predicts that gold will remain a flexible and diverse hedging tool, with current investor demand exceeding previous expectations, potentially driving prices to $6300 per ounce by the end of 2026 [1][7] - New Lake Futures believes that long-term support for gold prices remains, with geopolitical risks and uncertainty in Trump’s policies being key focus areas [1][7] Group 2: Base Metals Outlook - Citic Securities maintains a long-term bullish outlook on the non-ferrous metals sector, citing strong price support from supply disruptions and high demand in certain areas [2][8] - The liquidity easing and rising trading activity, along with heightened risk aversion due to geopolitical conflicts, are expected to amplify price elasticity for metals [2][8] - Huatai Securities recommends a moderate allocation of 10%-20% in non-ferrous metals within investment portfolios to share in potential gains while diversifying risk [2][8] - The Huabao Non-Ferrous Metals ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of industries, including precious metals, strategic metals, and industrial metals, providing a comprehensive approach to capturing sector performance [2][8]

或受金银暴跌扰动，今日（2月2日）有色金属板块延续颓势，有色ETF华宝（159876）开盘场内价格一 度跌超7%，现跌5.35%，跌幅略有缩窄。截至发稿，该ETF获资金实时净申购1080万份，或有资金逢跌 抢筹！ 成份股方面，15只个股跌停，国城矿业、盛新锂能、钢研高纳涨超2%，宝钛股份、中稀有色等个股飘 红。 消息面上，特朗普新任命沃什为美联储主席，沃什此前公开发言偏鹰引发市场担忧，但考虑到美国经济 现状，偏鹰做法或难以落地。从降息预期来看，据CME FedWatch数据，新主席人选公布前后，市场对 年内首次降息时点的预期均稳定在6月，全年降息两次的判断亦未改变；从缩表预期来看，上周FOMC 会议延续了自去年12月以来的扩表操作，规模维持在每月400亿美元，市场对"缩表"的预期可能过于超 前，短期现实仍是联储扩表。此外，沃什的政策倾向主要源于其历史表态，但作为特朗普认可的人选， 特朗普认为其更适合推动美联储改革与降息，其上任后激进加息的概率不大。 业内人士认为，本轮回调的催化因素尚未对短期基本面形成实质冲击，黄金或存在超跌反弹机会。首 先，当前贵金属隐含波动率已升至极端水平，参考2020年3月末黄金大幅回撤 ...

1月收官日（1月30日）有色金属出现罕见的跌停潮，板块热门ETF——有色ETF华宝（159876）全天深 陷水面以下，场内价格最低下探9.98%，最终收跌9.61%，然而资金却逆市增仓，呈现"越跌越买"的态 势，该ETF全天获资金净申购1.56亿份。 成份股方面，59只个股尽墨，山东黄金、中国铝业等20股跌停，而湖南黄金逆市5连板，获主力资金净 流入68.93亿元，霸居A股吸金榜榜首。 有色金属板块今日为何暴跌？ ①外因方面，美联储或迎"趋鹰派"主席。今晚特朗普预计宣布新任美联储主席，市场预计凯文·沃什当 选后，流动性盛宴将结束，在消息公布前抛售锁定利润；②内因方面，监管降温。交易所集体上调黄 金、白银、锡等品种的保证金比例和涨跌停板幅度，迫使高杠杆的投机资金必须在节前/周末前被动平 仓；③产业层面，春节前补库落空，澳洲南美锂矿发货量激增，碳酸锂价格今日跌停。 资金为何逆行加仓，越跌越买？ ①外因方面，凯文•沃什得到特朗普明确支持，特朗普认为其更适合推动美联储改革与降息，其上任后 激进加息的概率不大；②推升有色金属价格中枢的因素，并未根本改变，如全球仍处于货币宽松周期， 产业升级浪潮下，AI、军工等新兴产业所 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rare drop in the non-ferrous metal sector on January 30, with a significant decline in the popular ETF, reflects market reactions to external and internal factors, while simultaneously showing a trend of increased investment despite falling prices [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 30, the non-ferrous metal sector experienced a notable drop, with the popular ETF, Huabao Non-Ferrous Metal ETF (159876), falling to a low of 9.98% before closing down 9.61% [1][3]. - Despite the decline, the ETF saw a net subscription of 156 million units, indicating a "buy the dip" mentality among investors [1][3]. - Among the 59 constituent stocks, 20 stocks, including Shandong Gold and China Aluminum, hit the daily limit down, while Hunan Gold achieved a five-day consecutive rise with a net inflow of 6.893 billion yuan, topping the A-share capital inflow list [1][3]. Group 2: Reasons for Market Drop - External factors include the anticipated appointment of a hawkish Federal Reserve chairman, Kevin Warsh, which is expected to end the liquidity boom, prompting profit-taking before the announcement [3][11]. - Internal factors involve regulatory tightening, with exchanges raising margin requirements and price limits for gold, silver, and tin, forcing high-leverage speculative funds to liquidate positions before the holiday [3][11]. - On the industrial side, pre-holiday inventory replenishment fell short, and there was a surge in shipments from lithium mines in Australia and South America, leading to a price drop for lithium carbonate [3][11]. Group 3: Reasons for Increased Investment - External factors supporting increased investment include Trump's endorsement of Kevin Warsh, suggesting a lower probability of aggressive rate hikes under his leadership [4][13]. - The fundamental drivers for non-ferrous metal prices remain unchanged, with ongoing global monetary easing and the strategic value of metals needed for emerging industries like AI and military applications [4][13]. - Earnings forecasts for non-ferrous metal stocks are generally positive, with many companies expected to report favorable results for 2025 [4][13]. - Guosheng Securities predicts that the combination of supply-demand mismatch, macroeconomic easing, and industrial upgrades will sustain high profitability in the non-ferrous sector for the next 3-5 years [4][13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the global risk asset market, particularly focusing on the surge in demand for precious metals and the performance of the Huabao ETF amid geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic factors [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Geopolitical risks have led to a significant drop in global risk assets, prompting some investors to take profits, which has resulted in a sharp decline in gold and silver prices [1]. - Despite the market downturn, the Huabao ETF saw a net subscription of 142 million units, indicating a counter-trend investment in the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. - The demand for non-ferrous metals is supported by macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's ongoing easing policies, rising geopolitical uncertainties, and concerns over the sustainability of U.S. debt and deficits [3]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to maintain a high profitability state for an extended period, driven by new demand from emerging industries such as renewable energy, AI, and aerospace [4]. - Domestic non-ferrous metal companies are valued lower compared to their international counterparts, despite having similar growth potential and core competitiveness [4]. - The industry is experiencing a significant output gap due to a long-term contraction in capital expenditures since 2011, which continues to support prices and highlight the strategic value of these metals [3]. Group 3: Performance Indicators - As of January 28, 2025, 24 out of 60 listed companies covered by the non-ferrous ETF have released earnings forecasts, with 21 companies expected to be profitable, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3]. - The Huabao ETF covers a wide range of metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing investors to capture the overall sector's performance effectively [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical risks have led to a significant drop in global risk assets, yet there is a notable increase in investment in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in the Huabao ETF, which saw a net subscription of 142 million units despite a market downturn [1][9]. Group 1: Macro Factors - The Federal Reserve is still in a rate-cutting cycle, creating a loose monetary environment [3][11]. - Rising geopolitical uncertainties are increasing demand for safe-haven assets [3][11]. - Concerns over the sustainability of U.S. debt and deficits are prompting central banks worldwide to reduce U.S. Treasury holdings and increase gold reserves, leading to a diversification of reserve systems [3][11]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - Emerging industries such as renewable energy, AI, and aerospace are continuously driving demand for non-ferrous metals [3][11]. - Capital expenditures for major non-ferrous metal types peaked in 2011 and have since entered a prolonged contraction phase, resulting in a significant output gap in the industry [3][11]. - Supply constraints persist, providing price support and highlighting the strategic value and scarcity of these metals [3][11]. Group 3: Performance Outlook - As of January 28, among the 60 listed companies covered by the non-ferrous ETF, 24 have released earnings forecasts for 2025, with 21 expected to be profitable, indicating a positive outlook for nearly 90% of the companies [3][11]. - The high profitability of the non-ferrous metals sector is expected to continue for an extended period, with the sector gradually gaining growth attributes and deserving of a value reassessment [4][12]. - Domestic non-ferrous metal companies are valued lower compared to their overseas counterparts, despite having comparable growth potential and core competitiveness [4][12]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The Huabao ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of non-ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing investors to capture the entire sector's beta performance [5][13]. - It is recommended to allocate 10%-20% of investment portfolios to the non-ferrous metals sector to benefit from price increases while diversifying risk [4][12].