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美以情报机构现惊天分歧!到底谁在撒谎?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-06-17 10:19
Group 1 - Israel's recent airstrikes on Iran were aimed at preventing the country from advancing its nuclear weapons program, but U.S. intelligence suggests that Iran is not actively seeking nuclear weapons and is still years away from being able to produce and deliver them [1][2] - Despite significant damage to Iran's Natanz facility, the Fordow facility remains intact, which is crucial for Iran's nuclear ambitions, and experts indicate that Israel lacks the capability to destroy it without U.S. military support [1][8] - The U.S. military and intelligence community have differing interpretations of Iran's nuclear intentions, with some U.S. officials expressing urgency regarding Iran's potential nuclear capabilities [5][6] Group 2 - The U.S. is repositioning military assets in the region to support Israel and ensure the protection of U.S. forces, with the Nimitz carrier strike group moving towards the Middle East [4][3] - There is a debate within the Trump administration regarding the level of U.S. involvement in Israel's actions against Iran, with some advisors advocating for a more isolationist approach while others push for military support [2][3] - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has raised concerns about Iran's accumulation of uranium, which is close to weapon-grade levels, indicating a potential for Iran to manufacture nuclear weapons if it chooses to do so [6][8]
伊朗会是第二个阿萨德政权下的叙利亚吗?
虎嗅APP· 2025-06-15 03:38
以下文章来源于底线思维 ,作者王世纯 底线思维 . 观察者网时评专栏 本文来自微信公众号: 底线思维 (ID:dixiansiwei) ,作者 :王世纯,原文标题:《伊朗会是第 二个阿萨德叙利亚吗?》,头图来自:视觉中国(图为当地时间2025年6月13日,伊朗德黑兰,以色 列袭击伊朗首都后,消防员和民众在一处居民区清理爆炸现场) 本周最大的军事新闻,无疑是以色列对伊朗的成功袭击。6月13日,以色列战机空袭了伊朗首都德黑 兰的多个高级军官和核科学家住所、伊朗城市皮兰沙赫尔的战略导弹基地、哈马丹和纳坦兹铀浓缩设 施等数十个目标,取得丰硕战果。目前,以军的空袭仍在继续,开源消息证实伊朗遭受了重大物质损 失和人员损失。多名伊朗高级官员被以色列的空袭消灭。 伊朗中央决策层遭受一轮重创 到笔者完稿之时,伊朗官方媒体已经证实多名高级指挥官和科学家死亡,死亡的高级官员包括但不限 于伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队总司令侯赛因·萨拉米、伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队中央司令官员古拉姆·阿里·拉希 德、伊朗原子能组织前负责人费雷杜恩·阿巴斯和伊朗核科学家穆罕默德·迈赫迪·德黑兰奇等。 在一众身亡的高级官员之中,最大的损失则是总参谋长穆罕默德·巴盖里少将和 ...
金荣中国:现货黄金小幅延续跌势,目前交投于3312美元附近
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-09 09:51
周一(6月9日)亚盘时段,现货黄金小幅延续跌势后低位震荡,目前交投于3312美元附近。刚刚过去的一周,金价冲高回落,受地缘局势担忧等因素影响, 现货黄金在上周一(6月2日)曾上涨近3%,至3380附近,随后的几个交易日震荡运行,因为美国经济数据表现不佳,在上周四(6月6日)一度涨至3402美 元/盎司,但随着国际贸易局势传来乐观消息,金价开始回吐涨幅,由于非农数据强于市场预期,现货黄金上周五下跌1.22%,收报3311.86美元/盎司,周线 涨幅约0.65%。 美元兑其他主要货币上周五上涨0.47%,收报99.20,因为数据显示美国5月份就业增长好于预期,尽管增速比上月有所放缓,这表明美联储可能会等待更长 时间再降息。该因素也是上周五金价下跌的原因之一。美元一直受到特朗普总统的关税政策和与包括中国在内的贸易伙伴谈判前景的不确定性、美国参议院 在众议院通过赤字支出和税收法案后正在审议的法案以及近期经济数据轨迹的拖累。在包括就业数据在内的经济数据强于预期之后,市场开始扭转对美元的 一些空头仓位。 美国劳工部的数据显示,5月份雇主增加了13.9万个工作岗位,少于4月份的14.7万个,但超过了对经济学家进行的调查所预 ...
美媒爆猛料:五角大楼曾秘密煽动传播“UFO阴谋论”,从而为机密武器计划打掩护
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-06-09 05:11
【环球网报道】据美国《华尔街日报》6月7日爆料,五角大楼调查小组在调查关于UFO(不明飞行物)的阴谋论时发现了一个令人震惊的真相:其中有至少 一个阴谋论是由五角大楼自己煽动传播的。 《华尔街日报》称,这篇报道是基于对参与调查的24名现任和前任美国官员、科学家和军事承包商的采访,以及数千页文件、录音、电子邮件和短信。 《华尔街日报》称,数十年来,有意见认为,华盛顿掩盖了关于外星生命的知识,美国国防部2024年发布的报告则指认这种指控美国政府掩盖的说法毫无根 据。然而事实上,《华尔街日报》的调查显示,这份报告的发布本身就是一种掩盖行为,但并非如"UFO阴谋论者"所说的那样。公开披露的内容没有写入一 些关于UFO传言的背后真相,即五角大楼有时会故意煽风点火,这相当于美国政府运用虚假信息针对本国公民。 该媒体称其调查发现,五角大楼在2024年报告的公开版本中省略了关键事实,这些事实本可以帮助平息一些UFO传言,既是为了保护机密信息,也是为了避 免尴尬。美国空军尤其坚持省略一些细节,因为他们认为这些细节可能会危及美军的秘密计划,或损害一些军人的职业生涯。 "但这名军官的任务就是传播虚假信息"。报道继续称,这名目前已退休 ...
俄罗斯大学挂科,要被送上战场?
Hu Xiu· 2025-06-06 14:04
Core Viewpoint - The Russian government is reportedly considering a controversial plan to recruit students who fail their courses into military service, raising concerns about the implications for education and military recruitment in the country [1][5][30]. Group 1: Recruitment Plan - Students at Ural Federal University are facing a choice between expulsion or signing a military contract to participate in the "special military operation" [1][2]. - This initiative is not limited to Ural Federal University; universities across Sverdlovsk Oblast have received similar communications from the regional education department [2]. - The plan appears to be a local government initiative rather than a formal policy, as it is not mandatory for students [5][6]. Group 2: Public Reaction and Implications - The proposal has sparked outrage among students and the public, with some media outlets labeling it a "scandal" [6][12]. - The Ural Federal University has expressed dissatisfaction with the plan, emphasizing its role in training skilled professionals for the economy rather than military recruitment [13][14]. - The effectiveness of this recruitment strategy is questionable, as many students facing expulsion may not value their degrees highly enough to risk their lives for them [14][21]. Group 3: Military Recruitment Context - The Russian military is reportedly struggling with recruitment, relying increasingly on rural populations and those in poverty to fill its ranks [22][24]. - The average monthly salary for contract soldiers is over 200,000 rubles (approximately 20,000 RMB), with additional one-time compensation for volunteers [25]. - The government faces significant financial burdens due to military expenditures, which amount to approximately 11 trillion rubles annually [29]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Previous military mobilizations have caused widespread fear and uncertainty among the population, with students often seeking higher education as a means to avoid conscription [32][36]. - If the current trend of military recruitment continues, students who fail their courses may become direct targets for future mobilizations [34][38].
最后通牒!美国逼各国交出“关税方案”,否则美国经济就要崩盘
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-04 17:25
Group 1 - The U.S. government is pushing for a "reciprocal tariff" policy, with a 90-day grace period ending soon, demanding trade partners submit proposals by June 4 or face punitive measures [1][3] - The urgency for tariff proposals stems from the U.S. facing significant debt pressure, with national debt exceeding $36 trillion, leading to attempts to increase fiscal revenue through tariffs [3][11] - Countries like China have shown a firm stance against U.S. tariff pressures, emphasizing the importance of equality and mutual benefit in international trade [5][15] Group 2 - Japan, having previously suffered from U.S. tariffs in the 1980s, is adopting a guerrilla strategy and has not easily compromised under U.S. pressure [7] - European nations and ASEAN countries are also resisting U.S. tariff demands, focusing on their own economic strategies and regional stability [7][15] - The U.S. is experiencing a sense of urgency as its key industries, such as automotive and aerospace, are heavily reliant on Chinese rare earth materials, which are crucial for their operations [11][15] Group 3 - The U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy is characterized as a self-centered unilateral action that may protect some domestic industries but could lead to higher consumer prices and provoke retaliatory measures from other countries [13][15] - The political implications of U.S. tariff policies have drawn international discontent, undermining the principles of the World Trade Organization and potentially isolating the U.S. on the global stage [13][15] - The global economic landscape is shifting towards multipolarity, with emerging economies like China, Europe, and Japan gaining more influence, challenging U.S. economic hegemony [15][17] Group 4 - If the U.S. continues its unilateral and protectionist trade policies, its economic challenges may worsen, while other countries collaborate to promote a fairer global economy [17] - The U.S. must recognize that cooperation and mutual benefit are essential in a globalized world, rather than relying on tariffs to resolve issues [17]
特朗普迎来噩耗,美国本土或遭致命打击,五角大楼开始急了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-02 11:41
Group 1 - The current geopolitical situation indicates that the U.S. is facing significant threats, including potential attacks on its homeland, driven by global unrest and anti-American sentiments [1][2][4] - The Sahel region in Africa has emerged as a center for extremist activities, posing a growing threat to U.S. security, with groups potentially capable of launching attacks on U.S. soil [2][4] - The resurgence of ISIS in Syria highlights the ongoing challenges the U.S. faces in combating extremist organizations, which view the U.S. as a target for retaliation [6][8] Group 2 - Russia and Iran are identified as two nations with the capability to threaten the U.S., with Russia possessing a significant nuclear arsenal and Iran having advanced missile technology [8] - The U.S. is increasingly aware of the risks posed by these nations, particularly in light of their willingness to retaliate against perceived American aggression [8] - The article suggests that the era of U.S. dominance in global affairs is waning, with other nations unwilling to support U.S. interests, indicating a shift in the geopolitical landscape [8]
香格里拉对话|印巴代表团“刻意避开彼此”,隔空喊话
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-06-01 11:47
5月30日至6月1日,第22届香格里拉对话会在新加坡举行,来自40多个国家和地区的550余名国防与安全 机构代表出席对话会。 印度国防参谋长阿尼尔·乔汉、巴基斯坦参谋长联席会议主席萨希尔·沙姆沙德·米尔扎分别率领印、巴代 表团参会。"在香格里拉大酒店宽敞的走廊和会议厅内,双方刻意避开彼此。"路透社如此写道。 新加坡《联合早报》报道称,"主办方巧妙地把印、巴代表错开,安排他们在同一个时段,但不同场次 的特别会议上发言。" 就在香会开幕第一天,米尔扎5月30日在接受路透社采访时也表示,双方军队已开始减少兵力部署。"我 们几乎已经回到了4月22日前的局势……我们正在接近那个水平,或者现在已经接近了。" 在香会期间,印度军方首次证实在5月印巴冲突中有战机损失,引发外界高度关注。乔汉5月31日表示, 巴基斯坦声称击落6架印度战斗机的说法完全不正确,但他拒绝透露印度究竟损失了多少架战斗机。 "重要的不是战斗机被击落,而是它们为什么会被击落……这才重要,数量不重要。"乔汉表示,"值得 庆幸的是,我们能够认识到我们在战术上犯下的错误,并加以纠正、修复,然后在两天后重新实施攻 击,再次出动所有战斗机进行远程打击。" 谈及"朱砂 ...