Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the ongoing price war in the instant delivery sector, which is squeezing profit margins across the industry, prompting players to actively respond [2] - SF Express's stock has risen over 30% since May 8, with a peak increase of over 41%, positioning it as a leader in the instant delivery sector amid a reassessment of the value of third-party delivery platforms [2] - The competition in the instant retail market reveals that platforms' own delivery capabilities cannot meet the diverse and time-sensitive delivery demands, creating opportunities for third-party platforms like SF Express [2] Group 2 - The market's revaluation of third-party instant delivery services is reflected in SF Express's recent stock performance, driven by significant trends in local life market traffic polarization and high fulfillment demands across multiple scenarios [3] - According to Questmobile data, the average daily usage of SF Express's rider app increased by 40% year-on-year in April, indicating a positive outlook for demand in the instant delivery industry [3] - Analysts have raised revenue forecasts for SF Express for 2025 and 2026, maintaining a "outperforming the industry" rating with a target price of HKD 13.50, suggesting a 26% upside potential from the current price [3]

Company Updates - The company announced that during the "May Day" period, the total business volume for SF Same City increased by 87% year-on-year, with supermarket and department store volume up by 177%, beverage volume up by 106%, and last-mile delivery volume up by 102% [1] - According to Questmobile data, the average daily usage of the rider app in April increased by 40% year-on-year, indicating strong demand in the instant delivery sector [1] Industry Commentary - The growth in the takeaway industry is driving demand for last-mile delivery, suggesting that the company's same-city delivery B2B business volume may exceed previous expectations [1] - Questmobile data shows that the average daily usage of KFC and McDonald's increased by 31% and 30% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a positive trend in the takeaway sector [1] - The company is expected to benefit from its refined operational capabilities and flexible logistics network, leading to increased order volumes from key accounts (KA) [1] - The company anticipates that its revenue from merchants will exceed 24% by 2025, with KA business growth expected to be even higher [1] - The company's B2C business is expected to grow steadily alongside macroeconomic demand, supported by synergies with its express delivery services [1] Last-Mile Delivery Insights - The last-mile delivery business is projected to continue contributing revenue beyond expectations due to increased demand from e-commerce returns and the delivery of national subsidy products [2] - The integration of the company's logistics network with its parent company's express network is expected to enhance penetration rates and collaborative effects, further boosting profitability [2] - The company anticipates that its last-mile delivery volume will contribute significantly to revenue growth [2] Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The company has raised its revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 4.7% and 5.5%, respectively, to 20.343 billion and 25.711 billion [2] - Despite uncertainties in pricing trends within the takeaway industry, the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged at 250 million and 406 million [2] - The company maintains an outperform rating and a target price of HKD 13.50, which corresponds to 0.6x and 0.4x P/S for 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating a 26% upside potential from the current price [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market is witnessing a shift in perception towards third-party instant delivery platforms, with SF Express (顺丰同城) emerging as a key beneficiary amidst the competitive landscape of food delivery giants like JD, Meituan, and Alibaba [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The ongoing battle for the instant retail market, initially focused on food delivery, has revealed two main issues: the inability of self-owned logistics from platforms to meet diverse delivery demands and the need for merchants to avoid being tied to a single delivery platform [2] - SF Express, as a neutral third-party delivery platform, is positioned to capitalize on these challenges by providing services across multiple platforms, thus enhancing operational efficiency for merchants [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The market for neutral logistics has been disrupted in 2024, with Dada Group being privatized by JD and Flash Delivery facing significant losses, highlighting the scarcity of leading third-party players [3] - In contrast, SF Express has demonstrated strong and sustained profitability, with a 27% year-on-year revenue increase to 15.7 billion yuan and a doubling of net profit, solidifying its position as the only consistently profitable player in the sector [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The stock performance of SF Express reflects a market re-evaluation of the value of third-party instant delivery services, driven by the increasing demand for multi-scenario fulfillment and the company's strong brand presence [3] - Analysts predict continued growth for SF Express, with expectations of increased revenue in 2025 and 2026, supported by a 40% year-on-year increase in daily usage of its rider platform [4]

即时配送也正成为本地化商超、茶饮、零售、餐食的竞争"硬件"，记者了解到，瑞幸咖啡、霸王茶姬、 山姆会员商店、海底捞外送等品牌及各大商圈商场均与即时配送建立了深度合作，平台甚至会根据消费 特点量身打造精细化配送方案。另外线上消费也开始往即时配送延展，比如此前母亲节多个即时零售平 台就上线鲜花专区活动，像抖音平台就推出"鲜花小时达"60元券包刺激消费，商家亦借机加速布局全渠 道销售，结合抖音"小时达"、微信私域以及小红书种草等，覆盖多元消费群体。南京一位顺丰小哥告诉 记者，即时配送对配送方式很有讲究，比如对于鲜花、蛋糕等比较娇嫩的易损品，专业骑士不但需要轻 拿稳放、匀速行驶，还需要根据需求进行喷壶补水及蛋糕保温等，守护鲜花蛋糕的"颜值"和鲜度。 业内专家认为，随着520、618等消费节点陆续到来，即时配送将持续发挥连接商家与消费者的纽带作 用，为消费市场注入新活力。 "即时消费"观念下，刚刚过去的母亲节礼赠场景持续拓宽，"万物皆可送"趋势明显。近期淘宝、京东等 平台加入"外卖大战"，淘宝"小时达"升级为"闪购"，并联合饿了么推出"超百亿补贴"，进一步带动"外 卖"过节热潮，为第三方即配带来增长机遇。顺丰同城最新数 ...

与此同时，即配服务成为文旅产业"比拼"新焦点。针对游客行李存取难题，顺丰同城在杭州、三亚落地"轻松游"项目，实 现交通枢纽、酒店、景区、商圈全域覆盖。游客可一键下单委托骑士直送行李至指定点位，依托"商圈+全城"弹性运力网 络与"四轮+二轮"多元运力组合，保障1-3小时精准送达。 【环球网财经综合报道】"五一"假期将至，旅游市场热度空前。旅行平台报告显示，今年假期旅游消费呈现长线游爆 发、跨境游升温、县域游崛起态势。在"请4休11"拼假策略推动下，跨市住宿订单占比超80%，县域高星酒店消费反超高 线城市，入境游订单同比大增173%，预计假期旅行热度将创2023年以来"五一"峰值。 各地文旅部门积极"备战"，密集出台惠民政策。四川发放6811.5万元文旅消费券，济南推出"旅游列车+景区"联动优惠， 降低游客出行成本，激发消费活力。 "汉服代还+即时物流"模式，为游客和商家带来便利。有店家表示，使用代还服务的顾客已达五成且持续增长。平台还打 造"文旅骑士"队伍，为游客提供文化讲解、交通指引等服务。 旅行中行李管理难题影响出游体验。以杭州东站为例，不少游客拖着行李去西湖景区游玩，既耗体力又影响心情。现有 寄存方案存在 ...

Core Insights - The instant delivery industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with order volume reaching 42 billion in 2023 and expected to exceed 48 billion in 2024, moving towards a trillion-level market [1] - The growth is driven by a combination of diversified traffic channels, integration with instant retail, expansion of food supply, digitalization in lower-tier markets, and the application of new technologies like AI and drones [1][2] - SF Express is leading the industry by connecting upstream traffic and demand through a unique independent third-party position, enhancing service models, and advancing AI and unmanned delivery technologies [1][4] Industry Trends - The instant delivery sector is projected to continue its rapid expansion, with significant contributions from AI and unmanned technologies that enhance operational efficiency and service quality [2][4] - The integration of green and sustainable practices is becoming a core part of the operational framework, with SF Express adopting electric vehicles and AI-driven logistics systems to reduce carbon emissions [2][5] Company Initiatives - SF Express has successfully implemented unmanned vehicle delivery across multiple regions, achieving over a thousand active routes monthly, significantly improving delivery efficiency [4] - The company has reported a 98% usage of green transportation methods in its delivery operations, saving 2.42 million tons of carbon emissions [5] - SF Express is committed to social responsibility, with a focus on creating a supportive ecosystem for its delivery personnel, including safety training and welfare initiatives [6][7] Future Outlook - SF Express aims to maintain its position as an independent third-party instant delivery service, leveraging its full-service network and exploring new models empowered by AI and unmanned technologies [8] - The company is focused on building a collaborative ecosystem that benefits consumers, merchants, and society, contributing to high-quality development in the instant delivery industry [8]

Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - High-growth companies in ride-hailing, digital freight, and instant delivery platforms are expected to deliver significant returns, with business volume and revenue growth around 20% and operating profits increasing substantially [3][4] - As competition stabilizes, operating leverage will lead to greater growth in operating profits, with companies like Manbang Group and Meituan projected to see substantial profit increases in 2024 [4][5] - The rising penetration rates in ride-hailing, digital freight, and instant delivery are expected to drive revenue and gross profit growth of approximately 30% for leading companies in 2024 [5] Summary by Sections Growth Logic - Revenue growth and declining expense ratios are key drivers for profit growth, with companies like Manbang Group benefiting from rapid revenue increases and improved monetization rates [14][17] - The report highlights that the faster the revenue growth and the quicker the expense ratio declines, the more significant the profit growth potential [16] High Growth in Leading Companies - In 2024, leading companies in ride-hailing, freight platforms, and instant delivery are expected to see high growth in operating profits, with Didi Chuxing turning profitable [19][23] - The operating profit growth rates for these companies are significantly higher than their gross profit growth rates, indicating effective cost management [23] Operating Leverage - The report notes that the increase in operating profit growth is due to a decrease in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios, showcasing the effect of operating leverage [28][31] - As leading companies solidify their market positions, their expense ratios are expected to stabilize, further enhancing profit margins [28][46] Revenue and Market Penetration - The revenue growth for leading companies is primarily driven by increases in business volume, with many companies outpacing industry growth rates [39][41] - The rising market penetration rates in various segments, such as ride-hailing and digital freight, are contributing to revenue growth exceeding overall market growth [44] Monetization Rates - Manbang Group's monetization rate is on the rise, which is expected to accelerate revenue growth compared to competitors whose monetization rates are stabilizing [49]

作者：长桥社区@ 戴某DEMO 海豚君经授权发布。 继上篇《 十问十答：刘强东送外卖！京东葫芦里到底卖的什么药？ 》之后，本篇重点通过外卖市场的乱斗复盘、美团和京东的优劣势来深入分析京东这场迟到 的外卖大战。 先上核心判断： 在一个已经发展了 10 多年，增速即将进入个位数区间的存量业务中， 想要占住足够业务盈亏平衡的市场份额「30%的饿了么并未实现盈利」，需要具备许多必 要条件： 1. 数倍于展业红利期的投入； 2. 精准锐利的通过资源投入和得当的运营协作占据业务链条上的「关键竞争资源」； 3. 维持交付链、履约条上各个角色的稳态，将这种局部的竞争优势维持一段时间； 最终才有可能形成差异化的心智和供给，并建立同业效率差； 第一点，在投入这个数字我没具体核算，但饿了么当年在用户心智还未完全确立行业还能相对高速增长的竞争窗口期，真金白银投入了 30 亿补贴，并未对份额 有太大影响。 第二点，是需要创始人级别的一号位owner，对业务十分理解，并能找到差异化竞争的路径，长时间持续的投入； 因为在战略、路径、方法、节奏上都没有什么犯错的空间，空降的职业经理人很难胜任这个角色， 且可能出于 向上 管理的需要，还会增加 ...

证券研究报告 2025年04月27日 行业报告 | 行业专题研究 分析师 陈金海 SAC执业证书编号：S1110521060001 联系人 李宁 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 维持 （ 评级） 交通运输 摘要 交运平台高增长，进入利润兑现期 ⚫ 估值相对低位，发掘成长公司 作者： ⚫ 经营杠杆，利润进入兑现期 随着竞争格局稳定，销售、管理、研发费用维持稳定，毛利润增长有望带动营业利润更大 幅度增长。2024年满帮集团、美团、顺丰同城的营业利润成倍增长，未来或持续较快增长。 ⚫ 渗透率上升，毛利持续增长 网约车、网络货运、即时配送的渗透率上升，带动满帮集团、美团、顺丰同城等公司2024 年营收和毛利润30%左右增长。满帮集团的变现率上升，2024年毛利润增速42%。 风险提示：公路运价下跌风险，市场竞争加剧风险，监管要求降低佣金率风险 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 2 1.1 聚焦交运高成长板块 高成长公司带来高回报机会。新兴的网约车、数字货运、即时配送等平台头部公司，业务 量和收入增速20%左右，营业利润成倍增长。随着新能源汽车普及、智能驾驶 ...

小红书宣布取消员工大小周、竞业 董明珠连任董事长，张伟接棒格力电器总裁 4月22日晚，格力电器宣布新一届董事会换届结果，董明珠等董事候选人全部在当天的公司临时股东大 会上当选，董明珠连任公司董事长，张伟接替董明珠任公司总裁。格力电器年轻化的管理团队走上前 台。 点评：董明珠继续担任格力电器董事长，可保持管理层稳定，并使公司的战略和经营具有一定持续性； 总裁职位由张伟接任，为格力电器今后管理层梯队发展做好人力方面的准备。外界认为，董明珠没有完 全"放手"，本次格力电器董事会换届，专业化的力量也加强了，原格力电器副总裁舒立志、格力电器总 工程师钟成堡成为新晋的非独立董事。无论如何，格力电器交接班向前迈出了一步，走稳需新老团队的 合作与智慧。 京东美团因"二选一"争执 4月21日，京东发文表示，有竞对平台再次玩起"二选一"游戏，强迫骑手不能接京东平台的秒送订单， 否则封杀。同时，为应对部分外卖订单延迟的问题，京东宣布4月21日起，所有超时20分钟以上的外卖 订单，京东全部免单。当天晚间，美团发布辟谣声明，称没有任何理由对某平台进行任何限制。 点评：这场交锋，将即时配送行业的运力争夺战推向台前。随着京东外卖以百亿补贴 ...