基于显著优于预期的上半年营收成长速度，第3季度环比加速提升的即时配送业务需求，交银国际调顺 丰同城2025-2027年收入14%/12%/12%，至220-304亿元人民币，年增40%/20%/15%，同时受到公司单量 密度提升、优质的骑手部管理能力，AI加持下，营运费率的持续优化，该行上调2025-2027年利润预测 26%/23%/27%，至3.4-7.6亿元人民币，Non-IFRS净利润率分别1.5%/2%/2.6%。 智通财经APP获悉，交银国际发布研报称，上调顺丰同城(09699)目标价至15.4港元,维持"买入"评级。该 行认为顺丰同城仍是外送补贴战的受益方之一，未来补贴回归理性，业务空间仍大，考虑到长期其与顺 丰的业务协同持续加深，无人车配送规模化落地持续降低成本。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the target price for SF Express (09699) has been raised to HKD 15.4, maintaining a "Buy" rating due to its position as a beneficiary in the delivery subsidy war [1] - The report highlights that as subsidies return to rationality, there remains significant business potential for SF Express, supported by deepening business synergies with SF Holdings and the ongoing cost reduction from the scaling of autonomous vehicle deliveries [1] - Based on a significantly better-than-expected revenue growth in the first half of the year, the demand for instant delivery services is expected to accelerate in the third quarter [1] Group 2 - Revenue forecasts for SF Express have been adjusted for 2025-2027, with expected growth rates of 14%/12%/12%, leading to revenues of RMB 22-30.4 billion, representing annual increases of 40%/20%/15% [1] - Profit forecasts for the same period have been raised by 26%/23%/27%, resulting in projected profits of RMB 340 million to 760 million, with Non-IFRS net profit margins of 1.5%/2%/2.6% [1] - The improvements in operational efficiency are attributed to increased order density, effective management of quality riders, and continuous optimization of operating costs aided by AI [1]

Group 1: MOMO US - The operating profit exceeded expectations, with overseas new products maintaining strong growth momentum [1] - Revenue for Q2 2025 was 2.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3%, while adjusted operating profit was 450 million yuan, surpassing the expected 390 million yuan due to better-than-expected cost control and marketing channel optimization [1] - Overseas revenue continued to expand, increasing by 73% year-on-year, accounting for 17% of total revenue [1] Group 2: Future Outlook for MOMO US - Revenue for Q3 2025 is expected to decline by 2% year-on-year, with the impact of stricter compliance on streamer taxes leading to potential increases in revenue-sharing incentives [2] - Overseas revenue is projected to grow by 62% year-on-year, with products like Amar and Yaahlan expected to maintain strong growth [2] - Adjustments to net profit expectations for 2025/26 have been made due to potential new product marketing investments and changes in dividend withholding tax rates [2] Group 3: SF Express (9699 HK) - The company is experiencing continuous profit release under diversified layouts, with a buy rating maintained [3] - Revenue growth for 2025-27 has been revised upward by 14%/12%/12% to 22 billion - 30.4 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 40%/20%/15% [3] - Profit forecasts for 2025-27 have been increased by 26%/23%/27% to 340 million - 760 million yuan, with Non-IFRS net profit margins of 1.5%/2%/2.6% [3] Group 4: Future Outlook for SF Express - SF Express is expected to benefit from a rational return of subsidies in the takeaway market, with significant business space remaining [4] - The target price has been adjusted to 15.4 HKD based on a rolling valuation to 2026, corresponding to 0.5 times the sales ratio [4] Group 5: Consumer Industry Overview - The consumer market in mainland China showed moderate recovery in the first half of 2025, with structural differentiation in performance across segments [8] - Key trends include the leading performance of experiential consumption, revenue growth from global expansion strategies, and operational efficiency becoming a critical factor for profit differentiation [8][9] - Recommendations include focusing on players capturing consumer trends with high growth potential, such as Pop Mart (9992 HK), and industry leaders with stable fundamentals like Midea (000333 CH), Anta (2020 HK), and Yili (600887 CH) [8] Group 6: Automotive Industry Overview - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 55.2% in August, with retail sales of passenger cars hitting a historical high of 1.995 million units [12] - The export of passenger cars, including new energy vehicles, maintained good growth momentum, with 204,000 new energy vehicles exported in August, accounting for 40.9% of total exports [13] - The upcoming launch of multiple new models in Q3-Q4 2025 is expected to enrich market supply and boost sales during the traditional peak season [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The company, SF Tongcheng, is a leading third-party delivery platform in China, leveraging its advantages to meet the growing demand for instant delivery services across various new consumption scenarios [1] Group 1: Company Overview - SF Tongcheng operates an open and flexible instant delivery network, providing services for businesses and individuals, with revenue contributions in 2024 expected to be 42% from merchant delivery, 15% from personal errands, and 42% from express collection and delivery services [1] - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its ToB (business-to-business) orders, with a projected 28.1% year-on-year revenue increase from merchant delivery services in 2024 [1] - Collaboration with the group's express delivery business is enhancing operational efficiency, leading to a 32.5% year-on-year revenue growth in express collection and delivery services in 2024 [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - Instant retail is emerging as a new online retail ecosystem that meets the demand for "instant consumption" and "hourly delivery," driven by changes in consumer behavior towards more frequent, smaller purchases [1] - The industry is witnessing significant growth as e-commerce platforms and local service providers actively invest in instant retail to capture market opportunities, with the potential for cross-selling and increased platform traffic [1] - The ongoing optimization of supply chain efficiency is expected to expand the range of products available for instant retail, indicating a broad market space in the medium term [1] Group 3: Delivery Infrastructure - Instant delivery serves as the foundational infrastructure for instant retail, relying on a positive cycle of order volume, rider availability, and fulfillment efficiency [2] - The company differentiates itself by maintaining a neutral position as the largest third-party delivery platform, ensuring high-quality service and customized solutions for various industries [2] - The operational model of rider management is crucial, with SF Tongcheng employing a "quasi-direct" management approach to ensure service quality, contrasting with the franchise model used by some competitors [2] Group 4: Financial Projections - The company's net profit is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 310 million, 600 million, and 900 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, reflecting a PE ratio of 38.9, 19.8, and 13.2 [3]

Group 1: AI Video Generation Industry - Aishi Technology has completed a Series B financing round totaling over $60 million, led by Alibaba, with participation from various investment institutions [1][3] - The company has surpassed 100 million global users, and its self-developed video generation model, PixVerse V5, ranks first in the Artificial Analysis video evaluation [1][3] - The platform has extended its free user event until September 12, allowing domestic users to use the PixVerse Agent for dynamic content creation at no cost [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Challenges - The financing highlights the strategic importance of AI video technology in the capital market, indicating a surge in public creative demand [3] - Despite the growth, the industry faces challenges such as stability in generation quality, content controllability, and ethical risks [3] - Aishi Technology is encouraged to leverage this financing to accelerate algorithm optimization, build a developer ecosystem, and establish a compliance governance system [3] Group 3: Instant Delivery Sector - Ele.me has initiated a new measure for rider rights protection by signing the "2025 Annual Platform Algorithm and Labor Rules Agreement" with rider representatives [4] - The agreement aims to gradually eliminate the penalty for late deliveries and shift towards a positive incentive mechanism, enhancing rider health through upgraded fatigue prevention systems [4] Group 4: Smart Home Cleaning Market - IDC's latest report indicates that the global robotic vacuum market is undergoing significant changes, with Chinese brand Yunzhihui entering the top five globally for the first time [4] - Yunzhihui achieved a shipment volume of 524,200 units, capturing an 8.5% market share, surpassing established US brand iRobot [4] - The brand's rapid expansion is attributed to its focus on emerging markets and differentiated market strategies [4]

这场外卖大战打下来，顺丰同城上半年总营收冲到了102.4亿，猛增49%，净利润更是涨了120%。 最近，美团、京东、阿里外卖三国杀，胜负未分，但美团净利润低了89%，京东净利润下滑了50%，阿 里净利润下降了18%，三大巨头总共少赚了200亿。 那么，烧了那么多钱，到底谁赢了呢？ 首先，肯定是消费者，点个外卖便宜10块钱，点杯奶茶立减5元，很多网友疯狂薅羊毛差点都喝出了糖 尿病。 可你以为只是消费者在狂欢吗？ 隐形玩家其实另有他人，不是点外卖的你我，不是收佣金的平台，而是背后那个接单接到手软的蜜雪冰 城和瑞幸。说白了就是大牌餐饮店，还有跑腿送餐的外卖小哥，背后则是第三方运力。因为外卖补贴战 打的越凶，订单量就爆的越猛，而这些海量订单总得有人做，总得有人送，尤其是补贴剧烈的那波奶茶 订单，不仅让蜜雪冰城、古茗的财报营利双收，还带动他们全渠道配送的顺丰同城茶饮配送收入直接翻 倍。 在杭州某肯德基门店，同一时间段内美团、京东、饿了么三平台订单，很可能都由同一位顺丰骑手完成 配送。 这种"不站队"的灵活性，使其成为各平台运力不足时的关键"补给站"。 但你以为外卖平台真的只是赔本赚吆喝？ 根据上周五阿里电话会对外卖大战 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [11][13]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leading third-party instant delivery platform in China, benefiting from the rapid growth of instant retail and the increasing demand for delivery services [4][11]. - The company's unique market positioning and service model have created a scarcity barrier in delivery capacity, which is expected to drive profitability as order volumes and rider efficiency improve [4][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Shunfeng Tongcheng, is the largest third-party instant delivery platform in China, providing a flexible delivery network for various consumer needs [8][18]. - The main business segments include delivery services for merchants (42% of revenue), personal errands (15%), and express collection and delivery services (42%) [8][18]. Instant Retail Growth - Instant retail is experiencing explosive growth, driven by a shift in consumer behavior towards convenience and immediate consumption [9][39]. - The market is expected to expand significantly, with projections indicating that the instant retail market could exceed 700 billion yuan by 2025 [52]. Delivery Infrastructure - Instant delivery serves as the foundational infrastructure for instant retail, with a focus on building a robust rider network to meet increasing order volumes [10][74]. - The company employs a "quasi-direct" management model for riders, ensuring high service quality and operational efficiency [10][74]. Financial Performance - The company achieved its first annual profit in 2023, with net profit expected to double to 1.3 billion yuan in 2024 [11][35]. - Revenue growth is driven by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.4% from 2021 to 2024, with significant contributions from all business segments [35][36]. Market Positioning - The company maintains a neutral market position, allowing it to serve a wide range of clients without favoring specific channels [11][18]. - Strong collaboration with the parent company, Shunfeng Group, enhances operational efficiency and cost reduction in last-mile delivery [11][18].

Group 1: SF Express (顺丰同城) - The company has shown significantly better-than-expected revenue growth in the first half of the year, leading to an upward revision of revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 by 14%/12%/12%, reaching 22 billion to 30.4 billion HKD, with year-on-year growth rates of 40%/20%/15% [1] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been increased by 26%/23%/27%, resulting in projected profits of 340 million to 760 million HKD, with Non-IFRS net profit margins of 1.5%/2%/2.6% [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the rationalization of delivery subsidies and the continued deepening of business synergies with SF Express, alongside the cost reduction from the scaling of autonomous vehicle deliveries [2] Group 2: Automotive Industry - In August, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 55.2%, marking a new high for the year, with retail sales of passenger cars at 1.995 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [3] - Domestic brands sold 1.32 million vehicles, with a retail market share increase of 2.3 percentage points to 65.7%, while mainstream joint venture brands saw a retail sales decline of 2% [3] - The export of new energy passenger vehicles maintained strong growth, with a total of 204,000 units exported in August, accounting for 40.9% of total passenger vehicle exports, a year-on-year increase of 16.6 percentage points [4]

Core Insights - The article highlights the competitive landscape of the food delivery and instant retail market, emphasizing the ongoing subsidy wars among major players like Meituan, Alibaba, and JD, which indicates a strong commitment to maintaining market positions [1][8] - SF Express's subsidiary, SF City, reported significant growth in its mid-2025 financial results, showcasing a revenue increase of 49% year-on-year, reaching 10.24 billion yuan [1][3] - The report indicates that SF City has successfully expanded its active merchant and rider base, with 850,000 active merchants and 1.14 million active riders by mid-2023, alongside a 50% increase in delivery order volume [5][7] Financial Performance - SF City achieved a gross profit of 680 million yuan, a 44% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 6.7% [3] - The net profit surged to 140 million yuan, marking a 120% year-on-year growth, with an adjusted net profit of 160 million yuan, reflecting a 139% increase [3] Market Dynamics - The article discusses the increasing reliance on third-party delivery platforms like SF City, which are becoming essential infrastructure in the instant retail market, akin to utilities [18][23] - It notes that the competition in the food delivery sector has catalyzed growth for third-party logistics providers, which are now seen as critical to supporting various platforms and merchants [8][10] Strategic Positioning - SF City maintains a neutral stance, collaborating with a wide range of clients without being tied to any specific platform, which enhances its strategic advantages in the competitive landscape [7][10] - The company has focused on improving rider compensation and support, resulting in a 65% increase in high-income riders and a 107% increase in riders earning over 10,000 yuan per month [7][12] Industry Trends - The article emphasizes the shift towards diversified logistics solutions, with merchants increasingly seeking to reduce dependency on single platforms due to high fees and restrictions [10][11] - It highlights the growing demand for specialized third-party delivery services across various sectors beyond food, including groceries, pharmaceuticals, and electronics, which require tailored logistics solutions [11][12] Future Outlook - The instant delivery market is projected to continue expanding, with estimates suggesting that the volume of instant delivery orders may surpass that of e-commerce orders in the future [27] - The article concludes that the third-party delivery sector holds significant potential for growth, with opportunities for new players to emerge and contribute to the industry's evolution [27]

（2）从收入结构看：2025 上半年公司同城配送收入57.8 亿，同比增长43.1%，占总收入比例为56.5%， 其中同城非餐场景收入21.4 亿，同增28.6%，占同城配送收入比例下降4.1pc t 至37.1%。 风险分析 顺丰同城发布2025 上半年业绩公告 2025 上半年收入102.4 亿元人民币，同比增长48.8%，毛利同比增加43.8%至约6.8 亿元；毛利率略有回 调，维持6.7%水平。上半年净利润约1.37 亿元，同比增长171%；净利率较2024 年的0.8%提升至1.3%; 经调整净利润约1.6 亿。上半年经营活动现金流入为约1.8 亿元，同比大幅增长86%。 点评 1、收入：公司依靠同城配送及最后一公里双轮驱动，上半年总收入实现48.8%的较高增速，连续4 个半 年增速提升，其中KA客户的服务品质和渗透不断提升 （1）2025 上半年公司总收入为102.4 亿，同比增长48.8%，外部客户收入占比54.5%，同比下降4 个百 分点。 机构：中信建投证券 研究员：韩军/梁骁 核心观点 顺丰同城2025 上半年业绩：依靠同城配送及最后一公里双轮驱动，上半年总收入实现48.8%的较高增 速， ...