市公司 品研发 公司书 2026 年 01 月 08 日 预计 Q4 收入高增,看好 26 年利润改善 报告原因:强调原有的投资评级 撸持(维持) | 市场数据: | 2026年01月07日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币) | 11.55 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9138.75 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 15.64/10.08 | | H 股市值 (亿港币) | 768.86 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 6,656.78 | | 汇率(港币/人民币) | 0.9013 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势: 王易 A0230525050001 wanqyi@swsresearch.com 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 联系人 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 证券分析师 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 研究支持 投资要点: 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 20 ...

（来源：唐山广播电视台） 品一品糖炒栗子的香甜 人民日报记者 史自强 北风一起，冬日街头总是弥漫着一股糖炒栗子的暖香。 很多人认为，糖炒栗子加糖主要是为了增加甜度。"确实有一部分糖溶化后渗透到栗子壳的缝隙里，但这并非加糖的主要目的。"河北唐山市食 品药品综合检验检测中心科技管理科科长王磊介绍，糖在高温加热的作用下，发生"焦糖化反应"，让栗子外壳呈现出油亮红润的色泽；糖在炒 制过程中产生的焦糖香气，与栗子本身的香味混合在一起，形成标志性的"糖炒栗子香"；此外，溶化的糖液在滚烫的石子与栗子壳之间，巧妙 形成一层极薄的保护膜，既能防止栗子在翻炒时过分粘连石子，也能让热量传导更温和，有效减少栗子被炒煳的风险。 想要更好品味糖炒栗子的香甜，还得练就一双"识栗慧眼"： 一看颜色。如果栗子外壳的颜色像被浓墨涂抹过，需要警惕是否被添加了石蜡油。二看形状。优先选择那些身材圆鼓鼓的栗子，它们通常内膛 充实，果肉丰厚。三看裂口。裂口适中的栗子，不仅熟得透，剥起来也轻松。 栗子内皮不好剥开，怎么办？两个小技巧轻松解决： 微波炉的"10秒桑拿"。短暂加热就能让果肉里的残余水分迅速汽化，将那层"赖着不走"的内皮与果肉分离。 热水"10秒 ...

Group 1 - The core achievement of GESON Technology in the 2025 Shenzhen Intelligent Robot Dexterous Hand Competition, winning the championship by setting a new limit for long-range delivery tasks, is supported by RoboSense's VLA model and advanced sensor systems [1][3][9] - The competition showcased the industry's leading capabilities in robot-eye coordination technology, emphasizing the commercial strength of creating industrial value through collaboration [3][9] - The event attracted 53 high-level teams from various regions, highlighting the significance of the competition in the context of the "robot mass production year" [9] Group 2 - RoboSense's recent video release demonstrated the robot's ability to perform complex tasks, indicating the integration of its core technologies aimed at flexible automation in delivery, manufacturing, and logistics [5][13] - The competition tested robots under real-world conditions, including human traffic and elevator sharing, emphasizing the challenges faced in the last 100 meters of delivery [11][13] - The success of GESON Technology illustrates the potential for RoboSense's AI robot technology to support autonomous completion of complex tasks, establishing a comprehensive technological barrier from foundational technology to application [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid expansion of "flash warehouses" in China has led to a saturated market, with many operators struggling to maintain profitability and facing high turnover rates [4][10][11]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Flash warehouses emerged to meet consumer demand for ultra-fast delivery, with major platforms like Meituan and Alibaba rapidly increasing their numbers [4][10]. - Meituan reported over 50,000 flash warehouses by Q2 2023, up from 30,000 in October 2022, indicating a growth rate of nearly 2,500 new warehouses per month [10]. - The average gross margin for flash warehouses has plummeted to around 10%, significantly lower than previous years, making profitability increasingly difficult [12]. Group 2: Operational Challenges - Many flash warehouse operators are caught in a "order-chasing" cycle, relying on low-priced fast-moving consumer goods to attract customers, which leads to losses [11][12]. - The operational model often results in a high turnover of warehouse owners, with some locations changing hands multiple times within a year due to unsustainable business practices [5][9]. - A significant number of flash warehouses are unable to achieve the necessary sales volume to remain viable, with many closing within months of opening [9][19]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the challenges, the market for flash warehouses is projected to grow, with Meituan aiming for over 100,000 warehouses by 2027 and a market size of 200 billion yuan [15]. - The recent surge in instant retail sales during events like the "Double 11" shopping festival, which saw a 138.4% year-on-year increase, provides some optimism for operators [15][16]. - Operators are exploring smaller warehouse models to reduce costs and improve profitability, indicating a shift in strategy within the industry [17][18].

Core Insights - The textbook "Artificial Intelligence in Instant Delivery" co-authored by Tsinghua University and Meituan has been officially published and included in the Ministry of Education's strategic emerging fields "14th Five-Year Plan" higher education series [1] - The textbook systematically outlines key methods and practical experiences of AI technology in instant delivery, covering areas such as delivery network planning, scheduling optimization, smart pricing, big data forecasting, digitalization, and algorithm engineering [1] Summary by Sections - **Textbook Development**: The textbook is a result of a graduate course on AI technology in instant delivery jointly launched by Tsinghua University and Meituan since 2022, emphasizing a field-oriented approach rather than a purely theoretical one [1] - **Course Focus**: The course addresses real-time scheduling of massive orders, dynamic responses to adverse weather and emergencies, global planning of delivery networks, challenges in big data forecasting, and the engineering issues of algorithm implementation [1] - **Educational Impact**: Since its inception, the course has trained hundreds of AI talents with both academic depth and practical skills, providing a comprehensive technical perspective from laboratory to production environment [1] - **Industry Relevance**: The published textbook serves as a systematic summary of the course content and offers reusable technical methodologies for students and industry technical researchers in AI, automation, and logistics [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, total revenue reached RMB 1 billion, with a gross margin of 11% and adjusted net profit of RMB 62.6 million, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase [4][15] - Non-GAAP net margin expanded to 6.2% from 5% in the same period last year, while shareholders' equity grew to RMB 839.3 million, up from RMB 747.1 million at the end of 2024 [15][16] - Cash and cash equivalents totaled RMB 877.9 million, indicating a healthy financial position [5][17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company adopted a refined tiered management approach for merchant customers, enhancing service quality and customer experience, which is expected to drive stable revenue growth [5][6] - Daily delivery volume for individual users grew by 15% from the previous quarter, driven by new service offerings [8][9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall order volume demonstrated strong resilience despite external market fluctuations, with an increase in average selling price (ASP) year-over-year [23] - The company is focusing on high-frequency merchant customers and expanding its reach among small and medium-sized businesses [7][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to enhance its unique on-demand dedicated courier model, focusing on service quality and user experience [4][10] - Strategic initiatives include expanding service categories, optimizing delivery efficiency, and deepening collaboration with enterprise clients [10][12] - The company is exploring new service opportunities and strengthening partnerships to enhance user experience and brand recognition [13][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the scaling back of subsidies in the food delivery industry is shifting competitive focus towards better service, which aligns with the company's value proposition [22] - The outlook for Q4 2025 and 2026 includes amplifying time efficiency advantages and increasing order frequency through collaborative management [24] Other Important Information - The company has repurchased approximately 1.6 million ADS as of November 18, 2025, demonstrating a commitment to enhancing shareholder value [16] - The company is implementing a citywide low-altitude logistic delivery solution, positioning itself as a leader in urban drone delivery systems [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Order volume and ASP trends in 2B and 2C segments - Management indicated that the scaling back of subsidies is fostering a more stable market environment, allowing the company to leverage its differentiated value proposition [22] Question: Outlook on future reduction in expense ratio - Management stated that the expense ratio has been gradually declining due to refined operations and enhanced efficiency, with expectations for further optimization in the future [25][27]

Core Viewpoint - JD.com aims to build a more resilient "super supply chain" during the APEC Business Leaders Summit, with significant investments planned in logistics technology [4][6]. Investment Plans - JD Logistics plans to purchase 3 million robots, 1 million unmanned vehicles, and 100,000 drones over the next five years, marking an unprecedented investment in China's logistics history [4][6]. - The estimated investment cost for these purchases is projected to be no less than 290 billion RMB [7][8]. Financial Considerations - As of mid-2025, JD Logistics has 17.317 billion RMB in cash, which is insufficient to cover the planned expenditures [8]. - JD Group, which holds a 63.31% stake in JD Logistics, has total cash and cash equivalents of 223.4 billion RMB, but even with annual cash flow growth, it may struggle to independently support this massive investment [8]. Technological Advancements - JD Logistics has significantly increased its R&D spending, with a cumulative investment exceeding 10 billion RMB from 2022 to 2024, surpassing competitors like SF Express [11]. - The company has developed various technological innovations, including AI models and autonomous delivery systems, which have improved operational efficiency [11][12]. Market Expansion - JD Logistics is expanding its global footprint with a "Global Network Plan," aiming to double its self-operated overseas warehouse space by mid-2025 [12][18]. - The company has also initiated a large-scale recruitment of full-time delivery personnel to enhance its last-mile delivery capabilities [12][14]. Strategic Shift - JD Group is transitioning from a traditional e-commerce model to a technology-driven supply chain infrastructure service provider, focusing on logistics as a core business [16][18]. - The company is also investing in instant delivery services and integrating them with its existing logistics network to enhance service quality [14][18]. Financial Performance - JD Logistics achieved profitability in 2023 after 11 years of losses, with a significant increase in adjusted net profit in 2024 [16]. - However, the company's profit growth has slowed in 2025 due to expansion costs, with a notable decline in operating cash flow [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce and other five departments have issued the "Urban Commercial Quality Improvement Action Plan," which includes 21 specific measures aimed at enhancing urban commercial environments to better meet the needs of citizens for a better life [1] Group 1: Specific Measures - The plan emphasizes the renovation of pedestrian streets and business circles, as well as the upgrade of business formats to diversify the supply of domestic and foreign products [1] - It promotes the integration of online and offline development, guiding commercial enterprises to collaborate with e-commerce companies through instant retail models [1] - The plan encourages e-commerce companies to partner with logistics firms to consolidate scattered demand orders, enhancing delivery efficiency through shared and centralized delivery systems [1] Group 2: Delivery Efficiency - The initiative aims to improve last-mile delivery efficiency and service quality by utilizing urban space for facilities such as front warehouses, smart lockers, and comprehensive delivery service stations [1] - It promotes the development of instant delivery and unmanned delivery services to enhance precise response capabilities [1]

Core Viewpoint - DoorDash is initiating a robot delivery revolution in the U.S., aiming to reshape the global instant delivery industry by integrating robotics into its core operations [1][3]. Group 1: Company Developments - In October 2025, DoorDash launched its self-developed delivery robot, Dot, and entered a strategic partnership with Serve Robotics to scale robot delivery services in Los Angeles, with plans for nationwide expansion [3]. - DoorDash, founded in 2013, is the largest food delivery platform in the U.S., holding a 60% market share and achieving a market valuation exceeding $60 billion [3][4]. - The introduction of the DashPass subscription service in 2022 has attracted over 15 million members, expanding its operations to over 4,000 cities across the U.S., Canada, Australia, and parts of Europe by 2025 [5]. Group 2: Market Context - The global food delivery robot market is projected to reach $299 million by 2024, indicating significant growth potential for DoorDash's robot delivery operations [5]. - The increasing costs in the food service industry are driving the need for automation, with robot delivery costs being one-third of human labor costs, and DoorDash's pilot programs showing a 40% reduction in average delivery costs [8][9]. Group 3: Technology and Efficiency - Dot is designed to deliver various everyday items, capable of carrying up to 16 kg and traveling at speeds of 32 km/h, ensuring food freshness [7]. - The integration of SmartScale technology has reduced human labor costs by 80% and decreased order complaint rates by 62% [9]. - Serve robots optimize delivery routes using AI algorithms, achieving an average delivery time of just 18 minutes [9]. Group 4: Challenges and Barriers - Despite the promising outlook, the widespread adoption of delivery robots faces challenges, including technical limitations in extreme weather and complex terrains [11][12]. - Regulatory hurdles vary significantly across regions, complicating cross-regional operations for companies like DoorDash [12]. - The initial investment for robots is substantial, with costs around $100,000 per unit, which may deter small businesses from adopting this technology [12]. Group 5: Future Prospects - The evolution of delivery robots is part of a broader digital transformation in logistics, with the global market for delivery robots expected to reach billions of dollars [20]. - In China, daily delivery demand exceeds 300 million orders, and if 10% were handled by robots, the market could exceed 55 billion yuan annually [20]. - Innovations in technology and business models, such as robot leasing and data services, are expected to accelerate the profitability of robot delivery systems [18][20].

Core Insights - The combination of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival created an 8-day "Golden Week," leading to a significant boost in domestic travel and consumption, with 888 million domestic trips and total spending of 809 billion yuan, marking an increase of 1.23 billion trips and 108.2 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Travel and Tourism - During the "Golden Week," there were 888 million domestic trips, an increase of 1.23 billion trips compared to the previous year [1] - Total domestic travel expenditure reached 809 billion yuan, up by 108.2 billion yuan from the previous year [1] - The "cultural tourism + instant delivery" model enhanced travel experiences, with significant increases in delivery volumes in popular tourist destinations like Harbin and Jingdezhen [8] Group 2: Instant Delivery Services - SF Express's same-city delivery service saw a 63% year-on-year increase in daily delivery volume during the holiday, with beverage deliveries increasing by 168% [4] - The "1-to-1 urgent delivery" service experienced over a 5-fold increase in volume on Mid-Autumn Day, catering to high-demand gift deliveries [10] - The integration of instant delivery with various retail sectors, including fast food and luxury goods, resulted in substantial growth in delivery volumes, indicating a shift towards a "buy anything at home" consumption model [7] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The holiday period saw a surge in demand for beverages, with daily delivery volumes increasing by 168%, highlighting the popularity of new tea drinks as essential holiday items [5] - The rise of the "flash purchase" model has established instant delivery as a new norm for holiday consumption, with diverse shopping experiences being offered to consumers [7] - The demand for personalized delivery services, such as gift-giving and urgent deliveries, reflects changing consumer preferences during festive seasons [10]