全球制造或将复苏：实物需求的新一轮上升周期 过去的几年中，海外发达经济体更加重视资本回报但对实体经济的重视程度相对不足，这体现为美国和欧元区上市公 司 ROE 中枢水平抬升和企业部门杠杆率的下降。但近期海外对于实体经济的重视程度正在提升：德国政府在上周提交 的 2025 年预算草案中提出在 2025 年投资 1200 亿欧元用于基础设施建设，同时大幅增加国防领域开支，2025 至 2029 年赤字规模扩张 8000 亿欧元，占德国 GDP 比重约 20%；美国方面，鼓励制造业回流是特朗普第二任期内重要的施政方 针之一，在刚刚签署的《大美丽法案》也有诸多条目用于鼓励制造业投资，将先进制造业投资可用于税收抵免的额度 由 25%提升至 35%，以制造生产为目的购置的固定资产可以在投入使用当年按 100%折旧进行抵扣。此外，《大美丽法 案》大幅提高了美国政府债务上限，由于当前美联储隔夜逆回购工具余额相比前两轮美国财政部补充 TGA 账户时要更 低，这可能意味着未来全球美元流动性可能会面临一定的冲击。6 月开始主要经济体制造业 PMI 处于共振修复的过程 中，这对于资产定价的意义是：有利于制造业大国的中国的资本品出口从 ...

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Strengthening - The fiscal policy for 2025 is set to be more proactive, shifting from "moderate increase" in 2024 to "more vigorous" measures in 2025, emphasizing counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilize the economy[5] - The budget deficit rate for 2025 is expected to reach a historical high, with significant increases in government bond issuance and spending intensity[14] - The focus of fiscal resources will be on people's livelihoods, consumption, and new productivity sectors, while also addressing risks in local debts and real estate[14] Group 2: Debt Instruments Expansion - The issuance of special bonds is set to increase to 4.4 trillion yuan in 2025, a 12.8% increase from 3.9 trillion yuan in 2024[21] - The plan includes 5,000 billion yuan in special government bonds to support state-owned banks' capital replenishment, enhancing their risk resistance and credit capacity[17] - The scope of special bonds will expand to include land reserves and the acquisition of existing housing for public welfare, with a shift from a "positive list" to a "negative list" for eligible projects[21] Group 3: Existing and Incremental Policies - Existing policies will be accelerated, with special bonds and long-term special bonds being issued and utilized promptly to enhance effectiveness[39] - The government aims to release the effectiveness of existing policies while reserving space for new incremental policies as needed[39] - New policy financial tools are in preparation to support technology innovation, consumption, and foreign trade, with an estimated scale of around 500 billion yuan expected to leverage investments significantly[7]

Core Insights - Infrastructure investment has shown positive trends this year due to proactive fiscal policies, accelerated government bond issuance, and the commencement of major projects, although some high-frequency data related to infrastructure and construction site funding rates indicate that the momentum for effective investment expansion still needs to be fully realized [1][4][5] Infrastructure Investment Trends - The issuance of new local government special bonds exceeded 440 billion yuan in May, marking a record high for the year, while the construction business activity index remained in expansion at 51% [1][2] - High-frequency indicators such as rebar apparent demand, cement dispatch rates, and asphalt plant operating rates weakened in May, with rebar demand at 248.91 million tons, cement dispatch at 41.25%, and asphalt plant operating rates at 27.7%, all lower than the same period last year [1][2] Construction Site Funding Rates - As of June 3, the funding rate for sample construction sites was 59.13%, below the critical threshold of 60%, with non-residential projects at 61.01% and residential projects at 49.85% [3][4] - The low funding rates may impact project construction progress, but the civil engineering business activity index rose to 62.3% in May, indicating a continued acceleration in project construction [3][4] Fiscal Policy and Investment Support - The acceleration of new special bond issuance and the initiation of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are expected to enhance fiscal support for effective investment [4][5] - The proportion of new special bonds allocated to infrastructure is approximately 72%, showing a slight increase from the previous month [5][6] Future Outlook - The issuance of replacement bonds has exceeded 80%, and the slowing pace of these issuances will create space for subsequent special bond issuances, which are expected to provide stronger support for infrastructure [5][6] - Experts predict that the necessity of using infrastructure investment to support the economy is increasing, with expected growth rates for broad and narrow infrastructure investments at 7.2% and 4.8% respectively for the year [6]

Group 1 - The issuance of local government bonds has significantly accelerated, with over 4 trillion yuan issued this year, of which nearly 40% are new special bonds [1] - The new special bonds are primarily directed towards major project construction, with 16.457 billion yuan in new local bonds issued [1] - The issuance of land reserve special bonds has reached 108.348 billion yuan, accounting for 7.75% of the new special bond funds [1] Group 2 - Land reserve activities are concentrated in economically stable regions, with third and fourth-tier cities showing high participation rates, accounting for nearly 75% of acquisition amounts [2] - More than half of the local bonds issued this year are for "borrowing new to repay old," primarily to replace hidden debts, with 82.8% of the planned total already disclosed [2] - The issuance of new local bonds is expected to accelerate, with June's issuance projected at around 1 trillion yuan [3] Group 3 - Infrastructure investment remains a key focus for the funding from new special bonds, with a significant emphasis on construction projects in the real estate sector [3] - The issuance pace of local government bonds is anticipated to increase in the second quarter, with an estimated total of 1.2 trillion yuan for the entire quarter [3]

该机构认为，政策驱动及行业技术快速迭代推动下，低空经济规模增势强劲。政策方面，可关注基础设 施建设、空域管理、城市试点等方面的专项政策，同时注意政策驱动向业绩驱动的转变。低空制造方 面，重点关注新型航空器的突破进展（如eVTOL、飞行汽车、氢能航空器等适航三证的获取、技术迭 代等），关注动力航电等关键稀缺、高价值量高利润环节；基础设施建设重点关注，（1）低空基建规 划设计/提供整体解决方案的设计院：持续深耕规划类业务，具有区位和资质优势，与多地方政府密切 合作；（2）空管平台产品及服务的提供商：空管项目落地进展快，业务毛利率高，龙头企业毛利率 30%—40%；（3）通信、导航、地图相关企业：通过融合发展5G、人工智能、大数据、天基互联网建 立"低空智联网"，有望带动云计算、通信、导航、地图相关企业发展。应用运营方面，关注各地应用场 景清单以及示范试点项目，率先关注文旅、物流两大场景的规模化，后续关注城市空中交通场景商业化 进展。 粤开证券指出，低空经济产业链涉及制造、服务、消费等多个环节，我国低空经济发展已具备较好产业 链基础。政策驱动及行业技术快速迭代推动下，2024年低空经济指数跑赢大盘，2025年上半年 ...

Group 1 - The report on the export risk index for small and micro foreign trade enterprises in China indicates an overall increase in export risks due to structural adjustments in the global economy and rising payment risks from overseas companies [2][3] - The index was developed using a comprehensive data set that includes macroeconomic, industry-specific data, trade policy expert surveys, and dynamic risk monitoring data, creating a multi-layered indicator system [3] - The report highlights that the overall credit risk faced by small and micro foreign trade enterprises has been on a continuous upward trend over the past three years, primarily due to the complexities of the international trade environment [3] Group 2 - The 26th Qinghai Green Development Investment and Trade Fair achieved a total signed investment amount of 86.94 billion yuan, with 82 projects signed across various sectors including new energy and infrastructure [5] - The fair attracted over 680 domestic and foreign enterprises, showcasing more than 10,000 unique products, and achieved nearly 70 million yuan in online and offline transaction amounts [5] Group 3 - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China reviewed the "Regulations on the Work of the Central Decision-Making and Coordination Institutions," emphasizing the importance of centralized leadership and effective coordination for major tasks [7] - The meeting stressed the need for thorough research and practical policy measures to enhance decision-making efficiency and effectiveness [7] Group 4 - The implementation plan for the high-quality development of inclusive finance aims to establish a comprehensive inclusive financial system within five years, focusing on optimizing service systems and enhancing credit support for small and micro enterprises [9] - Key tasks include improving the inclusive financial service system, enhancing the credit system, and strengthening the inclusive insurance system [9] Group 5 - The "Industrial Development Plan for the Hengqin Guangdong-Macao Deep Cooperation Zone (2025-2029)" aims for a high degree of economic coordination with Macao by 2029, with a focus on cross-border flow of resources and the establishment of a comprehensive regulatory framework [11] - The plan targets a 65% contribution of "new four" industries to the regional GDP and aims to facilitate the diversified development of Macao's economy [11] Group 6 - Anhui Province is enhancing digital literacy and skills among its population, with over 167,000 5G base stations established and all cities meeting "gigabit city" standards [13] - The province is also focusing on building a lifelong digital learning system and improving public awareness of cybersecurity [13] Group 7 - Sichuan Province's decision to support the listing of qualified cultural and tourism enterprises aims to strengthen the cultural tourism sector and foster the growth of leading enterprises in various related fields [15] - The initiative includes establishing a service system for the entire lifecycle of cultural tourism enterprises and protecting their legal rights [15] Group 8 - The West Artificial Island of the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Channel will be developed into a tourism project, integrating science education, themed sightseeing, and experiential learning [17] - This project aims to transform the channel from a transportation hub into a comprehensive landmark within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [17]

Group 1 - Li Aiqing, former chairman of Beijing Capital Group, was sentenced to death with a two-year reprieve for bribery and abuse of power, marking a significant case in the capital's corporate governance [1][6][7] - The total amount of bribes Li Aiqing received exceeded 200 million yuan, making it the largest bribery case uncovered by the Beijing Supervisory Commission since the reform of the supervisory system [7][8] - Li Aiqing held leadership positions in major state-owned enterprises in Beijing for 18 years, significantly impacting the local economy and governance [4][5][6] Group 2 - The Beijing State-owned Assets Management Company, where Li served as chairman, is a key player in managing and operating government assets, with a focus on capital operation and investment [5][6] - Beijing Capital Group, another major enterprise under Li's leadership, specializes in environmental protection, real estate, infrastructure, and financial services, boasting total assets exceeding 400 billion yuan by the end of 2020 [5][6] - Li's actions led to significant losses for state-owned assets, highlighting the risks associated with concentrated power in state-owned enterprises [6][7]

2025年6月26日，国务院国资委所辖央企之一——中国交通建设集团有限公司（下称"中交集团"）董事长、总经理双双易人。中国能源建设集团有限公司 （下称"中国能建集团"）党委书记、董事长宋海良取代王彤宙，任中交集团党委书记、董事长；中国林业集团有限公司（下称"中国林业集团"）总经理张炳 南取代王海怀，任中交集团党委副书记、董事、总经理。 2025年6月26日至6月27日，数位知情者向经济观察报记者确认了上述消息。 2018年10月，宋海良升任中交集团党委副书记、董事、总经理；一年多后，即2020年8月，宋海良离开中交集团，就任中国能建集团党委书记、董事长。 中交集团前任董事长王彤宙，1965年12月生，山西吕梁人。历任中国建筑海南开发公司副总经理；中建实业公司副总经理兼任中国建筑海南开发公司总经 理；中国建筑总公司总承包部（国内事业部）总经理兼中建国际建设公司常务董事、副总经理；中国建筑发展有限公司总经理；中国建筑工程总公司第六工 程局局长；中国水利水电建设股份有限公司副总经理；中国电力建设集团有限公司副总经理；中国节能环保集团公司总经理；中国有色矿业集团有限公司党 委书记、董事长；2020年8月开始，任中交集 ...

Group 1 - The UN Conference on Trade and Development reports a global FDI decline of 11% in 2024, totaling $1.493 trillion, influenced by geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation [1] - Developed economies experienced a 22% drop in FDI, with Europe facing a significant decline of 58%, while North America saw a 23% increase driven by the US [1] - Africa's FDI surged by 75% to a record $97 billion, accounting for 6% of global FDI, with Egypt leading in FDI stock at $205.2 billion [1] Group 2 - International financing for key sectors is declining, with infrastructure projects down 26%, renewable energy by 31%, transportation by 32%, and water and sanitation facilities by 30% in 2024 [2] - The UNCTAD Secretary-General highlights that many economies are overlooked not due to lack of potential but because capital is directed to easier access points rather than areas of need [2] - The digital economy is one of the few growing sectors, with a 14% increase in global FDI in 2024, although this growth is concentrated in 10 countries that account for 80% of new projects [2]

Core Viewpoint - The acceleration of global changes necessitates enhanced infrastructure connectivity as a crucial area for international cooperation, significantly contributing to global economic recovery [1]. Group 1: Infrastructure Connectivity Cooperation - The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) held its 10th Annual Meeting in Beijing, emphasizing the importance of infrastructure connectivity in addressing global challenges and promoting common development [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has collaborated with AIIB since 2019 to align development concepts and advance cooperation, achieving positive progress [3]. - As of now, three phases of sovereign loan cooperation have been conducted, involving 20 projects with a total loan amount of $6 billion, focusing on infrastructure connectivity and sustainable development [3]. Group 2: Recommendations for Expanding Cooperation - The NDRC suggests three key recommendations for expanding infrastructure connectivity cooperation: 1. Deepening strategic alignment and practical cooperation with countries and international organizations to enhance project planning and execution [5]. 2. Leveraging sovereign loan projects to promote green, low-carbon, and sustainable initiatives that facilitate cross-border connectivity and trade [5]. 3. Enhancing support for cooperation and experience sharing, encouraging international organizations to align with China's development concepts and share successful practices with other developing countries [5].