【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年11月21日 【行情分析】 11月21日，中天合创LDPE 1线等检修装置重启开车，塑料开工率上涨至89.5%左右，目前开工率 处于中性水平。截至11月21日当周，PE下游开工率环比上升0.20个百分点至44.69%，农膜仍处于旺季， 农膜订单依然稳定，处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存再次小幅增加，包装膜订单转而小幅增 加，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。石化去库放缓，目前石化库存处于近年同期中 性偏高水平。成本端，俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，美国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油 产量造成影响，另外有消息称特朗普政府秘密与俄罗斯协调一项结束乌克兰冲突的新框架，泽连斯 基表明对和谈持开放态度，原油价格下跌。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的埃克森美孚（惠州）LDPE 和70万吨/年的中石油广西石化近期投产。塑料开工率略有上升。农膜进入旺季尾声，订单稳定，旺 季成色不及预期，农膜价格稳定，温度下降，北方需求开始减少，预计后续下游开工率下降。下游 企业采购意愿不足，贸易商对后市谨慎，普遍降价积极出货，塑料产业还未有反内卷实际政策落地， 当然反 ...

从资金流向上来看，当日塑料板块主力资金净流出9.59亿元，游资资金净流入1.76亿元，散户资金净流入 7.82亿元。塑料板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，11月21日塑料板块较上一交易日下跌4.12%，佛塑科技领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3834.89，下跌2.45%。深证成指报收于12538.07，下跌3.41%。塑料板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000859 | 国风新材 | 8.68 | 10.01% | 316.64万 | | 26.05亿 | | 605488 | 福莱新材 | 32.38 | 2.63% | 10.40万 | | 3.37亿 | | 603928 | 兴业股份 | 16.73 | 2.32% | 21.54万 | 1 | 3.54亿 | | 001359 | 平安电工 | 53.80 | 1.84% | - 3.28万 | | 1.75亿 | | 688203 | 海正生材 | 13.10 | 1.00% | ...

Group 1: Automotive Industry Employment Trends - The employment in the German automotive industry decreased by approximately 48,700 people year-on-year as of September 2025, marking a decline of 6.3%, with total employees dropping to 721,400, the lowest since Q2 2011 [1] - The automotive industry experienced the largest year-on-year employment decline among major industrial sectors with over 200,000 employees, despite remaining the second-largest industrial sector in Germany after mechanical engineering [1] - Within the automotive sector, suppliers faced significant layoffs, with employment in the automotive and engine manufacturing sector totaling 446,800, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% [1] Group 2: Supplier Impact and Employment Statistics - Employment in the body, chassis, and trailer manufacturing sector saw a decline of 4.0%, with approximately 39,200 employees, while the automotive parts and accessories manufacturing sector experienced an 11.1% decrease, totaling around 235,400 employees [1] - Economists noted that the layoffs among suppliers were more pronounced than those among vehicle manufacturers, which is typical during economic downturns as manufacturers often shift cost pressures onto suppliers [1] Group 3: Broader Industrial Employment Trends - Other major industrial sectors in Germany also experienced varying degrees of layoffs, with the metal smelting and processing industry seeing a 5.4% year-on-year decline, and the data processing equipment, electronics, and optical products manufacturing sector declining by 3.0% [2] - The plastics and metal manufacturing industries also reported declines of 2.6% and 2.5%, respectively, both exceeding the average industrial decline [2] - Overall, German manufacturing employment totaled approximately 5.43 million as of September, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 120,300, or 2.2% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply - demand pattern of the plastic industry remains unchanged. Despite previous price rebounds driven by cost increases and downstream peak seasons, it is expected that plastics will mainly experience weak and volatile trends in the near future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 20, the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week of November 14, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week. The agricultural film is in the peak season with stable orders, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. Petrochemical inventory reduction has slowed down, and the current inventory is at a neutral - to - high level in recent years [1][4]. - The end of the US government shutdown and the strengthening of refined oil crack spreads in Europe and the US led to a rebound in crude oil prices after a decline. However, OPEC adjusted the global oil market from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, limiting the increase in crude oil prices [1]. - New production capacities of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE (500,000 tons/year) and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons/year) have been put into operation recently. The agricultural film peak season is coming to an end, downstream operating rates are falling, and downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness is insufficient. Traders are cautious about the future market and are actively selling at reduced prices. There is no actual anti - involution policy in the plastic industry yet [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastic 2601 contract fluctuated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 6,779 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,855 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,835 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.32%. The position volume decreased by 11,929 lots to 516,737 lots [2]. Spot - Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,790 - 7,220 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,750 - 9,280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,950 - 7,990 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 20, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week of November 14, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week. The agricultural film is in the peak season with stable orders and raw material inventory, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. - Petrochemical inventory: On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 690,000 tons week - on - week, 55,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory reduction has slowed down, and the current inventory is at a neutral - to - high level in recent years [4]. - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around $64 per barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $720 per ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $730 per ton week - on - week [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides daily observations and analyses of the plastic (L) and polypropylene (PP) markets from October 27 to November 25, 2025, including market conditions, important news, logical analyses, and trading strategies. Market conditions show fluctuations in contract prices and market prices of L and PP, influenced by factors such as futures trends, production enterprise price adjustments, and downstream demand. Important news covers various aspects such as corporate establishment, strategic cooperation, and industry development. Logical analyses consider factors like production volume, economic indicators, and industry indices to assess impacts on the market. Trading strategies suggest different actions for L and PP contracts, including holding, trying long or short positions, and setting stop - loss points [1][2][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - **L Plastic**: Contract prices fluctuated, with daily changes ranging from - 0.67% to + 0.82%. Market prices showed partial increases, decreases, or mixed trends, with price changes in different regions ranging from 10 - 110 yuan/ton. Downstream demand was generally weak, with factories showing low procurement enthusiasm and mostly making small - quantity or on - demand purchases [1][4][7]. - **PP Polypropylene**: Contract prices also fluctuated, with daily changes from - 0.82% to + 0.34%. The market was characterized by narrow fluctuations, weak trends, or partial price adjustments. Downstream demand was cautious, with low inventory - building willingness and a preference for low - price sources [1][4][7]. Important News - **Corporate Events**: Include the establishment of new companies such as Wan华绿能 (东明) 清洁能源有限公司, strategic cooperation like the one between 中化塑料 and 陶氏化学, and corporate acquisitions such as 中国浙江艾昕尔丝袜公司's acquisition of 西班牙百年尼龙企业 Nylstar [7][16][23]. - **Industry Developments**: Involve the release of industry rankings, the implementation of new projects like 中国石油广西石化公司's 120 -万吨/年乙烯装置, and the issuance of industry - related policies such as 《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案 (2025—2026 年)》[54][37][62]. - **Economic Data**: Include industrial production and sales data, PMI data, and logistics industry indices, which reflect the overall economic situation and industry trends [34][31][58]. Logical Analyses - **Supply - side Factors**: Consider factors such as domestic and international production volume changes of polypropylene, PE and PP capacity utilization rates, and inventory changes of relevant products [8][14][31]. - **Demand - side Factors**: Analyze factors like downstream industry demand (e.g., automotive, home appliance), economic policy uncertainty, and industry indices (e.g., PMI, logistics industry index) [2][34][31]. - **Other Factors**: Include stock index trends, freight index changes, and the relationship between different economic indicators [17][38][11]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Suggest different strategies for L and PP contracts, including holding long or short positions, trying long or short positions, or taking a wait - and - see approach, and setting corresponding stop - loss points [2][5][8]. - **Arbitrage Trading**: Most of the time, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [2][5][8]. - **Options Trading**: Usually, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [2][5][8].

Market Overview - The plastic sector experienced a slight decline of 0.07% on November 20, with Guoen Co., Ltd. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3931.05, down 0.4%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12980.82, down 0.76% [1] Top Gainers in the Plastic Sector - Zhangguang Co. (301092) saw a significant increase of 20.01%, closing at 41.02 with a trading volume of 116,300 shares and a turnover of 462 million yuan [1] - Guofeng New Materials (000859) rose by 10.04%, closing at 7.89 with a trading volume of 732,400 shares and a turnover of 577 million yuan [1] - Dongcai Technology (601208) increased by 10.01%, closing at 18.46 with a trading volume of 1,052,700 shares and a turnover of 1.926 billion yuan [1] Top Losers in the Plastic Sector - Tu'en Co. (002768) experienced a decline of 4.92%, closing at 53.13 with a trading volume of 25,000 shares and a turnover of 13.5 million yuan [2] - Weihai Bo (688718) fell by 4.26%, closing at 15.95 with a trading volume of 82,900 shares and a turnover of 138 million yuan [2] - Haizheng Biomaterials (688203) decreased by 4.00%, closing at 12.97 with a trading volume of 37,100 shares and a turnover of 48.77 million yuan [2] Capital Flow in the Plastic Sector - The plastic sector saw a net inflow of 49.82 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 75.13 million yuan [2] - However, there was a net outflow of 125 million yuan from speculative funds [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Dongcai Technology (601208) had a net inflow of 509 million yuan from institutional investors, representing 26.42% of its total trading [3] - Zhangguang Co. (301092) experienced a net inflow of 103 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 67.61 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Guofeng New Materials (000859) had a net inflow of 20.19 million yuan from institutional investors, while speculative funds saw a net outflow of 15.44 million yuan [3]

格隆汇11月20日丨银禧科技(300221.SZ)在互动平台表示，公司的PPO业务材料分为PPO注塑用改性塑料 与化工合成的电子化学品PPO材料。PPO注塑用改性塑料是公司成熟的产品，共用改性塑料产线，产能 充足。公司的电子化学品PPO年设计产能为300吨，但受多种因素影响，实际产能远低于设计产能，目 前还在爬坡中。 （原标题：银禧科技(300221.SZ)：PPO注塑用改性塑料是公司成熟的产品，共用改性塑料产线，产能充 足） ...

内容概要：作为一种高性能特种工程塑料，PPS树脂具有优异的耐热性、耐化学腐蚀性、尺寸稳定性、 阻燃性、电性能和力学性能，被公认为是继聚醚醚酮（PEEK）、聚砜（PSF）、聚酰亚胺（PI）、聚 芳酯（PAR）和液晶聚合物（LCP）之后的第六大特种工程塑料，也是八大宇航材料之一。近几年，随 着下游需求增加，企业纷纷加码扩产，全球PPS树脂产能不断增加。数据显示，2024年，全球PPS树脂 总产能达到21万吨/年，较2020年增加3.4万吨/年。全球PPS树脂产能集中在中国、日本、韩国等东亚地 区及美国地区。2024年中国PPS树脂名义产能达9.2万吨/年，有效产能6.8万吨/年，PPS树脂产量为5.0万 吨，有效开工率73%，有效产能占全球总产能的32.4%。需求端，2020-2024年，全球PPS树脂消费量由 9.9万吨增长至12.9万吨，期间年复合增长率约为6.8%。全球PPS树脂需求量稳健增长是高端制造产业扩 张、材料性能需求升级、制造技术进步及可持续发展趋势共同作用的结果，多重驱动因素形成持续增长 合力，推动市场规模不断扩容。聚焦中国市场，受益于汽车、环保、电子电器等下游行业不断发展，对 PPS树脂需求量 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2025年11月19日 【行情分析】 期货方面： 塑料2601合约减仓震荡上行，最低价6781元/吨，最高价6838元/吨，最终收盘于6833元/ 吨，在60日均线下方，涨幅0.22%。持仓量减少19678手至528666手。 现货方面： PE现货市场多数下跌，涨跌幅在-50至+0元/吨之间，LLDPE报6790-7220元/吨，LDPE报8750- 9280元/吨，HDPE报6950-7990元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 11月19日，宁夏宝丰全密度等检修装置重启开车，塑料开工率上涨至89%左右，目前开工率处于 中性水平。截至11月14日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降0.36个百分点至44.49%，农膜仍处于旺季，农 膜订单稳定，处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存继续稳定，但包装膜订单继续小幅减少，整体 PE下游开工率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。石化去库放缓，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性偏高水 平。成本端，美国政府停摆结束，欧美成品油裂解价差持续走强，原油价格跌后反弹，但欧佩克将 2025 ...

摘要：【图】2025年1-6月广西壮族自治区初级形态的塑料产量数据分析 据国家统计局数据，在2025年的前6个月，广西壮族自治区规模以上工业企业初级形态的塑料产量累计 达到了65.1万吨，与2024年同期的数据相比，下降了6.6%，增速较2024年同期低79.5个百分点，增速较 同期全国低16.9个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业初级形态的塑料产量7012.34753万吨的比重为 0.9%。 图表：广西壮族自治区初级形态的塑料产量分月（当月值）统计 2025年1-6月初级形态的塑料产量分析： 图表：广西壮族自治区初级形态的塑料产量分月（累计值）统计 2025年6月初级形态的塑料产量分析： 单独看2025年6月份，广西壮族自治区规模以上工业企业初级形态的塑料产量达到了15.3万吨，与2024 年同期的数据相比，6月份的产量增长了15.9%，增速较2024年同期低18.2个百分点，增速放缓，增速较 同期全国高3.8个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业初级形态的塑料产量1203.20899万吨的比重为 1.3%。 注：初级形态的塑料2004年及以前名称为塑料树脂及共聚物，简称塑料。 从2011年起，我国规模以上工业企 ...