Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes a consensus on a "slow bull" market, with a focus on "uncrowded growth" opportunities in sectors like AI and high-end manufacturing [2][13] - The macro liquidity environment is expected to remain ample, supporting a favorable capital market for 2026, with a recovery in investor risk appetite [2][13] - There is a recognition of potential valuation bubbles in certain industries, prompting a strategy to identify quality companies that are not overvalued and have solid performance [2][13] Group 2 - The investment outlook for 2026 includes a focus on the AI industry chain, semiconductor domestic substitution, and the expansion of China's advantageous manufacturing overseas [2][13] - The report highlights the importance of structural growth deepening, with a significant emphasis on sectors that are expected to benefit from global technological innovation [2][13] - The article notes that while some industries show signs of valuation bubbles, there is a commitment to continuously track areas with positive marginal changes to ensure sustainable returns for investors [2][13]

来源：华夏时报网 一家营业地址不明的小微私募，竟然获得了上市公司子公司的6000万投资，结果9个月亏损超过80%。 近日，圣元环保一纸公告，揭开了其6000万元私募理财账户在9个月内缩水至仅剩一千多万元的惊人事 实，一场关于投资巨亏的责任"罗生门"就此拉开帷幕。 2025年3月，圣元环保全资子公司厦门金陵基建筑工程有限公司，斥资6000万元认购了"深博宏图成长1 号私募证券投资基金"。根据公告，该基金净值在圣元环保计划赎回的一周内出现了断崖式下跌。12月4 日，基金单位净值为0.9215元，而到了12月11日，已骤降至0.2596元，一周内跌幅超过70%。 某资深私募人士对《华夏时报》记者表示："这一净值曲线不符合私募产品正常的波动特征，原因一可 能是底层数据未能及时同步，导致历史亏损被掩盖直至集中暴露；二是运作期间杠杆水平失控，在市场 压力下引发流动性或平仓危机，造成资产净值急速下滑。无论是哪种情况，都指向内部风控机制的严重 失灵，构成需要高度警惕的非正常风险事件。" 在发现基金严重亏损后，圣元环保于2025年12月14日派人赴深圳与基金管理人深博信投现场沟通。经协 商，基金管理人提出由自然人温廷涛对投资本 ...

2025年12月初，上海市民张恒接到了自称"量派投资"工作人员的来电，面对对方"带盘炒股""实战 训练营"的说辞，张恒有些心动，便通过了认证信息为"御轩汇电子商务商行"的账号发来的好友申请， 随后，对方引导张恒下载"脉达App"进行下一步沟通。 诈骗团伙作案手段升级，不仅用空壳公司的办公软件锁定目标，还打造与正规交易软件高度相似的 虚假交易平台，以"保本保息""高额签到奖励"为诱饵，诱导投资者转账充值，最终上演"平台登录失 败""提现失败"的骗局。 监管部门及行业专家共同提醒，通过私人链接下载的非正规App，往往是投资诈骗活动的起点，投 资者需高度警惕此类"隐蔽入口"带来的风险。"保本保息""承诺固定收益""亏损包赔"等话术，超出行业 合规边界的表述，是诈骗团伙设计的围猎陷阱。投资者需强化风险意识，坚守"不下载不明App、不相 信保本承诺、不向私人账户转账"的底线。 "免费体验20日亏损包赔""会员操盘稳赚55%分红"……2025年的A股市场上，不少股票出现翻倍行 情，让一些股民颇为心动。然而，在各种充满诱惑的话术下，一些人不知不觉踏入了"李鬼"私募的诈骗 陷阱。 私募，是一种以非公开方式向特定投资者募集资金 ...

时光如梭，已入新年。 过去一年，中国私募行业内部，许多变化完成了从显性波动到隐性定型的过渡。 这些迹象并不集中体现在短期业绩表现上，而是发生在结构、位置与角色的重新分配之中。 有的机构进入稳态区间，另有机构被迫加速调整，更有机构在失稳中逐步退场，这些变化并非单纯的周 期轮动。 资事堂团队通过走访证券类私募管理人、主要销售与服务渠道以及第三方研究人士，结合长期跟踪与一 线观察，尝试勾勒出未来一年行业可能呈现的轮廓。 这些判断并不追求即时显性化，而是指向正在形成的新秩序，也是对这一领域未来走向的冷静记录。 资事堂将其整理为2026年中国私募行业的十大预测。 过去两年时间里，私募资管舞台里出现了两个新的身影，一个是大型险资携政策红利而设立的私募投资 机构，一个是外资私募机构凭借业绩快速做强，两者在2026年可能继续高速成长，规模和影响力都持续 扩展。 险资私募方面，随着鸿鹄基金（由中国人寿与新华保险合资成立）在成立仅一年内即突破千亿规模后， 这条通道已经完全跑通。而外资机构方面，桥水中国规模的不断增大，也凸显了后者的竞争力。资事堂 预计，相关机构会不断成长，并实质性影响当下私募市场的供需结构。 03 基金业绩持续复 ...

2025年，私募行业可谓是百花齐放，捷报频传。10月， 百亿私募数量突破100家，私募业重返百家百亿的"双百时代"。 11月底，全国七千余家 存续证券类私募中，超六百家规模实现年度跃升，近百家机构规模跃升两级及以上，中坚力量势头强劲。"小而美"私募也不遑多让，凭借差异化 策略与灵活性操作，深耕细分领域持续创造超额Alpha，为行业生态注入了蓬勃活力。 2025私募十大现 象级事件：AI布局加速、百亿格局巨变... 私 募 基 金 近 1 年 收 益 TOP20 揭 晓 ！ 主 观 多 头 上 榜 门 槛 竟 这 么 高 ！ 百亿私募最新业绩榜揭晓！复胜、幻方居前！东方港湾领先近3年！ 往期推 荐 RECOMMEND 行业规模与产品发行同步走高 ：10月末， 国内存续私募基金管理规模首破 22万亿元大关 ；11 月末进一步攀升至22.09万亿元。截至12月25 日，私募排排网数据显示， 年内新备案产品数量超 1.2万只， 产品种类日趋多元，发行热度持续高涨。 从业绩表现来看，行业整体收获颇丰。截至2025年11月底， 私募排排网 有业绩展示的5116只产品，近1年平均收益为***%；策略层面，量化多 头、主观多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The private equity firms believe that the A-share bull market is ongoing, with a shift from liquidity-driven to fundamentals-driven growth expected in 2026, leading to increased stock selection difficulty and significant investment opportunities in areas such as overseas expansion, artificial intelligence, anti-involution, and domestic demand [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is still in a bull phase, with the valuation uplift driven by a loose liquidity environment in 2025 [2]. - The current stock-to-deposit ratio indicates that equity assets remain attractive, with room for residents to shift asset allocation towards the stock market [2]. - The ratio of total A-share market capitalization to household savings is around 0.65, suggesting that the bull market has not yet concluded [2]. Group 2: Fundamental Changes - A significant transformation in the underlying logic of the A-share market is noted, with improving free cash flow and increasing dividend and buyback ratios, expected to exceed 40% in 2025 [2]. - The transition from old to new economic drivers is underway, supported by a stable market mechanism from policy [2]. - The overall market risk appetite is bolstered by favorable liquidity conditions and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in 2026 are expected to focus on overseas expansion, artificial intelligence, anti-involution, and domestic demand [6][7]. - Strategic resource stocks, particularly copper and aluminum, are viewed positively due to limited supply growth and rising costs [6]. - High-growth sectors such as artificial intelligence, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industry are highlighted as attractive investment areas [6][7]. Group 4: Economic Recovery and Market Dynamics - The economic recovery is anticipated to be supported by domestic price recovery and the implementation of anti-involution policies, which may lead to a shift in market style from growth to value and cyclical stocks [5]. - The expected GDP resilience and ongoing domestic demand expansion are likely to contribute to a favorable investment environment [5]. - Historical data suggests that during periods of earnings recovery, the market can achieve significant returns despite limited valuation increases [5].

Core Viewpoint - The private equity industry in 2025 experienced a recovery and restructuring phase, marked by a significant rebound in fund management scale, regulatory tightening, and a shift in investment strategies towards quantitative and AI-driven approaches [1]. Group 1: Fund Management Scale - The private equity fund management scale surpassed 22 trillion yuan, reaching 22.09 trillion yuan by the end of November 2025, marking a net increase of over 2 trillion yuan within the year [2][3]. - The private securities investment funds emerged as the core driver of this growth, with their scale increasing from 5.21 trillion yuan at the beginning of the year to 7.04 trillion yuan by November, a total increase of 1.83 trillion yuan [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recovery in private equity scale was driven by a rebound in the stock market and a shift in investor risk preferences from defensive to selective active allocation, making private equity products a key option for asset allocation [3]. - The number of private equity firms with over 10 billion yuan in assets reached 113 by the end of October, indicating a return to the "double hundred" era, with 18 new firms joining in a single month [4]. Group 3: Fundraising Trends - Fundraising activities showed a significant recovery in the second half of 2025, with new private fund registrations reaching 1,689 and a total scale of 1,074.27 billion yuan in July, the highest monthly figure in nearly four years [6]. - The head effect in fundraising became more pronounced, with top quantitative firms significantly outperforming mid-tier and lower-tier managers in both product registration and new fundraising [6]. Group 4: Quantitative Strategies - Quantitative strategies, particularly index enhancement strategies, gained prominence in 2025, with products linked to small-cap indices like the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 showing annual returns exceeding 50% [7][8]. - The favorable market conditions and increased volatility provided opportunities for quantitative models to capture mispricing and generate alpha [7]. Group 5: Regulatory Developments - 2025 saw the implementation of new regulations for algorithmic trading, which aimed to enhance market fairness and transparency, shifting the focus from speed competition to strategy depth [9][10]. - The regulatory environment is expected to foster a more compliant and sustainable development of the quantitative investment sector, with clearer boundaries for operations [11]. Group 6: AI Integration - The introduction of AI technologies in quantitative investment processes marked a significant shift, with AI moving from a supportive role to a foundational one, enhancing data processing, feature extraction, and risk management [12]. - The competition in the quantitative sector is increasingly driven by the speed of model and algorithm iteration, with AI becoming a central element in strategy development [12][13]. Group 7: Global Expansion - The number of mainland private equity firms obtaining licenses in Hong Kong surpassed 100 in 2025, indicating a significant step towards global expansion and cross-border operations [14]. - The motivations for this international push include risk diversification, broadening investment opportunities, and enhancing client service capabilities [14]. Group 8: Industry Cleanup - The regulatory environment led to the cancellation of 1,118 private equity managers by November 2025, with a notable increase in voluntary cancellations, indicating a trend towards industry consolidation and compliance [15][16]. - The focus on compliance and long-term viability is expected to enhance the overall competitiveness of the private equity sector, shifting the emphasis from quantity to quality [16].

九坤投资是国内最早一批量化私募，近年来，创始团队正延展形成一个"科技和投资"双轮驱动的生态体 系。这与创始团队的发展基因是一以贯之的。其创始人曾公开表示，九坤投资的内核定位就是科技公 司。 2025年12月31日深夜，九坤投资发布公告称，至知创新研究院团队发布全新一代开源代码大模型IQuest- Coder-V1系列。 记者获悉，至知创新研究院由九坤投资创始团队发起设立，是独立于量化投研体系的全新平台。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent public course offering by renowned fund manager Li Bei has sparked significant market discussion, highlighting the evolving dynamics of the asset management industry and the rise of knowledge monetization in finance [1][15]. Group 1: Course Offering and Pricing - Li Bei announced a high-priced investment course titled "Learn Investment from Scratch," priced at 12,888 yuan for four sessions, targeting high-level professionals and affluent individuals [4][7]. - Despite the controversy, the course has reportedly sold out, with potential revenue estimated at approximately 2.58 million yuan if 200 spots were filled [9]. Group 2: Industry Reactions and Criticism - Former analyst Tan Jun has publicly criticized Li Bei's investment philosophy, particularly her views on AI and real estate, suggesting they reflect a misunderstanding of market trends [8][12]. - Tan Jun's critiques include claims that Li Bei's course model resembles that of problematic financial products, indicating a tendency to "precisely harvest conservative wealthy individuals" [8][12]. Group 3: Knowledge Monetization Trend - The rise of knowledge monetization in the finance sector has become a trend, with many former financial professionals leveraging their expertise to create paid content, often at higher price points than typical knowledge products [14]. - This trend reflects a broader shift in the asset management industry, where personal branding and social media presence are increasingly important for professional visibility and engagement [15].

市场有声音称"投资的尽头是卖课"，认为其在业绩承压（近三年管理部分产品跑输沪深300）时开辟流量变现新路径。面对市场质疑，李蓓回应称开课 是"意外"，非规划中业务，所有课程相关收入将注入慈善基金，初步考虑是用于支持在校大学生，且不会开设付费知识星球或微信群。 最近，"私募魔女"李蓓开始公开卖课一事引发市场热议。针对此事，近几天方正证券前分析师谭珺在个人公众号连续发文"开怼"，先是说要拆解李蓓"看 空AI、看多地产"背后的认知陷阱，后又将自己与李蓓的投资逻辑进行对比，今日又发文称李蓓存在"精准收割保守富人"的倾向。 对于谭珺的针锋相对，今日《每日经济新闻》记者联系上了李蓓本人。她回应称，自己不认识谭珺，也不关心对方的说法。 近年来，知识付费成为金融圈IP变现的新风口，也引发了不少争议。有业内人士认为，李蓓卖课"出圈"，折射出资管行业在当下的生态逻辑。从行业角度 看，这也可以视为资管行业个人品牌在社交媒体时代发展的一个缩影。 高价课程引发争议 12月26日，知名基金经理、半夏投资创始人李蓓通过半夏投资公众号发文《从0开始学投资》，宣称将通过"4节课教会普通人做投资"。引人关注的是，4 节课定价高达12888元。 ...