Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of China's economy in July, highlighting a slowdown in key economic indicators due to external and domestic challenges, including extreme weather and trade tensions. The focus is on maintaining policy stability and promoting domestic demand to support economic growth [3][4][5]. Economic Performance - In July, China's industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from June. The retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7%, also down by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [3][4]. - Fixed asset investment from January to July rose by 1.6% year-on-year, with a decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [3][4]. Industrial Production - The manufacturing sector showed a growth of 6.2% in July, while the mining industry grew by 5.0% and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector increased by 3.3% [4]. - The article notes that the "two new" initiatives are positively impacting industrial production, with significant growth in shipbuilding and electric motor manufacturing [4][5]. Consumer Market - The consumer market showed a mixed performance, with retail sales growth slowing down in July but service sector sales remaining stable. The overall retail sales growth for services was 5.2% from January to July [10][11]. - The article emphasizes the impact of policies promoting the replacement of old consumer goods, which has led to substantial growth in categories like electric bicycles and 5G smartphones [10][11]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment reached 288,229 billion yuan from January to July, with a 1.6% year-on-year increase. Excluding real estate, investment grew by 5.3% [14]. - Infrastructure investment rose by 3.2%, while manufacturing investment increased by 6.2%. However, real estate development investment saw a decline of 12.0% [14][15]. - The article highlights that despite a nominal slowdown in investment growth, the actual physical workload remains robust, driven by innovation and equipment upgrades [14][16]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that while there are pressures on investment growth, the potential for future investment remains significant, particularly in new productive forces and urban-rural coordination [16]. - The need for continued policy support to enhance domestic demand and innovation is emphasized to ensure sustainable economic development [5][7].

Report Summary 1. Market Logic and Trading Strategies Carbonate Lithium - **Market Logic**: On Wednesday, the SMM battery - grade carbonate lithium index price was 80,946 yuan/ton, up 2,822 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Most enterprises were in a wait - and - see mood, but due to some downstream enterprises' rigid procurement needs and the upstream and traders' reluctance to sell, the transaction price of carbonate lithium spot continued to rise significantly. Last week, the output of carbonate lithium was 19,556 tons, an increase of 2,288 tons from the previous week. Since mid - July, there have been news disturbances in lithium production, increasing concerns about the production stability of Yichun lithium mica mines. The total sample inventory last week was 142,418 tons, rising 692 tons from the previous week. In the long - term, the demand growth rate of new energy vehicles is gradually declining as the penetration rate exceeds 50% [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price fluctuates in the short - term. Upstream and downstream enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities according to their own risk management needs. The support for the main contract is 75,000 - 80,000 yuan, and the resistance is 88,000 - 90,000 yuan [4]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Logic**: Driven by profits, the main production areas resumed production last week, with the operating rate significantly increasing. Thanks to the synchronous resumption of downstream polysilicon production and rising procurement demand, the inventory of industrial silicon manufacturers decreased slowly. However, the market speculative sentiment is relatively cautious, and the acceptance of high - price goods is still low. It is expected that the spot price of industrial silicon will remain stable in the short - term, and the futures trend may be more guided by news [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited, but the high - level inventory still suppresses the price. Policy support exists, and the anti - involution sentiment may fluctuate. It is recommended to go long at low prices or sell slightly out - of - the - money put options on dips. The support interval is 8,200 - 8,300 yuan, and the resistance interval is 9,200 - 9,300 yuan [6]. Polysilicon - **Market Logic**: There are rumors that the industry may reach a consensus on joint production cuts to control the output in August and promote the return of the total inventory to a reasonable range. If true, it may lead to large - scale inventory reduction. However, the terminal demand is still weak, and the upside space for prices is limited. The futures price has a large premium over the spot price, and the increasing warehouse receipts also put pressure on the market. It is expected that the polysilicon market will fluctuate widely at a high level [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Existing long positions can be partially liquidated at high prices, and short put options sold at low prices can be hedged at high prices. The support level for the main contract is 47,000 - 48,000 yuan, and the resistance level is 55,000 - 56,000 yuan [7]. 2. Plate Strategy Recommendation and Spot - Futures Price Changes Plate Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium 09 | Driven by news | 65,000 - 66,000 yuan | 78,000 - 83,000 yuan | Oscillate strongly | Seize selling hedging opportunities, downstream cathode material enterprises focus on low - level stockpiling or buying hedging [13] | | Industrial Silicon 09 | Driven by news | 8,200 - 8,300 yuan | 9,200 - 9,300 yuan | Fluctuate widely | Sell put options on dips [13] | | Polysilicon 09 | Driven by news | 45,000 - 46,000 yuan | 55,000 - 56,000 yuan | Oscillate at a high level | Sell put options on dips [13] | Spot - Futures Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 85,100 yuan | 3.13% | 1,245,424 | 392,675 | 35,677 | 21,679 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,600 yuan | - 2.71% | 510,280 | 284,500 | 5,640 | 50,701 | | Polysilicon | 51,290 yuan | - 2.11% | 395,645 | 132,463 | - 3,592 | 5,150 | [13] | 3. Fundamental Data Carbonate Lithium - **Production and Inventory**: Last week, the output of carbonate lithium increased, and the inventory resumed its upward trend after a brief decline. The concentrated restocking on the demand side was remarkable, and the market's concern about supply stability is expected to support the lithium price [3]. - **Downstream**: Although the "two new" policies continue to support, the demand growth rate of new energy vehicles is gradually declining as the penetration rate exceeds 50% [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Production and Inventory**: The main production areas increased production last week, and the inventory of manufacturers decreased slowly due to the increase in downstream demand [5]. - **Downstream**: The downstream polysilicon industry resumed production, and the procurement demand increased [5]. Polysilicon - **Production and Inventory**: There are rumors of joint production cuts. If true, it may lead to inventory reduction. The terminal demand is weak, and the upside space for prices is limited [7]. - **Downstream**: The downstream demand has not weakened in the short - term, but the domestic demand may decline after the overseas policy window closes in the fourth quarter [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For lithium carbonate, the supply side has been affected by the suspension of mining operations at Jiangxi Jianxiawo and the announced suspension of Zangge Mining, increasing concerns about the production stability of Yichun lithium mica mines. Although the short - term demand - side restocking supports lithium prices, the growth rate of new energy vehicle demand is gradually declining. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate is likely to change from surplus to shortage, and prices may return above 100,000 yuan in the third and fourth quarters [5][6]. - For industrial silicon, profit drives the resumption of production in major producing areas, and downstream demand has recovered. The inventory of manufacturers is slowly decreasing, but the market's acceptance of high - price goods is low. The spot price is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the futures trend is more influenced by news, with a strong policy support but limited upside space [7]. - For polysilicon, if the industry's joint production - cut agreement is true, it may lead to large - scale inventory reduction. However, the terminal demand is weak, and the upside space for prices is limited. The futures price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Spot Price 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Lithium Carbonate 09**: The market is driven by news, with a support level of 75,000 - 80,000 yuan and a pressure level of 100,000 - 120,000 yuan. It is expected to fluctuate strongly. Downstream cathode material enterprises are advised to pay attention to low - level stocking or buying hedging opportunities [15]. - **Industrial Silicon 09**: Driven by news, with a support level of 8,200 - 8,300 yuan and a pressure level of 9,200 - 9,300 yuan. It is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation. It is recommended to go long on dips or sell slightly out - of - the - money put options [15]. - **Polysilicon 09**: Driven by news, with a support level of 47,000 - 48,000 yuan and a pressure level of 55,000 - 56,000 yuan. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to take partial profits or exit long positions on rallies and hedge short put options on rallies [15]. 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes - The closing price of lithium carbonate is 82,520 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.88%, a trading volume of 1,417,704 lots, an open interest of 356,998 lots, an increase of 39,322 lots in open interest, and 20,829 lots of warehouse receipts [16]. - The closing price of industrial silicon is 8,840 yuan, with a daily decrease of 1.78%, a trading volume of 520,504 lots, an open interest of 278,860 lots, an increase of 6,917 lots in open interest, and 50,658 lots of warehouse receipts [16]. - The closing price of polysilicon is 51,800 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.69%, a trading volume of 481,809 lots, an open interest of 136,055 lots, a decrease of 3,684 lots in open interest, and 4,940 lots of warehouse receipts [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 19,556 tons, an increase of 2,288 tons from the previous week. The total sample inventory was 142,418 tons, an increase of 692 tons from the previous week. The short - term concern about supply stability supports lithium prices, but the growth rate of new energy vehicle demand is declining [5]. - **Downstream Situation**: No specific data provided, but graphs related to downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials are mentioned [26]. 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: Profit drives the resumption of production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan, and the downstream demand has recovered, resulting in a slow reduction of manufacturers' inventory. However, the market's acceptance of high - price goods is low, and the spot price is expected to remain stable in the short term [7]. - **Downstream Situation**: Graphs related to downstream products such as organic silicon DMC and aluminum alloy are mentioned [37]. 3.2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: If the joint production - cut agreement is true, it may lead to large - scale inventory reduction. However, the terminal demand is weak, and the upside space for prices is limited [9]. - **Downstream Situation**: Graphs related to downstream products such as silicon wafers and photovoltaic modules are mentioned [43].

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is focusing on stabilizing employment, expanding domestic demand, and ensuring economic growth through a comprehensive policy toolbox [1][2] - The NDRC plans to distribute a fourth batch of 690 billion yuan in subsidies for consumption, completing the annual target of 3000 billion yuan [2] - The NDRC emphasizes the importance of artificial intelligence (AI) in enhancing productivity and efficiency across various industries, with a focus on commercializing AI applications [3] Group 2 - The central government is addressing issues of low-price disorderly competition and is committed to regulating such practices to ensure fair market competition [4][5] - The NDRC is revising the pricing law to clarify standards for identifying unfair pricing behaviors, particularly targeting predatory pricing below cost [5] - The NDRC aims to combine effective market mechanisms with proactive government intervention to improve market order and encourage high-quality competition [5]

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" trend is expected to continue, with positive performance in related sectors following the July 1 policy announcement. This trend is based on the expectation of improved industry performance and sustained demand, which may enhance the space for the "anti-involution" market [4][24]. - The U.S. tariff policy impact has dulled, with the recent extension of tariff exemptions and adjustments indicating a less aggressive stance, which may limit its overall market impact [4][30]. - As of July 20, 2025, 43.7% of the 1,547 listed companies that disclosed earnings forecasts reported positive expectations, particularly in sectors like non-bank financials, metals, and construction materials [4][31]. Group 2 - The GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, exceeding the annual target, with the second quarter showing a slight decline to 5.2% due to external factors. The first and third industries saw growth, while the second industry experienced a decline [34][35]. - The "anti-involution" policies have led to active responses from various industries, including steel, photovoltaic, and automotive sectors, which are expected to benefit from these measures [12][40]. - The focus on technology and advanced manufacturing sectors is highlighted, with significant opportunities in military, low-altitude economy, AI, and robotics, driven by favorable policies and high industry sentiment [40].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the allocation of over 300 billion yuan to support the third batch of "two heavy" construction projects in 2025, with a total of 800 billion yuan for the year, aimed at stabilizing economic growth and enhancing infrastructure investment [1][3]. Group 1: Investment and Project Allocation - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has arranged 800 billion yuan to support 1,459 projects in 2025, focusing on critical areas such as ecological restoration, major transportation infrastructure, and urban underground networks [3][4]. - In the first five months of the year, fixed asset investment in transportation reached 1.2 trillion yuan, while water conservancy construction investment was 408.97 billion yuan, indicating a strong push in infrastructure development [1][9]. Group 2: Policy Support and Financial Mechanisms - The government is implementing fiscal and monetary policies to ensure sufficient funding for major projects, including the early issuance of special bonds and new policy financial tools [1][10]. - The NDRC emphasizes the importance of "two heavy" projects in addressing long-standing issues that require central government intervention, focusing on areas like technological self-reliance and ecological security [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Future Outlook - Major projects are expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing economic operations, optimizing industrial structures, and enhancing public services in urban areas [5][8]. - Institutions predict that the growth rate of broad infrastructure investment could reach around 9% in 2025, continuing to support economic stability [1].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for June increased slightly by 0.2 points to 49.7, with six sectors in expansion compared to four in May, indicating a modest recovery in the manufacturing sector [1][5][6]. Manufacturing Sector Summary - The sectors leading in absolute prosperity include petroleum, chemical fiber, electrical machinery, specialized equipment, and agricultural products, benefiting from commodity price influences and large-scale equipment updates [1][7]. - The automotive sector saw a 7.8-point increase in export orders, with a 13.4% year-on-year growth in retail sales during the "618" promotion, and the launch of the 2025 new energy vehicle initiative [2][10]. - The pharmaceutical sector's PMI rose by 7.2 points, ending a two-month decline, influenced by policies supporting innovative drug development [2][10]. - Specialized equipment and non-metallic minerals also showed improvements, with increases of 3.3 and 3.7 points respectively, correlating with the rise in construction PMI [2][10]. - High-energy industries' PMI rose by 0.8 points, reflecting a divergence from overall manufacturing PMI trends [2][12]. Emerging Industries Summary - New materials and next-generation information technology are the only two sectors in the expansion zone for June, with new materials leading for two consecutive months and next-generation information technology for four months [3][13]. - The automotive manufacturing sector improved, but the new energy vehicle segment saw a significant decline in production by 15.9 percentage points, likely due to production cuts and supply-demand adjustments [3][15]. Construction Industry Summary - The construction PMI increased by 1.8 points in June, with residential and construction activity indices rising by 6.1 and 3.4 points respectively, attributed to improved funding for projects and minimal weather impact on indoor construction [3][15][16]. - However, the real estate sector's activity index and new orders declined by 0.7 and 2.9 points, indicating ongoing challenges in the front-end sales segment [3][19]. Service Industry Summary - The information technology and financial services sectors showed the highest prosperity, while offline travel-related industries experienced significant declines, with transportation and hospitality sectors dropping over 5 points [4][19][20]. - The service sector PMI decreased slightly by 0.1 points to 50.1, with various service sectors showing mixed performance [4][20]. Overall Insights - The overall PMI remains low, highlighting the need to focus on mid-level indicators, such as the benefits seen in emerging sectors, the automotive export order increase, and the recovery in pharmaceutical manufacturing [4][21].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce of China is accelerating the review of export license applications related to rare earths, emphasizing the importance of maintaining global supply chain stability [2] - The Chinese government is willing to enhance communication and dialogue with relevant countries regarding export controls to facilitate compliant trade [2] Group 2 - The Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, held a video conference to strengthen safety management in the new energy vehicle sector, emphasizing the responsibility of manufacturers for product quality and safety [5] - Companies are urged to avoid exaggerated claims and ensure consumer safety while maintaining long-term commitments rather than engaging in short-term cost-cutting measures [5] Group 3 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has developed a special action plan to enhance ESG ratings for listed companies, aiming to improve the quality of ESG information disclosure and promote long-term capital inflow [4] - The action plan includes six key initiatives: providing rating guidance, promoting communication, improving information disclosure, forming best practices, enhancing positive incentives, and improving management performance [4] Group 4 - Beijing's municipal government has issued interim support measures to promote the high-quality development of the gaming and esports industry, including financial rewards for successful game projects and support for cultural collaborations [6] - The measures aim to foster the creation of high-quality games that reflect cultural characteristics and enhance market competitiveness [6] Group 5 - Several companies have made significant announcements, including Zhaoyi Innovation submitting an H-share listing application and Sanhua Intelligent Controls setting its H-share issue price at HKD 22.53 [8] - Other notable developments include Ningde Times planning to use up to 4.5 billion yuan of idle fundraising for cash management and Long Spring High-tech receiving approval for a clinical trial of a flu vaccine [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy has demonstrated resilience and stability in the face of significant external and internal pressures, with key economic indicators showing positive growth despite challenges [1][3]. External Pressures - The international environment has changed dramatically in the first four months of the year, yet China's goods import and export maintained growth, with April showing a year-on-year increase of 5.6% and a 2.4% increase from January to April [3]. - The stability in foreign trade is attributed to diversification, timely responses from private foreign trade enterprises, and a solid industrial foundation that allows for flexibility and resilience in the global supply chain [3][4]. Domestic Demand - Insufficient domestic demand is also a pressure point, but it is being transformed into an opportunity to expand domestic demand [4]. - The government has implemented major strategic initiatives and safety capability projects, with nearly 500 billion yuan allocated in the first four months of the year to support 1,465 key projects, enhancing infrastructure and improving public welfare [5][6]. Consumer Engagement - The "old for new" consumption initiative has revitalized consumer activity, with over 300 million applications for vehicle trade-ins and significant sales in home appliances and digital products, indicating strong consumer participation [5][6]. Economic Dynamics - The Chinese economy is likened to a resilient spring, with increasing pressure leading to greater potential for growth, supported by favorable economic data related to new productive forces [8]. - The ability to withstand pressure is rooted in the leadership of the Communist Party, institutional advantages, a vast market, and the creativity of the population [8][9]. Continuous Adaptation - The approach to managing pressure is not passive but involves proactive innovation and the implementation of effective strategies [9][10].

Group 1: "Two Major" Construction Projects - The "Two Major" construction projects focus on strategic implementation and key area safety capability enhancement, targeting technology self-reliance, urban-rural integration, regional coordination, high-quality population development, food security, energy resource security, and ecological safety [2][3] - In 2024, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has allocated over 700 billion yuan in special long-term bonds for major projects, with nearly 500 billion yuan planned for 2025, supporting infrastructure along the Yangtze River, urban underground networks, and other significant projects [2] - Aiming for high-quality implementation, the NDRC plans to finalize the list of "Two Major" construction projects by the end of June, emphasizing both "hard investment" and "soft construction" to enhance project efficiency [3] Group 2: "Two New" Policies - The "Two New" policies involve large-scale equipment updates and consumer product exchanges, with the NDRC leveraging special long-term bond funds to accelerate these initiatives, which are crucial for boosting consumption, stabilizing investment, and improving livelihoods [4] - In April, retail sales of major household appliances and cultural products saw significant year-on-year growth, contributing to a 1.4 percentage point increase in total social retail sales [4] - Investment in equipment and tools rose by 18.2% year-on-year from January to April, with related manufacturing sectors also experiencing substantial growth [4][5] Group 3: Economic Performance and Outlook - Despite a complex external environment, China's economy shows stable growth, with retail sales reaching 16.2 trillion yuan in the first four months, a 4.7% year-on-year increase [6][7] - Manufacturing investment grew by 8.8%, and exports of lithium batteries and electric vehicles surged by 44.4% and 25.7%, respectively [7] - The NDRC is committed to implementing policies to stabilize employment and promote high-quality development, with most measures expected to be in place by the end of June [8]