Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached 3500 points, marking a 9-month high, with a trading volume of 1.52 trillion yuan, slightly down from 1.53 trillion yuan the previous day [1] - Large funds have not exited the market, but trading volume remains relatively low [1] Sector Performance - Real estate stocks have surged, with companies like Yuhua Development and Nanshan Holdings hitting the daily limit [2] - Bank stocks have also performed well, with major banks like ICBC and Bank of China reaching historical highs [3] Earnings Reports - Yuhua Development reported a significant increase in net profit, with a year-on-year growth of 632% to 784% [7] - Northern Rare Earth announced a staggering net profit increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71% [8] - Hongyuan Power, which has seen a price increase of over 84% in 8 trading days, reported a net profit growth of 3600.7% to 4423.07% [10] - Red Tower Securities reported a net profit increase of 45% to 55% [9] Market Trends - The strong performance of these sectors and stocks is supported by their earnings, indicating a potential shift in capital from previously overheated sectors to those with lower valuations and solid earnings [11] - Over 200 listed companies have reported earnings, with more than 60% showing positive net profit growth [12] - The majority of companies with earnings growth are from the computer, communication, and electronic equipment manufacturing industries, as well as the chemical and pharmaceutical sectors [13] Earnings Forecasts - A list of companies with significant expected profit increases includes Huayin Power (4423.07%), Xian Da Co. (2834.73%), and Tianbao Infrastructure (2329.27%) [15] - Conversely, companies like Sanmu Group and Shangwei Co. are expected to report losses, with declines of -1721.03% and -1263.41% respectively [16]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.48% closing at 3509 points, reaching a new high for the year [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.47%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.22% [1] - Total trading volume for the day was 1.52 trillion yuan, a decrease of 124 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 2900 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance - Several silicon wafer companies raised their prices, leading to a surge in the organic silicon sector, with companies like Hongbai New Materials and Chenguang New Materials hitting the daily limit [2] - The real estate sector saw significant gains, with companies such as Huaxia Happiness and Shen Shen Fang A also hitting the daily limit due to debt restructuring progress [2][4] - Bank stocks were strong, with major banks like ICBC and ABC reaching new highs [2][8] - The assembly construction sector performed well, with companies like Sifang New Materials and Chengdu Road and Bridge hitting the daily limit [2] - The jewelry sector declined, with Jin Yi Culture hitting the daily limit down, while the shipbuilding sector continued to fall [2] Notable Stocks - Huaxia Happiness rose by 10.22% to 40.23 yuan, while Te Fa Service and Shen Shen Fang A also saw significant increases [5] - In the rare earth sector, companies like Jingyuntong and Northern Rare Earth hit the daily limit, with Northern Rare Earth forecasting a net profit increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71% for the first half of 2025 [6][7] - Bank stocks showed strong performance, with Minsheng Bank up over 5% and several major banks reaching historical highs [8][9] - In the silicon energy and photovoltaic sectors, companies like Silicon Treasure Technology surged over 18%, driven by a price increase in silicon materials [10] Policy and Market Sentiment - Positive policy signals have been released, supporting the real estate sector's rise, with over 150 measures related to housing provident fund optimization introduced nationwide [5] - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing supply-side reforms, with major glass manufacturers announcing a collective production cut of 30% [11] - Market sentiment is improving, with trading funds showing a preference for risk, indicating a potential for a technical breakthrough in the A-share market [13]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant increase in the smuggling of antimony from China to the U.S., with 3,834 tons reported from December last year to April this year, surpassing the total of the previous three years combined [1] - A detailed investigation reveals that Chinese companies are colluding with foreign buyers to disguise regulated antimony as ordinary minerals, facilitating its entry into U.S. military production lines [1][3] - The surge in rare earth prices, which have increased over 200% since China's regulatory measures, has incentivized companies to engage in illegal activities [4][5] Group 1: Smuggling Operations - The smuggling of rare earth elements is characterized as a sophisticated cross-border "legal disguise" operation, where shipments are mislabelled as iron ore or zinc concentrate [3] - A specific case is noted where a Chinese chemical company in Guangxi shipped at least 3,366 tons of antimony products to the U.S. within six months, marking a 27-fold increase year-on-year [3] - The limited production capacity of Thailand's only antimony smelter raises questions about the true origin of these shipments [3] Group 2: Regulatory Response - In response to the growing smuggling networks, Chinese regulatory authorities have initiated a comprehensive crackdown on strategic mineral smuggling, focusing on three main tactics: false reporting, concealed smuggling, and third-country transshipment [8] - Advanced detection technologies have been introduced, as evidenced by the interception of 25 tons of antimony disguised as medical equipment by Hong Kong customs [8] - The effectiveness of these regulatory measures has been noted, with a significant reduction in the illicit acquisition of rare metals by the U.S. since May [8] Group 3: Legal Framework - The newly enacted Mineral Resources Law has significantly increased the criminal penalties for mineral smuggling, with potential sentences of up to ten years in prison [9] Group 4: Industry Concerns - Industry experts warn that while China's separation and purification technology for rare earths is currently superior, the U.S. is rapidly catching up, necessitating vigilance in protecting national strategic resources [11] - The article emphasizes that the defense of rare earth resources is not just about physical assets but also about the commitment of the nation to safeguard its core interests [11]

Macro Dynamics - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to Germany's claim that the Chinese military aimed a laser at a German aircraft, stating that the information is inconsistent with China's understanding of the facts [2] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in June 2025, the industrial producer price index decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that 402 new drugs have been added to the national medical insurance drug list since the 14th Five-Year Plan began [4] Financial Institutions - BNP Paribas completed the acquisition of AXA Investment Managers, integrating it into its group, managing over €1.5 trillion in assets post-acquisition [9] Market Data - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.13% on July 9, with a total market turnover of approximately ¥1505.19 billion [13] - The financing balance of the two markets increased by ¥5.48 billion, reaching a total of ¥1845.97 billion [14] Company Dynamics - Hongta Securities expects a net profit of ¥651 million to ¥696 million for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 45% to 55% [11] - Hainan Province's former transportation investment chairman was prosecuted for bribery, indicating potential governance issues within state-owned enterprises [18] - BYD announced comprehensive coverage for users of its "Heavenly Eye" vehicles in smart parking scenarios, with over 1 million units in circulation [19] - Huaxi Biological passed the FDA's cGMP inspection with zero defects, indicating strong compliance in its production processes [21] - Northern Rare Earth expects a net profit of ¥900 million to ¥960 million for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71% [22]

Core Viewpoint - Recent developments in economic cooperation between China and Indonesia, particularly in mining and battery industries, are seen as significant for Indonesia's economic growth, but the potential for increased rare earth cooperation with the US introduces uncertainty [1][3]. Group 1: China-Indonesia Economic Cooperation - Chinese enterprises are making large-scale investments in Indonesia's mining and battery sectors, which are crucial for the country's economic development [1]. - Indonesia's Minister of Economic Coordination, Airlangga, expressed a willingness to enhance rare earth cooperation with the US during negotiations, which could impact the future of China-Indonesia collaboration [1][3]. Group 2: US Rare Earth Cooperation - If the US-Indonesia rare earth cooperation materializes, it could challenge China's influence in the rare earth trade and complicate China's response to US economic pressures [3]. - Indonesia's decision to cooperate with the US is influenced by its own economic considerations, including the pressures from US tariff policies [3]. Group 3: China's Position in Rare Earth Trade - China's dominance in rare earth trade is attributed not only to its abundant reserves but also to its advanced refining technology and comprehensive production systems, making it difficult for other countries to compete effectively [3]. - China has not completely banned rare earth exports but has implemented strict approval processes, allowing exports to friendly nations under certain conditions [5]. Group 4: Strategic Implications for China - The US investment in Indonesian rare earth mining could potentially reduce China's extraction costs, allowing China to focus on deep processing and technology export, thereby reinforcing its leading position in the rare earth trade [5]. - China should continue to enhance its rare earth industry and technological innovation to maintain long-term competitiveness in the global market [7].

Core Insights - The cooperation between China and Indonesia in various economic sectors, particularly in mining and battery industries, is seen as a significant driver for Indonesia's economic development [1] - Indonesia's Minister of Economic Coordination expressed a desire to strengthen cooperation with the United States in rare earth minerals, which has garnered widespread attention [3] Group 1: China-Indonesia Cooperation - Chinese enterprises are investing billions of dollars in Indonesia to build integrated mining and battery commercial entities, which is crucial for Indonesia's economic growth [1] - Indonesia's decision to explore rare earth cooperation with the U.S. may weaken China's influence in the rare earth trade [3] Group 2: U.S. Rare Earth Cooperation - The U.S. has long sought to reduce its dependence on China for rare earths, which are essential for modern industrial applications [1][3] - Indonesia faces pressure from U.S. tariff policies, prompting the need to consider cooperation in the rare earth sector [3] Group 3: China's Competitive Advantage - China's unique position in rare earth trade is not solely based on abundant reserves but also on advanced refining technology and a comprehensive production system [5] - Even if the U.S. sources rare earths from Indonesia, it may still rely on China's deep processing technology [5] Group 4: Strategic Implications - U.S. investment in Indonesian rare earth mining could potentially save China on extraction costs, allowing it to focus on deep processing and technology export [7] - China should continue to enhance its rare earth industry and technological innovation to maintain long-term competitiveness in the global rare earth trade [7] Group 5: Diplomatic Relations - China should promote friendly cooperative relationships with various countries and resolve trade disputes through diplomatic channels [9] - In the context of global economic integration, cooperation and mutual benefit are seen as the correct path for economic development [9]

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced tariffs on 30 products from various countries as a countermeasure against trade protectionism, marking the beginning of an international economic and trade confrontation [1][3] - India has imposed a temporary safeguard tariff of 12% on Chinese steel after progress in US-India trade negotiations, indicating a strategy to gain favor with the US [1][3] - The EU is collaborating with the US to address China's "overcapacity" issues, with some EU leaders expressing willingness to align with US policies in exchange for tariff reductions [1][3] Group 2 - China has implemented anti-dumping duties on products from the EU, UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for five years, effective July 1, following previous anti-dumping measures taken by these countries against Chinese goods [3][5] - The EU has expressed concerns over China's control of rare earth exports, with officials demanding the restoration of open trade, but China has tightened regulations in this sector [5][7] - The current international landscape is characterized by rising trade protectionism, with China firmly defending its interests and willing to engage in equal negotiations with countries that show sincerity [7]

大摩宏观闭门会：政治局会议前瞻，稳定币解读及房地产市场更新 20250630 发言人 00:00 发言人 00:09 大家上午好，欢迎来到 1 周一度的大模宏观策略谈，我是罗丙邢志强。大家肯定很关注接下来七月份有 政治局会议对下半年的经济政策定调，会不会有一些新的调整变化。我从昨天开始，周末就到了北京， 这周也会参加一些闭门研讨。我想现在各个部委、各个智库、各个体制内都在紧锣密鼓的分析经济形势 为决策层供稿谏言准备一些政策选项。我今天和我们团队的三位主讲嘉宾，包括蔡志鹏博士经济学家， 包括张磊，我们大宗商品和战略原材料行业的主管，以及安全我们香港房地产的分析师一起会聚焦四个 问题。第一点就是政治局会议对下半年经济政策节奏和空间的判断。第二点则是最近把中美博弈的因素 扩展到货币结算体系，包括人民币稳定币以及稀土这张牌中国接下来会怎么打？其实稀土小院高墙这张 牌跟稳定币人民币的贸易结算之间是有互相促进的可能性，我们会做一些探讨和分析。 发言人 01:40 这里面尽管今天 lao ra 我们的首席策略是由于在休假错过一周，但我们也会简单的涉及到一点，从过 去三四个月我们讲到的东稳西大，就美国的各种政策不确定性带来的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is intensifying its narrative around the issue of rare earth magnets, accusing China of "weaponizing" these resources, while China has begun issuing export licenses for compliant applications from EU companies [1][5]. Group 1: EU's Position and Concerns - European governments and businesses have been lobbying China to ease export restrictions, viewing the situation as a "structural problem" in the bilateral agenda with China [2][4]. - EU officials express uncertainty about whether China's actions are a deliberate strike against EU companies or if they are collateral damage in the US-China competition [2][4]. - The EU is seeking a long-term solution and hopes for the restoration of open trade in rare earth magnets by April next year, or at least exemptions for non-military related EU companies [4][5]. Group 2: China's Response and Export Policies - China's Ministry of Commerce has confirmed the approval of a certain number of compliant export applications for rare earth magnets, emphasizing the importance of maintaining global supply chain stability [8]. - The Chinese government has implemented export control measures that have expanded in scope, affecting not only rare earths but also critical raw materials and technologies [5][7]. - China asserts that its export control measures are in line with international practices and are non-discriminatory, not targeting specific countries [5][8]. Group 3: Trade Dynamics and Economic Impact - The EU's trade surplus with China has increased by nearly 23% in the first five months of this year, reaching a record $117 billion, despite claims of unfair competition [7]. - EU officials have highlighted the severe impact of magnet shortages on European companies, urging China to address these issues promptly [7][8]. - The EU is concerned about becoming a battleground in the strategic competition between the US and China, particularly in the rare earth sector [4][5].

Group 1 - The company, Jinli Permanent Magnet (300748.SZ), has initiated export declaration work in accordance with national regulations following the implementation of export control measures related to medium and heavy rare earth items [1] - The company has obtained export licenses issued by national authorities, with export regions including the United States, Europe, and Southeast Asia [1] - In the robotics sector, the company is actively collaborating with world-renowned technology companies on the research and development of embodied robot motor rotors and capacity construction, with small batch deliveries already taking place [1]