Group 1 - On January 7, 21 companies were investigated by institutions, with 19 of them being attended by funds, highlighting a strong interest in specific companies like Chaojie Co., Shunhao Co., and Dongfang Shenghong [1][2] - Chaojie Co. received the most attention, with 27 funds participating in its investigation, while Shunhao Co. and Dongfang Shenghong had 18 and 13 funds respectively [1][3] - The companies investigated belong to various sectors, with the electronics and machinery equipment industries having the highest representation, each with 3 companies [1] Group 2 - Among the companies investigated, 3 have a total market capitalization exceeding 500 billion yuan, with BOE Technology Group being one of them, while 8 companies have a market cap below 100 million yuan [1] - In terms of market performance, 14 out of the investigated stocks increased in value over the past 5 days, with the highest gains seen in Pulite, Shunhao Co., and Guanglian Aviation, which rose by 38.07%, 20.57%, and 13.49% respectively [1][2] - Conversely, 4 stocks experienced declines, with the largest drops recorded by Binglun Environment, Haixia Co., and Dongfang Shenghong, which fell by 11.15%, 10.70%, and 2.09% respectively [1]

Core Insights - A total of 57 companies have announced their annual performance forecasts for 2025, with 47 companies expecting profit increases, representing 82.46% of the total [1] - The overall proportion of companies forecasting positive performance is 87.72%, with 3 companies expecting profits and 3 companies expecting losses [1] - Among the companies predicting profit increases, 10 are expected to see net profit growth exceeding 100%, while 12 companies anticipate growth between 50% and 100% [1] Company Performance Highlights - The company with the highest expected net profit growth is Zhongtai Co., with a median increase of 677.22% [2] - Chuanhua Zhihui and Bai'ao Saitu are projected to have median net profit growth of 308.82% and 303.57%, ranking second and third respectively [2] - Other notable companies with significant expected profit increases include Yinglian Co. (193.27%), Tianci Materials (178.97%), and Guangku Technology (162.00%) [2] Industry and Sector Analysis - Companies expecting to double their profits are primarily concentrated in the machinery, public utilities, and steel industries, with one representative from each sector [1] - The main board, ChiNext, and STAR Market have 7, 2, and 1 companies respectively among those forecasting profit increases [1] - The average increase in stock prices for companies expecting profit doubling this year is 6.27%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [1] Stock Performance - Nanjing Xingsheng has seen the highest stock price increase this year, with a cumulative rise of 21.01% [1] - Other companies with notable stock performance include Whirlpool (12.45%) and Chuanhua Zhihui (6.71%) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent stock price surges and subsequent trading suspensions of two companies, Guosheng Technology and Jiamei Packaging, due to significant deviations from their fundamental performance, indicating potential market overheating and irrational speculation [2][8]. Guosheng Technology (国晟科技) - Guosheng Technology's stock price increased by 370.2% over two months, leading to a trading suspension for verification due to abnormal price fluctuations [3]. - The company reported a net loss of 151 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a disconnect between stock performance and financial health [7]. - The company is involved in the research, production, and sales of high-efficiency photovoltaic cells and has faced liquidity risks from recent investments and acquisitions, including a 100% stake in Tongling Fuyue Technology [4][7]. Jiamei Packaging (嘉美包装) - Jiamei Packaging's stock price surged by 230.48% over a three-week period, prompting a trading suspension for verification due to a significant deviation from its fundamentals [8]. - The company reported a net profit of 39.16 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a 47.25% decrease year-on-year, highlighting a disparity between stock price and actual performance [11]. - The company is engaged in the research, design, production, and sales of food and beverage packaging containers, with potential changes in control due to a share transfer agreement [8][11].

- The report discusses the construction of a "ROIC Model" for interest rate predictions. The model calculates the implied ROIC of the bond market and compares it with the equity market's ROIC to estimate the interest rate midpoint. The formula used is: $ ROIC = (Risk-free rate + Equity risk premium) × Equity proportion + (Risk-free rate + Credit risk premium) × Debt proportion $ Here, the risk-free rate is represented by the 30-year government bond yield, and the credit risk premium is derived from AAA corporate bond spreads. The model uses data from A-share listed companies (excluding financials) and large-scale industrial enterprises to calculate ROIC values. The results show a long-term downward trend in both equity and bond market ROICs, with equity ROIC consistently higher by an average of 50 basis points over the past decade[51][52][56] - The "Multi-cycle Interest Rate Timing Strategy" is introduced, which employs kernel regression algorithms to identify support and resistance levels in interest rate trends. This strategy is applied to 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond yields. The annualized returns for the strategy are 2.19%, 2.48%, and 3.26%, respectively, with maximum drawdowns of 0.72%, 0.97%, and 1.71%. The strategy demonstrates stable performance, with probabilities of achieving positive absolute and excess returns close to 100% since 2008[75][77][81] - A "Pure Bond CARRY Strategy" is also highlighted, which leverages dynamic leverage to enhance returns. The strategy allocates 140% to bonds when borrowing costs (R007) are below the 80th percentile of historical levels and 100% otherwise. Over the past decade, the strategy has delivered an annualized return of 5.56%, with a return-to-drawdown ratio of 0.92. In 2023-2025, the strategy achieved annual returns of 7.21%, 7.39%, and 2.25%, respectively, with excess returns of 84 basis points, 121 basis points, and 21 basis points[83][84][88] - The "Momentum and Fundamental Composite Factor" is used for sector rotation strategies. This factor combines "Net Profit Growth Rate (QoQ)" and "ROA TTM Growth Rate (QoQ)" to rank industries. Historical backtests from 2008 to 2025 show strong performance, with an average annualized return of 18.60% and an excess return of 8.49% over the benchmark. In 2025, industries such as electronics, computers, media, defense, non-ferrous metals, and new energy equipment ranked high in both valuation and fundamental improvement metrics, making them recommended sectors for Q1 2026[45][46][47] - The "PB-ROE Framework" is applied to identify undervalued industries. By comparing the PB and ROE levels of various sectors as of December 31, 2025, industries like non-bank financials, home appliances, agriculture, basic chemicals, and light manufacturing are identified as having relatively low PB but high ROE expectations. These sectors are considered undervalued and are recommended for investment in 2026[48][49][50]

证券研究报告|北交所专题报告 2026年1月6日 2025年新股首日涨幅均值368%，千万级账户2025年收益率预计3.4% —北交所新股月度巡礼（2025年12月） 证券分析师 姓名：赵昊 资格编号：S1350524110004 邮箱：zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 联系人 姓名：胡文瀚 邮箱：huwenhan@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 核心要点：2025年新股首日收益率368%，预期顶格收益达48万元 n 发行情况：2025年共计26家公司完成上市，募资75亿元，全年募资显著超越2024年；12月有3家公司上市，募资额7.8 亿元，2025Q4则整体上市11家（募资24亿元），北交所IPO节奏维持加速态势，预计后续IPO或延续该节奏。 n 公司质量：2025年北交所新上市公司的2024年营收平均为7.8亿元，归母净利润平均为1.0亿元，毛利率达34%，财务数 据相比2023-2024年新上市公司显著提升。 n 首日涨幅：2025年北交所IPO首日平均涨幅达到368%，较2024年显著提升。12月3家新上市公司，首日平均涨幅达463%； ...

公司发布的三季报数据显示，前三季度公司共实现营业收入20.39亿元，同比下降1.94%，实现净利润 3916.02万元，同比下降47.25%，基本每股收益为0.0410元，加权平均净资产收益率1.62%。（数据宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） 嘉美包装股价创出历史新高，截至9:37，该股上涨7.37%，股价报14.71元，成交量3148.48万股，成交金 额4.46亿元，换手率3.23%，该股最新A股总市值达144.48亿元，该股A股流通市值143.57亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，嘉美包装所属的轻工制造行业，目前整体涨幅为0.44%，行业内，目前股价 上涨的有109只，涨幅居前的有美克家居、嘉美包装、张小泉等，涨幅分别为9.97%、7.37%、5.43%。 股价下跌的有50只，跌幅居前的有喜临门、王子新材、太力科技等，跌幅分别为5.91%、4.59%、 1.97%。 ...

Company Performance - The company, Xidamen, has reached a historical high in stock price, increasing by 10.00% to 18.92 yuan, with a trading volume of 5.8675 million shares and a transaction amount of 110 million yuan [2] - For the first three quarters, the company reported a total operating revenue of 651 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.43% [2] - The net profit for the same period was 87.9309 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.16%, with basic earnings per share at 0.4600 yuan and a weighted average return on equity of 6.75% [2] Industry Overview - The light manufacturing industry, to which Xidamen belongs, has an overall increase of 0.40%, with 102 stocks rising and 3 stocks, including Xidamen, hitting the daily limit [2] - Among the stocks in the industry, 56 have seen declines, with the largest drops recorded by Shunhao Co., Jiangtian Technology, and Jinfutec, with declines of 8.07%, 3.49%, and 3.16% respectively [2]

个股方面，12月31日，有1168只个股获融资净买入，净买入金额在3000万元以上的有126股。其中，35 股获融资净买入额超1亿元。中国卫星获融资净买入额居首，净买入11.94亿元；融资净买入金额居前的 还有信维通信、航天电子、三花智控、万向钱潮、航天发展、兆易创新、天赐材料、顺灏股份等股。 Wind统计显示，12月31日，申万31个一级行业中有8个行业获融资净买入，其中，国防军工行业获融资 净买入额居首，当日净买入23.43亿元；获融资净买入居前的行业还有家用电器、传媒、轻工制造等。 ...

Market Overview - In 2025, the A-share market experienced a structural "small bull" market, with 4,110 out of 5,176 stocks showing positive growth, and 523 stocks rising over 100% [1] - However, 40 stocks fell over 30%, with 7 stocks declining more than 40% [1] Worst Performing Stocks - The largest decline was seen in Shijing Technology, which dropped 50.99% in 2025, primarily due to a significant decrease in completed orders after entering the photovoltaic sector [3] - Kangle Weishi ranked second with a decline of 49.97%, continuing to face losses since 2013, with a net profit loss of 2.29 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [3][4] - Longda Meishi experienced a 48.11% drop, affected by a prolonged downturn in the pig cycle and intensified competition in the prepared food sector [3] Financial Performance - Kangle Weishi reported a revenue of 1.2763 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 106.53%, but still faced a net profit loss of 2.29 billion yuan [4] - The food and beverage sector saw a 9.69% decline in 2025, marking its fifth consecutive year of losses, with a cumulative drop of over 50% since the peak in 2021 [8][10] Industry Trends - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector showed signs of recovery in 2025, with an 11.94% increase, ending a four-year downtrend [10] - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from macro policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, with potential recovery in the white liquor and pre-processed food segments [10][11]

沪深300今日主力资金净流出143.37亿元，创业板净流出119.46亿元。 | | | 各板块最近五个交易日主力资金净流入数据(亿元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 沪深300 | 创业板 | 科创板 | | 2025- 12- 31 | - 143. 37 | - 119. 46 | - 0. 68 | | 2025- 12- 30 | 3. 75 | - 78. 57 | - 9. 52 | | 2025- 12- 29 | - 142. 73 | - 183. 32 | - 21. 17 | | 2025- 12- 26 | - 54. 39 | - 133. 96 | - 20. 89 | | 2025- 12- 25 | - 79. 88 | - 51. 51 | - 16. 01 | | | | 尾盘资金净流入数据(亿元) | | | 2025- 12- 31 | - 19. 51 | - 22. 01 | 1. 27 | | 2025- 12- 30 | - 3. 77 | - 8. 87 | 1. 60 | | 2025- 12- 29 | - 2 ...