中金公司 风格偏向小盘成长 20250702 摘要 宏观预期差维度显示，PPI 不及预期和 CPI 超预期对股票市场构成负面 影响，债券市场影响中性，而工业增加值、汇率及 PMI 超预期利好商品 市场，表明不同资产类别受宏观数据影响差异显著。 左侧择时指标显示，股市多个指标触发看多信号，预示震荡上行；债券 市场过热风险显现；商品市场情绪、库存和开工率健康，走势乐观，为 资产配置提供参考。 股市阻力支撑模型显示市场底部存在支撑，预示未来可能上行，为投资 者提供信心。 行业轮动策略在当前较快轮动速度下，推荐综合、轻工制造、房地产、 建材、消费者服务和纺织服装等行业，这些行业可能在短期内表现突出。 风格层面，小盘成长风格在 7 月份预计更占优，成长风格优势明显，大 小盘优势略有下降，这与宏观环境（期限利差扩大、PPI 下降）和市场 状态（风格动量偏向成长）有关。 主动量化策略中，小盘类型策略表现最佳，显著优于中证 2000 和国证 2000 等小盘指数，景气成长型策略也表现良好，为投资者提供了超额 收益。 7 月份，景气成长型和小盘掘金类策略仍存在机会，尽管景气成长型策 略估值性价比有所降低，但资金拥挤度和风格组合 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The US Treasury market has a history of over 200 years, with significant events shaping its development, including the Civil War and the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system. The US bond market accounts for over 40% of the global market [2][3] - As of the end of 2024, the total US national debt is projected to reach $28.3 trillion, nearly doubling since 2017. The issuance of debt follows principles aimed at minimizing expected costs and providing predictable issuance guidance [2][3] - The trading of US Treasuries occurs mainly in Tokyo, London, and New York, with an average daily trading volume increasing by 1.8 times over the past decade. The investor structure is diverse, with overseas investors, the Federal Reserve, and money market funds accounting for about 60% of the market [3] - Long-term US Treasury yields are influenced by expected real rates, expected inflation, actual risk premiums, and inflation risk premiums. Recent data shows that the 10-year Treasury yield is slightly below last year's level, with a trend of first declining and then rising [3] Industry Research - The easing of US-China tariff issues is expected to support domestic exports, with a focus on companies with global layouts that will have competitive advantages [7][8] - H&M Group reported a 1% year-on-year increase in net sales for the first half of 2025, indicating resilience in the retail sector [7] - Xiaomi launched its first AI glasses, which are lighter and more suitable for Asian users compared to competitors. The Chinese smart glasses market is projected to reach 2.9 million units by 2025, with Xiaomi expected to capture 10% of the market share [8] - The light industry and textile sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.68 percentage points and 1.97 percentage points, respectively, during the week of June 23 to June 27 [7][8]

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20250701 预期高股息组合跟踪-20250630 2025 年 07 月 01 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 红利择时框架 2025 年 7 月观点：不再看多红利。 ◼ 2025 年 7 月组合最新持仓明细： | 序号 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 申万一级行业 | 建仓日期 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 601668.SH | 中国建筑 | 建筑装饰 | 2025/7/1 | 3.33% | | 2 | 603833.SH | 欧派家居 | 轻工制造 | 2025/7/1 | 3.33% | | 3 | 601838.SH | 成都银行 | 银行 | 2025/7/1 | 3.33% | | 4 | 000651.SZ | 格力电器 | 家用电器 | 2025/7/1 | 3.33% | | 5 | 601328.SH | 交通银行 | 银行 | 2025/7/1 | 3.33% | | 6 | 000157.SZ | 中联重科 | ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.59%, with 33 stocks reaching historical closing highs [1] - Among the tradable A-shares, 4,056 stocks increased in price, accounting for 75.04%, while 1,127 stocks decreased, making up 20.85% [1] - A total of 94 stocks hit the daily limit up, while 7 stocks hit the limit down [1] Historical Highs - Excluding newly listed stocks from the past year, 33 stocks closed at historical highs, with 14 from the main board, 14 from the ChiNext board, and 3 from the Sci-Tech Innovation board [1] - The sectors with the most stocks reaching historical highs included electronics, power equipment, and national defense, with 8, 4, and 4 stocks respectively [1] Stock Price Performance - Stocks that reached historical highs saw an average price increase of 7.34%, with notable limit-up stocks including Hopson Holdings, Aohong Electronics, and Great Wall Military Industry [1] - The average closing price of the stocks that hit historical highs was 47.32 yuan, with 3 stocks priced over 100 yuan and 7 stocks priced between 50 and 100 yuan [1] - The highest closing price was recorded by Shenghong Technology at 134.38 yuan, which increased by 1.42% [1] Capital Flow - The total net inflow of main funds into stocks reaching historical highs was 1.078 billion yuan, with 20 stocks experiencing net inflows [2] - The stocks with the highest net inflows included Sifang Precision, Haoshanghao, and Great Wall Military Industry, with net inflows of 381 million yuan, 348 million yuan, and 247 million yuan respectively [2] - Conversely, 11 stocks experienced net outflows, with Dongshan Precision, Jinlongyu, and Yema Battery seeing the largest outflows of 170 million yuan, 166 million yuan, and 7.129 million yuan respectively [2] Market Capitalization - The average total market capitalization of stocks reaching historical highs was 34.915 billion yuan, with an average circulating market capitalization of 31.703 billion yuan [2] - The stocks with the highest total market capitalization included Pudong Development Bank, New Yisheng, and Shenghong Technology, with market caps of 407.408 billion yuan, 126.046 billion yuan, and 115.928 billion yuan respectively [2] - The stocks with the lowest total market capitalization included Southeast Electronics and Yuanhang Precision, with market caps of 2.474 billion yuan and 3.061 billion yuan respectively [2] Innovation High Frequency - The ability to reach new highs is an indicator of stock strength, with Shenghong Technology achieving 10 new highs in the past month, followed by Pudong Development Bank, Taotao Automotive, and Jiangxin Home with 9, 9, and 8 new highs respectively [2]

主板ST股或将告别5%限制。 6月27日，沪深交易所均发布通知，拟调整主板风险警示股票价格涨跌幅限制比例，由目前的5%调整为 10%。 值得注意的是，上述通知尚处于征求意见阶段，反馈截止时间为2025年7月4日。 记者梳理发现，目前沪深主板风险警示股票合计有132只。 主板风险警示股涨跌幅拟调整为10% 可能涉及哪些股票？ 6月27日，沪深交易所发布公告称，为进一步完善股票交易制度，提升定价效率，维护市场交易秩序，保 护投资者合法权益，在中国证监会统筹指导下，起草了关于《调整主板风险警示股票价格涨跌幅限制比例 及有关事项的通知（征求意见稿）》（简称"征求意见稿"），拟将主板风险警示股票价格涨跌幅限制比例 由5%调整为10%，调整后与主板其他股票保持一致，现就有关安排向市场公开征求意见。 若最终按照征求意见稿中的相关规则变动施行，沪深主板风险警示股票价格涨跌幅限制比例，将统一变为 10%。 记者梳理发现，截至目前，沪深主板风险警示股票目前合计有132只。需要说明的是，因后续可能会有主 板风险警示股票"摘星脱帽"，或者有新的主板股票被实施风险警示，相关股票名单还会出现变动。 目前主板风险警示股票有何特点？ 上述主 ...

Core Viewpoint - The revenue growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size has shown fluctuations, with a significant decline in profit margins, indicating a challenging economic environment and potential investment risks [1][9][10]. Revenue Growth - In the first five months of the year, the cumulative revenue growth rate for industrial enterprises was 2.7%, down from 3.2% in the previous period, with May's month-on-month growth dropping to 0.8% [7][8][10]. - The revenue growth experienced a rebound in January and February, followed by a decline in April and May, reflecting a typical economic nominal growth pattern with insufficient growth momentum [1][7]. Profit Margins - The profit margin change was more pronounced than revenue, with May's profit declining by 9.1%, the lowest since October of the previous year, leading to a cumulative profit decline of 1.1% for the first five months [9][10][11]. - The profit growth rate turned negative again in May after briefly turning positive in March, indicating a volatile profit environment [9][10]. Industry Performance Fastest Growing Industries - Equipment manufacturing, particularly in transportation equipment (56%), general equipment (10.6%), and specialized equipment (7.1%), showed significant profit growth [15][16]. - The aerospace sector, including aircraft manufacturing (120.7%) and related equipment, also reported high profit growth rates [15][16]. - Non-ferrous metal mining and smelting industries saw profit increases of 41.7% and 9.8%, respectively, likely due to rising upstream prices and demand from emerging industries [15][16]. Slowest Growing Industries - The upstream mining sector, textile and apparel industries, and durable consumer goods (automobiles and furniture) experienced the lowest profit growth rates, with coal profits down by 50.6% and automotive profits down by 11.9% [19][20]. - The decline in profits for these sectors is attributed to falling commodity prices and weak domestic demand [19][20]. Profit Structure - The profit structure remains concentrated in midstream manufacturing, with equipment manufacturing accounting for 33.4% of incremental profits, up 3.6 percentage points from the previous year [20][24]. - Public utilities and raw materials industries also saw profit shares increase, indicating a shift in profit distribution within the industrial sector [20][24]. Inventory and Debt - As of the end of May, nominal inventory showed a slight decrease, while actual inventory rose by 6.8%, indicating a mismatch between supply and demand [28]. - The asset-liability ratio for industrial enterprises was 57.7%, with a slight increase year-on-year, reflecting a cautious approach to capital expenditure amid weak demand [30].

流动性增量预期较强，估值端存在明显支撑——A 股市场 2025 年下半年投资 策略报告 基金研究 市场结构分化，主动权益基金收益跑赢指数——公募基金 2025 年半年度投资 策略 金融工程研究 主要指数全部上涨，两融余额小幅下降——融资融券周报 晨会纪要（2025/06/27） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.06.27） 宏观及策略研究 证 行业研究 券 聚焦内需视角下，关注以旧换新与新消费投资机会——轻工制造&纺织服饰 2025 年半年度投资策略报告 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2025/06/27） 宏观及策略研究 流动性增量预期较强，估值端存在明显支撑——A 股市场 2025 年下半年投资策略报告 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S115012403000 ...

Table_First|Table_Summary 华福证券 固收定期研究 2025 年 6 月 22 日 如何看近期转债信用面变动 ➢ 如何看近期转债信用面变动 近期进入转债评级调整的密集披露期，若转债评级被下调个券卖压或增强；但评级调整 期结束后，未被评级下调的弱资质转债，若25年信用出现一定的优化，那么债底的修复 或支撑转债价格上升；我们认为转债6月-7月信用挖掘策略具有较强的性价比，投资者 一方面需要跟踪转债评级下调的可能，另一方面跟踪近期个券财务情况边际变化，预测 个券25年信用的变动方向。我们认为转债评级主要评估24年的财务变动和信用情况，通 过定量和定性的分析得到最新的评级结果，但是转债信用挖掘的预期差在于个券25年及 未来信用情况的定价，这方面评级结果解释力度或相对有限。 我们构建了转债信用评分模型，跟踪转债25年Q1的信用情况变动，观察哪些转债在财务 指标和信用资质上有边际优化，通过个券的信用变动分析中观行业层面的信用变动。转 债信用评分模型与转债信用评级互为补充，为投资者分析转债近期信用变动情况和构建 信用挖掘策略提供参考。 信用评分共包含6个维度：规模水平、营运能力、盈利能力、景气度、杠 ...

轻工制造行业资金流出榜 主力资金净流出的行业有28个，电子行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金54.08亿元，其次 是非银金融行业，净流出资金为48.07亿元，净流出资金较多的还有医药生物、计算机、国防军工等行 业。 轻工制造行业今日下跌1.96%，全天主力资金净流出6.40亿元，该行业所属的个股共156只，今日上涨的 有14只，涨停的有1只；下跌的有141只，跌停的有3只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入 的个股有41只，净流入资金居首的是鸿博股份，今日净流入资金8508.48万元，紧随其后的是王力安 防、安妮股份，净流入资金分别为5596.10万元、4752.43万元。轻工制造行业资金净流出个股中，资金 净流出超3000万元的有5只，净流出资金居前的有王子新材、英派斯、创源股份，净流出资金分别为 7954.33万元、5854.14万元、4684.37万元。（数据宝） 轻工制造行业资金流入榜 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002229 | 鸿博股份 | 3.12 ...

【博时市场点评6月19日】风险偏好收敛，沪深两市调整 6月19日，A股三大指数下跌。截至收盘，上证指数报3362.11点，下跌0.79%；深证成指报10051.97点， 下跌1.21%；创业板指报2026.82点，下跌1.36%；科创100报1022.12点，下跌0.46%。申万一级行业中， 仅石油石化上涨，涨幅为0.86%；纺织服饰、美容护理、轻工制造跌幅靠前，分别下跌2.36%、2.28%、 1.96%。699只个股上涨，4471只个股下跌。 简评：通过深化科创板改革"1+6"政策措施，重启未盈利企业适用科创板第五套标准上市，未盈利的优 质企业可在成长层渡过研发高风险期，盈利达标后转至科创板主层或主板，从而对科创企业形成全生命 周期的资本市场多层次支持链条，有助于提振科创企业发展信心，避免优质企业因盈利门槛外流，促进 资本市场各板块良性互动。 美联储公布6月利率决议，将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.50%不变，连续第四次会议按兵不动，符合市场预 期。美联储表示，对前景的不确定性已减弱，但仍然处于较高水平。美联储将2025年GDP预估下调至 1.4%，同时将通胀预期上调至3%。另外，美联储点阵图显示，202 ...