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【私募调研记录】保银投资调研驰宏锌锗
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-04 00:13
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights that Chihong Zn & Ge Co., Ltd. is expected to benefit from a relaxed supply of zinc concentrate in the first half of 2025, leading to increased processing fees and reduced production costs in the smelting segment, thereby enhancing profit margins [1] - The company is committed to maintaining industry-leading costs for lead, zinc concentrates, and smelting products through management optimization and technological advancements [1] - Chihong Zn & Ge plans to deepen its focus on lead, zinc, and germanium core businesses, strategically plan capacity layout, and continuously expand resource reserves through internal resource accumulation and external acquisitions to enhance sustainable development capabilities [1] Group 2 - The company has committed to an annual cash dividend of no less than 30% of the distributable profit, with a cumulative minimum of 40% over three years [1] - The production recovery timeline for Weize Mining and Rongda Mining remains uncertain, but the company will continue to optimize production and increase output [1] - The company has integrated market value management goals into its performance assessment indicators, emphasizing the importance of market value management [1]
才发文庆祝“重大突破”,转眼自愿放弃,华锡有色近1.26亿元竞拍探矿权拍了个寂寞?
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-07-03 15:39
Core Viewpoint - The company, Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, has voluntarily given up its recently acquired mining exploration rights due to overlapping issues with an upcoming railway project, which was unknown at the time of bidding [1][2][4]. Group 1: Acquisition and Significance - Huaxi Nonferrous Metals' subsidiary, Guangxi 215 Geological Team, won the bidding for the mining exploration rights for the Zhaiping lead-zinc mine in Hechi City for nearly 1.26 billion yuan, marking the company's first market-based acquisition of exploration rights [1][2]. - The acquisition was seen as a significant milestone for the company, enhancing its resource control capabilities and sustainable development [2]. Group 2: Withdrawal and Reasons - On July 3, the company announced its decision to abandon the exploration rights and requested a refund of the 1 million yuan deposit due to the discovery that the exploration area overlaps with the design route of the Gui-Gui Railway, which cannot be adjusted [1][3]. - The company stated that it was unaware of the overlapping issue at the time of the bidding process, which has now posed a significant disadvantage to its future exploration and related activities [4]. Group 3: Regulatory Context - The exploration rights were subject to regulations that require bidders to be aware of existing or planned infrastructure, such as railways, and to avoid conflicts during exploration [5]. - The Gui-Gui Railway project had already passed the land use pre-examination by the State Council in December of the previous year, indicating that the railway's planning was established prior to the bidding [4].
锌:基本面偏承压
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 02:38
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc industry investment trend is偏弱, with a trend intensity of -1 [2][3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of zinc are under pressure [1] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,255 yuan/ton, down 1.07%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,741 dollars/ton, down 1.35%. The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 178,683 lots, an increase of 17,759 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 12,088 lots, a decrease of 377 lots [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 6,824 tons, a decrease of 253 tons; LME zinc inventory was 114,900 tons, a decrease of 2,575 tons [1] - **Premium and Discount**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was 35 yuan/ton, unchanged; LME CASH - 3M premium was -10.23 dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.23 dollars/ton [1] 2. News - On June 25th, the 6000t/d beneficiation expansion and renovation project (beneficiation part) of Panlong Lead - Zinc Mine of Guangxi Zhongjin Lingnan Mining Co., Ltd. started. After completion, it will achieve an annual ore - processing capacity of 1.98 million tons and an annual lead - zinc metal output of 60,000 tons [2]
铅锌日评20250702:区间整理-20250702
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 02:22
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For lead, on the previous trading day, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.15% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract dropped by 0.58%. With no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, processing fees are likely to rise. The operation of primary lead is stable with a slight increase, while the operation of secondary lead is at a relatively low level due to rising scrap lead - acid battery prices and limited raw materials. The demand is gradually shifting from the off - season to the peak season, and the drag on lead prices may slow down. However, due to the inventory accumulation risk, the upward momentum of lead prices is limited [1]. - For zinc, on the previous trading day, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.94% compared to the previous day, and the main Shanghai zinc contract closed down 1.07%. Refineries have sufficient raw material reserves, zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, and the output is showing an increasing trend. The demand is weak, and most downstream enterprises only replenish inventory as needed. Recently, zinc prices have rebounded due to positive macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances, but the rebound space is limited, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the elimination of favorable factors [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Market Data Lead - SMM1 lead ingot average price: 16,925.00 yuan/ton, - 0.15% [1] - Shanghai lead futures - spot price (main contract closing price): 17,100.00 yuan/ton, - 0.58% [1] - Shanghai lead basis: - 175.00 yuan/ton, + 75.00 [1] - LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading): 2,039.00 US dollars/ton, - 0.12% [1] - Shanghai - London lead price ratio: 8.39, - 0.46% [1] Zinc - SMM1 zinc ingot average price: 22,210.00 yuan/ton, - 0.94% [1] - Shanghai zinc futures - spot price (main contract closing price): 22,255.00 yuan/ton, - 1.07% [1] - Shanghai zinc basis: - 45.00 yuan/ton, + 30.00 [1] - LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading): 2,713.50 US dollars/ton, - 1.00% [1] - Shanghai - London zinc price ratio: 8.20, - 0.06% [1] 2. Inventory Data Lead - LME inventory: 270,075.00 tons, 0.00% [1] - Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory: 46,389.00 tons, + 0.22% [1] Zinc - LME inventory: 114,900.00 tons, 0.00% [1] - Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory: 6,824.00 tons, - 3.57% [1] 3. Trading Volume and Open Interest Data Lead - Futures active contract trading volume: 31,387.00 lots, - 2.89% [1] - Futures active contract open interest: 51,411.00 lots, + 0.01% [1] - Trading volume - open interest ratio: 0.61, - 2.90% [1] Zinc - Futures active contract trading volume: 178,683.00 lots, + 11.04% [1] - Futures active contract open interest: 134,433.00 lots, - 4.10% [1] - Trading volume - open interest ratio: 1.33, + 15.79% [1] 4. Industry News Lead - Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce and other eight departments issued the "Implementation Rules for the Replacement Subsidy of Electric Bicycles in Shanghai in 2025". From July 1 to December 31, 2025, individual consumers who trade in old electric bicycles (including batteries) for new ones will receive a one - time 500 - yuan subsidy, and an additional 100 - yuan subsidy for those who trade in for lead - acid battery electric bicycles [1] - Nandu Power signed a 1.4GWh energy storage system supply contract for a large - scale new - energy photovoltaic project in India [1] Zinc - In April 2025, Peru's zinc concentrate production was 137,600 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.3%, and the total production from January to April was 458,300 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [1] - A mine in southwest China's zinc ore tender price in July was 3,770 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month increase of 170 yuan/metal ton [1] - Nexa's Cajamarquilla smelter resumed full - scale operation with normal capacity utilization after a three - day shutdown [1]
铅锌日评:反弹持续性有限-20250630
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 05:36
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The rebound of lead and zinc prices has limited sustainability. For lead, although the price has been rising due to raw material and production cuts in secondary lead, the downstream has not entered the peak season, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation, which restricts the upward momentum. For zinc, although the price has rebounded due to positive macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances, the rebound may suppress downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and the rebound space is expected to be limited [1]. Summary by Related Information Lead - related Information - **Price and Market Indicators**: On June 30, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,000 yuan/ton with no change; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai lead was 17,125 yuan/ton, down 0.58%; the Shanghai lead basis was - 125 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 40,650 lots, down 22.78%; the open interest was 51,800 lots, up 1.21%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.78, down 23.70%; the LME inventory was 273,425 tons with no change; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 45,885 tons, up 1.34%; the closing price of LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic trading) was 2,041.50 dollars/ton, up 0.15%; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.39, down 0.73% [1]. - **Enterprise Operating Rates**: From June 21 to June 27, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 66.21%, down 3.8 percentage points month - on - month; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 34.6%, up 4.9 percentage points month - on - month; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 68.77%, down 4.05 percentage points month - on - month [1]. - **Enterprise Output**: According to Tibet珠峰's 2024 annual report, the total output of lead, zinc, and copper concentrate products was 93,700 tons, including 45,100 tons of lead metal (up 19.22% year - on - year), 47,500 tons of zinc metal (up 5.39% year - on - year), 1,149 tons of copper metal (up 28.99% year - on - year), and 74.27 tons of silver metal [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. The operation of primary lead is stable with a slight increase. For secondary lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries has been rising, raw materials are in short supply, and some refineries have cut or stopped production. The demand side is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream purchasing is expected to improve, but there is still a risk of inventory accumulation [1]. Zinc - related Information - **Price and Market Indicators**: On June 30, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,500 yuan/ton, up 1.40%; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai zinc was 22,410 yuan/ton, up 0.76%; the Shanghai zinc basis was 140 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 225,824 lots, up 34.33%; the open interest was 142,428 lots, up 5.01%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 1.59, up 27.93%; the LME inventory was 119,225 tons with no change; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 6,372 tons, down 1.56%; the closing price of LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic trading) was 2,778.50 dollars/ton, up 0.31%; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.07, up 0.46% [1]. - **Enterprise Operating Rates**: From June 21 to June 27, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 56.21%, down 2.39 percentage points month - on - month; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 46.54%, down 8.58 percentage points month - on - month; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 58.72%, down 0.28 percentage points month - on - month [1]. - **Supply - side News**: In July, a zinc mine in North China plans to conduct maintenance for about 10 days, which will affect about 1,500 metal tons of zinc concentrate; as of June 27, the total inventory of zinc concentrate at major Chinese ports was 313,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Refineries have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The tight supply of zinc concentrate has improved, the restriction on refinery production due to raw material shortages has weakened, and the cost - side support has decreased. The demand side is weak, and downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed [1].
铅锌日评:沪铅宽幅整理,沪锌反弹空间有限-20250617
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 02:01
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a short - allocation view on zinc [1] Core Viewpoints - For lead, although downstream has not entered the peak season and there is a risk of inventory accumulation, the continuous shortage of waste batteries, increased losses of secondary lead smelters, and high uncertainty in production start - up provide strong support for lead prices. Future attention should be paid to the improvement of demand and macro - uncertainty factors [1] - For zinc, although the recent macro sentiment has warmed up, and downstream spot trading has improved after the zinc price decline, considering the supply - side suppression and inventory accumulation expectations, the rebound space of zinc prices is limited, and the short - allocation view is still maintained [1] Summary by Related Content Lead Market - **Price and Market Data**: On June 17, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,750 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 16,980 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 7.56% to 30,240 lots, and the open interest decreased by 3.55% to 42,057 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 263,475 tons, while the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2.88% to 45,503 tons [1] - **Supply**: In Q1 2025, overseas lead concentrate production was about 588,000 mt, down 1.8% year - on - year and 6.1% quarter - on - quarter. Australia and North America contributed the most to the decline. It is expected that overseas lead concentrate production will slightly recover in Q2 [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 16, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in five locations was 56,400 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from June 9 and 1,600 tons from June 12 [1] - **Fundamentals**: Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase. Secondary lead smelters face raw material shortages and cost - price inversions, resulting in reduced production and increased finished product inventory. The demand side is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream procurement is expected to improve [1] Zinc Market - **Price and Market Data**: On June 17, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 21,930 yuan/ton, down 1.08% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 21,840 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 14.17% to 163,962 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5.60% to 116,264 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 130,225 tons, while the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 11.08% to 9,966 tons [1] - **Supply News**: On June 16, Australian mining company Polymetals Resources Ltd announced that its Endeavor silver - zinc mine in the Cobar region of New South Wales had achieved commercial production. It is expected to produce about 20,000 mt of zinc concentrate in 2025 [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 16, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven locations was 78,100 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from June 9 and an increase of 1,000 tons from June 12 [1] - **Fundamentals**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The supply shortage of zinc concentrate has improved, and the production limit on smelters has weakened. The demand side is in the off - season, but downstream procurement has improved after the zinc price decline. However, the zinc price rebound space is limited due to supply - side suppression and inventory accumulation expectations [1]
金属铅概念下跌0.71%,主力资金净流出23股
Group 1 - The metal lead concept declined by 0.71%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with companies like Hengbang Co., Chifeng Gold, and Hunan Gold experiencing significant drops [1][2] - Among the metal lead concept stocks, ST Shengtun, Yuehongyuan A, and Western Mining saw increases of 2.39%, 1.28%, and 0.97% respectively [1][2] - The metal lead concept experienced a net outflow of 690 million yuan from main funds today, with 23 stocks seeing outflows, and 5 stocks with outflows exceeding 50 million yuan [2][3] Group 2 - Zijin Mining led the outflow with a net outflow of 168 million yuan, followed by Chifeng Gold and Hunan Gold with outflows of 158 million yuan and 145 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The stocks with the highest net inflows included ST Shengtun, Western Mining, and Gao Neng Environment, with inflows of 51.64 million yuan, 36.74 million yuan, and 8.52 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The trading volume for the metal lead concept stocks showed significant turnover rates, with Hengbang Co. at 7.37% and Chifeng Gold at 4.26% [2][3]
铅锌日评:沪铅下方支撑较强,沪锌反弹空间有限-20250612
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 05:14
Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For lead, although downstream is in the off - season with high inventory accumulation risk, due to the continuous shortage of waste batteries, increased losses of secondary lead smelters, and high uncertainty in production, lead prices may rebound in the short term. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of cost support and macro - uncertainty factors [1]. - For zinc, despite the recent improvement in macro - sentiment and better spot trading after the price decline, considering the supply - side suppression and inventory build - up expectations, the rebound space of zinc prices is limited, and a short - position allocation strategy is still recommended [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,625 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the futures main contract closed at 16,845 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from the previous day; the basis was - 220 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 21,724 lots, down 40.01%; the open interest was 43,989 lots, up 0.05% [1]. - LME3 - month lead futures closed at 1,993.5 dollars/ton, up 0.30%; the ratio of Shanghai - London lead prices was 8.45, down 0.51% [1]. News and Production - An east - China secondary lead smelter plans to resume production at the end of June, and raw material procurement may resume one week before the furnace starts [1]. - A south - west primary lead smelter plans a one - week maintenance starting in late June, with an expected daily lead ingot output reduction of about 300 tons, but the monthly output is expected to be unaffected [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase; secondary lead production is at a relatively low level due to rising waste battery prices, limited raw materials, and high costs; demand is weak in the off - season, providing limited support for lead prices [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,230 yuan/ton, up 0.63%; the futures main contract closed at 22,140 yuan/ton, up 1.35%; the basis was 90 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 170,227 lots, up 7.31%; the open interest was 125,779 lots, down 6.88% [1]. - LME3 - month zinc futures closed at 2,651 dollars/ton, down 0.28%; the ratio of Shanghai - London zinc prices was 8.35, up 1.64% [1]. News and Resource - Xingye Yinxi Mining Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary's silver mine resource reserve verification report was approved, with silver reserves increasing from 859.8 tons to 11,114 tons, and associated metals' resources also increasing [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and the raw material shortage situation has improved, with cost support weakening and production increasing; demand is in the off - season, and considering environmental inspections, the start - up rate is expected to decline this week [1].
铅锌产业链周度报告-20250606
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 10:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc price's box - style oscillation pattern awaits a breakthrough, while the lead price is expected to remain volatile. Attention should be focused on the price trend of waste batteries [4][64]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Report Abstract - The US ADP employment increase in a certain month was 1.37 million, lower than the expected 1.5 million and the previous value of 2.625 million, reaching the lowest level in years. The market focused on this data [4]. - China's manufacturing PMI in a certain month was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the critical point. It was the first time to fall below the critical point in a certain period [4]. - The European Central Bank mentioned continued small - scale interest rate cuts, and countries would increase investment in national defense and infrastructure, providing support on a broader macro - level [4]. - The China Zinc Raw Material Joint Negotiation (Coordination) Group announced the guidance price range for imported zinc concentrate procurement fees in the third quarter of 2025 [4]. - The supply of zinc raw materials remained loose, and the zinc ingot output might have a large - scale increase. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly, and the low inventory supported the zinc price [4]. - The supply of recycled lead was unstable, and the inventory of lead ingots in the national market increased. The consumption of waste batteries was weak, and the lead price was expected to remain volatile [4]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus 3.2.1 Multi - and Short - Factors Analysis (Zinc) - Bullish factors: The output of domestic and foreign zinc mines may accelerate in June, and the zinc ingot output ratio may have a large - scale increase, and the social inventory has decreased [7]. - Bearish factors: The consumption end is weak [7]. 3.2.2 Multi - and Short - Factors Analysis (Lead) - Bullish factors: The supply of recycled lead is still unstable [10]. - Bearish factors: The operating rate of primary lead enterprises is high, the price of waste batteries is running weakly, and the off - season consumption has not improved significantly [10]. 3.3 Data Analysis 3.3.1 Zinc - Related Data - In April, China's zinc ore concentrate imports were 494,662.21 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 37.64% and a year - on - year increase of 72.63%. The supply from major countries increased, and Australia became the top supplier [12]. - In June, the average domestic zinc concentrate TC increased by 150 yuan/metal ton to 3,650 yuan/metal ton, and the average imported ore TC increased by 10 dollars/dry ton to 55 dollars/dry ton. The China Zinc Raw Material Joint Negotiation (Coordination) Group released the guidance price range for imported zinc concentrate procurement fees [15]. - The price of zinc concentrate slightly increased. The price of 50% zinc concentrate in Hechi was 17,930 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous week; in Chenzhou, it was 17,700 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous week [20]. - In April, China's refined zinc output was 576,000 tons, down 39,000 tons from March, with a year - on - year slight increase of 0.3%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 2.333 million tons, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.9%. Due to the increase in zinc ore processing fees, the smelter's production profit was repaired [23]. - In April, refined zinc imports were 28,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.66%. From January to April, the cumulative imports were 129,200 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 9.44% [26]. - Policies such as the new energy vehicle countryside campaign and urban renewal were introduced, which may have an impact on the consumption of zinc in related industries [30]. - As of June 5, the LME zinc inventory was 137,150 tons, down 1.44% from the previous week. The SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 4% to 42,310 tons in the week of May 30. As of June 5, the zinc ingot inventory in the national main markets was 58,300 tons, down 900 tons from June 3 [33]. 3.3.2 Lead - Related Data - This week, the lead futures and spot prices rebounded after hitting the bottom. The basis was 55 yuan/ton, and the premium range narrowed. The price difference between 1 lead and recycled refined lead was 110 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous week [38]. - The weekly price of 60% lead concentrate in Kunming decreased by 257 yuan/ton, and in Baoji, it decreased by 251 yuan/ton. As of May 30, the lead concentrate processing fees in different regions changed, with some decreasing and some increasing [42]. - In April 2025, the lead concentrate imports were 111,046 physical tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 22.1%. As of 2025, the cumulative lead concentrate imports were about 448,700 physical tons, with a year - on - year increase of 41%. In April, the refined lead imports were 4,734 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 65% [46]. - In April 2025, China's lead output was 664,000 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 1%. Both primary lead and recycled lead production decreased in April, but some enterprises resumed production in May [48]. - The operating rate of primary lead increased by 5.98 percentage points to 66.26%. The operating rate of recycled lead enterprises increased by 10.94 percentage points to 62.91%, and the operating rate of lead batteries increased by 1.99 percentage points to 74.34% [51][53][57]. - Last week, the LME lead inventory decreased after a large - scale increase, and the SHFE lead inventory decreased by 3.98% to 46,500 tons in the week of May 30. As of June 5, the national main market lead ingot social inventory was 50,800 tons, up 3,900 tons from June 3 [61]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The zinc price's box - style oscillation pattern awaits a breakthrough; the lead price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to the price trend of waste batteries [64].
海外铅锌矿企业季度运营分析:锌矿放量预期不变,铅矿紧缺隐忧已现
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-02 09:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc: Bearish; Lead: Sideways [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - In Q1 2025, overseas zinc concentrate production increased year - on - year, while lead concentrate production decreased. The zinc smelting industry is expected to see increased supply in Q2, but the lead market has uncertainties due to production disruptions. In June, lead and zinc prices will be demand - driven. For zinc, short - term oversupply is expected, and for lead, the market is in a bearish pattern [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event Overview - Recently, overseas leading mining companies announced their Q1 2025 production. Some adjusted their 2025 production guidance. The report statistics cover 30 overseas leading mining companies, with the sample proportion of zinc concentrate rising from 60% to about 65% and that of lead concentrate from 40% to 49% [11]. 3.2 Zinc Concentrate and Lead Concentrate Production - **Zinc Concentrate**: In Q1 2025, overseas sample zinc concentrate production was 1.312 million metric tons, a 6.4% year - on - year increase and a 4% quarter - on - quarter decrease. The increase was due to large - scale project restarts, new project ramp - ups, higher grades and recoveries, a low base in the previous year, and fewer disruptions. The decrease was due to seasonal factors and end - of - year production rushes [12]. - **Lead Concentrate**: In Q1 2025, overseas sample lead concentrate production was 300,000 metric tons, a 4.4% year - on - year decrease and a 9.2% quarter - on - quarter decrease. The decline was mainly due to lower ore grades, external disruptions, and reduced operational efficiency [13]. 3.3 Production Changes and Factors of Individual Mining Companies - **Zinc Concentrate**: The top five companies with year - on - year production increases were Ivanhoe, Vedanta, Boliden, Group Mexico, and Sibanye - Stillwater. The top five with decreases were Teck, NEXA, Peñoles, MMG, and South32. The increase was mainly due to large - scale project restarts, new project ramp - ups, higher grades and recoveries, etc. The decrease was due to lower grades, external disruptions, and reduced operational efficiency [27][29]. - **Lead Concentrate**: Companies including Volcan, Glencore, Vedanta, Pan American Silver, and Silvercrop contributed to the year - on - year increase, while South32, Newmont, Aurelia Metals, NEXA, and MMG contributed to the decrease [27]. 3.4 Zinc Mine Costs - The 90% cash cost quantile of zinc mines in 2025 is $1,993/ton, a 9.3% year - on - year decrease. Although the LME zinc price has declined, the mining end still has sufficient profits. Different companies' cost changes vary due to factors such as mining costs, processing fees, and by - product contributions [47]. 3.5 Production Guidance - Among 13 leading mining companies, only South32 slightly lowered its annual production guidance in Q1. The total 2025 production is expected to be between 2.839 and 3.1 million metric tons, a 4.7% year - on - year increase. Some projects are expected to increase production, while others may continue to face production declines [48][50]. 3.6 TC Views and Investment Recommendations - **Zinc Concentrate TC**: There may be a slight upward space in Q2 2025, but in the second half of the year, upward movement may be restricted or even decline slightly due to factors such as domestic seasonal production increases, bearish zinc price expectations, and potential overseas production shortfalls. - **Lead Concentrate TC**: Overseas production is expected to increase slightly in Q2 2025, but domestic imports may be limited, and there is a downward expectation for the medium - term TC. - **Investment Strategy**: For zinc, in June, it is recommended to short on rallies on a medium - term basis and maintain a long - short arbitrage strategy between domestic and overseas markets. For lead, it is recommended to look for medium - term long opportunities after demand reaches a low point [52][53].