Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth in China's sugar production, with a projected output of 37.7 million tons in May 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 59.1% [1] - From January to May 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China reached 906.6 million tons, showing a cumulative growth of 4.9% [1] Group 2 - The article references several listed companies in the sugar industry, including Huazi Industrial (600191), Yuegui Co., Ltd. (000833), Guannong Co., Ltd. (600251), COFCO Sugar Industry (600737), Jinhui Industrial (002597), Guangnong Sugar Industry (000911), and Hainan Yedao (600238) [1] - The data is sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics and compiled by Zhiyan Consulting, which is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, providing comprehensive industry research reports and consulting services [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract decreased with a weekly decline of about 1.43%. Internationally, in the second half of August 2025, sugar production data in southern Brazil generally met expectations, and the sugar production progress accelerated. Domestically, in August 2025, China's sugar imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. With the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking mostly completed, northern sugar mills about to start production, and a slight expected increase in sugar production in the new season, the spot price is weakening steadily. There is no obvious positive driving force in the short term, so it is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.43% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: In Brazil, in the second half of August 2025, 50.06 million tons of sugarcane were crushed, a year - on - year increase of 10.686%, and 3.87 million tons of sugar were produced, a year - on - year increase of 18.21%. In China, in August 2025, sugar imports were 830,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 90,000 tons or 12.16%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. With the end of Mid - Autumn Festival stocking, northern sugar mills about to start production, and a slight expected increase in new - season sugar production, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [5]. - **Future Focus**: Domestic production and sales, and new - season output [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **ICE US Sugar**: The price of the US Sugar March contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 2.42%. As of September 9, 2025, the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar futures was 139,610 lots, an increase of 53,805 lots from the previous week. Long positions decreased by 14,220 lots to 170,080 lots, and short positions increased by 39,585 lots to 309,690 lots [12]. - **International Raw Sugar Spot Price**: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 16.15 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.19 cents per pound from last week [16]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.43%. The net position of the top 20 futures holders was - 73,276 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou Sugar warehouse receipts was 10,364 [17][24]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures Spread and Basis**: The spread between the 1 - 5 contracts of Zhengzhou Sugar futures was + 15 yuan per ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou Sugar basis was + 479 yuan per ton [29]. - **Spot Market Price**: As of September 19, the price of sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,940 yuan per ton, and the spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,850 yuan per ton [36]. - **Imported Sugar Cost and Profit**: This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,527 yuan per ton, a decrease of 45 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 143 yuan per ton, a decrease of 61 yuan per ton from last week. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,381 yuan per ton, an increase of 1 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 197 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1 yuan per ton from last week [42]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - Production**: As of the end of August 2025, the total sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season in China was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% [45]. - **Supply - Industrial Inventory**: As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 450,000 tons or 27.91%, and a year - on - year increase of 60,100 tons or 5.45% [48]. - **Supply - Import Volume**: In August 2025, China's sugar imports were 830,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15% and a month - on - month increase of 90,000 tons. From January to August 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 2.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.15% [52]. - **Demand - Sales Rate**: As of the end of August 2025, all sugar mills in the 2024/25 sugar - pressing season had stopped production. The total sugar production in this sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. The cumulative sugar sales were 9.9998 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1388 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 89.59%, 0.65 percentage points faster than the same period last year [56]. - **Demand - Production of Finished Sugar and Soft Drinks**: In August 2025, China's monthly production of finished sugar was 454,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 49.3%. The monthly production of soft drinks was 17.7578 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5% [60]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Markets - **Option Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar this week is presented, but no specific data is given in the summary part [61]. - **Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry**: A chart of the price - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, but no specific data is summarized [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International market: Brazil is in the supply peak, and the global inventory is entering the accumulation phase. Although the recent increase in Brazilian sugar production has a bearish impact on the price, considering the current low international sugar price and the fact that the bearish factors have basically materialized, and the Brazilian ethanol - to - sugar price has reached 16.14 cents per pound, there is strong support for low - price sugar, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [4]. - Domestic market: In August, China's sugar imports remained high, domestic sugar inventory was low, and the sales - to - production ratio was high. The domestic market is greatly affected by the trend of foreign sugar. Both foreign and Zhengzhou sugar are at low levels, and domestic sugar inventory is low with a firm basis. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will likely fluctuate within a range and rebound in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - side trading**: The foreign sugar price has fallen to a low level and is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. The Zhengzhou sugar price has also fallen to a low level, with limited downward space. However, if Zhengzhou sugar increases in positions and breaks through the previous low, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [4]. - **Options**: Wait and see [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Supply - Demand Pattern Change** - In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the global sugar supply gap will be significantly reduced to 231,000 tons compared with 4.879 million tons in the 2024/25 season. Global sugar production is expected to reach 180.593 million tons, an increase of 5.419 million tons from the previous season, mainly due to the production growth in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. Global consumption is expected to reach 180.824 million tons, an increase of 771,000 tons. The global sugar trade volume is expected to remain stable, with an export volume of 63.89 million tons and an import demand of 63.768 million tons. The ending inventory/consumption ratio is expected to drop to 50.95%, about 10% lower than six seasons ago [6]. - **Brazilian Sugar Production Situation** - **Double - week situation in the second half of August**: In the second half of August, the sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region of Brazil increased. The cane crushing volume was 50.061 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.68%; the sugar - making ratio was 54.2%, a year - on - year increase of 5.42%; the sugar production was 3.872 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.21% [10]. - **Accumulated situation by the second half of August**: The accumulated cane crushing volume was 403.942 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.78%; the accumulated sugar - making ratio was 52.76%, a year - on - year increase of 3.67%; the accumulated sugar production was 26.759 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.92%, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. The Brazilian ethanol - to - sugar price has reached 16.14 cents per pound, providing strong support for the raw sugar price [17]. - **Situation in Other Countries** - **Thailand**: In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the sugar production was 10.05 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons), and exports from January to June 2025 were 3.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 820,000 tons. The 2025/26 season is expected to see a slight increase in production [20]. - **India**: In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the sugar production was about 26.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. The 2025/26 season is expected to have a restorative increase in production, with an estimated total production of 34.9 million tons. After meeting domestic consumption of 28.4 million tons, there will be a surplus of about 12 million tons (including 5.5 million tons of carry - over inventory). Even if 5 million tons of sugar are used for ethanol production, the net sugar production will still reach 29.9 million tons, and about 7 million tons will be carried over as ending inventory. This season may export about 2 million tons of sugar [23]. - **Domestic Sugar Market Situation** - **Domestic sugar production in the 2025/26 season**: The domestic sugar is in an increasing production cycle, with an expected production of about 11 million tons. The first sugar factory in Inner Mongolia started production on September 8, 4 days earlier than the previous year. The estimated sugar production in Inner Mongolia in the 2025/26 season is 700,000 - 750,000 tons. In Yunnan, about 51 - 52 sugar factories are expected to start production in the 2025/26 season, with the first factory likely to start in mid - to - late October if there are no special circumstances [27]. - **Import situation**: The import profit is rising, driving a strong import expectation. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 62,700 tons. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import was 2.6121 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 121,000 tons, or 4.86%. As of August in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative import was 4.0739 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 277,200 tons, or 6.37% [38]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Not provided in the given content, only some data charts are presented, and no specific analysis or summary content is available.

Group 1 - The current spot price of white sugar in Guangxi is 5764 CNY/ton, down by 13 CNY/ton, with processing sugar factory prices stable between 5950 to 6090 CNY/ton [1] - The futures market shows the main white sugar contract closing at 5474.00 CNY/ton, with a decline of 1.16%, and a trading volume of 315,458 lots on September 18 [1] - The price range for industrial-grade sugar varies, with domestic prices reported as low as 1780 CNY/ton in Henan province [1] Group 2 - In August, China's sugar imports reached 830,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, with total imports from January to August at 2.61 million tons, up by 5.1% [2] - Brazil's sugar production in the second half of August was 3.872 million tons, an increase of 18.21% compared to the same period last year, with cane crushing volume at 50.061 million tons, up by 10.68% [2] Group 3 - The analysis indicates that Brazil's sugar production is accelerating, with expectations of high yields from Thailand and India in the upcoming season [3] - Domestic sugar inventory is currently low, but significant imports are expected before October, while new sugar supply will gradually enter the market as northern regions begin harvesting [3]

Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The raw sugar price continues to fluctuate, and the sugar price movement is mainly due to low - level technical fluctuations with the market lacking a clear direction. Attention should be paid to the upcoming production report of Brazil's central - southern region. The Zhengzhou sugar market is in an overall oscillating situation, with weak spot market, ample supply, and increasing supply pressure due to the listing of beet sugar. There are signs that industrial funds may shift from short to long [7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On Monday, the New York raw sugar futures fluctuated weakly. The main October contract closed down 0.75% at 15.88 cents per pound. The main December contract of London ICE white sugar futures closed up 0.06% at $466.00 per ton. The SR601 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5,529 yuan per ton, down 26 yuan or 0.47%, with an increase of 2,571 positions; the SR605 contract closed at 5,510 yuan per ton, down 22 yuan or 0.40%, with an increase of 4,002 positions. The No.10 contract of US sugar closed at 15.88 cents per pound, down 0.12 cents or 0.75%, with a decrease of 18,381 positions; the No.03 contract closed at 16.55 cents per pound, down 0.18 cents or 1.08%, with an increase of 8,041 positions [7] - **Spot Market**: The spot price in domestic production areas remained unchanged. The price of sugar in Nanning was reported at 5,940 yuan per ton, and that in Kunming was 5,770 yuan per ton [8] 2. Industry News - **Brazil's Sugar Production**: According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Technology Center (CTC), in August, the sugarcane yield in Brazil's central - southern region was 77.5 tons per hectare, slightly lower than 78.8 tons per hectare in the same period of 2024. The sugar content index (ATR) decreased by 2.9% from 148.4 kg per ton of sugarcane to 144.2 kg. From the start of the 2025/26 season until August, the average sugarcane yield in the central - southern region decreased by 8.2% year - on - year to 79.2 tons per hectare, compared with 86.3 tons per hectare in the previous season. The cumulative ATR was 129.7 kg per ton of sugarcane, compared with 133.2 kg in the same period last year. A survey by S&P Global Commodity Insights showed that the sugar production in the important central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of August was expected to increase by 17.3% to 3.84 million tons, the sugarcane crushing volume was expected to increase by 9.5% to 49.5 million tons, the sugar content per kilogram of sugarcane was expected to decrease by 4.1% to 149.48 kg per ton of sugarcane, and the ethanol production, including corn ethanol, was expected to decrease by 2.5% to 2.4 billion liters [9] - **India's Sugar Situation**: An Indian government official said that India, the world's second - largest sugar producer, will have sufficient surplus sugar stocks to allow sugar exports in the new sugar - crushing season starting on October 1. India's exports may suppress global sugar prices but support local sugar prices. The Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) reaffirmed its earlier forecast of 34.9 million tons of total sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot price trend, 2509 contract basis, SR9 - 1 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and holding positions of the top 20 seats of the Zhengzhou sugar main contract [12][14][16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the sugar prices in New York are declining due to an expected significant increase in supply from Brazil, the largest sugar producer, alongside concerns about demand from markets like China and Indonesia [1] - Covrig Analytics analyst Claudiu Covrig forecasts that Brazil's sugar production in the second half of August could reach 3.95 million tons, exceeding the previous estimates by the industry association Unica [1] - The New York raw sugar futures price fell by approximately 1% on Wednesday, marking the second consecutive day of decline [1][2] Group 2 - Covrig predicts that Brazil's sugar inventory may rise from 9.4 million tons at the end of August to 11.6 million tons by September 30, which will continue to exert pressure on the market [1] - Due to previously high imports and sufficient inventory, China's demand for sugar has significantly decreased [1] - India and Thailand have temporarily halted raw sugar imports to support local farmers, while both countries are expected to have a good harvest [1] - However, there are early signs of demand recovery in the Middle East and Africa, as sugar mills in these regions continue to procure raw materials from Brazil [1]

Core Viewpoint - India plans to resume sugar exports starting from the new crushing season in October 2025, which is expected to impact the international sugar market significantly [1][2]. Group 1: Production and Export Capacity - India, as the world's second-largest sugar producer, anticipates a sugar production of 34.9 million tons for the 2025/26 season, exceeding the domestic consumption demand of approximately 28.5 to 29 million tons [1]. - With an initial stock of 5 million tons, India will have sufficient capacity for sugar exports after meeting domestic needs and record ethanol production requirements [1][2]. Group 2: Market Impact - The resumption of sugar exports is expected to balance the domestic market in India and ensure minimum support prices for sugarcane farmers, while also increasing global sugar supply, potentially exerting downward pressure on current international sugar prices [1][2]. - Market participants are closely monitoring the specific export quota numbers that the Indian government will announce, with expectations that the return to the international sugar trade will create downward pressure on global sugar prices [2]. Group 3: Ethanol Production - India's ethanol production capacity is projected to exceed 4.8 billion liters, highlighting the country's strategic positioning in food security and energy sectors [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the latest data on the sugar market, including prices, spreads, and supply - demand situations both domestically and internationally, along with macro and industry news [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The raw sugar price is 16.55 cents per pound, down 0.12; the mainstream spot price is 5940 yuan per ton, unchanged; the futures main contract price is 5547 yuan per ton, down 2 [1] - **Spread Data**: The 15 - spread is 23 yuan per ton, unchanged; the 59 - spread is - 6 yuan per ton, up 1; the mainstream spot basis is 393 yuan per ton, up 2 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - India's monsoon precipitation has strengthened again. Brazil's exports have declined, with 374 tons exported in August (down 5% year - on - year) and 359 tons in July (down 5% year - on - year). Conab has lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast to 4450 tons from 4590 tons. China imported 74 tons of sugar in July, an increase of 32 tons [1] 3.3 Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that China's sugar production will be 1116 tons in the 24/25 season and 1120 tons in the 25/26 season, with consumption of 1580 tons and 1590 tons respectively, and imports of 500 tons in both seasons. As of May 31, 24/25 season production was 1116 tons (up 120 tons), sales were 811 tons (up 152 tons), and the sales rate was 72.7%. As of July 31, 24/25 season cumulative imports were 324 tons (down 34 tons). In the 25/26 season, the market expects a decline in Guangxi's sugar yield and an increase in production costs [2] 3.4 International Market - ISO forecasts a global sugar supply shortage of 23 tons in the 25/26 season and 488 tons in the 24/25 season. As of August 16, 25/26 season, Brazil's central - southern region had a 6.6 - percentage - point decline in cumulative sugarcane crushing, with 2289 tons of sugar produced (down 112 tons), and the MIX was 52.51% (up 3.37 percentage points). ISMA/NFCSF predicts India's 25/26 season sugar production to be 3490 tons (up 540 tons from 24/25). Thailand's 24/25 season production was 1008 tons (up 127 tons) [3] 3.5 Trend Intensity - The sugar trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugarcane production recovery exceeds expectations, putting pressure on the global sugar market. In China, new - season sugar production is expected to increase, and imports are high, but the spot price is stable due to thin inventory. Zhengzhou sugar futures are hovering at a low level [4]. - **Pulp**: As the peak season approaches, downstream demand for pulp replenishment may increase, but the magnitude is uncertain. The pulp market is stabilizing, and the recent listing of offset paper may support pulp futures. However, the upward drive for pulp prices is insufficient, and it is likely to trade in a low - level range [5]. - **Offset Paper**: The spot price of offset paper is stable, and there are expectations of improved demand in the peak season, which supports the futures price. But the fundamental situation is still weak, and the upward price movement may be limited [7][8]. - **Cotton**: The USDA September report has a slightly positive impact on the global cotton market, but the market is still under pressure. In China, there is a game between tight old - season supply and expected loose new - season supply, and cotton futures are likely to fluctuate within a range [9]. - **Apples**: The impact of the old - season apples on the market is coming to an end. The market is focused on the new - season production and quality. Apple futures are expected to trade within a range [10]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube futures price fell sharply. The inventory is being depleted, and the market is in a state of seeking a direction. Aggressive investors can short the 2601 contract, while cautious investors can hold a short 01 and long 05 spread position [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2601, use a range - trading strategy with a support range of 7500 - 7600 and a pressure range of 8500 - 8600. For Jujube 2601, consider shorting at high prices, with a support range of 10500 - 11000 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000 [19]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, stay on the sidelines. For Pulp 2511, take a bearish view within the range. For Offset Paper 2601, short on rebounds. For Cotton 2601, use a range - trading strategy [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market**: In July, China's fresh apple exports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. As of September, the cold - storage inventory decreased. Different institutions have different estimates of the new - season apple production. The spot price in Shandong is stable, and the market in the sales area is also stable [20][21][22]. - **Jujube Market**: The inventory of 36 sample points decreased slightly. The market in the sales area is light, and the mentality of holders is divided [23]. - **Sugar Market**: The USDA's September report shows the sugar production and inventory/consumption ratio in the US. The ICE 11 - sugar non - commercial net short position increased. The domestic sugar spot price is stable [24][26]. - **Pulp Market**: The decline in domestic spot and futures prices of bleached softwood pulp has suppressed import volume. The price of bleached hardwood pulp has been raised twice [29]. - **Offset Paper Market**: The market is basically stable. The trading atmosphere is weak, and prices in different regions are stable [30][31]. - **Cotton Market**: India's cotton production and import expectations have increased, and its ending inventory has risen. In the US, the sales and inventory data of clothing and fabric in July show certain trends [32][33]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market**: The closing prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Apple 2601, Jujube 2601, Sugar 2601, Pulp 2511, and Cotton 2601 are provided [34]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and cotton are presented [39]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific analysis content provided, only related charts are mentioned [51]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation The inter - month spreads of apples, jujubes, sugar, and cotton are in a state of range - bound trading, and the recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [59]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific analysis content provided, only related charts are mentioned [68]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation The warehouse receipt quantities, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton are given [88]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data - **Apple Options**: No specific data analysis provided, only related charts are mentioned [89]. - **Sugar Options**: No specific data analysis provided, only related charts are mentioned [96]. - **Cotton Options**: No specific data analysis provided, only related charts are mentioned [101].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the sugar market, presenting data on prices, spreads, and macro - industry news. It also provides production, consumption, and import forecasts for domestic and international markets, along with the trend strength of sugar [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - The current price of raw sugar is 16.67 cents per pound, with a year - on - year increase of 0.14 cents. The mainstream spot price is 5940 yuan per ton, unchanged year - on - year. The futures main contract price is 5549 yuan per ton, up 9 yuan year - on - year. The 91 spread is 0 yuan per ton, up 26 yuan year - on - year, and the 15 spread is 23 yuan per ton, unchanged year - on - year. The mainstream spot basis is 391 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan year - on - year [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - High - frequency information shows that India's monsoon precipitation has increased again. Brazil's exports have declined, with 374 million tons exported in August, a 5% year - on - year decrease, and 359 million tons in July, also a 5% year - on - year decrease. Conab has lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast to 4450 million tons from 4590 million tons. China imported 74 million tons of sugar in July, an increase of 32 million tons [1] 3.3 Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season will be 1116 million tons, consumption 1580 million tons, and imports 500 million tons. For the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 1120 million tons, consumption 1590 million tons, and imports 500 million tons. As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, the national sugar production was 1116 million tons, an increase of 120 million tons, and the cumulative sales were 811 million tons, an increase of 152 million tons, with a cumulative sales rate of 72.7%. As of the end of July, the cumulative sugar imports in the 24/25 season were 324 million tons, a decrease of 34 million tons. In the 25/26 season, the market expects a decline in the sugar yield and an increase in production costs in Guangxi [2] 3.4 International Market - ISO initially forecasts a global sugar supply shortage of 23 million tons in the 25/26 season and 488 million tons in the 24/25 season. As of August 16 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 6.6 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 2289 million tons, a decrease of 112 million tons, and the cumulative MIX was 52.51%, an increase of 3.37 percentage points year - on - year. ISMA/NFCSF predicts that India's total sugar production in the 25/26 season will be 3490 million tons, an increase of 540 million tons compared to the 24/25 season. Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 1008 million tons, an increase of 127 million tons [3] 3.5 Trend Strength - The trend strength of sugar is 1, indicating a neutral stance, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]